Yea, given the myriad of state and federal subsidies made available, the market penetration to date is effectively zero, and most of those subsidies are set to roll off in the near future. And on the point of Oklahomans being unaware, I’d note that we do have a handful of oil executives who fully subscribe to the theory of Not Getting High Off Their Own Supply: https://evadoption.com/ev-market-sha...t-share-state/
There will always be people doubling down on buggy whips. Oklahoma, where we have surreys with fringe on top. Deny climate change. Deny technology progress. Ignore market sentiment shifts. Don’t know exactly when the snowball starts rolling downhill, but it will happen. Debating whether it is 10 years or twent is a fools exercise.... but it will come.
MIT study, says cost of raw matierial for batteries will continue to climb. If they can't bring the cost of EV's down, EV's will continue to serve a niche of the green wealthy.
https://www.eenews.net/energywire/20...ies/1061595837
3-year study raises doubts about EVs' future
The future of transportation may be less electric and less shared than some think, and millennials won't change that, according to a study published yesterday by the MIT Energy Initiative.
The initiative's engineers, economists and transportation planners spent three years investigating how technology, policy, infrastructure and consumer choice would affect the transportation sector of the future. They came away with a dim view about the pace of global change toward the most low-carbon forms of travel.
Within the next decade, EVs aren't likely to reach parity with gas cars on the upfront cost — a projection that contradicts much of the settled wisdom among energy researchers and would likely dampen the competitiveness of all-electric models, according to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology report.
The problem is that lithium-ion batteries, the chief source of cost for EVs, are "very unlikely" to hit their key price threshold of $100 per kilowatt-hour by 2030, the researchers wrote.
Battery packs were about two to three times that cost in 2017, and the Energy Department is aiming to bring the price to $125 per kilowatt-hour by 2022.
The $100 target could be reached only if the prices of battery minerals — cobalt, lithium and nickel — remain at the level they were at in 2016
And thirty years ago all energy experts said oil was going to $200 per barrel. Yep, these guys are so right. Lol.
So, here is an article saying electric car price parity in three years. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/electric-cars-could-be-as-affordable-as-conventional-vehicles-in-just-three-years
Someone please educate me on this, as I am very unfamiliar with electric vehicles and the batteries. Let’s assume that at some point in the near future, the infrastructure is in place and electric vehicles are competing with gasoline vehicles. Won’t natural gas be the primary source to recharge these batteries? If so, seems like many oil and gas companies would start concentrating their efforts on nat gas.
Ignore rover he’s just gaslighting a huge national energy transition to take a shot about how Oklahoma sucks. It’s super helpful.
The scenario that eventually plays out is cars switch to electric.
Power generation slowly switches to a mix of nat gas wind solar. The wind and solar need to have battery fields that store power when the wind doesn’t blow, and the sun doesn’t shine. And where are they going to get these batteries? Used cars. Once an electric car’s battery depletes down to 80% capacity. It needs to be replaced. That doesn’t matter quite as much when storing excess energy from the grid and provides a steady cheap supply.
There was an article yesterday about a Bill Gates-backed solar energy company that has achieved a serious breakthrough in being able to generate enough heat to drive big industrial processes, including the manufacturing of concrete and steel. And can do if for less money.
That looks like a big inflection point because those two industries alone are responsible for a significant amount of CO2 emissions.
Cars are relatively clean these days anyway. In my 25 years in California, it went from frequent, escalating smog alerts to smog almost being nonexistent due to the stricter Cali emission standards.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/19/busin...tes/index.html
Gas prices are also highest in the United States.
Real estate sign in front of the white and glass CHK building at NW 63 and Classen. That's a whole lot of office space for sale or lease.
Since the original design was supposed to mimic a college campus, wonder if any private universities or for profit schools will look at this area for expansion, or put a law school or MBA program here.
Au Contrere. I love Oklahoma. I just don’t buy into the fossil fuel propaganda. I’ve done projects involving large scale wind and solar plants. One of my good friends is The Godfather of wind power in China. Another an advanced solar panel and absorption panel manufacturer in Germany. I have much firsthand knowledge of technologies in the field.
Btw, storage of energy takes many forms. The idea that it is only batteries in the conventional thinking like flashlight or cell phone batteries is ignorant of the other technologies which make wind and solar more efficient and effective. And solar takes the top off the demand peaks making even traditional power production more efficient.
Btw, solar isn’t just about photovoltaic panels. Concentrated solar is huge. And, Solar additions to such things as hvac systems and hot water systems cut electric consumption considerably.
There's not that many practical ways of storing energy for a vehicle with current technology. You have more options when storing excess energy for from the grid because most of those options require a large of space. Maybe there will be advances in some form of biological battery. I guess if lithium prices go through the roof, hydrogen will be more economical again. We can all drive around in our personal Hindenburg.
Just curious as to what range you think an electric car needs to be practical and desirable.
Part of the overall efficiency of electric cars is that it can shift electrical demand on the grid from peak times to off peak times, thereby reducing the demand for more generation. Cars can be charged in non-peak (ie, overnight) hours thereby making our current generation system more effective.
