Population Growth for OKC

[Bunty]

I wonder how many people are living in Oklahoma (or considering it) but working in the DFW area. Yeah, it would be a long drive. However, for some, it might be worth it to avoid the high property taxes in Texas.

Probably Texas property tax is higher than Oklahoma income tax. But add on cost of gas, car maintenance and the 3 to 4+ hour daily round trip and I'd be surprised if much growth from DFW spills over into south central Oklahoma. The nearest county to DFW, Love County, is so tiny in population that it still doesn't have a Walmart. Living in Gainesville, which isn't growing especially crazy fast, would be more attractive.

[jedicurt]

Maybe people finally reached their breaking point with the cost of living there.

for my friends who moved out of Denver, it was because they went fully remote during the pandemic and are with companies that are staying that way. so they had the thought process of "i moved to denver to be close to the mountians and still work, but now i can be even closer to the mountains and still work." So i have had friends leave Denver for golden and boulder, and then i have even had quite a few leave and move to places actually in the mountains like Frisco. they were pretty quick to pull the trigger, but have said that many others have done the same and almost all housing in places (especially along I-70) is pretty much completely full.

[PhiAlpha]

for my friends who moved out of Denver, it was because they went fully remote during the pandemic and are with companies that are staying that way. so they had the thought process of "i moved to denver to be close to the mountians and still work, but now i can be even closer to the mountains and still work." So i have had friends leave Denver for golden and boulder, and then i have even had quite a few leave and move to places actually in the mountains like Frisco. they were pretty quick to pull the trigger, but have said that many others have done the same and almost all housing in places (especially along I-70) is pretty much completely full.

Yeah similarly I have friends who are remote, realized that they could move somewhere with a lower COL then go to the mountains just as much as they do living in Denver with a few $100-$200 flights per year and still come out on top by a long shot with a higher quality of life for the 90% of their lives they don’t spend in the mountains. Weekend traffic to get up into the mountains has become absolutely insane when it has always been tough so that’s limited a lot of my friend’s willingness to go up there frequently unless they have Friday or Monday off. I love Denver and part of me has always wanted to move up there but I’ve soured on it as well as it’s just not worth the trade off inconveniences when it’s so cheap and easy to get there with minimal advanced planning

[BG918]

Lived in Denver for a decade. 2014-2018 were the golden years - high growth but housing prices weren’t yet insane, downtown was booming with Union Station reopening, tons of new restaurants, Broncos winning the Super Bowl, etc COVID and not keeping homelessness in check really ruined downtown while the cost of living skyrocketed. Poor air quality is also a big turnoff - not just summer smog but also winter inversions (not as bad as Salt Lake City though)

[Pete]

I've read that the businesses in downtown Denver were very reliant on office workers, which have dwindled since the pandemic.

Looks like they are trying to provide incentives to convert some of that empty office space into housing.

[Teo9969]

From what I've gathered from people who live in naturally beautiful and "geographically advantaged" places is that you have to be super intentional with utilizing it otherwise it's just not worth it.

I guess the exception would be the year-round nice weather in a place like Southern California that allows you to eat on a patio every time you go out to eat.

Even so, most people just seem to be pretty content to go home and live their lives relatively within their bubble (home and maybe a few square miles). LIke, I get the attraction to some of these places, but to PhiAlpha's point, it's so hard to see how it's worth a substantially higher cost of living.

[PhiAlpha]

I've read that the businesses in downtown Denver were very reliant on office workers, which have dwindled since the pandemic.

Looks like they are trying to provide incentives to convert some of that empty office space into housing.

Yeah and the city deciding to tear up and revamp the 16th mall, which put massive walls around the median/park area, moved the mall ride busses to 15th and 17th, and created weird dead ends that make the sidewalks difficult to navigate is really putting hardship on some of them. It was initially supposed to last a year and I think they're on about a quarter of the way through year two with no end in sight based on how torn up it looked when I was up there a few weeks ago. Basically, imagine if they did Project 180 all at once and took 3 years to finish it with plenty of long pauses in between. The mall will be nice when it wraps up but between that and the aftermath of the pandemic, there may not be many business on it by then.

