Population Growth for OKC

[HOT ROD]

I’ll just ask since you (Hot Rod) seem to be using a specialized metric for concluding they are peers; how do Oklahoma City and Portland have a peer relationship? From my view, there are a handful of anecdotal similarities, but I just don’t see them as peers in any sense. What do you say to change my mind?

as i mentioned a number of times on here, I see similarities in that both are 150 miles from a larger metro and both have/are seeing a revitalization of their downtown (Portland - Rose District, Waterfront. OKC - Bricktown, Midtown, Union District). Municipal populations are similar as well.

Not sure why this point keeps getting missed and people keep jumping to metro population as the sole comparison. I've given 2 where I see similarities - where Portland can be a peer that OKC can learn from. I've even mentioned one thing Portland has done that has made them successful - urban growth boundary. Yet the only feedback I've gotten is criticism based on metro pop. I've been to both numerous times and live in the bigger city up the road from Portland, grew up in the smaller city up from Dallas; for prospective.

Carry on.

[Swake]

Seattle (4.0mm) isn't that much larger than Portland (2.4mm), Seattle is only 1.66 times larger.

DFW (7.6mm) is 5.4 times larger than OKC (1.4mm). This disparity is not a similarity.

Cities with much larger neighbors like OKC?

Indianapolis (2.1mm) to Chicago (9.6mm)
Richmond, VA (1.3mm) to DC (6.4mm)
New Orleans (1.3mm) to Houston (7.1mm)
Birmingham (1.1mm) to Atlanta (6.1mm)
Tucson (1.0mm) to Phoenix (4.8mm)

[G.Walker]

According to latest census data, the state of Oklahoma added roughly 25,000 residents from April 2020 - July 2021. That's a pretty good clip, given that was peak time of the pandemic.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/t...ate-total.html

Given these numbers, I am sure OKC is close to hitting 700,000 residents.

[Laramie]

That's equivalent to 16 months of population growth/25,000 or 1,562 each month. Majority of this growth is occurring in the Oklahoma City MSA.

2020 population as of April 1, 2020

41. Oklahoma City, OK MSA 1,425,695 - 2010/1,252,987 [172,708 +13.78%]
22. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 681,054 - 2010/579,999 [101,055 +17.42%]

Also noticed Oklahoma City Sales Tax Collections April 2020 to July 2021 (same period) fluctuates from 11 - 16% growth. This supports that growth you cited G. Walker and the point Hot Rod mentioned in #2051 above... This means that there will be surplus MAPS 4 funds at the end of this eight year collection period: https://www.okc.gov/Home/Components/News/News/3945/18

MAPS 4 collections for the 8 year period projected budget is $978 million. OKC had $33 million in MAPS 3 Surplus Funds in 2021. You could probably see that surplus double or triple at the end of the collection cycle.

[ChrisHayes]

That's equivalent to 16 months of population growth/25,000 or 1,562 each month. Majority of this growth is occurring in the Oklahoma City MSA.

2020 population as of April 1, 2020

41. Oklahoma City, OK MSA 1,425,695 - 2010/1,252,987 [172,708 +13.78%]
22. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 681,054 - 2010/579,999 [101,055 +17.42%]

Also noticed Oklahoma City Sales Tax Collections April 2020 to July 2021 (same period) fluctuates from 11 - 16% growth. This supports that growth you cited G. Walker. This means that there will be surplus MAPS 4 funds at the end of this eight year collection period: https://www.okc.gov/Home/Components/News/News/3945/18

MAPS 4 collections for the 8 year period projected budget is $978 million. OKC had $33 million in MAPS 3 Surplus Funds in 2021. You could probably see that surplus double or triple at the end of the collection cycle.

It's hard to say that it will mean surplus funds. Yeah, tax receipts are up, but so is inflation. Inflation means tax amounts are higher. But you have to look at the cost of construction. The price of construction products might go up quite a bit and squeeze any surplus we have. If we were in a normal inflationary environment, a surplus would be guaranteed.

[Laramie]

The inflation on building materials could definitely eat up any or all the surplus funds. Good point, Chris Hayes.

"The numbers tell the story. Overall, construction costs for the 12-month period through the end of August 2021 rose by 4.5 percent, with material costs leading the way with a whopping increase of 23.1 percent. As noted in the report, the volatility in construction material prices experienced this year is unprecedented in contemporary history."

