Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

[venture]

Welcome to June, typically the slowing down portion of the severe weather season. However, as we've seen this season has been a bit unusual with a busy April, slow May outside of the very beginning and very end, and the prospects for a busy June. Long range outlooks call for a warmer than normal and drier than normal summer, but we'll see. June also marks the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season even though we've already had 2 named storms. Oklahoma typically can experience the effects from landfalling systems as they move up from the Gulf.

This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Every now and then you'll see a reference for "the chat room" in the discussion. This is a live chat that will be active mainly during severe weather events in Oklahoma. To reach the chat room follow the link to: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/

Other Threads to Checkout
Severe Weather Trends: http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29677
Oklahoma 2012 Tornado Tracking List: http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29507


Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area Map Tulsa County Warning Area Map Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight

Severe Weather Information

Current Watches	Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD)

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1 Outlook	Tornado Outlook	Wind Outlook	Hail Outlook

Day 2 Outlook	Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Day 3 Probabilistic Outlook

Days 4 through 8 Outlook

Day 4	Day 5	Day 6	Day 7	Day 8

SPC Severe Weather Reports

Today Unfiltered Reports Click Here	Yesterday Unfiltered Reports Click Here

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

Day 1	Day 2	Days 3 to 8

References

• COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
• NWS Norman Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/
• Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
• Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
• West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
• Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
• Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
• Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
• TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
• Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
• NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
• NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/
• HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

[venture]

State Radar Images

WSR-88D Twin Lakes Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt Base Velocity	WSR-88D Frederick Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt Base Velocity
WSR-88D Vance AFB Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt Base Velocity	Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date. Phased Array Radar (Next Generation Test Bed) CASA Radar Deployment - SW Oklahoma
Multi-Radar Products Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)	Multi-Radar Products Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Composite

[venture]

State Satellite Images

Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 335
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST KANSAS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA
TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF RATON NEW MEXICO TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332...WW 333...WW 334...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SPREADING SEWD FROM CO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN CO AND NERN NM
AND TRACK SEWD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONT BACKED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD FUEL THE DEVELOPING
TSTMS. MID LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORTING STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN NONDESCRIPT. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE REGION
LIES BENEATH THE SWRN FLANK OF STRONGER NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WHICH...ATOP LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 50KT. THUS KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC REGIME WILL BE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. PRIMARY SEVERE
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS A HAIL FEW REPORTS AOA 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG WIND
SHIFT/OUTFLOW SITUATED FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LACK OF GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS
SHOULD KEEP TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33030.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (40%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

[venture]

Slight Risk for tomorrow has been extended roughly to just west of I-35 mainly south of I-40 except for the far western counties north of I-40.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN/SWRN OK...NWRN TX AND
TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS AND SERN CO...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC AND GREENLAND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE SWD EXTENDING TROUGH
OVER THE ERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY LATE
SAT/EARLY SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD THROUGH
THE ERN DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SUN. FARTHER W...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE DAY 1 WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.

...SWRN/WRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS/SERN CO...
MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SRN OK EXTENDING WWD TO A
TRIPLE POINT ATTENDANT DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM SWRN OK/ADJACENT
SERN TX PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A SYNOPTIC LOW LOCATED ALONG
THE NM/TX BORDER. THE WARM FRONT MAY INITIALLY BE IDENTIFIED AS A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF ONGOING TSTMS
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO OK AT THE START OF DAY 2. DESPITE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN TO ALONG AND S
OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8.5 C
PER KM/ SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOISTENING/SURFACE HEATING WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE 2000-3000 J
PER KG/.

DESPITE NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AIDING
IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKER FORCING
ALOFT WITH SWD EXTENT...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO SWRN OK/NWRN
TX SUGGESTS INHIBITION SHOULD BE REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY FOR AFTERNOON
TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG
THE WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY
LARGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATEST...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012303Z - 020100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW
335 INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FARTHER EAST
ACROSS WRN AND SWRN OK WHERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POST A MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW 335 INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/WRN NORTH TX WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE SUPERCELL
STORMS WERE CURRENTLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
UPDRAFTS/ROTATING STORMS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MUCH WEAKER
AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE ERN
OK/TX PANHANDLES. LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE LESS FAVORABLE
ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL OK AS CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LED
TO COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BAROCLINIC ZONE/THERMAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR WRN INTO SWRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION AND COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW...STORMS MAY
LATCH ON TO THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND POSE A HAIL AND STRONG WIND THREAT. THEREFORE...A NEW WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF 335 IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN
AERIAL EXTENSION OF WW 335 MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WFO OUN/S CWA AS WELL TO COVER THE POTENTIAL THREAT.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/01/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

[venture]

New watch does include the Western Metro area.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF ALVA
OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...

DISCUSSION...TSTM COMPLEX IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE
GAINING ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH...AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AN MCV.
THESE OBSERVATIONS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOIST/STRONG SSELY LOW
LVL FLOW PER VWP DATA...AND WEAK UPR IMPULSE IN MODERATE WNWLY MID
LVL FLOW...TOGETHER SUGGEST THE RISK FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND
PERHAPS SVR HAIL AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES MAINLY E TO ESE
THROUGH EARLY SUN.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (50%)

[venture]

HRRR has storms into Central OK by 3AM in a bow formation. So could see some good winds here if things hold together. Looks like it'll stick around until 10AM or so even though the main complex will be in AR/MO.

