Population Growth for OKC

[okccowan]

So if you combined Tulsa and OKC CSAs to match SLC CSA basically covering the entire state of Utah, they would be about equal at around 2.5-2.6 mil.

[Laramie]

Hot Rod Thanks, you answered our question.

Oklahoma City and Tulsa market coverage of the Thunder = the TV homes which is larger than Utah which appeared to be in the North half center of the state, based on those figures it would have to include the Whole State because there are no other cities in Utah with a TV homes figures. The biggest population centers in Utah of !00,000+ all appear to be in the SLC Metro area.

Plus, with areas like Springfield, MO the coverage is more about the Thunder Catchment Area (no longer have that catchment map) which would probably include Sherman-Ada and Wichita Falls-Lawton. Looks like Thunder coverage extends into 3 neighboring states (Missouri, Kansas & Texas.

[Jersey Boss]

I was just extrapolating from the population chart that was posted a few days ago. And I'm using city population from the chart, not metro or market.

From KaynMo's chart above, he's right as I missed Washington DC and didn't include Toronto in my eye count. ...

I would think OKC's market would be ahead of New Orleans and Memphis as well since our metro area is ahead of theirs, but I know how they like to give other cities huge swaths of area to prop up their media markets while confining OKC to just central and very low populated northwestern OK.

Thanks HR. My post was based on second hand knowledge from B/R.

[HOT ROD]

So if you combined Tulsa and OKC CSAs to match SLC CSA basically covering the entire state of Utah, they would be about equal at around 2.5-2.6 mil.

exactly, I think some places get too carried away with this CSA thing - which only makes sense in true sprawl areas like NY, Chi, LA, bay area, DC-Baltimore, etc that truly have municipalities that interact. Creating SLC CSA is ridiculous in that it's basically the entire state in population and there's not much daily interaction among the MSAs to make it a connected region (unlike Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia CSA for example).

Also I argue with OKC's CSA designation still not including Stillwater despite very close business and economic connections with that exurb yet they split Shawnee from the MSA designation years ago even though it is deeply connected. While not much of a difference in population, OKC's MSA should include Shawnee and be the 1.48m something and an extended CSA should include Stillwater bumping us up to 1.6m.

Even Tulsa CSA includes Bartlesville and Muskogee (towns more than 50 miles away - farther than OKC-Stillwater) that arguably are just as connected to Tulsa as Stillwater is to OKC (even same area code, etc).

So if SLC CSA makes sense then OKC CSA should include Stillwater. Better yet - we also could be ridiculous like Utah and do the Oklahoma CSA as was mentioned for 2.7m bragging rights and still would not be our entire state population (still more than 1.3m remaining) unlike Utah with the SLC CSA designation.

[Laramie]

Good post, Hot Rod

[KayneMo]

There are certain criteria that have to be met for there to be a CSA or to be included in a CSA, and that is - adjacent Metropolitan and Micropolitan areas (each of which have their own definitions) have to have an employment interchange measure (EIM) of at least 15. EIM is defined as the sum of the percentage of employed residents of the smaller area who work in the larger area and the percentage of employment in the smaller area that is accounted for by workers who reside in the larger area. Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem CSA meets this criteria just like Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia CSA does.

Bartlesville micro and Muskogee micro meet this criteria for Tulsa metro, and Shawnee micro for OKC metro, whereas Stillwater micro does not for either OKC or Tulsa metros. The OKC metro and the Tulsa metro are already adjacent, and if the two metros had an EIM of at least 15, then that would create an OKC-Tulsa CSA.

[Laramie]

Thanks KayneMO.

Salt Lake City has 3 population areas (within 25 miles) that exceed 100,000 people close to urban SLC. Norman is the only city exceeding 100,000 people with 126,952 in OKC's MSA. Now Edmond is getting close with 96,376. Moore has 63,261 with good growth. Norman-Moore (Shared Vo-Tech) combined represents 190,213.