Construction Costs Will Keep Rising. Here’s How Much: https://www.commercialsearch.com/new...eres-how-much/

Census Consensus: Oklahoma City Growing https://www.news9.com/story/611fe3b8...-city-growing-

[Laramie]

Oklahoma population growth outpaces nation


July 2020 to July 2021:

Domestic migration add 24,687 people from other states.
International migration added 1,523 included in the total above

.

These are impressive numbers, at this pace Oklahoma will probably eclipsed 4 million; OKC 700,000 in June 2022.

Source OCPA link full story: https://www.ocpathink.org/post/oklah...utpaces-nation


MAP above shows pattern with 5 of the 6 fastest growing counties encircle Oklahoma City

Oklahoma City saw a 17.4% increase in its population from 579,999 residents to 681,054 residents over that time period, placing it as the 22nd largest city in the U.S. Five of the 14 cities that gained more than 100,000 residents: Velocity - https://www.velocityokc.com/blog/pol...t-from-growth/

[Bellaboo]

And Eastern Canadian County has massive housing additions under construction from Piedmont to Mustang. Would not be surprised to see it at the top again in 2030.

[Laramie]

Oklahoma City Metro Area Population by Year

Year Population Growth Growth Rate
2021 1,439,640 13,945 Estimate Current raw number of 13,945 equates to 1,162 per month/97 per week.
2020 1,425,695 Official Census * 17.4% 2010-2020 Growth Rate
2019 1,408,950 15,350 1.09%
2018 1,393,600 12,110 0.87%

Oklahoma City Population by Year

Year Population Growth
2021 NA [37,362 based on 2020-19 [718,416 unofficial estimate]
2020 681,054 37,385 Official Census* (Could this signal the beginning of a boom)
2019 643,692 6.408
2018 637,284 8,093

Oklahoma State Population by Year

Year Population Growth Growth Rate
2021 3,983,961 24,608 1.61 Estimate
2020 3,959,353 Official Census*

*Official Census 2020 figures

[Plutonic Panda]

In the greater metro area news: Grady County had explosive growth as well:

https://www.velocityokc.com/blog/ins...ack=super_blog

[Bellaboo]

Did they add a bunch of dispenseries ?

[Laramie]

You see those dispensaries throughout the area, it's better than a bunch of boarded up vacant shops and store fronts.

Oklahoma Medical Marijuana Authority is responsible for licensing, regulating, and administering the program as authorized by state law operating under the umbrella of the Oklahoma State Department of Health.

Good for our economy, Oklahoma's dispensaries collected $385 million in sales through June 2020. Dispensaries in 2019 brought in $345 million in medical cannabis revenue to the state coffers. Retailers also generated $71.6 million in state and local taxes last year, $41 million more than was collected in 2019.

According to ZipRecruiter the majority of salaries within the Dispensary jobs category currently range between $26,729 (25th percentile) to $49,312 (75th percentile) with top earners (90th percentile) making $69,590 annually in Oklahoma.

Despite its legality in Oklahoma, medical marijuana is mostly a cash-based industry where few Oklahoma banks participate. The U.S. Congress and Oklahoma Legislatures have failed to pass the SAFE banking act despite bi-partisan support.

[Bellaboo]

I was making a joke. Do you know that the tax code at the OTC for medical marijuana is - MMJ

[gopokes88]

Cool little article about Arcadia's pop growth

https://www.oklahoman.com/story/busi...rs/8799716002/

[Plutonic Panda]

Good article. Arcadia will grow into a suburb soon. Needs more businesses and things to do.

[soonerguru]

So OKC proper is growing by approximately 40,000 a year right now? That means if growth keeps up OKC will have 200,000 more residents in five years? 400,000 more residents in 10 years? That's fairly insane.

If it keeps up OKC proper will be closing in on a million residents by 2026. Crazy.

[Plutonic Panda]

Judging purely by the amount of traffic would suggest it. Traffic congestion is really starting to become prevalent in OKC.

[Laramie]

So OKC proper is growing by approximately 40,000 a year right now? That means if growth keeps up OKC will have 200,000 more residents in five years? 400,000 more residents in 10 years? That's fairly insane.

If it keeps up OKC proper will be closing in on a million residents by 2026. Crazy.

Where did you get those figures...