[venture]

Slight risk has been issued for Oklahoma north of I-40.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
OVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND FROM VA NWWD INTO OH. FARTHER N NEAR
THE UPPER LOW CENTER...RELATIVELY SMALL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FROM
PA INTO THE DELMARVA...AND COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT. CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION FROM PA/ERN OH SEWD ACROSS MD AND NRN VA.

TO THE W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIST ACROSS KS EARLY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SOME
ONGOING CONVECTION...AND THIS FEATURE MAY PERSIST SEWD INTO MO
DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN OVER WRN KS INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NEAR THE OK BORDER...WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG
A DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH WITH WIND SHIFT. MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
ALONG WITH HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON...FROM OK INTO NEB.

...KS...OK...NEB...MO...WRN IA...
EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KS...NERN OK...AND
MAYBE SWRN MO/NWRN AR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING.
WITH AT LEAST MID 60S F DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM...AND SWLY 850 MB
FLOW...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
HOWEVER..IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED.

LATER IN THE DAY...THE DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH WILL DESTABILIZE FROM NWRN
TX INTO NEB. CIN WILL ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SFC CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
MARGINAL...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...PRODUCING A
SMALL BUT FAVORABLY SHAPED HODOGRAPH FOR SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY FURTHER AUGMENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER ERN KS/NERN OK AND WRN MO WHERE SFC T/TD
SPREADS WILL BE LOWER AND EFFECTIVE SRH MIGHT BE
MAXIMIZED...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION.

OTHER EARLY CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OVER SD...SHIFTING SEWD WITH
THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WITHIN THE THETA-E AXIS. PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS HERE AS WELL WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

STORMS OVER KS/OK/MO MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
ERN OK...MO...AND NRN AR.

[venture]

Some decent wind with these, not much else.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 330 AM CDT


* AT 223 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CASHION TO VERDEN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OKLAHOMA CITY...NORMAN...EDMOND...MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...
DEL CITY...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...
CHOCTAW...NEWCASTLE...NOBLE...TUTTLE...NICHOLS HILLS...SPENCER...
PIEDMONT...
BLANCHARD AND JONES.


THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 148.
INTERSTATE 240 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16.
INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 131 AND 168.
INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND 150.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[venture]

Severe Risk Increasing Today...

Slight risk now covers nearly all of Oklahoma. Tornado risk increase to 5% over Central OK. 30% wind risk added over Central & Western OK. Also a 30% hatched area for significant hail now covers Central and Western OK.

...SRN PLAINS...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS WAS DISSIPATING WHILE SPREADING INTO MO/AR
LATE THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
ERN CO/NERN NM THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD WRN OK BY
04/00Z. CONSIDERABLE LEFT-OVER MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS NOTED
LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK.
HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH A SUBSTANTIAL
EML HAS OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BREACHED ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO
PORTIONS OF NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE SRN INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDINESS ACROSS KS SUCH THAT AN MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER
NWRN OK THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED
BY SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT AN UPSCALE EVOLVING MCS AFTER DARK. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND
INCLUDE THE RISK OF SIG HAIL /2 INCHES OR GREATER/ ACROSS NWRN/CNRTL
OK WITH BOTH INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND STORM MERGERS. HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED 5 PCT TOR PROBS SWD TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY
POSITION OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES. LATEST THINKING IS SEVERE MCS MAY SPREAD ESEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN OK THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK AS LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE
AFTER DARK.

[venture]

HRRR Run Down...

Scattered/Isolated storms and showers now through 3PM.

After 3PM supercells start to develop on the western OK/TX border. These will increase in coverage over the west and then will move east.

[venture]

CU is developing pretty quickly now out in the TX PH...



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 032025Z - 032200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL PARCELS NOW APPROACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED CU
DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM LIPSCOMB TO DONLEY COUNTIES IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH MATURATION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE COMPLEXES ACROSS
WRN/NRN OK LATER THIS EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING INTO THIS REGION AND
EXPECTED DIURNAL INCREASE IN LLJ THAT SHOULD FOCUS INTO CNTRL OK
AFTER DARK. INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED WITH
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF
SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS OK IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER AND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
REGARDLESS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/03/201

[Easy180]

I was hoping we could have maybe 20 days in a row with thunderstorms waking us all up...Thanks

[Snowman]

I was hoping we could have maybe 20 days in a row with thunderstorms waking us all up...Thanks

we could use the rain, mild thunderstorms are better than nothing

[venture]

we could use the rain, mild thunderstorms are better than nothing

Very true. We have broken the record for warm spring ever (http://www.kswo.com/story/18678411/o...warmest-spring) and are entering what is termed as a "flash drought". This is where things are just drying out exceptionally fast and could throw us right back into a longer term drought. The good news, chance of rain everyday for at least the next week. So that should make it more tolerable.

