Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2011

[Thunder]

We're gonna have tornadoes.

[tornado74]

Venture - are you still expecting tornadoes along the dryline tomorrow afternoon? The SPC seems to think so. However, there's a lot of chatter from other people about the low-level shear being pretty modest. How does it look to you?

[BG918]

It will be interesting to see today's soundings. That should tell us if the atmosphere is as favorable for severe weather as it looks tomorrow.

[BrettL]

Our thoughts on tomorrows severe weather

Hook-Echo.com Weather Blog - May 11 Severe Weather Discussion

[venture]

Not much change with the new Day 2. Debating my own blog post/forecast before I publish it because things aren't very clear just yet. It does appear GFS is getting its act together and isn't hosing instability as much as NAM. However, there is some early convection that could be around tomorrow morning that would complicate things all the more. More thoughts in a bit.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS KS/OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS FROM NEB TO S TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY WRN CONUS
TROUGHING...AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING FROM CENTRAL GULF TO UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER PAC NW AHEAD OF CYCLONE NOW OVER
GULF OF AK...DOWNSTREAM TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN GENERALLY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH PERIOD. LEADING WRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL/CLOSED 500-MB CYCLONE OVER SERN MT -- IS FCST
TO EJECT SLOWLY NEWD TO SRN MB THROUGH REMAINDER DAY-1 PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER LOWER CO RIVER REGION -- IS FCST TO SWIVEL NEWD ACROSS
AZ DAY-1. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO CLOSED 500-MB
CYCLONE OVER SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY 11/12Z...THEN MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY END OF PERIOD. WEAK TROUGH OF
PAC/SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX EARLY IN
PERIOD...PRIOR TO 21Z.

AT SFC...CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL/NRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ELONGATED ACROSS NRN SD ATTM...BUT SHOULD CONSOLIDATE THROUGH
REMAINDER DAY-1 AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN MB. BY 11/12Z...EXPECT
TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT SEWD TO TRIPLE-POINT LOW OVER MSP/LSE
REGION. DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE -- ADJUSTED ON MESOSCALE BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS -- WILL EXTEND GENERALLY FROM TRIPLE-POINT AREA
ESEWD ACROSS OH...BENDING SWWD THEN SEWD OVER WRN/SRN APPALACHIANS
THEN SEWD ACROSS GA. WAVE LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG WARM FRONT OVER OR
JUST OFFSHORE GA COAST EARLY IN PERIOD IF MCV DEVELOPS FROM DAY-1
CONVECTION FARTHER NW.

QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN TRIPLE POINT SWWD ACROSS
NRN/WRN IA...SERN/S-CENTRAL NEB...TO STRENGTHENING CYCLONE OVER SWRN
KS. THIS CYCLONE SHOULD DEEPEN FURTHER AND DRIFT NEWD THROUGH
DAY...REACHING W-CENTRAL KS BY 12/00Z...WITH DRYLINE ARCHING SEWD
OVER WRN/S-CENTRAL KS...SWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL OK AND WRN PORTIONS
N-CENTRAL TX TO WRN HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU REGIONS OF TX.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
MOST SIGNIFICANT/CONCENTRATED SVR POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST
AHEAD OF DRYLINE FROM NEAR SFC LOW SEWD AND SWD OVER OK AND PORTIONS
CENTRAL TX...THOUGH SOME CAVEATS COMPLICATE POTENTIAL IN EACH OF
THREE MAIN AREAS OUTLINED BELOW. IN GENERAL...BROAD MOIST
SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 60S AND LOW-70S SFC DEW POINTS
AND INTENSIFYING BULK SHEAR...WILL FAVOR RATHER BROAD SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 3 PHASES...EACH WITH SOME SPATIAL
OVERLAP...

1. EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEADING/SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION
OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN TX...AHEAD OF DRYLINE IN ZONE OF WEAKENED
CINH. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CAUSED
BY EJECTING SWRN CONUS WAVE. HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. POSSIBLE EVOLUTION TO
MESSY CONVECTIVE MODES AND LACK OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING MAY BE
LIMITING FACTORS...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION AND
SPREAD OF RELATED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.

2. NEXT EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY MIDDAY INTO MID-AFTERNOON
NEAR SFC LOW AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FRONT AND DRYLINE ARC OVER
KS...WHERE DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST SOONEST WITHIN
GREAT-PLAINS CORRIDOR. RATHER LENGTHY HODOGRAPHS PROGGED IN NARROW
WARM SECTOR MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS AS WELL. SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. CAPPING WILL BE
STRONGER FARTHER NE ALONG FRONT AND SE/S ALONG DRYLINE...BUT SVR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BRANCH OUT ALONG THOSE CORRIDORS DURING AFTERNOON.

3. AHEAD OF DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS SRN KS...OK AND N TX. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND MEAN-WIND VECTORS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVELY MORE ORTHOGONAL
TO DRYLINE WITH SWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE MODES TO LAST LONGER.
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER FROM WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION MAY
RESULT IN NARROW OR RESTRICTED AREA OF AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
SOME MASS ADJUSTMENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO MAY
OCCUR...RELATED TO EARLIER PERTURBATION AND PRESENCE OF CONVECTION
FARTHER S...THAT COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BACKING WITH HEIGHT
ALOFT...AND POTENTIALLY COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODES.

[jn1780]

Sounds like it will be this time tomorrow before we get a good idea on what will happen.