[UrbanistPoke]

According to the Census Bureau, the OKC MSA added 17969 people between 2022 and 2023.

Healthy and sustainable growth.

Would not be surprised if that doesn't eventually get revised up. I think it's been revised up in past years for both OKC and Tulsa MSA's. I had saw something from the Tulsa chamber showing 30,000 in-migration to the MSA area in 2021-2022 and similar numbers for OKC.

[G.Walker]

My best friend lives in Dallas, and he loves coming up here to visit. He says Oklahoma is "slow". But he likes the fact that it doesn't take 30 minutes to get anywhere. He also like that he can get a hotel in Bricktown and have a good time without having to get a car. He can go have a nice meal, go to the arena and watch a game, go to the clubs, without getting in car. He can park is car, and still have a good time, Dallas you can't do that.

[Rover]

Would not be surprised if that doesn't eventually get revised up. I think it's been revised up in past years for both OKC and Tulsa MSA's. I had saw something from the Tulsa chamber showing 30,000 in-migration to the MSA area in 2021-2022 and similar numbers for OKC.

Then there must have been a big out migration as well.

[mugofbeer]

I've read that the businesses in downtown Denver were very reliant on office workers, which have dwindled since the pandemic.

Looks like they are trying to provide incentives to convert some of that empty office space into housing.

I can confirm that much of east downtown Denver is hurting. Several older office towers, including one l used to work in, are mostly empty. Covid was a big reason but the decline started with the George Floyd riots damaging buildings and leaving a stigma, significant parts near Broadway being taken over by homeless and rampant drug use, insufficient police protection due to the city's "defund police" politics, a stagnant oil & gas industry and legislative hostility, significant new office construction in the west part of downtown (LODO), higher street crime rates and most recently, the closure and renovation of sections the 16th Street Mall which required businesses to close during construction.

Downtown Denver has seen huge amounts of residential construction and many areas are still lively and vibrant but not in the east downtown sections or around the City/County - State Capitol area. This is where there are several large office buildings being considered for conversion to apartments. Unfortunately, the city has little money to help fund conversions because of massive spending ($150 million) spending on homeless and migrants.

My wife and l used to visit downtown frequently at night and had no problems in most areas but the level of safety and activity has significantly declined around that east section which is very sad. Just 5 years ago downtown was a beautiful place to be proud of and take visitors to. The city allowed this to happen by allowing the homeless/drug addicted to run amok for several years.

[PhiAlpha]

Then there must have been a big out migration as well.

the out migration has been Tulsa proper, the MSA has grown.

[Rover]

the out migration has been Tulsa proper, the MSA has grown.

But not 30,000 worth, as implied.

[PhiAlpha]

I can confirm that much of east downtown Denver is hurting. Several older office towers, including one l used to work in, are mostly empty. Covid was a big reason but the decline started with the George Floyd riots damaging buildings and leaving a stigma, significant parts near Broadway being taken over by homeless and rampant drug use, insufficient police protection due to the city's "defund police" politics, a stagnant oil & gas industry and legislative hostility, significant new office construction in the west part of downtown (LODO), higher street crime rates and most recently, the closure and renovation of sections the 16th Street Mall which required businesses to close during construction.

Downtown Denver has seen huge amounts of residential construction and many areas are still lively and vibrant but not in the east downtown sections or around the City/County - State Capitol area. This is where there are several large office buildings being considered for conversion to apartments. Unfortunately, the city has little money to help fund conversions because of massive spending ($150 million) spending on homeless and migrants.

My wife and l used to visit downtown frequently at night and had no problems in most areas but the level of safety and activity has significantly declined around that east section which is very sad. Just 5 years ago downtown was a beautiful place to be proud of and take visitors to. The city allowed this to happen by allowing the homeless/drug addicted to run amok for several years.