Now if you combine Midwest City-Del City (57,849 +21,666 = 79,515), since they have shared Mid-Del Schools/Voc Tech Districts yet separate Police Departments & City Councils is what differentiates the two cities.

To put that in perspective: Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex has 8 cities in the 100,00-199,999 category and 5 cities in the 200,000-499,999 with Arlington being the largest at 398,854 which approaches our state's 2nd largest urban city of Tulsa with 402,742.

[BG918]

There are certain criteria that have to be met for there to be a CSA or to be included in a CSA, and that is - adjacent Metropolitan and Micropolitan areas (each of which have their own definitions) have to have an employment interchange measure (EIM) of at least 15. EIM is defined as the sum of the percentage of employed residents of the smaller area who work in the larger area and the percentage of employment in the smaller area that is accounted for by workers who reside in the larger area. Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem CSA meets this criteria just like Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia CSA does.

Bartlesville micro and Muskogee micro meet this criteria for Tulsa metro, and Shawnee micro for OKC metro, whereas Stillwater micro does not for either OKC or Tulsa metros. The OKC metro and the Tulsa metro are already adjacent, and if the two metros had an EIM of at least 15, then that would create an OKC-Tulsa CSA.

I think in the case of Stillwater any commuting is split pretty evenly between OKC and Tulsa which is why you don’t see it included in the CSA for either metro. I think the ties between Stillwater and Tulsa are stronger, however.

[Bunty]

I think in the case of Stillwater any commuting is split pretty evenly between OKC and Tulsa which is why you don’t see it included in the CSA for either metro. I think the ties between Stillwater and Tulsa are stronger, however.

I don't think many people who work at OSU would want to deal with the hour long commute from living in Tulsa. Except for Sand Springs, the more popular suburbs would take even longer. Shorter to do and likely more popular is the 40 mile commute from living in Edmond.

Stillwater has stronger ties to OKC. This is because all the TV and almost all the radio station signals are stronger than the ones from Tulsa. Unlike the case with OKC, getting TV signals from Tulsa from just an indoor antenna can't be done. However, getting stable TV reception from OKC is no sure bet if your street is in bottom of a valley, i.e, S. Washington St. Cable in Stillwater only offers one Tulsa TV channel. However, some people may question of what relevance is quality of TV reception to this issue when so many people these days get their TV from the Internet.

According to citi-data.com, workers who live and work in Stillwater are at 85.6%, which helps explains why Stillwater is not in a CSA of a metro. For Bartlesville and Muskogee, it's 77.3% and 71.2%.

Stillwater will be Oklahoma's new metro, if covid pandemic didn't cut the census under 50,000.

[Bunty]

Even Tulsa CSA includes Bartlesville and Muskogee (towns more than 50 miles away - farther than OKC-Stillwater) that arguably are just as connected to Tulsa as Stillwater is to OKC (even same area code, etc).

Muskogee and Bartlesville are a bit under 50 miles from Tulsa. Stillwater is around 65 miles from OKC.

[BG918]

I don't think many people who work at OSU would want to deal with the hour long commute from living in Tulsa. Except for Sand Springs, the more popular suburbs would take even longer. Shorter to do and likely more popular is the 40 mile commute from living in Edmond.

Stillwater has stronger ties to OKC. This is because all the TV and almost all the radio station signals are stronger than the ones from Tulsa. Unlike the case with OKC, getting TV signals from Tulsa from just an indoor antenna can't be done. However, getting stable TV reception from OKC is no sure bet if your street is in bottom of a valley, i.e, S. Washington St. Cable in Stillwater only offers one Tulsa TV channel. However, some people may question of what relevance is quality of TV reception to this issue when so many people these days get their TV from the Internet.

According to citi-data.com, workers who live and work in Stillwater are at 85.6%, which helps explains why Stillwater is not in a CSA of a metro. For Bartlesville and Muskogee, it's 77.3% and 71.2%.

Stillwater will be Oklahoma's new metro, if covid pandemic didn't cut the census under 50,000.

