OKC WRWA 2010 Q4 O&D Figures

[venture]

The 2010 Q4 data is now available, so I'll be working on publishing the information here and providing some observations. I'm going to do this in chunks, so only a handful of cities at a time. Eventually we'll hit all 100 markets on the OKC O&D (origin and destination) report. The comparisons are against the same period (Q4) in 2009. Codes you'll see...

AA - American
CO - Continental (now United)
DL - Delta
F9 - Frontier
NW - Northwest (now Delta)
UA - United
WN - Southwest

Pax - Passengers
Ppd - Pax per day

Top 10 2010 Q4

The Top 10 remained completely unchanged in the fact of who they were and the order they came in, but there was some movement internally with each city.

1. Houston, TX - Largest carrier remained WN, but they did experience a 10% pt drop in their market share (down to 62%). Pax per day has increased almost 150 to 596. Fares on the route have come up around $21.
2. Denver, CO - Some changes for the DEN market from OKC. WN has taken the lead in market share from UA, however F9 still is the low fare leader in the market. WN is controlling roughly 40%, with F9 holding on to 27%. UA is coming in around 31%. The average fare is $129 on WN whereas F9 is around $114. The market has increased by 87 pax per day and fares are remained mostly unchanged.
3. Las Vegas, NV - Gain of 59 pax per day. WN continues to control the market, and now has 73% of the market, up from 52%. Fares have also gone up $12. Delta is now the low fare leader on the route, replacing F9.
4. New York, NY - Pax numbers are up 79 ppd. AA continues to be market share leader at 29% (down from 31%) and DL remained low fare leader picking up more market share - now 27% from 21%. Average fare was $233 a jump of $34 from 2009.
5. Chicago, IL - AA retains control here at a steady 40% market share. WN has given up being the low fare leader on the route to AA. Avg fare is now $204 up just 5 dollars from last year. Ppd numbers has also increased by 24.
6. Phoenix, AZ - WN retains control here with market share increasing from 72 to 75%. Fares have gone up $11, but ppd numbers have dropped 10. DL replaced F9 as low fare leader with only 4% market share, but a low fare that is $48 higher than last year (now $196).
7. Dallas, TX - WN retains command here, but is slipping. Market share for WN is down 8 points to 60% and fares are up $8. Ppd have gone up 12.
8. Baltimore, MD - WN has control of the market with a fairly steady 65% and a stable pax market. Fares have gone up $22 since last year. AA has replaced DL as low fare leader, but even the low fare has gone up from 179 to 192.
9. Orlando, FL - Orlando showed strong growth with ppd going up 41 and fares stable. WN has control of 40% of the market, up from 35%. They are, however, no longer the low fare leader with DL replacing.
10. Los Angeles, CA - LA is fairly flat with only a 3 ppd growth. Fares have come up $17 from last year. UA remains market share leader at 49% and F9 remained low fare leader at 11% market share.

So some side thoughts here. Houston is showing great growth in the market, which could help convince UA to start converting more flights to mainline. Southwest is winning DEN simply based on reputation as F9 has maintained offering lower fares.

Overall, and we'll see this as I post more city data, markets where Southwest has at least a 50% market share - which is 25 of 98 markets with 10 or more ppd - has seen fare increased on the average of $36. Markets where the other airlines have controlled at least 50% of the market have seen their fares only go up $3 on average. So Southwest may not charge for bag fees, but they are getting the "missing" revenue through systematic and quiet increases in the fares - especially in markets they dominate.

This really isn't shocking as any good, solid business should do the same. It also highlights that Southwest is firmly kicking back and enjoying the yields they pull from OKC and it is going to take an new low cost carrier to come to really see fares start to go back down again here.

[ljbab728]

None of that really surprises me. Other than occasional sales promotions Southwest is rarely the best choice anymore for price. It has a definite advantage when looking at nonstop destinations and vacation destinations. For families on vacation, the free baggage can make a significant difference. Business travelers, for the most part, gravitate away from Southwest. For instance, most business travelers that I deal with going to Chicago prefer a nonstop into O'Hare on American or United even if their destination is closer to Midway. The only plus Southwest has for business travelers, who tend to make changes frequently, is that they don't charge a fee for flight changes.

[rayhurst]

That's great info. I posted in another thread the fact that NYC looks like the best option for a new NS flight as it is 4th on the O&D list and one of only 2 of the top ten O&D markets without a NS if you don't include EWR (Orlando being the other). Seems like a perfect fit for AA to connect us to one more of their hubs.

BTW, where do you get that info? Is it readily available on the internet somewhere?

[venture]

That's great info. I posted in another thread the fact that NYC looks like the best option for a new NS flight as it is 4th on the O&D list and one of only 2 of the top ten O&D markets without a NS if you don't include EWR (Orlando being the other). Seems like a perfect fit for AA to connect us to one more of their hubs.

BTW, where do you get that info? Is it readily available on the internet somewhere?

Info is here: http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/x-5...farereport.htm

AA should be able to make a nonstop work now, with carrying 97 passengers a day themselves to New York. The probably is aircraft. They are limited in the number of CRJ-700s. The ERJs would be weight restricted making them expensive to operate. The next option would be either a MD-80 or 737-800, which might be too much airplane. We'll have to also wait and see what their big narrowbody order looks like in the next few months.

[blangtang]

why the big jump in houston?

[SkyWestOKC]

Energy sector.

[ljbab728]

That's great info. I posted in another thread the fact that NYC looks like the best option for a new NS flight as it is 4th on the O&D list and one of only 2 of the top ten O&D markets without a NS if you don't include EWR (Orlando being the other). Seems like a perfect fit for AA to connect us to one more of their hubs.

A nonstop to LGA would be nice but I'm not sure why you wouldn't count Newark. It's not much further from Manhatten. JFK is really out of the question as far as viability as a nonstop.
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