Yeah Covid and specifically the George Floyd stuff was the the point at which my friends living downtown said they really noticed things start accelerating downhill. Though the homeless problem was already a massive issue leading up to all of that.

[PhiAlpha]

But not 30,000 worth, as implied.

Not sure but he might have misheard/misremembered the timeframe. Tulsa’s estimated growth between April 2020 and July 2023 was about 30,000.

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa.../46140__tulsa/

[UrbanistPoke]

Not sure but he might have misheard/misremembered the timeframe. Tulsa’s estimated growth between April 2020 and July 2023 was about 30,000.

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa.../46140__tulsa/

This was population data presented by the chamber - I'll have to see if I can re dig that up. It was discussed at regional meetings first of last year and it was net in-migration and both OKC and Tulsa MSA areas were top 10 nationally of MSA's over 1 million. Oklahoma also is one of the few states that has a higher birthrate than death rate too currently. I do not think the Census information on growth for either Oklahoma City or Tulsa is accurate - just based on housing starts, etc. it is very likely that it will all be revised up. None of that data is very accurate and they always go back after the original releases just like they do with BLS information.

Oklahoma City is still growing a bit faster than Tulsa but Tulsa MSA is catching up purely on the percentage growth. By total #'s OKC is still outpacing Tulsa easily. OKC is still growing percentage wise slower than NWA. But it is highly likely all three MSA's are going to have 20-30% population growth between 2020-2030 census which will place them in some of the fastest growing large MSA's nationally. NWA percentage wise is growing nearly as fast as Austin (just not on a total population number wise). I wouldn't be shocked if the NWA MSA ends up absorbing both the Joplin and Fort Smith MSA's. Most likely given the northern growth from Bentonville, Joplin could be absorbed into a single region first. That corridor just pasted the 1 million mark now between Ft. Smith - NWA - Joplin.

[HOT ROD]

Interesting bit I found is the difference in density, OKC MSA and CSA is almost twice as dense as Tulsa's. You'd expect that not to be the case given Tulsa often touting its urban density as a positive when compared to Oklahoma City. Tulsa MSA is just short of the same area as OKC's CSA, with ~500K less people.

Honestly, I don't see why the census carves out Pot county from the OKC MSA when OKC has city limits in that county, and im sure a very significant (if not most) people in Shawnee work and definitely shop in OKC. Probably also time to start adding Kingfisher County even though right now it wouldn't move the needle much.

I'm not sure I agree about the aformentioned combination of NW Arkansas/Missouri into a larger MSA. CSA perhaps, but even then that's a distance from OKC to Tulsa that isn't fully urbanized along the distance. Let NWA unseat Little Rock first before we get too carried away..

[Rover]

This was population data presented by the chamber - I'll have to see if I can re dig that up. It was discussed at regional meetings first of last year and it was net in-migration and both OKC and Tulsa MSA areas were top 10 nationally of MSA's over 1 million. Oklahoma also is one of the few states that has a higher birthrate than death rate too currently. I do not think the Census information on growth for either Oklahoma City or Tulsa is accurate - just based on housing starts, etc. it is very likely that it will all be revised up. None of that data is very accurate and they always go back after the original releases just like they do with BLS information.

Oklahoma City is still growing a bit faster than Tulsa but Tulsa MSA is catching up purely on the percentage growth. By total #'s OKC is still outpacing Tulsa easily. OKC is still growing percentage wise slower than NWA. But it is highly likely all three MSA's are going to have 20-30% population growth between 2020-2030 census which will place them in some of the fastest growing large MSA's nationally. NWA percentage wise is growing nearly as fast as Austin (just not on a total population number wise). I wouldn't be shocked if the NWA MSA ends up absorbing both the Joplin and Fort Smith MSA's. Most likely given the northern growth from Bentonville, Joplin could be absorbed into a single region first. That corridor just pasted the 1 million mark now between Ft. Smith - NWA - Joplin.

