Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2012

[Kaye]

How much rain can we anticipate here in OKC?

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OK...ERN TX PANHANDLE...N-CNTRL
TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061840Z - 062045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BRIEF/MARGINAL SVR THREAT MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A LOW/MCV IS LOCATED NNE OF CHILDRESS TX
PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHILE A DIFFUSE SFC
FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK AND FARTHER
ESE INTO NERN TX. ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
/1/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF THE DENSER ZONE OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE MCV.../2/ THE
FRONT/TROUGH...AND /3/ CONVERGENT BANDS AROUND THE SFC REFLECTION OF
THE MCV WILL REMAIN THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AMIDST THE MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK...VWP DATA FROM TWIN LAKES/FREDERICK RADARS
SUGGEST SOME MODESTLY ENHANCED 2-4-KM-AGL FLOW OVER THE ERN FRINGES
OF THE MCV -- I.E. SSWLY TO SLY AT 20-25 KT -- WHICH MAY PROMOTE
STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS. THIS WOULD BE THE RESULT OF VERTICAL MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT PROCESSES IN DOWNDRAFTS...AUGMENTED BY WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES OWING TO PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES IN MANY AREAS
PER GPS DATA. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SVR WIND THREAT MAY
EXIST...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHERE AREAS OF
INSOLATION ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/STRONGER DCAPE. IF A LARGE NUMBER OF STORM MERGERS OCCUR WITH
LOCAL UPSCALE GROWTH...STORM CLUSTERS COULD PROPAGATE ESEWD/SEWD
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE GIVEN MODEST ESELY/SELY INFLOW BELOW 0.5 KM
AGL. MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT. ALSO OF NOTE...WITH PW VALUES BEING 125-150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE STORMS.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2012


ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA...

[venture]

How much rain can we anticipate here in OKC?

Depends on where you are. Some people will see an inch plus others only a light shower. Heaviest rain band right now is from Southern Pittsburgh county NE through Holdenville, Shawnee, Chandler, Stillwater, Enid, and Alva. Another patch from Norman through Pauls Valley. Then some severe storms just across the river in North Texas moving north. These seem to be on the same access that storms from Hobart to Arnett are forming on.

[Kaye]

Okay. It looked to me like the storms to the south of OKC were weakening as they move north and maybe moving a bit to the east as well.

[venture]

I figured I'll get this update done tonight since the hypemen are going already out there about Monday. So I'll jump right in...

System that has been giving us a nice break from...June...is moving away and we'll get back to typical weather. Things start to change though on Sunday with the next storm system moving out. Instability will begin to increase rapidly and much of the state will be very unstable on Sunday. However, capping should be extremely tough and storm development should be restricted to well north of Oklahoma. So Monday...

NAM only goes through Monday AM, so this is all GFS at this point for now. A pretty potent storm system will be moving into the plains. The main energy is going to be well North into ND, SD and MN. However, we'll see a part of it skirt the state as well. Moisture looks really good and a dryline appears to be moving into SW OK late in the day. Temps out there could hit 100 behind the dryline and near 90 ahead of it. Instability looks very stout with CAPE over 5000 j/kg over much of NE to South Central and parts of SW OK. CIN values will remain pretty high through Mid Afternoon in the area of highest instability will be will gradually diminish. This would allow for a more favorable environment for storms to get going. This would look like a typical high end day except for a few things.

1) GFS doesn't break out any precip west of I-35, and only isolated areas over SE and far NE OK.
2) Surface winds look pretty lousy.
3) Most of the upper air energy is well north.

There are people calling it a classic setup for strong tornadoes and such, but honestly right now I'm not buying it. Too many conditional issues present to really get amped up over it. Probably still a candidate for a slight risk, but mostly east of I-35 as of right now.

TUESDAY...
Things will remain very unstable generally along and south of I-40. Storm chances look better for the Southern Half of Oklahoma this day. Good candidate for a slight risk day.

WEDNESDAY...
Rinse repeat of Tuesday, just maybe a bit further north.

THURSDAY...
Storm chances continue, mainly east of I-35 where conditions will be best.

FRIDAY...
More instability but increasing cap, low storm chances.

That's it for now. Things could remain stormy beyond a week out, but we'll get more into that later.

[venture]

Slight Risk today and tomorrow for portions of Oklahoma...

