Widgets Magazine
Page 1 of 5 12345 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 102
  1. Weather Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Welcome to June, typically the slowing down portion of the severe weather season. However, as we've seen this season has been a bit unusual with a busy April, slow May outside of the very beginning and very end, and the prospects for a busy June. Long range outlooks call for a warmer than normal and drier than normal summer, but we'll see. June also marks the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season even though we've already had 2 named storms. Oklahoma typically can experience the effects from landfalling systems as they move up from the Gulf.

    This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

    Every now and then you'll see a reference for "the chat room" in the discussion. This is a live chat that will be active mainly during severe weather events in Oklahoma. To reach the chat room follow the link to: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/

    Other Threads to Checkout
    Severe Weather Trends: http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29677
    Oklahoma 2012 Tornado Tracking List: http://www.okctalk.com/showthread.php?t=29507


    Current Conditions
    Norman Warning Area Map Tulsa County Warning Area Map
    Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
    Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
    Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php
    Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
    Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight
    Severe Weather Information


    SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks

    *Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

    Day 1 Outlook Tornado Outlook Wind Outlook Hail Outlook

    Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Probabilistic Outlook

    Days 4 through 8 Outlook


    Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8

    SPC Severe Weather Reports



    SPC Fire Weather Outlooks

    *Click any above graphic to view discussion.*


    References




    Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

    Step 1) Go the main page: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
    Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
    Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
    Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
    Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

  2. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    State Radar Images
    WSR-88D Twin Lakes WSR-88D Frederick
    WSR-88D Vance AFB Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars
    Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date.
    Phased Array Radar (Next Generation Test Bed) CASA Radar Deployment - SW Oklahoma
    Multi-Radar Products
    Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)
    Multi-Radar Products
    Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Composite


  3. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    State Satellite Images

    Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image
    Image will appear blank overnight.
    Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image
    Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

    Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image
    Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.

  4. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 335
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    225 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    SOUTHWEST KANSAS
    NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
    WESTERN OKLAHOMA
    TEXAS PANHANDLE

    EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
    1000 PM CDT.

    SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
    ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
    SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
    HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
    ISOLATED TORNADOES

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
    STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES SOUTH
    SOUTHWEST OF RATON NEW MEXICO TO 5 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE
    OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
    ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 332...WW 333...WW 334...

    DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
    FRONT/WIND SHIFT SPREADING SEWD FROM CO THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
    STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN CO AND NERN NM
    AND TRACK SEWD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
    ALONG A RESIDUAL FRONT BACKED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
    CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD FUEL THE DEVELOPING
    TSTMS. MID LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORTING STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
    ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN NONDESCRIPT. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE REGION
    LIES BENEATH THE SWRN FLANK OF STRONGER NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
    WHICH...ATOP LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW...SHOULD RESULT IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
    AROUND 50KT. THUS KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC REGIME WILL BE MORE
    THAN ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. PRIMARY SEVERE
    IMPACTS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS A HAIL FEW REPORTS AOA 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A CHANCE
    FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG WIND
    SHIFT/OUTFLOW SITUATED FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL
    SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT LACK OF GREATER
    LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW DOMINANT STORMS
    SHOULD KEEP TORNADO POTENTIAL LIMITED.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 33030.

    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Low (20%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Low (5%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    Mod (60%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Mod (40%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    High (70%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Mod (60%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (90%)


  5. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Slight Risk for tomorrow has been extended roughly to just west of I-35 mainly south of I-40 except for the far western counties north of I-40.

    DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

    VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN/SWRN OK...NWRN TX AND
    TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS AND SERN CO...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC AND GREENLAND
    IS EXPECTED TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL
    CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES INTO SRN ONTARIO. THE SWD EXTENDING TROUGH
    OVER THE ERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT BY LATE
    SAT/EARLY SUN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD THROUGH
    THE ERN DAKOTAS MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO OFFSHORE THE MID
    ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z SUN. FARTHER W...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED
    ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A
    SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW LATE DAY 1 WILL TRACK
    THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.

    ...SWRN/WRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS/SERN CO...
    MODELS SUGGEST WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SRN OK EXTENDING WWD TO A
    TRIPLE POINT ATTENDANT DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD FROM SWRN OK/ADJACENT
    SERN TX PANHANDLE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH A SYNOPTIC LOW LOCATED ALONG
    THE NM/TX BORDER. THE WARM FRONT MAY INITIALLY BE IDENTIFIED AS A
    DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON THE SRN EXTENT OF ONGOING TSTMS
    OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO OK AT THE START OF DAY 2. DESPITE
    SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN TO ALONG AND S
    OF THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.5-8.5 C
    PER KM/ SPREADING EWD ATOP THE MOISTENING/SURFACE HEATING WILL
    SUPPORT A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE 2000-3000 J
    PER KG/.

