Population Growth for OKC

[Rover]

Bentonville and Ft. Smith are 82.7 miles apart. Oklahoma City and Tulsa are separated by 97.6 miles. Dallas now claims Durant, OK some 87.1 apart.

If OKC (1,477,426} -TUL (1,044,757) were designated as one MSA, it would currently represent 2,522,183.

The OKC and TUL MSA's were promoted by former Mayor Mick Cornett as one TV market which boasts more than 1.15 million TV sets back in 2008 when the NBA arrived in Oklahoma. Now the combined TV set households have leveled at 1.28 million,

Why don’t we just count Wichita and Amarillo as ours too. Lol.

[josh]

Mayes County can see a big change. It's not even a micropolitain area because Pryor doesn't have 10,000 people. Yet. With the explosive growth at Mid-America park, Mayes County should be part of the Tulsa CSA and maybe even MSA someday based on commuting patterns to the park. But by US Census rule the primary city in a county has to have 10,000 people for the county to become a Micropolitan Area. Pryor needs 433 more people to get there. Once that happens I would expect Mayes to be added to the Tulsa CSA.

Cherokee County has gone back and forth with being part of the Tulsa CSA based on commuting patterns (I assume to Muskogee). It currently is not. Eventually as the Broken Arrow area grows towards Muskogee and the Owasso area grows towards Bartlesville, Washington and Muskogee counties will be part of the Tulsa MSA.

If it met the criteria to be added, it’d be added. It doesn’t. It’s that simple.

[UrbanistPoke]

Do you not know how the census works? They donÂ’t add cities or counties to a MSA or CSA because itÂ’s close by or some other nonsensical or anecdotal reasons. They go off commuter patterns and commuter percentage.

Also, if numbers are revised in one direction or the other, itÂ’s very minimal. ItÂ’s not a drastic number. Ever.

That is absolutely incorrect, but thanks for your opinion. There has been and will always be both minor and moderate changes in yearly numbers on anything the Census reports. BLS numbers can swing by thousands or even hundreds of thousands as well on national stats and even metro level stats. The data collection methods to estimate these are not the greatest - it is certainly a clear case of garbage in, garbage out. I deal with these data points every day of my life. So I'm well versed in how these all work, thank you. I also see the revisions nonstop. Go back a few months and look at inflation numbers and see how they were eventually revised down for many months. Every data piece collected and report is prone to errors and under/over estimates.

I am more than aware that commuter patterns are a big part of it as well. It's also an incredibly dumb metric to use with comparing how regions function together. You really think Muskogee, Bartlesville, and Pryor are so far removed from Tulsa they shouldn't be analyzed as part of the MSA while portions of Osage County are literally an hour further away than those cities? The biggest reason they are currently excluded is because they have large employment centers locally with is very a typical of exurb areas. Conoco Phillips in Bartlesville, Port of Muskogee/VA in Muskogee, Mid America in Pryor, etc. all reduce the dependency of those areas to Tulsa for commuting patterns. Doesn't mean this area doesn't function as one. Just like thinking Seminole, Kingfisher, and Pottawatomie County isn't part of the OKC metro when the OKC city limits literally extend into one of those counties and is less than 10 miles from the southeast edge of Kingfisher County.

[UrbanistPoke]

Why don’t we just count Wichita and Amarillo as ours too. Lol.

Well when looking at TV markets and regional pull ins - Wichita and Amarillo are in the scope of influence of Oklahoma City. You do realize Wichita is closer to both Oklahoma City and Tulsa than it is to Kansas City right? Look at a map. Oklahoma City pulls in a lot of regional visitors, etc. from Amarillo too - one of the major areas Oklahoma City is pulling in new population from out of state is the Amarillo MSA.