I was thinking more of the OSU ties since OSU has its urban campus in downtown Tulsa along with its health sciences center and OSU Medical Center. There is also a bus that connects the two campuses that has nine daily trips between the two cities during the week. Downtown Tulsa to downtown Stillwater is 63 miles.

[Bunty]

I was thinking more of the OSU ties since OSU has its urban campus in downtown Tulsa along with its health sciences center and OSU Medical Center. There is also a bus that connects the two campuses that has nine daily trips between the two cities during the week. Downtown Tulsa to downtown Stillwater is 63 miles.

No doubt Tulsa, itself, feels a lot closer connection to OSU/Stillwater than it does to OU/Norman. Reflects that OSU is closer to Tulsa than OU. Otherwise, Stillwater townies feel closer to Oklahoma City. Penn Square and Quail Springs are closer than Tulsa's Woodland Hills. Compared to Penn Square Mall in OKC, the Promenade Mall in Tulsa is about gone.

[Plutonic Panda]

Pretty sure exurban sprawl will close the gap between OKC mad Stillwater before tulsa. I was pretty shocked at the amount of traffic on SH-33 and 177 during rush hour one day I went. They could almost convert that into a freeway which would be nice at some point.

[BG918]

Pretty sure exurban sprawl will close the gap between OKC mad Stillwater before tulsa. I was pretty shocked at the amount of traffic on SH-33 and 177 during rush hour one day I went. They could almost convert that into a freeway which would be nice at some point.

Guthrie/Cedar Valley and Edmond aren't even connected by sprawl yet, though that will likely happen eventually but still about 15-20 years away. Sprawl from Guthrie to Stillwater? Doubtful. I'm sure there are people who live in Stillwater "suburbs" like Langston and Perkins that commute into OKC just like there are likely people in Cushing and Drumright that commute into Tulsa along SH-33.

[Bunty]

Pretty sure exurban sprawl will close the gap between OKC mad Stillwater before tulsa. I was pretty shocked at the amount of traffic on SH-33 and 177 during rush hour one day I went. They could almost convert that into a freeway which would be nice at some point.

The expansion project to four lanes on Highway 33 needs to be finished between Langston to just west of Perkins, about a 9 mile project. I hope it's already planned and just needs funded.

[Plutonic Panda]

Guthrie/Cedar Valley and Edmond aren't even connected by sprawl yet, though that will likely happen eventually but still about 15-20 years away. Sprawl from Guthrie to Stillwater? Doubtful. I'm sure there are people who live in Stillwater "suburbs" like Langston and Perkins that commute into OKC just like there are likely people in Cushing and Drumright that commute into Tulsa along SH-33.

It will be much sooner than 10-15 years before Guthrie is connected to its sprawl. It’s happening as we speak and is halfway there.

[SEMIweather]

Yeah, there's a lot of subdivisions north of Waterloo all the way up to Forrest Hills road at this point.

[oklip955]

Give the east side of Edmond and the west side of Edmond ie Deer Creek area another 5 yrs at the rate its buildign up. People and builders are going north of Waterloo for cheaper land to build homes, some on acreages and some on smaller lots. (less then an ac) I would think in about 10 yrs there will be almost unbroken development to Guthrie. Guthrie has already annexed alot of land area but only a few ft wide swathes so that they will be in position to grow as the area builds up.

[lady_o]

Otherwise, Stillwater townies feel closer to Oklahoma City.

Anecdotal, but I grew up in Stillwater and felt closer to "the city" (OKC) than Tulsa. For big shopping trips we'd go to Edmond, which isn't too bad of a trip.

[HOT ROD]

There are certain criteria that have to be met for there to be a CSA or to be included in a CSA, and that is - adjacent Metropolitan and Micropolitan areas (each of which have their own definitions) have to have an employment interchange measure (EIM) of at least 15. EIM is defined as the sum of the percentage of employed residents of the smaller area who work in the larger area and the percentage of employment in the smaller area that is accounted for by workers who reside in the larger area. Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem CSA meets this criteria just like Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia CSA does.