    DESPITE NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT RISES...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK
    MIDLEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AIDING
    IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAKER FORCING
    ALOFT WITH SWD EXTENT...STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO SWRN OK/NWRN
    TX SUGGESTS INHIBITION SHOULD BE REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY FOR AFTERNOON
    TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG
    THE WARM FRONT INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
    INSTABILITY AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES...SUPERCELLS WILL
    BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY
    LARGE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/SWRN OK WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
    BE GREATEST...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

  6. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0603 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012

    AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN OK

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 012303Z - 020100Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

    SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW
    335 INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
    POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FARTHER EAST
    ACROSS WRN AND SWRN OK WHERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POST A MARGINAL
    WIND/HAIL THREAT.

    DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE SOUTH OF WW 335 INTO
    PORTIONS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/WRN NORTH TX WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHERE SUPERCELL
    STORMS WERE CURRENTLY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
    STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG
    UPDRAFTS/ROTATING STORMS FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER
    SOUTH TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MUCH WEAKER
    AND STORMS SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKEN.

    MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ACROSS THE ERN
    OK/TX PANHANDLES. LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE LESS FAVORABLE
    ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL OK AS CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LED
    TO COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND
    GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BAROCLINIC ZONE/THERMAL
    BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR WRN INTO SWRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO
    WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
    DESTABILIZATION AND COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW...STORMS MAY
    LATCH ON TO THIS BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS
    AND POSE A HAIL AND STRONG WIND THREAT. THEREFORE...A NEW WATCH MAY
    BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF 335 IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AN
    AERIAL EXTENSION OF WW 335 MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    WFO OUN/S CWA AS WELL TO COVER THE POTENTIAL THREAT.

    ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/01/2012


    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

  7. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    New watch does include the Western Metro area.



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 343
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

    EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
    UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

    WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
    WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
    STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF ALVA
    OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
    UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 341...WW 342...

    DISCUSSION...TSTM COMPLEX IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE APPEARS TO BE
    GAINING ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH...AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AN MCV.
    THESE OBSERVATIONS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOIST/STRONG SSELY LOW
    LVL FLOW PER VWP DATA...AND WEAK UPR IMPULSE IN MODERATE WNWLY MID
    LVL FLOW...TOGETHER SUGGEST THE RISK FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND
    PERHAPS SVR HAIL AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES MAINLY E TO ESE
    THROUGH EARLY SUN.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 28025.

    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Low (<5%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Low (<2%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    Mod (30%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Low (10%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    Low (20%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Low (<5%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    Mod (50%)


  8. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    HRRR has storms into Central OK by 3AM in a bow formation. So could see some good winds here if things hold together. Looks like it'll stick around until 10AM or so even though the main complex will be in AR/MO.

  9. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Slight risk has been issued for Oklahoma north of I-40.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1113 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

    VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY
    INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

    ...SYNOPSIS...
    A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
    COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT
    OVER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND FROM VA NWWD INTO OH. FARTHER N NEAR
    THE UPPER LOW CENTER...RELATIVELY SMALL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR FROM
    PA INTO THE DELMARVA...AND COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT. CYCLONIC LOW
    LEVEL FLOW AROUND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER SRN NEW
    ENGLAND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
    LOW TOPPED CONVECTION FROM PA/ERN OH SEWD ACROSS MD AND NRN VA.

    TO THE W...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN
    RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
    ACROSS THE PLAINS...BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB
    TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 C. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK UPPER
    SHORTWAVE WILL EXIST ACROSS KS EARLY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO SOME
    ONGOING CONVECTION...AND THIS FEATURE MAY PERSIST SEWD INTO MO
    DURING THE DAY.

    MEANWHILE...A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD DEEPEN OVER WRN KS INTO THE
    OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NEAR THE OK BORDER...WITH STRONG HEATING ALONG
    A DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH WITH WIND SHIFT. MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
    ALONG WITH HEATING AND AFOREMENTIONED COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD A
    STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON...FROM OK INTO NEB.