[UrbanistPoke]

Mayes County can see a big change. It's not even a micropolitain area because Pryor doesn't have 10,000 people. Yet. With the explosive growth at Mid-America park, Mayes County should be part of the Tulsa CSA and maybe even MSA someday based on commuting patterns to the park. But by US Census rule the primary city in a county has to have 10,000 people for the county to become a Micropolitan Area. Pryor needs 433 more people to get there. Once that happens I would expect Mayes to be added to the Tulsa CSA.

Cherokee County has gone back and forth with being part of the Tulsa CSA based on commuting patterns (I assume to Muskogee). It currently is not. Eventually as the Broken Arrow area grows towards Muskogee and the Owasso area grows towards Bartlesville, Washington and Muskogee counties will be part of the Tulsa MSA.

Cherokee County is another example like you mentioned. The Tulsa area has always been vastly under estimated in terms of regional population. When you consider those areas the population of the Tulsa area is easily over 1.2 million and pushing 1.3 million. Oklahoma City's chamber even includes Payne County (Stillwater) as part of the OKC metro area in marketing materials. It's dumb to dismiss the idea that these areas aren't connected and function together as a collective region just because some BS metric about commuting the Census uses especially given remote work. It's an antiquated model. There is a reason why the Thunder was successful because it was able to build up a big fan base in Wichita, Tulsa, etc. and any pro sports in this region would benefit from that as well. The Thunder is also pretty popular in NWA/SW Missouri too. OKC leadership pitching the broader reason was absolutely correct and should be done more often.

[josh]

That is absolutely incorrect, but thanks for your opinion. There has been and will always be both minor and moderate changes in yearly numbers on anything the Census reports. BLS numbers can swing by thousands or even hundreds of thousands as well on national stats and even metro level stats. The data collection methods to estimate these are not the greatest - it is certainly a clear case of garbage in, garbage out. I deal with these data points every day of my life. So I'm well versed in how these all work, thank you. I also see the revisions nonstop. Go back a few months and look at inflation numbers and see how they were eventually revised down for many months. Every data piece collected and report is prone to errors and under/over estimates.

I am more than aware that commuter patterns are a big part of it as well. It's also an incredibly dumb metric to use with comparing how regions function together. You really think Muskogee, Bartlesville, and Pryor are so far removed from Tulsa they shouldn't be analyzed as part of the MSA while portions of Osage County are literally an hour further away than those cities? The biggest reason they are currently excluded is because they have large employment centers locally with is very a typical of exurb areas. Conoco Phillips in Bartlesville, Port of Muskogee/VA in Muskogee, Mid America in Pryor, etc. all reduce the dependency of those areas to Tulsa for commuting patterns. Doesn't mean this area doesn't function as one. Just like thinking Seminole, Kingfisher, and Pottawatomie County isn't part of the OKC metro when the OKC city limits literally extend into one of those counties and is less than 10 miles from the southeast edge of Kingfisher County.

What I stated wasn’t opinion. It’s factual.

Also, you don’t think the Census and government entities don’t monitor the very things necessary to fit the criteria for the Census to deem a city or county viable to add to another metro,
Etc.


They sure as hell do. If they haven’t added or merged or included a place yet, it’s because it hasn’t met the requirements and criteria, no matter how much you THINK or BELIEVE it should.

[Bunty]

A long list of all cities in Oklahoma comparing 2020 population with 2024 population. OKC's suburbs are growing faster than Tulsa's.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/st...ities/oklahoma

[Rover]

Cherokee County is another example like you mentioned. The Tulsa area has always been vastly under estimated in terms of regional population. When you consider those areas the population of the Tulsa area is easily over 1.2 million and pushing 1.3 million. Oklahoma City's chamber even includes Payne County (Stillwater) as part of the OKC metro area in marketing materials. It's dumb to dismiss the idea that these areas aren't connected and function together as a collective region just because some BS metric about commuting the Census uses especially given remote work. It's an antiquated model. There is a reason why the Thunder was successful because it was able to build up a big fan base in Wichita, Tulsa, etc. and any pro sports in this region would benefit from that as well. The Thunder is also pretty popular in NWA/SW Missouri too. OKC leadership pitching the broader reason was absolutely correct and should be done more often.

