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Thread: Population Growth for OKC

  1. #2701

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by BDP View Post
    I think I'm just getting old enough to think "you guys don't know how you good you have it" when I hear complaints about OKC. lol
    No kidding! I graduated from OU in 1982 and things promptly went to hell. I was in my 20s in the 1980s and it's hard to describe how little was going on here. That's a big part of the reason I left in 1989.

    At the same time, constantly comparing ourselves to those dark days is not a good yardstick if we want to talk about being competitive and bringing in meaningful new employers and having people consider us as a desirable place to move.

    Yes, things are miles better but we started from an abysmal baseline. So it's great to celebrate how far we've come but it's also disingenuous to say that we are now having people move here in large numbers from places like California. And to keep promoting that narrative does a great disservice to those of us who want to see OKC and the state move forward and actually become competitive with the dozens of states and cities that are empirically way ahead of us.

  2. Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by stlokc View Post
    Wow. A lot of possible takeaways from that list.

    Here's one: Devon Energy is the 119th largest employer in the state. I would have put it in the top 50 not knowing anything.

    Also, the relative scarcity of energy companies in general for a state that is supposedly reliant on them.

    (I do realize that employment numbers is not a direct corollary to overall value. 1 Devon job is probably worth 10 Amazon jobs. But still.)
    Every Devon job is worth 30-40x an Amazon job based upon the net income an average job represents to each company.

    And what you don’t see in the Devon / CHK employment numbers are all of the vendors. There are numerous land service brokerages, engineering and geological consultants, oil service companies and, of course, drilling contractors. That’s a lot of employment that doesn’t show up on “top employer” lists, but the collective headcount and economic impact of those companies is huge.

  3. Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by Swake View Post
    From April 2020 to the July 2021 estimate for MSAs, which is the latest actual real estimate we have from the US Census, Oklahoma City grew by 1.12% as compared to .85% for Tulsa.

    A .27% gap in growth is not really very large.

    And god forbid a Tulsa newspaper would mention Tulsa in an article. Pure insanity. Talk about having a complex.
    Swake, nobody is saying that Tulsa newspaper can't mention Tulsa in the article, but it is written to infer that the growth in the state was in Tulsa - which it wasn't. The article should have mentioned the OKC metro area as the vast majority 80% or greater of the growth in the state went there. Tulsans and Tulsa media OFTEN like to shortscape or ignore Oklahoma City unless Tulsa has some advantage or positive by comparison, this is a fact.

    The should have just as easily wrote the article as Oklahoma grew to 4 million people in 2022, with the vast majority coming from Tx and elsewhere. Leave it at that, and there's no need to mention OKC where the growth went to. But the article mentioned Tulsa, which was NOT a growth area by any significance and then mentioned "the rest of the state" which was also not a significant growth area but NO MENTION of the actual growth area. This is often the case with Tulsans and Tulsa media, not sure why since OKC growth benefits the state (and Tulsa if it wants to be part of it). Not sure why Tulsan's always want to take the credit or discredit/ignore Oklahoma City. That is what most on here are discussing, not that Tulsa World mentioned Tulsa.
    Oklahoma City, the RENAISSANCE CITY!

  4. #2704

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by stlokc View Post
    What I like about this map is how OKC has growth in a number of directions. While there is a bit more to the north, which is expected, there is growth in the south and west as well. This is a good sign for downtown because it is staying more in the population center of the metro area.
    Also makes me feel like the Kickapoo Turnpike was built in exactly the right location for Downtown OKC, as it should spur growth on the one side of the Metro that has seen relatively less growth over the last two decades.

  5. #2705

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by April in the Plaza View Post
    Every Devon job is worth 30-40x an Amazon job based upon the net income an average job represents to each company.

    And what you don’t see in the Devon / CHK employment numbers are all of the vendors. There are numerous land service brokerages, engineering and geological consultants, oil service companies and, of course, drilling contractors. That’s a lot of employment that doesn’t show up on “top employer” lists, but the collective headcount and economic impact of those companies is huge.
    All businesses have related vendors. And to the extent they are big employers, they would be shown on the list.

    I'm not going to do the math on your net income statement but it's irrelevant anyway. Like Amazon, Devon is a publically-traded company. It's not like the income or profit stays in Oklahoma.

    What does stay in the state are salaries paid to employees and Amazon is paying many multiples in wages to people living in Oklahoma; and many multiples of any energy company.

  6. #2706

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    All businesses have related vendors. And to the extent they are big employers, they would be shown on the list.

    I'm not going to do the math on your net income statement but it's irrelevant anyway. Like Amazon, Devon is a publically-traded company. It's not like the income or profit stays in Oklahoma.