    ...KS...OK...NEB...MO...WRN IA...
    EARLY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KS...NERN OK...AND
    MAYBE SWRN MO/NWRN AR ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION FROM LAST EVENING.
    WITH AT LEAST MID 60S F DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM...AND SWLY 850 MB
    FLOW...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
    HOWEVER..IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED.

    LATER IN THE DAY...THE DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH WILL DESTABILIZE FROM NWRN
    TX INTO NEB. CIN WILL ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SFC CONVERGENCE
    SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
    MARGINAL...WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...PRODUCING A
    SMALL BUT FAVORABLY SHAPED HODOGRAPH FOR SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS
    CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. RESIDUAL
    OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY FURTHER AUGMENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WITH A FEW
    TORNADOES POSSIBLE OVER ERN KS/NERN OK AND WRN MO WHERE SFC T/TD
    SPREADS WILL BE LOWER AND EFFECTIVE SRH MIGHT BE
    MAXIMIZED...DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION.

    OTHER EARLY CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OVER SD...SHIFTING SEWD WITH
    THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WITHIN THE THETA-E AXIS. PROFILES
    WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS HERE AS WELL WITH LARGE
    HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

    STORMS OVER KS/OK/MO MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
    ERN OK...MO...AND NRN AR.

  10. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Some decent wind with these, not much else.

    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    226 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012


    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
    CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
    GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
    EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
    MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
    OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


    * UNTIL 330 AM CDT


    * AT 223 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
    A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
    IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
    EXTENDING FROM CASHION TO VERDEN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.


    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
    OKLAHOMA CITY...NORMAN...EDMOND...MIDWEST CITY...MOORE...
    DEL CITY...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...THE VILLAGE...WARR ACRES...
    CHOCTAW...NEWCASTLE...NOBLE...TUTTLE...NICHOLS HILLS...SPENCER...
    PIEDMONT...
    BLANCHARD AND JONES.


    THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
    INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 97 AND 148.
    INTERSTATE 240 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16.
    INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 131 AND 168.
    INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 83 AND 150.


    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

  11. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Severe Risk Increasing Today...

    Slight risk now covers nearly all of Oklahoma. Tornado risk increase to 5% over Central OK. 30% wind risk added over Central & Western OK. Also a 30% hatched area for significant hail now covers Central and Western OK.

    ...SRN PLAINS...
    REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS WAS DISSIPATING WHILE SPREADING INTO MO/AR
    LATE THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DECAYING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
    THERE IS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OBSERVED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
    ERN CO/NERN NM THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ESEWD TOWARD WRN OK BY
    04/00Z. CONSIDERABLE LEFT-OVER MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS NOTED
    LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK.
    HOWEVER...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGH
    PLAINS FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH A SUBSTANTIAL
    EML HAS OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
    HEATING WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
    BREACHED ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLE INTO
    PORTIONS OF NWRN TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

    THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE SRN INFLUENCE OF THE
    AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDINESS ACROSS KS SUCH THAT AN MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER
    NWRN OK THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY
    WILL DEVELOP WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED
    BY SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN
    ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT AN UPSCALE EVOLVING MCS AFTER DARK. FOR THIS
    REASON HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND...AND
    INCLUDE THE RISK OF SIG HAIL /2 INCHES OR GREATER/ ACROSS NWRN/CNRTL
    OK WITH BOTH INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND STORM MERGERS. HAVE
    ALSO SHIFTED 5 PCT TOR PROBS SWD TO BETTER REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY
    POSITION OF WEAK SFC BOUNDARY THAT COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    COUPLE OF TORNADOES. LATEST THINKING IS SEVERE MCS MAY SPREAD ESEWD
    ACROSS MUCH OF NRN OK THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
    PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK AS LLJ INCREASES INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE
    AFTER DARK.

  12. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    HRRR Run Down...

    Scattered/Isolated storms and showers now through 3PM.

    After 3PM supercells start to develop on the western OK/TX border. These will increase in coverage over the west and then will move east.

  13. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    CU is developing pretty quickly now out in the TX PH...