Bentonville to Ft Smith are way too separate to be in a singe MSA. If so, maybe OKC MSA should include Tulsa to look bigger.

[UrbanistPoke]

Bentonville to Ft Smith are way too separate to be in a singe MSA. If so, maybe OKC MSA should include Tulsa to look bigger.

The distance from Joplin to Ft Smith is a bit further than Bartlesville to Henryetta (90 ish miles) or say Guthrie to Purcell (65 ish miles) or Shawnee to El Reno (65 ish miles as well). Joplin to Fayetteville is 80 ish miles. Joplin to Ft Smith is 130 ish miles. It's not that far fetched that Joplin is going to be absorbed into NWA growth in the next 10-20 years, especially with so much housing demand to be close/proximate to Bentonville. In 20 years NWA MSA could be nearly the same size as Little Rock MSA even without Joplin. Now that I-49 and the Bella Vista bypass is done there's a lot of residential popping up in southern Missouri north of Bella Vista. Granted the terrain south of Fayetteville is very challenging so Ft Smith probably is a bit far fetched to think it would be absorbed into NWA growth anytime soon, but point being that corridor is far more populated than people give it credit for passing 1 million recently. NWA population growth rates are pretty crazy with you look at it compared to other MSA's over 400,000 and hard to think it's going to slow down anytime soon either.

[UrbanistPoke]

Interesting bit I found is the difference in density, OKC MSA and CSA is almost twice as dense as Tulsa's. You'd expect that not to be the case given Tulsa often touting its urban density as a positive when compared to Oklahoma City. Tulsa MSA is just short of the same area as OKC's CSA, with ~500K less people.

Honestly, I don't see why the census carves out Pot county from the OKC MSA when OKC has city limits in that county, and im sure a very significant (if not most) people in Shawnee work and definitely shop in OKC. Probably also time to start adding Kingfisher County even though right now it wouldn't move the needle much.

I'm not sure I agree about the aformentioned combination of NW Arkansas/Missouri into a larger MSA. CSA perhaps, but even then that's a distance from OKC to Tulsa that isn't fully urbanized along the distance. Let NWA unseat Little Rock first before we get too carried away..

It's because Osage County is within the Tulsa MSA. This is why you should always take MSA/CSA etc from the Census with a grain of salt. It's not always the best measurements. Kingfisher and Pottawattamie should absolutely be within the OKC MSA. Much like Washington, Muskogee, and Mayes should be in Tulsa's MSA. Especially when you have Osage County grouped in. 95% of Osage County's population is in that far southeast corner just outside downtown Tulsa by Tulsa County Club/Gilcrease. Osage County is one of the largest counties by land area in the United States. If you draw a straight line from the NW to SE corner it is 72 miles. Straight line west to east along Highway 60/through Pawhuska is 60 miles. It's huge and is also one of, if not the least densely populated areas of the state - similar density to the panhandle.

Muskogee is less than 50 miles to downtown Tulsa and is about a 50 minute drive downtown to downtown. Pryor is 40 miles downtown to downtown and a 45 minute drive. While Grainola (population 30 people) in NW Osage county is part of the Tulsa MSA and is over 90 miles and a 2 hour drive.

[Swake]

It's because Osage County is within the Tulsa MSA. This is why you should always take MSA/CSA etc from the Census with a grain of salt. It's not always the best measurements. Kingfisher and Pottawattamie should absolutely be within the OKC MSA. Much like Washington, Muskogee, and Mayes should be in Tulsa's MSA. Especially when you have Osage County grouped in. 95% of Osage County's population is in that far southeast corner just outside downtown Tulsa by Tulsa County Club/Gilcrease. Osage County is one of the largest counties by land area in the United States. If you draw a straight line from the NW to SE corner it is 72 miles. Straight line west to east along Highway 60/through Pawhuska is 60 miles. It's huge and is also one of, if not the least densely populated areas of the state - similar density to the panhandle.