    What does stay in the state are salaries paid to employees and Amazon is paying many multiples in wages to people living in Oklahoma; and many multiples of any energy company.
    I certainly agree with you regarding the vendor equation and that most businesses have them, and would add that in most industries, the higher-status vendors (such as big law firms, accounting firms, consultants etc.) cluster around the corporate offices of companies, which is why 100 Devon jobs would be better than 100 Amazon jobs even if, in some parallel universe, the jobs paid wages of exactly the same amount. You want the HQ operations, you want the C-suite, you want the decision makers in your community.

  7. #2707

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by SEMIweather View Post
    Also makes me feel like the Kickapoo Turnpike was built in exactly the right location for Downtown OKC, as it should spur growth on the one side of the Metro that has seen relatively less growth over the last two decades.
    I'm actually having a hard time understanding how this turnpike will spur growth. That's a pretty rural area out there and 90% of the traffic on that turnpike will be thru-traffic. I doubt there are that many commuters that will be in it; it's just not in a natural commuting pattern. There will likely be travel-associated development such as truck stops at intersections but I really doubt that the Kickapoo Turnpike will unleash some giant wave of development on its own.

  8. #2708

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by stlokc View Post
    I certainly agree with you regarding the vendor equation and that most businesses have them, and would add that in most industries, the higher-status vendors (such as big law firms, accounting firms, consultants etc.) cluster around the corporate offices of companies, which is why 100 Devon jobs would be better than 100 Amazon jobs even if, in some parallel universe, the jobs paid wages of exactly the same amount. You want the HQ operations, you want the C-suite, you want the decision makers in your community.
    I agree but we're talking about the difference between 11,000 jobs versus 1,100.

  9. #2709

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    I agree but we're talking about the difference between 11,000 jobs versus 1,100.
    I take your point. I'm glad we have Amazon. I'm glad we have all those jobs. The best scenario is a healthy mix of all types of employment. Have all the Amazons and all the call centers we can get our hands on but what we don't want is a race to the bottom where everything in OKC is low skill work.

  10. #2710

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    At the same time, constantly comparing ourselves to those dark days is not a good yardstick if we want to talk about being competitive and bringing in meaningful new employers and having people consider us as a desirable place to move.
    Totally agree.

    In a lot of ways, the best difference is way less complacency and, honestly, resignation. When I'm thinking "you guys don't know how good you have it", I'm also loving that they care to want to make it better and move it forward and believe that it can. There was a dearth of that for 10 to 15 years, so I would never actually say that to anyone who is looking at something through a higher standard than those dark days, as you say.

    The reality is that the city has gotten so much better because certain people decided it can be better, invested in that idea. and worked to make it better. So, even when I'm thinking "you guys don't know how good you have it", I would actually say "if you think it can be better, go make it better. I know that's possible, because I've watched it happen."

    That's what it took to get us here and so, it stands to reason, that's what it will take to get us to the next step.

  11. #2711

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    ^

    Well said and thankfully there is a lot of civic pride and people who really love OKC and the more of that we get, the more the bar will be raised.

    And you can definitely see that happening in almost every respect.

  12. #2712

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by stlokc View Post
    Wow. A lot of possible takeaways from that list.

    Here's one: Devon Energy is the 119th largest employer in the state. I would have put it in the top 50 not knowing anything.

    Also, the relative scarcity of energy companies in general for a state that is supposedly reliant on them.

    (I do realize that employment numbers is not a direct corollary to overall value. 1 Devon job is probably worth 10 Amazon jobs. But still.)
    Oil and gas has an outsized influence on state politics going back for a century. Still an important part of our economy for sure, but not nearly what it was and going forward, hopefully less so, because that will make Oklahoma less dependent on a commodity price for its economic well being.

  13. #2713

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
    This is a list of largest employers in the state. Very different than the one put out by the OKC Chamber as they leave out Walmart and others.

    https://www.okcommerce.gov/doing-bus...est-employers/









    I have to wonder about the accuracy of that list when they show that Whataburger has more employees than Sonic. The Whataburger website shows 34 locations in all of Oklahoma. Sonic has more than that just in OKC.

  14. #2714
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    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by unfundedrick View Post
    I have to wonder about the accuracy of that list when they show that Whataburger has more employees than Sonic. The Whataburger website shows 34 locations in all of Oklahoma. Sonic has more than that just in OKC.
    That may be due to franchising.

  15. Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Very impressive to see the State at #11. Good raw numbers.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List..._net_migration

  16. #2716

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by Swake View Post
    That may be due to franchising.
    I still find it hard to believe that Whataburger has 2,000 employees in 34 locations unless they count all employees who ever worked there during a year instead of all who are constantly employed at one time. I know they have a large turnover in employees. It's not impossible but I just don't know how they can possibly come up with those kind of figures and be accurate.

