Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011

[venture]

This thread will be used to discussion upcoming/ongoing severe weather events through the month of June. This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

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Other Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks

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*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*

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________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 ______________ Days 3 to 8 _____


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CoD NEXRAD Radar Mosaic


CoD Visible Satellite Image (will appear blank overnight)


Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions


SPC Severe Weather Reports (Today and Yesterday)
________ Today _____________ Yesterday _____


Useful Links
COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
NWS Norman Enhanced Page: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Oklahoma Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.org/
West Texas Mesonet: http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/
Oklahoma Fire Weather: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather
Oklahoma Road Conditions: http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php -or- http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/

[venture]

Very quick outlook to get this going.

June 1st - Some disagreement with models on how widespread activity will be. GFS wants to have widely scattered storms most of the day across most of OK. The other models keep things dry, so we’ll have to wait and see.
June 2nd – Mostly dry.
June 3rd – Dry.
June 4th – Dry across most of the state, maybe a shower/storm late in the far SE.
June 5th – Dry except maybe some showers/storms in far Eastern OK.
June 6th – Dry except in Eastern OK where an isolated storm could pop.
June 7th – Isolated storms Central and Eastern OK.
June 8th – Dry.
June 9th – Dry.
June 10th – Dry.
June 11th – Dry except for northern OK with a chance of a storm.
June 12th – Chance of a storm across the state.
June 13th – Dry.
June 14th – Chance of storms across the state.
June 15th – Dry.

[FritterGirl]

Ah. Back to the drought.

[kevinpate]

Sure hope 10th and 11th repeat for the following weekend as well. Would be nice.

[Roadhawg]

Sure hope 10th and 11th repeat for the following weekend as well. Would be nice.

I agree... riding the bike down to Austin that weekend.

[Thunder]

Venture, there is something wrong with your outlook. There are too many dry days. :-(

[venture]

Ah. Back to the drought.

Appears so. GFS tonight has us dry through the 16th...but hopefully it changes. We might get some rain tonight/tomorrow if any of these storms out west could make it this way.

[crimsoncrazy]

Oklahoma farmers need a couple weeks of dry weather to try and salvage what little wheat they have left.

[venture]

Quick update...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2011

... MAY 24, 2011 OKLAHOMA TORNADO OUTBREAK ...

...UPDATED INTENSITY RATINGS FOR STORMS 3...4...5 AND 7...

NOTE: NWS CONTINUES TO ANALYZE SURVEY RESULTS. THE BINGER-EL
RENO-PIEMONT-GUTHRIE TORNADO IS STILL BEING INVESTIGATED AND COULD
BE RATED HIGHER.

...EVENT OVERVIEW...

STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES MOVED ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
MAY 24TH. STORMS INITIALLY FORMED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
QUICKLY BECAME SEVERE AS THEY MOVED NORTHEAST. SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS PRODUCED TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MOVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM.

STORM 1... CANTON LAKE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-3
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 2/0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 6 NW CANTON 315 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 NNW LONGDALE 343 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 9 MILES
WIDTH: 1/2 MILE
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: AT LEAST EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 3... CHICKASHA-BLANCHARD-NEWCASTLE-MOORE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/1
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 SOUTH OF CHICKASHA 5:09 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S WILL ROGERS AP 6:00 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 30 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 4... WASHINGTON-GOLDSBY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-4
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 190
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 4 SW BRADLEY 5:26 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW GOLDSBY 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 27 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 5... PAYNE COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 130
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 9 SW STILLWATER 5:50 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 3 SE STILLWATER 6:05 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 10 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

STORM 6... STELLA

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: UNKNOWN
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 1/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 E STELLA 628 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S MCLOUD 634 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 4 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.


STORM 7... JOHNSTON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF1
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): 95
INJURIES/FATALITIES: NONE/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 1 NW RAVIA 730 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 2 N TISHOMINGO 745 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 6 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

[SoonerDave]

Hey Thunder,

Don't even know if you're lurking, but thought I'd let you know that it appears Massachusetts (of all places) is in the middle of a tornado watch with some counties under warnings. There's apparently quite a block of weather in the NE today...