Tulsa is the largest city in Osage County, and less than 5% of Tulsa is in Osage County. The only stoplights in the whole county are in Tulsa and Skiatook, which is also almost entirely in Tulsa County. You get not very away from Tulsa and Osage County has very few people, it's Just hills, grass and cows. And the county is massive, larger than Rhode Island or Delaware.

[BG918]

Tulsa is the largest city in Osage County, and less than 5% of Tulsa is in Osage County. The only stoplights in the whole county are in Tulsa and Skiatook, which is also almost entirely in Tulsa County. You get not very away from Tulsa and Osage County has very few people, it's Just hills, grass and cows. And the county is massive, larger than Rhode Island or Delaware.

That’s crazy

[josh]

It's because Osage County is within the Tulsa MSA. This is why you should always take MSA/CSA etc from the Census with a grain of salt. It's not always the best measurements. Kingfisher and Pottawattamie should absolutely be within the OKC MSA. Much like Washington, Muskogee, and Mayes should be in Tulsa's MSA. Especially when you have Osage County grouped in. 95% of Osage County's population is in that far southeast corner just outside downtown Tulsa by Tulsa County Club/Gilcrease. Osage County is one of the largest counties by land area in the United States. If you draw a straight line from the NW to SE corner it is 72 miles. Straight line west to east along Highway 60/through Pawhuska is 60 miles. It's huge and is also one of, if not the least densely populated areas of the state - similar density to the panhandle.

Muskogee is less than 50 miles to downtown Tulsa and is about a 50 minute drive downtown to downtown. Pryor is 40 miles downtown to downtown and a 45 minute drive. While Grainola (population 30 people) in NW Osage county is part of the Tulsa MSA and is over 90 miles and a 2 hour drive.

Do you not know how the census works? They donÂ’t add cities or counties to a MSA or CSA because itÂ’s close by or some other nonsensical or anecdotal reasons. They go off commuter patterns and commuter percentage.

Also, if numbers are revised in one direction or the other, itÂ’s very minimal. ItÂ’s not a drastic number. Ever.

[Laramie]

Bentonville to Ft Smith are way too separate to be in a singe MSA. If so, maybe OKC MSA should include Tulsa to look bigger.

Bentonville and Ft. Smith are 82.7 miles apart. Oklahoma City and Tulsa are separated by 97.6 miles. Dallas now claims Durant, OK some 87.1 apart.

If OKC (1,477,426} -TUL (1,044,757) were designated as one MSA, it would currently represent 2,522,183.

The OKC and TUL MSA's were promoted by former Mayor Mick Cornett as one TV market which boasts more than 1.15 million TV sets back in 2008 when the NBA arrived in Oklahoma. Now the combined TV set households have leveled at 1.28 million,

[Swake]

Do you not know how the census works? They donÂ’t add cities or counties to a MSA or CSA because itÂ’s close by or some other nonsensical or anecdotal reasons. They go off commuter patterns and commuter percentage.

Also, if numbers are revised in one direction or the other, itÂ’s very minimal. ItÂ’s not a drastic number. Ever.

Mayes County can see a big change. It's not even a micropolitain area because Pryor doesn't have 10,000 people. Yet. With the explosive growth at Mid-America park, Mayes County should be part of the Tulsa CSA and maybe even MSA someday based on commuting patterns to the park. But by US Census rule the primary city in a county has to have 10,000 people for the county to become a Micropolitan Area. Pryor needs 433 more people to get there. Once that happens I would expect Mayes to be added to the Tulsa CSA.

Cherokee County has gone back and forth with being part of the Tulsa CSA based on commuting patterns (I assume to Muskogee). It currently is not. Eventually as the Broken Arrow area grows towards Muskogee and the Owasso area grows towards Bartlesville, Washington and Muskogee counties will be part of the Tulsa MSA.