TODAY - North Central and NW OK
...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST INTO KS/OK...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED EML AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG CAP HAS BEEN ADVECTED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
MID MO VALLEY ON THE SRN/SERN PERIPHERY OF N-CNTRL CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. AS SUCH...INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG NRN EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT /AND
PERHAPS PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/ OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT WILL
ERODE WEAKER CAP. SUBSEQUENT SWWD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG FRONT
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF KS/OK WILL LIKELY OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OWING TO STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND INCREASED DIABATIC WARMING WILL YIELD A
MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO 2500-3500
J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD /AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
SHEAR/ WILL LAG WARM SECTOR TO THE W. HOWEVER...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
DO SUGGEST THAT THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /I.E.
30-40 KT/ WILL COINCIDE WITH SURFACE FRONT...THOUGH ORIENTATION OF
SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED LARGELY PARALLEL WITH FRONT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
STORMS MAY TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITHIN THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO AFTER INITIATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG LLJ AXIS.

...SWRN OK INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX...

A VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. TEMPERATURES OF 100-105+ F/ IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF DRYLINE AND NWRN TX THERMAL LOW THIS
AFTERNOON. AND WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THE
STRONG INSOLATION AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000-4000+ J/KG...SETUP WILL
FOSTER INTENSE UP/DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.


TOMORROW - Roughly Along and east of I-44

...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
WILL PROGRESS EWD MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY
WITH A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOCATED FROM SRN MO SWD
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU AND WWD INTO ERN OK.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT SPRINGFIELD MO AND LITTLE ROCK AR AT 21Z
MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2500 TO 4000 J/KG SUGGESTING
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT ABOVE 850 MB IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO PRODUCE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ROTATING
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BETTER ORGANIZED MULTICELLS COULD ALSO
PRODUCE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

[venture]

Monday
Risk Level: Slight
Threats: Hail 2+ (Enhanced 15%), Wind (15%), Tornado (2%)
Locations: Central & Eastern Oklahoma along and south of I-44 from OK/MO to OKC and then along and east of I-35 to OK/TX.

...SYNOPSIS...
A GENERALLY LESS AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CONUS TODAY. THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ONTARIO AND THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING FROM MN INTO NRN
ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE SERN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE CANADA/NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN WI SSWWD THROUGH ERN
IA...ERN KS...TO SWRN OK AND THEN WSWWD TO TX SOUTH PLAINS AT 12Z
TODAY. GIVEN WEAK HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY...THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED MAKE SLOW PROGRESS E AND S
TODAY...THOUGH GREATER EWD MOVEMENT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

...SRN MO/AR/CENTRAL-ERN OK/NERN TX...
RICH MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TODAY...S OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C PER KM/ FROM TX/OK INTO AR
WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J PER
KG/...WITH VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG EXPECTED INTO SRN MO. DESPITE
THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT...A DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM N-S...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION.

INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SRN MO THROUGH FAR
SERN KS AND NERN OK /ALONG THE NERN-ERN EXTENT OF A SRN PLAINS
CAP/...AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD REACHING THESE AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON /PRIOR TO 20Z/. BY 00Z...TSTMS SHOULD HAVE SPREAD SSEWD
INTO MUCH OF ERN OK AND CENTRAL AR...WITH THE WRN EXTENT OF STRONGER
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM OKLAHOMA CITY
SWD TO THE RED RIVER. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE FROM W-E
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE MIXED STORM
MODES /MULTICELL...SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS/. DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX INTO MUCH OF AR...WITH SOME CONTINUED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.