[venture]

Storm 2's rating has been upgraded to an EF-5.

STORM 2... BINGER-EL RENO-PIEDMONT-GUTHRIE

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-5
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): GREATER THAN 210 MPH
INJURIES/FATALITIES: UNKNOWN/9
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 8 WNW BINGER 3:30 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 4 NE GUTHRIE 5:35 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 75 MILES
DAMAGE WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE: RATING BASED ON UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA MOBILE DOPPLER RADAR
MEASUREMENTS.

[Achilleslastand]

Even tho we got average to above average amounts of rainfall here in central okla in may it wont take too much to drop us back into the fire danger/severe drought category. We need any and all the moisture we can get or its going to be a long july/august.

[venture]

The Cleveland / Pott county tornado (or Stella tornado) has also been given a rating finally...of EF1.

STORM 6... STELLA

PRELIMINARY DATA...
EVENT DATE: MAY 24, 2011
EVENT TYPE: TORNADO
EF RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): UNKNOWN
INJURIES/FATALITIES: 1/NONE
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME: 2 E STELLA 628 PM CDT
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME: 5 S MCLOUD 634 PM CDT
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 4 MILES
WIDTH: UNKNOWN
NOTE:

DETAILED DESCRIPTION TO BE PROVIDED.

[Thunder]

Hey Thunder,

Don't even know if you're lurking, but thought I'd let you know that it appears Massachusetts (of all places) is in the middle of a tornado watch with some counties under warnings. There's apparently quite a block of weather in the NE today...

Maybe our peak season will be June or July. :-O

[venture]

Maybe our peak season will be June or July. :-O

Our peak this year will most likely be April.

So far the annual totals are:
Jan - 0 (Avg: 0.3)
Feb - 1 (Avg: 0.8)
Mar - 0 (Avg: 4.1)
Apr - 48 (Avg: 10.4)
May - 9 (Avg: 21.3) ... this number will likely get revised a bit once all the surveys are done.

Going forward, June's average drops dramatically to 8, July - 1.8, Aug - 1.4, Sept - 2, Oct - 2.1, Nov - 1.4, and Dec - 0.4 Annual average is 53.9 and so far year to date we have 58. If we look at past historical records...June can provide decent sized numbers, but not often. Max has been 28 since 1950...that happened in 1995. Probably one of the most memorable for me was in 1998 (June 13th)...we had 22 that month and also saw my first Okie tornado (the El Reno one, then got a bit too close to the Lake Hefner one - oops). Since then we've stuck very close to the average if not below most years. July is absolutely dead...since 1999 we've only had 2 July tornadoes (2007 and 2010). August is the same...since 2000 only 6 (5 in 2007 and 1 in 2009). Obviously September and October represent our Fall tornado season, but those have really been hit or miss. September's highest year was 1992 with 16 tornadoes, while October was (as many will remember, myself included) 1998 with 27 tornadoes. The Oct '98 outbreak was one of those nights where they just would not stop well after dark. Remember Gary on TV that night saying something similar to that on air. November and December are pretty hit or miss. Since 2000 we've at 7 and 2 tornadoes during those months respectfully.

So no month is tornado free in Oklahoma, but we are past the peak if we go by 60 years of hard numbers. However, the Summer months can give us a crazy mixed bag of severe weather.

For those that have forgotten...from: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events

• June 14, 2010 Flash Flood and River Flood Event in Oklahoma
• August 18-19, 2007 Remnants of Tropical Storm Erin
• June 13, 1998 Oklahoma City Tornadoes
• June 16-17, 2005 Derecho Event
• May 27-28, 2001 "The People Chaser Derecho" - yes this is May, but still close to what can happen in Summer when we have a Northwest Flow setup.

[Boo1083]

Ummm, I hate to break it to ya, but I think peak season for Oklahoma is over. I guess you could always go North to see some " action" :-/

[MikeOKC]

Thanks for that great post, Venture. Something that really puts things that have happened in Joplin and Tuscaloosa in perspective for me are the 1998 tornadoes here in OKC. That was the one that messed up Lakeside Shopping Center on N. May. To me, that was pretty bad (see pic below). According to the NWS information you linked to that was an F2 tornado. Wow. Can you imagine an F5 through all that density? That shopping center would have been leveled along with a good part of Nichols Hills.