Figures support that OKC proper's growth is more like 10,106 a year:

681,054 - 579,999 = 101,055/10 years = 10,106

If OKC keeps up that pace we'll add another 100,000+ residence a year (13.8%). OKC proper could reach 782,109 in 2030.

The Fastest Growing City In Each State: https://247wallst.com/special-report...ach-state-5/9/

[Jeepnokc]

So OKC proper is growing by approximately 40,000 a year right now? That means if growth keeps up OKC will have 200,000 more residents in five years? 400,000 more residents in 10 years? That's fairly insane.

If it keeps up OKC proper will be closing in on a million residents by 2026. Crazy.

Is there any data on population growth in OKC by area of city? Curious which areas are growing and also whether it is the rural areas versus other areas. I know my area SW OKC has really seen a big boom of new neighborhoods last ten years as I am sure the area up north have done the same. Downtown has seen growth also so be curious to see numbers.

[LocoAko]

Is there any data on population growth in OKC by area of city? Curious which areas are growing and also whether it is the rural areas versus other areas. I know my area SW OKC has really seen a big boom of new neighborhoods last ten years as I am sure the area up north have done the same. Downtown has seen growth also so be curious to see numbers.

Here is the best I could do using the data from https://data.oklahoman.com/census/to...oma/050-40109/. They also have Total Housing Units change, but it follows the general patterns the same way. Clearly (and unsurprisingly) the growth is on the outer ring of the city in the suburban southside, Edmond/Deer Creek, and Yukon regions.

The bigger surprise to me has been the relative decrease in population in the central part of the city, which doesn't jive with my notion of people enthusiastically moving back into the core over the past decade. But it was pointed out to me that it could also reflect demographic change (i.e., childless couples increasingly populating the core, possibly having fewer children, etc, or even still continued so-called white flight). More likely, many parts of the core are already quite built up and occupied as well, so perhaps these maps are just a natural result of there not being able to be noteworthy growth in population short of dramatic increases in housing density, etc. which we're not seeing on any large scale....

[LocoAko]

For a more summary-level view, here is the current population of each city council ward from this week's City Council meeting. When these wards were created in 2010 the approximate balance-level population of each ward was ~72,500 people. So, it's easy to see where the growth has been on the ward level: the west side.

[Jeepnokc]

Thanks for data LocoAko. It is as I suspected but also surprised at the downtown numbers as I expected them to be higher. Not surprised with SW OKC. When we moved out here (SW 104/ MacArthur area) 12 years ago....it was fairly sparse on housing and now there are neighborhoods everywhere and also more sense. When we moved, they were developing 5 acre lots and now everything is 1/2 to one acre lots

[OKProf]

The bigger surprise to me has been the relative decrease in population in the central part of the city, which doesn't jive with my notion of people enthusiastically moving back into the core over the past decade. But it was pointed out to me that it could also reflect demographic change (i.e., childless couples increasingly populating the core, possibly having fewer children, etc, or even still continued so-called white flight). More likely, many parts of the core are already quite built up and occupied as well, so perhaps these maps are just a natural result of there not being able to be noteworthy growth in population short of dramatic increases in housing density, etc. which we're not seeing on any large scale....

The conclusion that there is a relative decrease in the central part of the city is misleading. Yes there are many areas with negative growth, but if you click on the link and zoom in on the some of the tracts, you'll actually see huge growth in a few areas, such as midtown, deep deuce, bricktown, and parts of downtown. Midtown, for example, increased by 259%!! Whereas the areas with low growth only decreased by a few percent. So it seems that the urban core growth is good, just concentrated.

These statistics match the eye test. Where do observe all the new housing, particularly apartment complexes? It's in midtown, deep deuce, etc.

[oklip955]

Thanks for posting all the data. I have been wondering about northwest side growth. I am talking about north of Memorial and west of Edmond city limit. Just driving up Portland/May ave, and those areas to the west to County Line rd seem to be sprouting up lots and lots of housing developments in the last few years.Anyone have any idea of the population in this area. I understand that some of this is in Okc proper and some in the Deer Creek area. It would be interesting to just see the actual population totals. I have not spent much time in the southwest areas to appreciate the growth. Again thanks for the data posted.

[oklip955]

Also give about 2 or 3 more years and the area east of I35 in Edmond will have racked up some big growth number too. I moved out here 38 yrs ago to be in the country, no the city has moved to me. Ugh