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0325 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

    AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/OK PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 032025Z - 032200Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

    SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM
    THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW
    HOURS. WATCH WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

    DISCUSSION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
    PLAINS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NEAR-DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
    WITH RESULTANT LOW LEVEL PARCELS NOW APPROACHING THEIR CONVECTIVE
    TEMPERATURES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED CU
    DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT CURRENTLY
    STRETCHES FROM LIPSCOMB TO DONLEY COUNTIES IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
    THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
    HOURS WITH MATURATION INTO ONE OR MORE SEVERE COMPLEXES ACROSS
    WRN/NRN OK LATER THIS EVENING. THIS EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A
    WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MIGRATING INTO THIS REGION AND
    EXPECTED DIURNAL INCREASE IN LLJ THAT SHOULD FOCUS INTO CNTRL OK
    AFTER DARK. INITIAL TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH BASED WITH
    A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF
    SUPERCELL-LIKE STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM
    ACROSS OK IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER AND GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
    LOW LEVEL SHEAR A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
    REGARDLESS...VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
    DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH MCS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.

    ..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/03/201

  14. #14

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    I was hoping we could have maybe 20 days in a row with thunderstorms waking us all up...Thanks

  15. #15

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Easy180 View Post
    I was hoping we could have maybe 20 days in a row with thunderstorms waking us all up...Thanks
    we could use the rain, mild thunderstorms are better than nothing

    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version. 

Name:	ok_dm.jpg 
Views:	95 
Size:	46.6 KB 
ID:	1782  

  16. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowman View Post
    we could use the rain, mild thunderstorms are better than nothing
    Very true. We have broken the record for warm spring ever (http://www.kswo.com/story/18678411/o...warmest-spring) and are entering what is termed as a "flash drought". This is where things are just drying out exceptionally fast and could throw us right back into a longer term drought. The good news, chance of rain everyday for at least the next week. So that should make it more tolerable.

    Storms are erupting over the panhandles right now. Waiting on the watch to go up.

  17. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Tornado Watch is being issued.

    WW 347 TORNADO KS OK TX 032340Z - 040700Z
    AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
    50S LBL/LIBERAL KS/ - 55NE CQB/CHANDLER OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /43S LBL - 17WNW TUL/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
    MAX TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

    ALFALFA BEAVER BLAINE
    CANADIAN CREEK CUSTER
    DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD
    GRANT HARPER KAY
    KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN
    MAJOR NOBLE OKFUSKEE
    OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
    PAYNE ROGER MILLS WOODS
    WOODWARD



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    640 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
    WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
    NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

    EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
    200 AM CDT.

    SEVERAL TORNADOES
    WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
    ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
    WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL
    ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

    THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
    MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL
    KANSAS TO 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
    UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

    REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
    TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 345...WW 346...

    DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
    INVOF WEAK W-E FRONT OVER NRN OK AND PERHAPS FAR SRN KS...AND INVOF
    NW-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE.
    ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...AND
    POSSIBLY BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE DRIFTING ESE FROM SW
    KS. DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST...AROUND 30
    KTS...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. COUPLED
    QUALITY OF MOISTURE...STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW LVL
    DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
    VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD
    EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS LATER TNGT/EARLY MON...WITH
    PREDOMINANT MOTION EXPECTED TO BE SE TO POSSIBLY SSEWD.

    AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
    SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
    WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
    600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Mod (40%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Low (20%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    High (80%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Mod (30%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    High (80%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Mod (30%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (>95%)


  18. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    I'll populate the previous post with the watch details once available. Latest HRRR run down...

    Storms should begin to fire cross NW and North Central OK over the next 1-2 hours. They should quick form a broad area/line of storms from the OK/TX border to NE OK that will push South/Southeast over the body of Oklahoma. It should be at I-40 by 10PM tonight.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1

  19. #19

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Emily Sutton is way off in that case...stating morning storms coming in from Kansas.

  20. #20

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by venture79 View Post
    I'll populate the previous post with the watch details once available. Latest HRRR run down...

    Storms should begin to fire cross NW and North Central OK over the next 1-2 hours. They should quick form a broad area/line of storms from the OK/TX border to NE OK that will push South/Southeast over the body of Oklahoma. It should be at I-40 by 10PM tonight.

    http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1
    Judging from that prediction not sure why Cleveland was left out of the watch...Not that I'm bitchin

  21. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    Pretty much sums up what is going on. Model guidance is completely off for the last 6-8 hours.

    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0946 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

    AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...SERN KS...NWRN TX

    CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 347...

    VALID 040246Z - 040345Z

    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES.

    SUMMARY...REPLACEMENT OF WW 347 WITH A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING
    CONSIDERED WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARING TO EXIST WITH RECENT
    DEVELOPING TSTM CLUSTER OVER W-CNTRL OK.