[venture]

Alright, wanted to take another look down the road to see when we might see moisture from the sky again before the "Odd/Even" days before. So what can we expect over the next 7 days? Well I think Norman's afternoon forecast discussion sums it up pretty well. They are normally pretty lengthy...it was 4 sentences. Pretty much just highlighting we are currently in a mid-late Summer pattern right now, at least until a western trough can start to push this "death ridge" away. For those that haven't heard that term before, just refers to a very strong high pressure parked on top of us that makes scary faces at any cloud that wants to attempt to drop a single rain drop. So when will it change?

Fast forward to mid-late next week. First real chance of rain appears to be Thursday the 9th. Oh so disclaimer for those that are new to this little thing we've been doing here for a few years now. This is based off the GFS model and it is about as reliable (well not always) as a drunk monkey playing darts that is blind and just spun around while resting its head on a baseball tee. In other words, don't come yelling at me when it isn't raining on Thursday. Okay? Good. :-)

Thursday (Jun 9) the western trough is moving east and the ridge visits the Southeast US. So what does the setup look like? Warm to hot at the surface and very humid with Dewpoints well into the 70s. Decent wind out of the southeast. Eastern edge of the upper trough moves over the start with strong westerly winds overhead, however the bulk of the energy will go just a bit north. It will be flat out extremely unstable with LIs well under -10 and CAPE over 3000 j/kg. CIN will be highest along and SE of I-44, so storm formation there will be low. However, precip is being projected from roughly Weatherford up through Osage County to the northeast. Will there be a severe risk? Obviously. To what extent? Let's get into the next week first.

Friday (Jun 10) - Early storms will continue across Central OK and then attention shifts back to the NW. Plenty of instability around still. Storms look to fire up in Western Kansas and will probably track easterly or southeasterly. We possibly could see one of those classic summer storm complexes drop down from KS, but the setup doesn't look ideal right now.

Saturday (Jun 11) - Looks mostly dry. Ridge O' Death starts moving back to the west some and storm track pushes north again.

Sunday (Jun 12) - Upper high is bouncing around a bit and move east slightly, but almost appears we are going into a pretty zonal flow. Dryline appears to setup in Western OK and maybe a chance of storms late in eastern OK.

Monday (Jun 13) - Highlight Sunday. CTRL+C. CTRL+V. Hit enter to start new line for Tuesday.

Tuesday (Jun 14) - Looks like we'll have some energy push out across the southern plains and a setup for Northwest Flow. Late in the afternoon looks like a storm complex could form in Eastern CO and SW KS. Instability is there across OK, so we'll see.

Wednesday (Jun 15) - GFS is putting a bullseye of heavy precip in SW KS early and moves storms into OK and SE KS by evening. We'll see if this even lasts another run. Instability will be very high to extreme and upper winds will be pretty decent. May need to watch this one...for probable disappointment.

Thursday (Jun 16) - Another day of strong instability, but not as much upper air support. So probably pretty dry outside far East OK.

Friday (Jun 17) - Looks like chance of storms statewide most of the day. Doubt it happens, being the last day of this forecast run and it is always the most volatile.

One other side note. GFS is showing a pretty strong system coming on shore into the Pac NW towards the end of the forecast run (Jun 16/17)...but keeps it pretty far north. So we'll want to keep an eye on this and see if this will dive south into CA and move east from there.

We'll see what happens. Once these death ridges get setup, they are a pain to move...so you can probably tell I'm a little pessimistic about any precip happening. But hey...stranger things have happened.

[venture]

Yike...double post. I thought it was taking too long to post.

[venture]

Thanks for that great post, Venture. Something that really puts things that have happened in Joplin and Tuscaloosa in perspective for me are the 1998 tornadoes here in OKC. That was the one that messed up Lakeside Shopping Center on N. May. To me, that was pretty bad (see pic below). According to the NWS information you linked to that was an F2 tornado. Wow. Can you imagine an F5 through all that density? That shopping center would have been leveled along with a good part of Nichols Hills.