Storms are erupting over the panhandles right now. Waiting on the watch to go up.

[venture]

Tornado Watch is being issued.

WW 347 TORNADO KS OK TX 032340Z - 040700Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50S LBL/LIBERAL KS/ - 55NE CQB/CHANDLER OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /43S LBL - 17WNW TUL/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BEAVER BLAINE
CANADIAN CREEK CUSTER
DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
GRANT HARPER KAY
KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
MAJOR NOBLE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE ROGER MILLS WOODS
WOODWARD



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL
KANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 345...WW 346...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
INVOF WEAK W-E FRONT OVER NRN OK AND PERHAPS FAR SRN KS...AND INVOF
NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE.
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...AND
POSSIBLY BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE DRIFTING ESE FROM SW
KS. DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...AROUND 30
KTS...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. COUPLED
QUALITY OF MOISTURE...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS LATER TNGT/EARLY MON...WITH
PREDOMINANT MOTION EXPECTED TO BE SE TO POSSIBLY SSEWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

[venture]

I'll populate the previous post with the watch details once available. Latest HRRR run down...

Storms should begin to fire cross NW and North Central OK over the next 1-2 hours. They should quick form a broad area/line of storms from the OK/TX border to NE OK that will push South/Southeast over the body of Oklahoma. It should be at I-40 by 10PM tonight.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1

[OKCisOK4me]

Emily Sutton is way off in that case...stating morning storms coming in from Kansas.

[Easy180]

I'll populate the previous post with the watch details once available. Latest HRRR run down...

Storms should begin to fire cross NW and North Central OK over the next 1-2 hours. They should quick form a broad area/line of storms from the OK/TX border to NE OK that will push South/Southeast over the body of Oklahoma. It should be at I-40 by 10PM tonight.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1

Judging from that prediction not sure why Cleveland was left out of the watch...Not that I'm bitchin

[venture]

Pretty much sums up what is going on. Model guidance is completely off for the last 6-8 hours.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...SERN KS...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 347...

VALID 040246Z - 040345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REPLACEMENT OF WW 347 WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING
CONSIDERED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARING TO EXIST WITH RECENT
DEVELOPING TSTM CLUSTER OVER W-CNTRL OK.

DISCUSSION...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS RECENTLY INITIATED IN W-CNTRL
OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. WITHIN AN
ARCING BAND OF RICHER SURFACE DEW POINTS /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S/ PRESENT FROM S-CNTRL INTO W-CNTRL OK...THIS CLUSTER
SHOULD GROW UPSCALE. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE INTERFERENCE FROM CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WITH A DYING CLUSTER INVOF CDS ALONG WITH WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL WLYS OVERNIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH POOR MODEL GUIDANCE
PERFORMANCE THIS EVENING...BREEDS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS CLUSTER
SHOULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. ONE SCENARIO IS FOR A SLOW-MOVING E/SEWD
MOVING CLUSTER WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL. FARTHER NE...PERSISTENTLY DIVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
CONTINUE TO CURTAIL MORE ROBUST TSTM COVERAGE WITH A SHRINKING
CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS SERN KS.

[venture]

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347. WATCH NUMBER 347 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1005 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 348...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT
SILL OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347. WATCH NUMBER 347 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1005 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 348...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS FAILED TO BECOME SUSTAINED IN NW OK
EARLIER THIS EVE...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL
CONFLUENCE AND THE ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED W-E BOUNDARY. STORMS
HAVE...HOWEVER...RECENTLY FORMED IN THE REGION...MOST LIKELY ALONG
WRN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YET GROW INTO
AN MCS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER E AND TAP INCREASINGLY RICH LOW
LVL MOISTURE IN CNTRL/ERN PART OF STATE.

AREA VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT...IN CONTRAST TO STRENGTHENING
LLJ...MID/UPR LVL FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK OR FURTHER WEAKEN AS
AXIS OF UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER SW KS/NW OK CONTINUES ESEWD. WHILE
WEAKENING MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT MAY SUPPORT
LOCALLY DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31020.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (<5%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (<5%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

Mod (50%)

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM UNTIL
700 AM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT SMITH
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 348...WW 349...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE FORMED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER NE
OK...POSSIBLY RELATED TO INCREASED WAA/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. GIVEN DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY ABOVE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...AVAILABILITY OF RICH
MOISTURE...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND DESPITE MODEST DEEP
SHEAR.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 051920Z - 052045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF AN MCV
WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT RESULTING FROM
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER
MID LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS EXISTS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST KAMA VWP.
THIS SETUP MAY LEAD TO ORGANIZED WESTWARD-MOVING MULTICELL STORMS
POSING A RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTN.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE A
WW.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 06/05/2012


ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

[venture]

No major severe risk today, but heavy rain and isolated severe storms are still possible. All in all this is pretty good to help keep the drought conditions in check.

SPC's Take...

...SRN PLAINS...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN TX...WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
BANDS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CENTRAL OK.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FOCUSED MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WILL FOSTER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.