Tuesday
Risk Level: Slight
Threats: Hail and Wind
Locations: South Central, Southwest, and West Central Oklahoma...generally south of a line from Durant to Pauls Valley to Clinton to Arnett.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES FROM ONTARIO/LK
SUPERIOR INTO QUEBEC. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL
ENVELOP THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE PROGGED TO
CROSS NRN WY INTO WRN SD BY TUE EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EWD IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY. TRAILING
PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE RED
RIVER/N TX REGION...LIKELY BEING MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR NW OF THE BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW INCREASES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE BLACK HILLS...
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY REMAINS LIKELY WITH MULTIPLE EPISODES OF
SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE VARIES ON WHETHER TSTM CLUSTERS WILL
BE ONGOING AT 12Z/TUE ALONG WITH SPATIAL LOCATION /FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX/...NEAR AND N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.
STILL...ROBUST HEATING S OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S SHOULD YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO AOA 2500 J/KG. ANY MORNING TSTM CLUSTERS
WOULD LIKELY INTENSIFY...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN NM AS LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW PERSISTS. ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WLYS...SEMI-ORGANIZED MCS/S WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
APPEAR PROBABLE WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. HAVE
CONSIDERED ADDING ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES CENTERED OVER
NWRN TX...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY BASED ON DIFFERENCES DEPICTED IN
GUIDANCE...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR WHEN THESE MESOSCALE
DETAILS MAY BECOME MORE CLEAR.

FARTHER N...A RIBBON OF 40S TO LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
DRAWN NWD TOWARDS THE BLACK HILLS. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY MAY REMAIN
MODEST...UPSLOPE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK IMPULSE SHOULD
COMPENSATE...YIELDING SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH A BELT OF NEAR 40 KT WLYS AT 500
MB...THE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND. A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS SHOULD
EVOLVE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS AS THE LLJ
INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RISKS OF WIND/HAIL.

[venture]

Will touch more on the severe weather chances tomorrow as the day progresses. SPC has a decent summary of it all. It just depends on how fast the front gets through tomorrow.

One thing I did want to point out about the models is the strong single of the typical summer "ridge o' death" setting up about 10 days out. Looks like it will get firmly established over the region and push the main storm tracks well north. With it are signals of temps staying well into the 100s for afternoon highs. Nothing I would lock in just yet since run to run consistency of this solution isn't good right now.

[Roadhawg]

ugh... too early for those temps. I was in Ft Worth over the weekend and it was 90 there by noon.

[venture]

Norman / Max Westheimer Lat: 35.25 Lon: -97.47 Elev: 1184 Last Update on Jun 11, 1:35 pm CDT
[table][TR][TD="class: big, align: center"]Partly Cloudy 90 °F (32 °C)		Humidity: 71 % Wind Speed: N 7 MPH Barometer: 29.90" Dewpoint: 79 °F (26 °C) Heat Index: 106 °F (41 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. More Local Wx:

[venture]

Wanted to point out the Dewpoint right now. I can't remember the last time I saw a dewpoint near 80 degrees outside of the tropics.

[ou48A]

It’s an unusually high DP…… And it’s with a north wind too.

[venture]

Severe weather risk today is generally along and south/east of I-44. Monster hail and damaging downbursts are the big threat for today. Extreme instability right now from the OKC area SW to Altus. CAPE values are up around 5000-5500 j/kg. Best area of convergence is between OKC and TUL and will continues to sag south. We are seeing some CU develop over the area right now, mix in with the existing cloud deck. HRRR pinpoints development just east of the Metro area by 4-6PM and then additional isolated development in Southern OK.

Right now still going to be a close call if OKC gets anything to help break some of the heat outside.

[Jesseda]

It is so humid outside. My co-workers are saying it feels like tornado weather, lol we are no weather experts, but it just that feeling. Wonder if okc is going to get severe weather today?

[venture]

We are looking at a few showers trying to go up along an outflow boundary moving from Pawnee to Tulsa to Okmulgee and back east into AR. This is from the large line of storms out east. The frontal boundary is just south of a Pague > Shawnee > Purcell > Rush Springs > Lawton line right now.

CU development is well north of the boundary though too, so not impossible for some storms there. However, the cap is very tough today and it might not be able to break except for a few isolated cases southeast of OKC. If we had a strong storm system coming through it would definitely be an exceptional day, but we don't so we get to sweat and feel miserable as OG&E takes all of our money.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112059Z - 112230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND WRN AR. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS IF CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME CONSIDERABLE CAPPING CURRENTLY IN
PLACE.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERSECTION ACROSS NERN OK...IN CONCERT WITH VERY HOT AND LOCALLY
EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO AT LEAST 3000 J PER KG/...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT STORM INITIATION IS BEING INHIBITED
BY 1) VERY WARM AIR ALOFT ACTING TO KEEP AIR MASS CAPPED...AND 2)
LACK OF GREATER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST GUIDANCE PROVIDES MIXED SIGNALS ON WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WITH RAPID REFRESH INDICATING STORM INITIATION
BY 00Z...NAM SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT...AND 18Z HRRR
SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NWRN AR AND ERN OK IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
MODEST WLY FLOW AROUND 30KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF STORM DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO
OCCUR.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/11/2012

[venture]

Starting to see some development in southern Pontotoc County between Stonewall and Roff. This is right along the front and is probably being pushed up from the outflow boundary now intersecting it.