There’s a difference in considering a marketing area and a metropolitan area. Quit conflating the two to try to promote Tulsa.

[Rover]

Well when looking at TV markets and regional pull ins - Wichita and Amarillo are in the scope of influence of Oklahoma City. You do realize Wichita is closer to both Oklahoma City and Tulsa than it is to Kansas City right? Look at a map. Oklahoma City pulls in a lot of regional visitors, etc. from Amarillo too - one of the major areas Oklahoma City is pulling in new population from out of state is the Amarillo MSA.

Wow. You actually took me seriously. lol. There is a difference in marketing areas and MSA and ADI. I was reflecting on arbitrarily drawing lines around areas to skew the appearance of growth, size and influence. These designations aren’t arbitrary. There are definitions and it isn’t opinion.

[Swake]

If it met the criteria to be added, it’d be added. It doesn’t. It’s that simple.

That's my point, Mayes county does yet meet the criteria, not based on commute patterns, but based on the central city of Pryor not having at least 10,000 people, which it will have in the next couple of years.

[G.Walker]

If Stillwater can ever reach 50,000 it will be considered a metro area. Then it will be interesting if they will include it in the Tulsa CSA or OKC CSA. Logistically Stillwater is exact same distance from both cities, and I would think there are more commuters and economic indicators in OKC than Tulsa.

Then we would have a Oklahoma City-Shawnee-Stillwater CSA.

[scottk]

If Stillwater can ever reach 50,000 it will be considered a metro area. Then it will be interesting if they will include it in the Tulsa CSA or OKC CSA. Logistically Stillwater is exact same distance from both cities, and I would think there are more commuters and economic indicators in OKC than Tulsa.

Then we would have a Oklahoma City-Shawnee-Stillwater CSA.

Wow..great question. I consider it part of OKC's outlying market, but Tulsa could make an equal justification based upon as you stated "as the crow files" in distance from the city. I don't know how many people the OSU-Tulsa campuses impact with commuters heading east? I would assume for OSU purposes, Tulsa has a higher percentage of OSU Alums, compared to OKC?

From a non-milage standpoint, Stillwater is rarely included in "Green Country" and is in the OKC TV Market, but the east side of Payne County (Cushing, Yale, etc) I would assume claims Tulsa more than OKC?

[G.Walker]

Wow..great question. I consider it part of OKC's outlying market, but Tulsa could make an equal justification based upon as you stated "as the crow files" in distance from the city. I don't know how many people the OSU-Tulsa campuses impact with commuters heading east? I would assume for OSU purposes, Tulsa has a higher percentage of OSU Alums, compared to OKC?

From a non-milage standpoint, Stillwater is rarely included in "Green Country" and is in the OKC TV Market, but the east side of Payne County (Cushing, Yale, etc) I would assume claims Tulsa more than OKC?

Also, Stillwater is in the 405 area code designation area, so there's that.

[BG918]

OSU has significantly greater ties to Tulsa with its urban campus, health science center and hospital all in downtown Tulsa. Overall economic ties are likely 50/50 split between OKC and Tulsa - the north side of Edmond and west side of Stillwater are growing faster than the west side of Tulsa and east side of Stillwater

[Swake]

If Stillwater can ever reach 50,000 it will be considered a metro area. Then it will be interesting if they will include it in the Tulsa CSA or OKC CSA. Logistically Stillwater is exact same distance from both cities, and I would think there are more commuters and economic indicators in OKC than Tulsa.

Then we would have a Oklahoma City-Shawnee-Stillwater CSA.

Stillwater is a micropolitan area today and would be included in a CSA if commuter patterns were large enough with OKC or Tulsa. .

[G.Walker]

Yes, but a designated metro area holds more weight than a micro area. We will see, unfortunately it probably won't be actually designated until the 2030 census.