Yeah. It really only takes one tornado to make headlines. The Joplin EF5 occurred in an area that started as a slight risk, went to moderate in the afternoon, but only was put up to a 10% hatched tornado risk area. There were a few tornadoes in NE OK/SE MO/NW AR that day, but not a huge density. Did Joplin break records? Not really. It did move into the Top 10 of all time deadliest tornadoes in the US...but that record will be held (probably forever) by the Tri-State tornado of 1925 that killed 695 people. That tornado has the longest continuous track of any tornado in recorded history...over 220 miles. The costliest tornado in history? Unfortunately we own that one. The Bridge Creek-Moore F5 caused over $1.3 billion (adjusted for inflation) in damage.

The main point I'm trying to make...pure quantity of tornadoes doesn't equal a bad day. Sure we could have a day of 300 EF-0s dancing across the state, but most of us would be annoyed at them knocking over the patio furniture, messing up Grandma's hair, or messing up a roof or two. May 24th should really drive the point home. The Central 1/3rd of Oklahoma had 7 tornadoes (Eastern had a few more). That's it. Not the massive outbreak like the Southeast had or anywhere close to May 3rd. Seven. However, one of those was an EF5, two of them EF4s. That is a significant day. This has been a significant year. Since 1953 there have been 51 F5 and now 7 EF-5 tornadoes...or exactly 1 of these rare tornadoes per year. Of course this year has just been insane...5 of them have occurred this year. That has never happened since 1974 (six F5s during the Super Outbreak).

So I guess it depends on what people to call a peak. We've hit our annual average. We had nearly 50 tornadoes in April. We've had a very rare EF-5 tornado. I say this year has been pretty busy. We are just lucky the Binger-El Reno-Piedmont-Guthrie tornado stayed in the far West/Northwest Metro area, the Chickasha-Blanchard-Newcastle-Moore EF-4 lifted when it did, and then Washington-Goldsby EF-4 didn't feel like going into Norman. If those last two tornadoes stayed on the ground, we would have been dealing with probably 2 more EF-5s and one cutting through the heart of Moore, South OKC and point NE from there...and another right through Central and Eastern Norman. Hopefully people realize how damn lucky we got this year.

[Boo1083]

Agreed, you say lucky, I say God's protection was over us. Don't yell at me for my religious views, not pushing it on anyone

[venture]

Agreed, you say lucky, I say God's protection was over us. Don't yell at me for my religious views, not pushing it on anyone

No reason to yell at anyone's beliefs. Some believe in a higher deity, some believe in nature, some in themselves, etc. Whatever people believe in that allows to them to be a decent a person, that is their own personal business. That's about all I'll say on that though to avoid derailing the thread and causing a bunch of posts to get deleted. LOL

[BG918]

So I guess it depends on what people to call a peak. We've hit our annual average. We had nearly 50 tornadoes in April. We've had a very rare EF-5 tornado. I say this year has been pretty busy. We are just lucky the Binger-El Reno-Piedmont-Guthrie tornado stayed in the far West/Northwest Metro area, the Chickasha-Blanchard-Newcastle-Moore EF-4 lifted when it did, and then Washington-Goldsby EF-4 didn't feel like going into Norman. If those last two tornadoes stayed on the ground, we would have been dealing with probably 2 more EF-5s and one cutting through the heart of Moore, South OKC and point NE from there...and another right through Central and Eastern Norman. Hopefully people realize how damn lucky we got this year.

I was thinking the same thing. The OKC metro dodged a major bullet last week.

Though I don't know if we'll see everything come together like that for a long time. The atmospheric dynamics that day were incredible. I still am amazed that even with the storms clustering they were still able to put down long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes.

[Thunder]

I believe in Venture. Its my religion.

[venture]

If you guys have a few spare minutes today, feel free to take this survey from NSSL on the wording for tornado warnings: http://www.facebook.com/l.php?u=http...Astudy&h=4cc62

Appears that they could be looking at improving the language used down the road.