[venture]

Cap has weakened enough and storms have started to develop. Main area is going to be along the front which is running from west o Leon in far western Love County, to Spring to Sulphur, to Stonewall, to McAlester.

Storm in Western Love/SW Carter counties is borderline severe right now with 1.3" hail possible.

[venture]

Storms in Coal and E Murray/NW Johnston are now approaching severe levels. HRRR is showing this development pretty well. It also is hinting at additional development behind the front up through the far southern sections of the Metro area (Norman/Purcell).

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS


OKC005-013-019-023-029-061-067-069-077-079-085-095-099-121-123-
127-120900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0377.120612T0225Z-120612T0900Z/


OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE


ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL
JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LATIMER
LE FLORE LOVE MARSHALL
MURRAY PITTSBURG PONTOTOC
PUSHMATAHA



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
400 AM CDT.

WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
POTEAU OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 374...WW 375...WW 376...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS IN N TX WILL LIKELY SPREAD ENEWD INTO S
CENTRAL OK...ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT INTO E CENTRAL/SE OK. A RESERVOIR OF
STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. THUS...THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER/...AS WELL AS
DAMAGING GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (<2%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)

[venture]

Marginal severe storm in Garvin and far southern McClain is starting to weaken a bit. It is pushing an outflow boundary north that will give us southerly winds for a bit. We could see additional development right behind it but looks like the main complex is starting to sag SE finally. Look for a good dumping of rain if you anything pops up overhead. A lot of moisture out there it play off of.

[Roadhawg]

It is so humid outside. My co-workers are saying it feels like tornado weather, lol we are no weather experts, but it just that feeling. Wonder if okc is going to get severe weather today?

It's humid enough I put the top of my jeep up so I could run the AC

[Roadhawg]

Right at 90 for the next several days.... Not sure what the extended is like.

[venture]

Extended looks pretty dry but GFS is standing firm for the last several runs on bringing a front through next Thursday/Friday.

[venture]

Slight risk brought in today for roughly the western 1/3rd of Oklahoma for a large hail threat.

HRRR still working to get a handle on things. The 14Z run has storms firing around 1-3PM today over Eastern OK and moving back west over Central section. Then around the same time has storms develop out west in the TX PH approach W OK by 8PM. The 15Z HRRR has storms firing out in W OK by 1-3PM with nothing out east. The Rapid Refresh model is sort of a mix of the two HRRR runs...with the activity in the TX PH out west eventually getting into W OK later and also the chance for some east to west moving storms developing over SE OK.

Latest visible has some light CU development in SE OK with what looks like a weak outflow area from the dying complex over NE TX. Then it looks like a couple bands of clouds over W OK have formed up as well.


...MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN PLAINS...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLOCATION OF AN EML WITH LOWEST
100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 12-15 G/KG ACROSS WARM SECTOR WHICH
WILL YIELD A MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000+ J/KG. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTIPLE
CLUSTERS/MCSS TONIGHT.

MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...THOUGH
FORECAST KINEMATIC PROFILES DO INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT...RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KT. THE
MARGINAL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COMPENSATED FOR BY THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE AS THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE
MODE WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
EXPECT AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EVOLVING TSTM CLUSTERS/MCSS.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389...WW 390...WW
391...WW 392...WW 393...

DISCUSSION...TWO LINES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SEWD/EWD INTO PARTS OF WRN OK AND NWRN TX. NRN LINE FROM SWRN KS
INTO THE OK PANHANDLE IS MOVING SEWD AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THREAT
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SRN LINE FROM THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS IS MOVING ESEWD WITH CONTINUING
THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE
STORMS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG...AND ACTIVITY
MAY BE SUSTAINED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET INTENSIFIES OVER THE PLAINS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (70%)