[josh]

If Stillwater can ever reach 50,000 it will be considered a metro area. Then it will be interesting if they will include it in the Tulsa CSA or OKC CSA. Logistically Stillwater is exact same distance from both cities, and I would think there are more commuters and economic indicators in OKC than Tulsa.

Then we would have a Oklahoma City-Shawnee-Stillwater CSA.

It wouldn’t be based on size. It’s about commuting patterns. How hard of a concept is this for some of y’all to understand?

[UrbanistPoke]

It wouldn’t be based on size. It’s about commuting patterns. How hard of a concept is this for some of y’all to understand?

No, you should learn how to read and not reply just to troll. No one here is refuting commuting patterns being part of the consideration. In this example, it's perfectly reasonable to think as Stillwater grows and the fact that Guthrie is nearly a suburb of OKC now that Stillwater may eventually develop enough ties between either Tulsa or OKC to be grouped in. No where did anyone say it should at this second or that it is.

Just like my past comments you either didn't read/comprehend (I know they were challenging topics of discussion) or you just ignored them to be a troll. I stated my option on how dumb I think commuting patterns being such an important factor. People like you are insufferable to debate or discuss a topic over.

[UrbanistPoke]

Stillwater is a micropolitan area today and would be included in a CSA if commuter patterns were large enough with OKC or Tulsa. .

I wouldn't be that surprised if Enid ends up dropping its MSA designation, I think it's losing a few hundred people a year now. Stillwater I think is probably insulated enough that commuting patterns and other factors will never pull it into OKC or Tulsa MSA anytime soon. It's more likely to be a solo MSA area like Enid is now. I don't recall ever seeing the Census take into consideration student commuting patters I believe it is just employment commuting only. There's not many professors/ect with the university that commute into Stillwater from outside, it's mostly students who can't relocate or are working part or full time in addition to school and have to stay in Tulsa or OKC.

[UrbanistPoke]

That's my point, Mayes county does yet meet the criteria, not based on commute patterns, but based on the central city of Pryor not having at least 10,000 people, which it will have in the next couple of years.

I don't think he reads or if he does he's a troll or can't comprehend basic discussions.

[UrbanistPoke]

There’s a difference in considering a marketing area and a metropolitan area. Quit conflating the two to try to promote Tulsa.

What a ridiculously dumb response. Yes. I want to promote Tulsa AND Oklahoma City. Where did I say anything negative? I am literally pointing out stupid things about how the Census looks at MSA/CSA and gave examples of both areas. Do you read either? Tell me exactly where that response hurt you lol

[Rover]

What a ridiculously dumb response. Yes. I want to promote Tulsa AND Oklahoma City. Where did I say anything negative? I am literally pointing out stupid things about how the Census looks at MSA/CSA and gave examples of both areas. Do you read either? Tell me exactly where that response hurt you lol

Ouch. You got me. My turn to lol

[UrbanistPoke]

Ouch. You got me. My turn to lol

I guess with you someone could just jump out and say "Tulsa" instead of "Boo" and you'd freak out. I guess it's a forbidden word. Thou shall not say Tulsa on OKCTalk unless it's to **** on the city.

[Rover]

I guess with you someone could just jump out and say "Tulsa" instead of "Boo" and you'd freak out. I guess it's a forbidden word. Thou shall not say Tulsa on OKCTalk unless it's to **** on the city.

Got me again. That’s probably why I lived in Tulsa.

Now, if we can stop the school yard banter…

The earlier point made earlier is that some on here try so hard to promote the Tulsa area even when data doesn’t support it, and they don’t let it grow. A thread about OKC growth gets hijacked again.

You should start a thread on Tulsa growth.

[UrbanistPoke]

Got me again. That’s probably why I lived in Tulsa.

Then pull the stick out of your a** - must be difficult living there if you can't deal with anything halfway positive said.