Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2012

[SatelliteHigh]

Incorrect.

Video stream from KOCO is available here. http://mfile.akamai.com/12893/live/reflector:38841.asx Just fullscreen the view and enjoy! You can also observe the LiveWire at http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Live_...torms_April_12 and the video stream is also available on there. :-)

Thank you for the link. It's kind of funny though, that's the one station that is doing nothing but looking at the radar. And it's all in SW Oklahoma right now. All the other TV stations I'm listening to are saying "Wow look at that picture! Wow look at this video of the tornado in Norman!" It's driving me crazy.

[Thunder]

Thank you for the link. It's kind of funny though, that's the one station that is doing nothing but looking at the radar. And it's all in SW Oklahoma right now. All the other TV stations I'm listening to are saying "Wow look at that picture! Wow look at this video of the tornado in Norman!" It's driving me crazy.

I've been flipping channels between all the Big 3 and from what I've seen, they are all equal. They look at damages, radars, and live videos. It just depend on the moment you flip to a channel and what you catch them showing.

There are Tornado Warnings issued in SW Oklahoma right now and the track of that storm is gunning for the metro area. It will arrive in about two hours if it holds together. That storm seem to be the most impressive out of all today.

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR KIOWA
AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 625 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WARREN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNTAIN PARK...ROOSEVELT...WARREN AND TOM STEED RESERVOIR.

Read more: http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Live_...#ixzz1ry0UElel

[SatelliteHigh]

I've been flipping channels between all the Big 3 and from what I've seen, they are all equal. They look at damages, radars, and live videos. It just depend on the moment you flip to a channel and what you catch them showing.

There are Tornado Warnings issued in SW Oklahoma right now and the track of that storm is gunning for the metro area. It will arrive in about two hours if it holds together. That storm seem to be the most impressive out of all today.

I haven't seen a single photo in the 40 minutes I've been watching, or the video of the tornado in Norman that they are showing on whatever station Gary England is on. (I think that's what I'm listening to?) There was one time they briefly went to someone in the field and they showed footage of some random clouds for about a minute. Other than that it's constant radar stuff.

And this KOCO station is spending every second on the storm around Hobart and Altus, which is somewhat strange as people down there don't even get KOCO, and are watching their own KSWO.

Edit: They're showing Norman footage, finally!

[Thunder]

KOCO does reach far southwest. If not in that specific area, then at least very close to it. That storm is gunning for the metro, so its very important. And many people do have friends and family across the state, even in the southwest.

[Thunder]

There are currently 4,152 without power in Norman, 94 in Central OKC, 479 in North OKC, and 431 in Piedmont.

Desktop Version - http://public.oge.com/systemwatch/Sy...f?startMapID=1

Mobile Version - http://public.oge.com/systemwatch/Sy...1_content.html

Update

Power Outage Update - 2,566 in Norman (improvement), 94 in Central OKC, 462 in North OKC, and 431 in Piedmont.

[Thunder]

We have another Tornado Warning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 726 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COOPERTON...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COOPERTON.

Read more: http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Live_...#ixzz1ryD7DnmJ

[MikeOKC]

We have another Tornado Warning.

Very interesting:
http://newsok.com/forecasters-say-sa...le/feed/370542

Only the second time in history that the NWS has issued a "high risk warning" more than 24-hours in advance. Shortly after they issued that warning a tornado buzzed the Storm Prediction Center. The irony, considering how big this country is.

[Midtowner]

[Thunder]

Very interesting:
http://newsok.com/forecasters-say-sa...le/feed/370542

Only the second time in history that the NWS has issued a "high risk warning" more than 24-hours in advance. Shortly after they issued that warning a tornado buzzed the Storm Prediction Center. The irony, considering how big this country is.

That is very frightening. It is almost like they are saying that tomorrow will be far worse than May 3rd. I'm actually thinking right now if I can convince my mother to drive away from the state or stay put in this house and potentially be killed. Closest shelter is Del City High School, but I've read months ago that shelters like that are misleading sense of security due to concrete and steel overhead the gym area capable of skyrocketing deaths. My home is a 5th Wheel. Mom's home wouldn't stand a chance, I believe.

..A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL HARMON...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GREER AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 809 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF MCQUEEN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOULD AND MCQUEEN.

Read more: http://livewire.koco.com/Event/Live_...#ixzz1ryOcyyOy

[venture]

I'll be in the chat room for the evening now. Two tornado warned cells out there moving east towards Central OK.

[venture]

Very interesting:
http://newsok.com/forecasters-say-sa...le/feed/370542

Only the second time in history that the NWS has issued a "high risk warning" more than 24-hours in advance. Shortly after they issued that warning a tornado buzzed the Storm Prediction Center. The irony, considering how big this country is.

Don't confuse "warning" for SPC's Outlook. They didn't issue a warning, they issued their outlook...and the High Risk was posted early this morning when it first came out - not shortly before this afternoon's tornado.

[Thunder]

Tornado Watches extended until 4am.

TORNADO WATCH 163 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC003-009-011-015-017-027-031-037-039-043-047-049-051-053-055-
057-063-065-071-073-075-081-083-087-093-103-107-109-113-117-119-
125-129-133-143-147-149-140900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0163.120414T0135Z-120414T0900Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE
CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND
COMANCHE CREEK CUSTER
DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN
GRADY GRANT GREER
HARMON HUGHES JACKSON
KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA
LINCOLN LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE
PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGER MILLS
SEMINOLE TULSA WASHINGTON
WA****A

[MikeOKC]

Don't confuse "warning" for SPC's Outlook. They didn't issue a warning, they issued their outlook...and the High Risk was posted early this morning when it first came out - not shortly before this afternoon's tornado.

I didn't confuse it with anything, I just repeated the wording verbatim from the AP story. But you're right - it seems they confused it. It's even at the Washington Post site now. I suppose the gist of it is the same regardless.

As states across the middle of the country prepared for the worst, storms were already kicking off in Norman, Okla., where a twister whizzed by the nation’s tornado forecasting headquarters but caused little damage.

It was only the second time in U.S. history that the Storm Prediction Center issued a high-risk warning more than 24 hours in advance, said Russ Schneider, director of the center, which is part of the National Weather Service. The first time was in April 2006, when nearly 100 tornadoes tore across the southeastern U.S., killing a dozen people and damaging more than 1,000 homes in Tennessee.

Venture, I've never asked...all I know is your name is Kevin, but where do you work? Are you a a meteorologist? What a fascinating business (especially this time of year!)...

[venture]

I didn't confuse it with anything, I just repeated the wording verbatim from the AP story. But you're right - it seems they confused it. It's even at the Washington Post site now. I suppose the gist of it is the same regardless.

As states across the middle of the country prepared for the worst, storms were already kicking off in Norman, Okla., where a twister whizzed by the nation’s tornado forecasting headquarters but caused little damage.

It was only the second time in U.S. history that the Storm Prediction Center issued a high-risk warning more than 24 hours in advance, said Russ Schneider, director of the center, which is part of the National Weather Service. The first time was in April 2006, when nearly 100 tornadoes tore across the southeastern U.S., killing a dozen people and damaging more than 1,000 homes in Tennessee.

Venture, I've never asked...all I know is your name is Kevin, but where do you work? Are you a a meteorologist? What a fascinating business (especially this time of year!)...

No worries. Name isn't Kevin...that is some delusion Thunder was going on about. /shrug LOL

No a meteorologist...went to school changed to computer programming though. Did chase for around 12 years though and stopped a few years back when it got too ridiculous out there. My work place is more associated with my avatar. :-)

[Thunder]

I didn't say his name was Kevin. I know his real name, but he has to announce it.

[MikeOKC]

No worries. Name isn't Kevin...that is some delusion Thunder was going on about. /shrug LOL

No a meteorologist...went to school changed to computer programming though. Did chase for around 12 years though and stopped a few years back when it got too ridiculous out there. My work place is more associated with my avatar. :-)

I'm sorry about the name thing. I was in the chat room once or twice last year and everyone was calling you "Kevin"...it just takes one to use a name and you're stuck with it!

I've said it before, but it's worth saying again - thank you for the effort you put into keeping so many educated and informed here at OKCTalk and your chat site.

[Thunder]

The multiple cells approaching the metro all merged into a huge glorified complex. There's no tornadoes on the ground at the moment. We may just be lucky tonight.

[Thunder]

I think it is something called a Sig Tornado Parameters scale. 10 being the highest...extremely rare. Effective/Valid for 7pm tomorrow.

[MikeOKC]

CBS Evening News led off their newscast tonight with Scott Pelley tossing it to Dean Reynolds in Norman. Good video inside the Storm Prediction Center.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_16...nsas-missouri/

[Thunder]

SPC update for today.





Slightly less dramatic than previously. Tornado probability went from 60% to 30%.

[SatelliteHigh]

I'll be in the chat room for the evening now. Two tornado warned cells out there moving east towards Central OK.

Wait, what chat room?

[venture]

Wait, what chat room?

Located here: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/

[venture]

Update on today's situation...

06Z GFS
Very Unstable atmosphere will develop through the day. CAPE will get to around 3000 j/kg from Wichita Falls to Ponca City. Wind profiles and shear values are favorable for tornado formation later today and will increase after dark. Initial storm formation is forecast to start in SW OK between 4 and 7PM and then expand throughout Central OK during the overnight hours until about 7AM when most activity should be pushing into SE OK.

06Z NAM
Much the same story as with the GFS. Very to highly unstable atmosphere today with CAPE values 3000-4000 j/kg over much of Central OK from border to border. EHI values will be favorable from Pauls Valley to the North. LCL values forecast to be a tad high through early evening which could restrict some tornado development. Storm formation timeline is a bit different than GFS. Initial activity expected in North Central OK by 7PM and then developing down through SW OK by 4AM. Impacts on Central OK will be from 4AM through 10AM on Sunday.

HRRR short term forecast has things dry through 5PM...so this is looking like a late show. New SPC outlook in next post.

[venture]

Day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0745 am cdt sat apr 14 2012

valid 141300z - 151200z

...there is a high risk of svr tstms later this afternoon into
tonight for central/ern neb...central/ern ks...and central/n central
ok...

...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms surrounding the high risk...from
sw ok to far ne neb and wrn ia...

...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the mdt risk...from
nw tx to wrn neb...ia...and mo...

...tornado outbreak expected late this afternoon into tonight from
central/ern neb swd across ks to central ok...with the potential for
long-track/damaging tornadoes...

...synopsis...
A closed low over nw az this morning will progress ewd/enewd to the
high plains by this evening while evolving into more of an open
wave...and then continue into the central plains by the end of the
period. An associated surface cyclone will deepen and move newd
from ern co this afternoon to ne neb/se sd by 12z sunday. S of the
cyclone...a well-defined dryline is expected to reside from central
ks swd into wrn ok and nw tx by this evening...while a warm front
moves nwd from ks this morning to central/ern neb by late afternoon.
A moist and unstable warm sector will cover neb/ks/ok/n tx to the e
of the dryline and s of the warm front. The primary locations for
severe storm development today will be near the surface low moving
into neb...and the dryline trailing swd into ks/ok.

...central plains through tonight...
The forecast reasoning remains largely unchanged from the past few
days. In the wake of morning waa storms across ne ok/se ks/sw
mo...low-level moisture will surge nwd across ks to s central/se neb
by mid-late afternoon. Daytime heating invof the dryline and
boundary layer dewpoints ranging from the low 60s in neb to the
mid-upper 60s in central ok will contribute to afternoon mlcape
values of 2000-3500 j/kg. Meanwhile... Deep-layer vertical shear
will be quite supportive of supercells in the unstable warm
sector...with effective bulk shear of 50-70 kt across almost the
entire warm sector. The degree of low-level moisture and an
expected increase in low-level shear later this afternoon into early
tonight will result in an environment clearly into the parameter
space associated with previous strong-violent and long-track tornado
episodes.

the primary question this outlook will be storm coverage along the
dryline this evening in ks/ok. The convective schemes in the
operational models vary with storm initiation signals...while
several of the convection-allowing models generate widely scattered
dryline supercells in the 22-01z time frame. Forecast
soundings...modified for expected afternoon temperatures along the
dryline...show deep mixed layer and little or no convective
inhibition. Plus...a well-defined band of low-level ascent is
expected along the dryline...which suggests at least
widely-scattered thunderstorm development across the ks/ok portion
of the dryline is entirely plausible. Farther n...potentially more
concentrated storm development is expected near the surface low and
nw edge of the unstable warm sector in neb /within the left exit
region of the jet aloft/. all factors favor discrete convective
modes through early tonight...and though storms could be widely
spaced...they will be capable of producing long paths of very large
hail and damaging tornadoes through at least 06z.

late tonight...the midlevel trough will fully emerge over the plains
and the pacific cold front will overtake the dryline...potentially
supporting more extensive squall line development near or after 06z.
Damaging winds will be more of a threat with the more linear and
widespread convection late tonight...given a continuation of
surface-based instability and 60-70 kt flow in the lowest few
thousand feet agl.

..thompson/mosier.. 04/14/2012

[venture]

Graphics attached below...click on them to enlarge.

High Risk today is EAST of a line from Alva to Cordell; NORTH of a line from Cordell to Chickasha to Norman to Shawnee to Tulsa to Nowata.

Moderate Risk surrounds the High Risk a few miles further west all the way to the TX border by Frederick then NORTH of a line that runs east to Waurika to Sulphur to Eufaula to Miami.

Slight Risk covers the rest of the state except for extreme far Western OK (including the Panhandle) and far SE OK.