These energy and ev arguments all go the same way with no real conclusion. It’s interesting to me that people tend to trench themselves into their “side” and the discussion becomes emotional and pointless. Kinda like political conversations on these forums.
The transition to EV’s and green energy will not happen at the drop of the hat. As of 3rd quarter 2018, EV’s only made up less than 1% of all cars in the US. I’m sure that number has climbed some, but not significantly. I do agree that EV’s will be a phenomenal option for those who commute to work and back primarily. Especially in large cities like LA or Houston. We live in Oklahoma though where most people have to travel large distances from town to town. These towns are often in rural areas, are of low socioeconomic status, and have limited modern infrastructure. Because of this, it will be some time before they truly take off here and other flyover states.
The other issue with EV’s is that there are few making them. Tesla is the primary vendor and it seems like they are constantly having production issues. We’ll see if they can get it figured out. I believe, that the big 3 will be the catalysts to get things moving faster. They have the resources. Speaking of...resources are another limiting factor for batteries. We’ll simply need to find new sources of lithium. There isn’t currently enough to ultimately supply the growth for the world that is needed.
Finally, green energy will take some time to phase in. Over the past decade, we have seen a huge surge of wind turbines all over the state and Midwest. They have progressed so far that we can see the impinging on the west side of okc. Even still, wind energy supply still hasn’t caught up with hydro. We only get 6.5% of our power from wind...which is a nice jump from several years ago. Hydro supplies 7%, solar is at a measly 1.5%, and all petroleum gives us about 68%.
All that said, we aren’t quite there yet. You’ll probably see a slow transition over the next decade or so. I would be really surprised to see a mix of 50-50 for EV’s and ICE by 2030. Regardless, oil and gas will be around for a while longer yet.
I don’t know why, but there is a weird symbol on all of my apostrophes and quotes up above. Sorry about that...
"There are few making them..."
These companies have electric cars currently available and all have many more in the production queue:
Audi, BMW, Chevy, Fiat, Ford, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar, Kia, Mercedes, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Peugot, Reunalt, Smart, Telsa, VW.
And there are a bunch of other electric-only companies that have cars out now with a bunch more in the works.
It's a fair point that as a percentage there aren't a ton of EV's on the road right now, but the change with new production is well underway.
Ah yeah. I don’t know how all those companies slipped my mind. Tesla seems to be the dominant focus for these conversations it seems. It will be interesting to see how this all ramps up. It will also be interesting to see how demand for these vehicles changes over the years. Personally, I like the idea of hybrids, but that’s just me.
Two common themes among those companies ......... they are producing a high end luxury EV to compete with Tesla ........... or they're putting an EV into their product line to help them meet the MPG standard set by CAFE.
There won't be mass adaption of EV's until battery costs drop dramatically and battery range increases a lot. Until then, they will fill a niche market of the wealthy greenies.
And EV's will continue to be powered by electricity generated by coal and nat gas, until the enviro left gets out of the way of nuclear generation. Wind and solar will never generate enough to over come the intermittency problem. That's not my opinion, that's the opinion of the Father of Global Warming, Dr James Hansen and others. When Hansen was head of NASA , he was the first person to testify about the problem of global warming to Congress in 1989. He says nuclear is the only path forward to an electric economy.
Virtually every car company and many other very motivated (by money) scientists are working on these issues and that's when big breakthroughs happen.
In 2011, no car had a range over 100 miles. As of 2018, several could go over 300 miles on a single charge, representing a huge increase in just 7 years.
The issue is not how many EV's are on the road now, it's that everyone in this business is now focused on electric. That is the big pivot point; the tech is just a matter of time.
The " battery brreakthrough " has been promised for 10 years now and they're no closer.
And I believe those range numbers, when I actually experience them. Range is like MPG , every body lies about it. Range also varies with climate, it might get those range numbers if the car is operated in San Diego, but in harsher climates, the heater, a/c , defroster, et al are gonna drag down the range.
But it doesn't matter, cuz unless a lot of money gets invested in nuclear generation, these EV's will forever be coal/nat gas cars. Renewables will never power the transporation sector.
Here ya go, see what the greenies have to say about renewables
https://environmentaljusticetv.wordp...bles-enough-2/
Actually this has changed dramatically... Range and MPG numbers are now routinely underestimated.
Most tests done by car mags and other testers have demonstrated that.
And those range numbers are on a brand new battery, which degrades with every charge.
But it doesn't matter if the electricity is generated by a nat gas plant.
Renewables will never power the transportation sector, never. The scale needed is immense and the intermittency problems will never be solved. People have been working on ways to store large amounts of electricity since Franklyn flew his kite.
Bill Gates spoke to this several months ago ..........
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xe3BWPsBTU
Here in Oklahoma , we get wind energy when we don't need it and don't get it when we do. In March and April, the wind really blows here and we get a lot of wind generation. But we don't need it, those months are our lowest months of usage.
But in July, when high pressure weather systems move over the state and bring 100+ temps, there's no wind with that high pressure. And that's when our usage is the highest.
Wind is a waste of time and money, just build one nuclear generator and they can haul off all those wind turbines to the junk pile.
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