Bartlesville micro and Muskogee micro meet this criteria for Tulsa metro, and Shawnee micro for OKC metro, whereas Stillwater micro does not for either OKC or Tulsa metros. The OKC metro and the Tulsa metro are already adjacent, and if the two metros had an EIM of at least 15, then that would create an OKC-Tulsa CSA.

I've been to both SLC and Sea-Tac-Olympia (live here), and SLC functions more like OKC-Stillwater CSA. Provo, Orem, and Ogden have very little or just about the same commute dependence on SLC as Stillwater does. ..

As I wrote, the US has very inconsistent CSA definitions. Chicago CSA - makes sense and prob should include Milwaukee IMO. SLC CSA - is a HUGE stretch just the same as OKC-SW CSA would be.

[HOT ROD]

Guthrie/Cedar Valley and Edmond aren't even connected by sprawl yet, though that will likely happen eventually but still about 15-20 years away. Sprawl from Guthrie to Stillwater? Doubtful. I'm sure there are people who live in Stillwater "suburbs" like Langston and Perkins that commute into OKC just like there are likely people in Cushing and Drumright that commute into Tulsa along SH-33.

Actually, Langston is an OKC suburb. Hence my point that STW could be in OKC's CSA.

[HOT ROD]

Anecdotal, but I grew up in Stillwater and felt closer to "the city" (OKC) than Tulsa. For big shopping trips we'd go to Edmond, which isn't too bad of a trip.

This is my point. A CSA exurb doesn't need to have FULL connection to the downtown central city of OKC; just need to have connection TO THE metro itself. Stillwater is surely better connected to OKC and the ONLY reason why it "isn't" is because OU is so close to downtown and OU generally is considered the big league school nationally (not necessarily starting a fight here, but people nationwide know OU).

Again, it is the same IMO to Provo to SLC or Ogden to SLC, NOT Olympia to Tacoma (which Olympia very well can be a suburb of Tacoma) to Seattle (while Tacoma is not a suburb, it is the 2nd city of the metro/area). .... ...

[Bunty]

This is my point. A CSA exurb doesn't need to have FULL connection to the downtown central city of OKC; just need to have connection TO THE metro itself. Stillwater is surely better connected to OKC and the ONLY reason why it "isn't" is because OU is so close to downtown and OU generally is considered the big league school nationally (not necessarily starting a fight here, but people nationwide know OU).

Again, it is the same IMO to Provo to SLC or Ogden to SLC, NOT Olympia to Tacoma (which Olympia very well can be a suburb of Tacoma) to Seattle (while Tacoma is not a suburb, it is the 2nd city of the metro/area). .... ...

But Provo and Ogden are both closer to Salt Lake CIty than is Stillwater from OKC. As a reflection of that fact, workers who both live and work in Provo is 53.9%. Workers who live and work in Ogden is 48.3%. In Stillwater it's 85.6%.

Hopefully, the debate can be settled by the census being able to declare Stillwater as Oklahoma's new metro.

[Plutonic Panda]

I've been to both SLC and Sea-Tac-Olympia (live here), and SLC functions more like OKC-Stillwater CSA. Provo, Orem, and Ogden have very little or just about the same commute dependence on SLC as Stillwater does. ..

As I wrote, the US has very inconsistent CSA definitions. Chicago CSA - makes sense and prob should include Milwaukee IMO. SLC CSA - is a HUGE stretch just the same as OKC-SW CSA would be.

SLC is a bit of an oddball with some exceptions like Park City almost all of the city is centered around I-15 in a long line.

[catch22]

It’s difficult to compare OKC to SLC. Mountain communities are much more dependent and economically connected to their nearest large cities than elsewhere. For example Denver has a profound influence on communities as far away as Rock Springs and Laramie WY than communities a similar distance from OKC. Geography absolutely plays a role.