  17. #2717

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by stlokc View Post
    I'm actually having a hard time understanding how this turnpike will spur growth. That's a pretty rural area out there and 90% of the traffic on that turnpike will be thru-traffic. I doubt there are that many commuters that will be in it; it's just not in a natural commuting pattern. There will likely be travel-associated development such as truck stops at intersections but I really doubt that the Kickapoo Turnpike will unleash some giant wave of development on its own.
    I don't think it's terribly far out there. Luther Road is only 4 miles further away from Downtown than Garth Brooks Boulevard which has been growing like crazy lately. It doesn't feel out of the question to get a development on par with The Market at Czech Hall or West End Pointe in the I-40/Peebly area someday. I'm sure it's going to take time because the overall road infrastructure in that part of town has a ways to go (it might be more of a land of four-way stops than the Deer Creek/Piedmont area). But, long term I think you'll ultimately see more development out there, especially if the extension and the Indian Hills connector get built.

  18. #2718

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by unfundedrick View Post
    I still find it hard to believe that Whataburger has 2,000 employees in 34 locations unless they count all employees who ever worked there during a year instead of all who are constantly employed at one time. I know they have a large turnover in employees. It's not impossible but I just don't know how they can possibly come up with those kind of figures and be accurate.
    I found a couple posts on reddit saying, e.g., "At my location Dayshift (Breakfast/Lunch) usually anywhere from 11-18. Evening (Dinner/Snack) 8-12 and Early Bird (Overnight) minimum 3 at all times and 9 max. It all depends on the day of the week and business sales."

    If we assume that is somewhat accurate then:


    16+11+5 = 32/day. If they are part time, they would work a max of 4 shifts. So 8/day *7 days = 56 employees / store.
    21x 8hr shifts = 4.2 40hr shifts. So 4x full time managers / store.
    56*34 + 4*34 = 2,040 employees for 34 stores for one week.

    That means that they would likely have a few full-time employees other than the manager and 2,000 for 34 stores would be a reasonable number.
    (I looked at the number of employees needed to staff for one week since that is how full-time/overtime is calculated.)

  19. #2719

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by April in the Plaza View Post
    Very impressive to see the State at #11. Good raw numbers.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List..._net_migration
    Interesting that Oklahoma is out in front of a nearby popular state, such as Colorado. Probably Colorado isn't as popular as it once was, due to rising cost of living, especially in the Denver area. But would imagine majority of them moving are conservative, aren't ski fans and would prefer to move to Texas. Where I'm from, Stillwater, Colorado isn't among the most commonly seen out of state license plates. More commonly seen is no. 1 Texas, followed by Kansas, California and Arkansas.

  20. #2720

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by Bunty View Post
    Interesting that Oklahoma is out in front of a nearby popular state, such as Colorado. Probably Colorado isn't as popular as it once was, due to rising cost of living, especially in the Denver area. But would imagine majority of them moving are conservative, aren't ski fans and would prefer to move to Texas. Where I'm from, Stillwater, Colorado isn't among the most commonly seen out of state license plates. More commonly seen is no. 1 Texas, followed by Kansas, California and Arkansas.
    That checks out.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  21. #2721

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by fortpatches View Post
    I found a couple posts on reddit saying, e.g., "At my location Dayshift (Breakfast/Lunch) usually anywhere from 11-18. Evening (Dinner/Snack) 8-12 and Early Bird (Overnight) minimum 3 at all times and 9 max. It all depends on the day of the week and business sales."

    If we assume that is somewhat accurate then:


    16+11+5 = 32/day. If they are part time, they would work a max of 4 shifts. So 8/day *7 days = 56 employees / store.
    21x 8hr shifts = 4.2 40hr shifts. So 4x full time managers / store.
    56*34 + 4*34 = 2,040 employees for 34 stores for one week.

    That means that they would likely have a few full-time employees other than the manager and 2,000 for 34 stores would be a reasonable number.
    (I looked at the number of employees needed to staff for one week since that is how full-time/overtime is calculated.)
    If part time employees are being counted, that means the chart is somewhat deceptive even if it's accurate. I go to Whataburger occasionally and they would have to have a lot of part time employees to come up with those figures. I think full time employees or the equivalent would be a much better way to represent a comparison of the companies.

  22. #2722

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by GoGators View Post
    That checks out.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Cool. Thanks. I stopped at Arkansas, because other out of state license plates are so commonly less seen, I wouldn't know how to rank the rest of them.

    While northern Texas is very huge for the population, with it being no. 2, I wouldn't be surprised Stillwater having jet flights to DFW is more effective in recruiting northern Texas students to OSU than effective in attracting industry and business to Stillwater. Since flights started in 2016, the only news grabbing manufacturer Stillwater has been able to attract is for magnets to employ only 100. The current freshman class as OSU is believed to be the biggest ever.

  23. Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Looks like the OKC MSA gained about 15.7K people between 2021-22.

  24. #2724

    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    I also noticed that, assuming these latest estimates are to be believed, Oklahoma County went above 800,000 for the first time and the state went above 4 million.

  25. #2725
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    Default Re: Population Growth for OKC

    Quote Originally Posted by Decious View Post
    Looks like the OKC MSA gained about 15.7K people between 2021-22.
    Would love for you to share an article or link for the 15,700 gain, thanks...

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