    DISCUSSION...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS RECENTLY INITIATED IN W-CNTRL
    OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED. WITHIN AN
    ARCING BAND OF RICHER SURFACE DEW POINTS /CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S
    TO LOWER 70S/ PRESENT FROM S-CNTRL INTO W-CNTRL OK...THIS CLUSTER
    SHOULD GROW UPSCALE. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE INTERFERENCE FROM CONVECTIVE
    OUTFLOW WITH A DYING CLUSTER INVOF CDS ALONG WITH WEAKENING
    MID-LEVEL WLYS OVERNIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH POOR MODEL GUIDANCE
    PERFORMANCE THIS EVENING...BREEDS LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS CLUSTER
    SHOULD ULTIMATELY EVOLVE. ONE SCENARIO IS FOR A SLOW-MOVING E/SEWD
    MOVING CLUSTER WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
    WIND/HAIL. FARTHER NE...PERSISTENTLY DIVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
    CONTINUE TO CURTAIL MORE ROBUST TSTM COVERAGE WITH A SHRINKING
    CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS SERN KS.

  22. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347. WATCH NUMBER 347 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
    AFTER 1005 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 348...



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 349
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1005 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

    EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM UNTIL
    400 AM CDT.

    WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
    WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
    STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
    NORTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT
    SILL OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
    ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
    TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347. WATCH NUMBER 347 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
    AFTER 1005 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 348...

    DISCUSSION...TSTMS/SUPERCELLS FAILED TO BECOME SUSTAINED IN NW OK
    EARLIER THIS EVE...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL
    CONFLUENCE AND THE ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED W-E BOUNDARY. STORMS
    HAVE...HOWEVER...RECENTLY FORMED IN THE REGION...MOST LIKELY ALONG
    WRN EDGE OF STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YET GROW INTO
    AN MCS AS THE STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER E AND TAP INCREASINGLY RICH LOW
    LVL MOISTURE IN CNTRL/ERN PART OF STATE.

    AREA VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT...IN CONTRAST TO STRENGTHENING
    LLJ...MID/UPR LVL FLOW LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK OR FURTHER WEAKEN AS
    AXIS OF UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER SW KS/NW OK CONTINUES ESEWD. WHILE
    WEAKENING MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY LIMIT STORM
    ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE COOLING
    BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT MAY SUPPORT
    LOCALLY DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 31020.

    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Low (<5%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Low (<2%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    Mod (30%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Low (20%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    Mod (30%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Low (<5%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    Mod (50%)


  23. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 350
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1125 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
    NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

    EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1125 PM UNTIL
    700 AM CDT.

    SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
    WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
    STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF
    CHANDLER OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT SMITH
    ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
    ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 348...WW 349...

    DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE FORMED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST HALF HOUR OVER NE
    OK...POSSIBLY RELATED TO INCREASED WAA/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
    CONTINUED ESE MOTION OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. GIVEN DEGREE OF
    BUOYANCY ABOVE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER...AVAILABILITY OF RICH
    MOISTURE...AND LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...STORMS
    WILL BE CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND DESPITE MODEST DEEP
    SHEAR.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 29030.

    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Low (10%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Low (<2%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    Mod (30%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Low (10%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    Mod (60%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Low (20%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (80%)


  24. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0220 PM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012

    AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND TX PANHANDLE

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

    VALID 051920Z - 052045Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

    SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
    REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
    WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
    SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

    DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF AN MCV
    WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
    PLAINS. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT RESULTING FROM
    DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER
    MID LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS EXISTS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST KAMA VWP.
    THIS SETUP MAY LEAD TO ORGANIZED WESTWARD-MOVING MULTICELL STORMS
    POSING A RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    AFTN.

    THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE A
    WW.

    ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 06/05/2012


    ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

  25. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

    No major severe risk today, but heavy rain and isolated severe storms are still possible. All in all this is pretty good to help keep the drought conditions in check.

    SPC's Take...

    ...SRN PLAINS...
    STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
    MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN TX...WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
    BANDS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CENTRAL OK.
    LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FOCUSED MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG LOW LEVEL
    CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WILL FOSTER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
    AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND
    POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 141
    Last Post: 06-01-2012, 08:05 AM
  2. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2012
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 399
    Last Post: 05-01-2012, 10:00 AM
  3. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - March 2012
    By Tydude in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 91
    Last Post: 03-30-2012, 08:03 PM
  4. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 155
    Last Post: 06-29-2011, 05:47 AM
  5. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2011
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 377
    Last Post: 06-01-2011, 12:33 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO