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Thread: 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion

  1. Default 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion

    The Atlantic Tropical Season officially starts June 1st and runs through November. We'll be using this thread to discuss the activity that is to come in the Atlantic basin. Should any system start moving its way towards a specific inland region, we'll likely move that discussion to the monthly severe weather thread. This thread is meant as a resource and will be updated when needed. Do not use the thread for emergency planning for the protection of life and property.

    Majority of the information provided here from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



    Atlantic Visible Satellite


    Atlantic Infrared Satellite - Colored


    Long Range Forecast Models
    COD Forecast Model Page
    Florida State Experimental Cyclone Forecast Page
    NOGAPS

  2. Default Re: 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Yes...this is about 5 months too early for this thread. However...

    SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
    TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
    THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
    FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
    SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
    LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
    SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
    SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
    ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
    SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
    NEXT DAY OR SO
    BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.
    THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
    SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
    NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
    NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
    KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
    THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
    GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
    BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
    KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
    OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.


    $$
    FORECASTER STEWART

  3. #3

    Default Re: 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion

    I assume I'm fairly in my trip to Cancun for this week then?

  4. Default Re: 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Subtropical Storm BERYL Storm Archive
    ...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...[hr][/hr]
    11:00 PM EDT Fri May 25
    Location: 32.5N 74.8W
    Max sustained: 45 mph
    Moving: N at 9 mph
    Min pressure: 1001 mb
    Public
    Advisory
    #1

    1100 PM EDT
    Aviso
    Publico
    none issued
    in last 12 hrs
    Forecast/
    Advisory
    #1

    0300 UTC
    Forecast
    Discussion
    #1

    1100 PM EDT
    Wind Speed
    Probabilities
    #1

    0300 UTC
    NWS Local
    Statements
    US Watch/
    Warning

    1100 PM EDT

  5. Default Re: 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Forgot to post information about Alberto which was off the US East coast last week (or the week before). Tropics are alive and kicking before the June 1st official start date of the season. NHC forecast shows a near normal year. We'll see.

    Names for this year...
    Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, and William.

  6. #6

    Default Re: 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion

    When keeping an eye on the tropics this is one of several sites I like.

    http://spaghettimodels.com/

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