[Thunder]

Yeah, Venture, I was checking KOCO's site for news and saw a link to their "Radar Predictor" and it was showing clouds rolling through overnight into morning hours before clearing up during the day then another wave for the afternoon. Clouds better not ruin the day, cuz I want it all to be crystal clear all day until those supercells arrive.

[BG918]

Yeah, Venture, I was checking KOCO's site for news and saw a link to their "Radar Predictor" and it was showing clouds rolling through overnight into morning hours before clearing up during the day then another wave for the afternoon. Clouds better not ruin the day, cuz I want it all to be crystal clear all day until those supercells arrive.

Wasn't there a lot of cloud cover during the May 10 outbreak last year? Seems like I remember it clearing just a couple hours before the storms fired.

[venture]

Tomorrow is really looking like a headache right now. Tried to sum it up best here: http://www.storm-scope.com/blog/?p=37

Short term we have storms increasing in South Central and Western OK that have the potential to drop some decent hail.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX INTO OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101812Z - 102015Z

ELEVATED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL MOVE NWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ENSUE...ANY
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.

THE COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LATITUDE WAVE EMERGING FROM NRN MEXICO INTO TX HAS PROMPTED THE
RECENT INITIATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL
TX AT THE APEX OF A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. SINCE STATIC
STABILITY WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED BY
AMPLE MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE
PLUME...THE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ROOTED BETWEEN 900 AND 850 MB PER
RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS.
REGARDLESS...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 12Z FORT WORTH AND NORMAN SOUNDINGS INDICATING
700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.9 C PER KM AND 9.2 C PER
KM...RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH...SMALL HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SHIFTS NWD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO CNTRL TX CLOSER TO
A 500-MB VORT MAX. GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...A
SMALL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL COULD DEVELOP WITH THE MORE
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AOB 30 KT...THE OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION/DURATION MAY BE
LIMITED...REDUCING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THUS...THE ISSUANCE OF
A WW IS UNLIKELY.

..COHEN.. 05/10/2011

[venture]

Wasn't there a lot of cloud cover during the May 10 outbreak last year? Seems like I remember it clearing just a couple hours before the storms fired.

It isn't atypical for us to have a low stratus deck on severe days. It happens when the gulf just opens up. The key is getting the sun to burn it off by late morning and early afternoon to get some heating to take place for instability to build.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
128 pm cdt tue may 10 2011

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Western pontotoc county in east central oklahoma...
Northwestern johnston county in southeast oklahoma...
Northern carter county in southern oklahoma...
Eastern garvin county in southern oklahoma...
Murray county in southern oklahoma...

* until 230 pm cdt

* at 128 pm cdt...national weather service radar indicated severe
thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles southeast of
davis to 4 miles southwest of milo...moving north at 40 mph.

Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...

* locations in the warning include ada...byng...davis...dougherty...
Elmore city...fitzhugh...graham...healdton...hennepin...h ickory...
Lake of the arbuckles...mill creek...milo...paoli...pauls valley...
Pooleville...roff...scullin...springer...stratford ...sulphur...
Turner falls...vanoss...whitebead and wynnewood.

[venture]

Just a side note, the chat room is rolling and can be access from either http://www.chatokc.com or http://www.storm-scope.com now. Have the "live" radar up and webcam operational. Should be ready for the busy day tomorrow now.

[Thunder]

David, where are you? I have been waiting for hours on the chat. I got a question.

The wave that came through the state, was that the one meant to come thru overnight into late morning? Or are we still expecting that wave to come? Just wondering if that wave came way early than predicted, cuz I noticed the clouds was clearing up. Would be kool if we actually have clear skies from here on out toward the big bang.

[venture]

David, where are you? I have been waiting for hours on the chat. I got a question.

The wave that came through the state, was that the one meant to come thru overnight into late morning? Or are we still expecting that wave to come? Just wondering if that wave came way early than predicted, cuz I noticed the clouds was clearing up. Would be kool if we actually have clear skies from here on out toward the big bang.

Sorry not able to be on chat this evening. Will be in there nearly all day/evening tomorrow.

We will probably still have some stratus around in the morning due to the moisture pouring in. However, current short term model runs aren't showing a mass of precip forming in Western OK like some have been predicting. Most of the activity tonight will be mainly to the east of I-35 and shouldn't be much of an issue.

Comments I posted on Storm-Scope.com earlier...

HRRR short term model has precip staying in Western OK. It is matching up pretty well to current activity. It does hint at some additional development back to the west some near the far eastern parts of the OKC Metro. Nothing major to worry about that. Main show still on tap for later today.

GFS and NAM models are pretty much in agreement with precip placement. They break out some early precip that will impact mostly Eastern OK, this activity might be severe but not the main show. Towards late afternoon, activity is expected to break out along the dryline in Western OK. These storms will likely end up being supercells and conditions are favorable for rotating storms. Large Hail and Tornadoes will be the main threat. Both models continue to dry precip out extremely fast after dark, but not sure how accurate that is at this point. NAM is also having issues with instability forecasts again, mainly due to the morning stratus deck we'll have and probably over forecasting of precip in Eastern OK. Both models do show a narrow band of high instability right ahead of the dryline into the evening hours, so we'll need to see how it plays out.

Overall, this is still something that isn't set in stone and will be very dynamic going through the day of Wednesday.

[venture]

SPC Continues Moderate Risk...


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL KS AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SC AND ERN GA...

...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TODAY WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND DECELERATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED FROM CNTRL AND NRN TX EXTENDING NWD ACROSS OK AND KS. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A HAIL THREAT AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS EAST AND NORTH TX THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND WCNTRL KS...THE AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN UNDISTURBED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS ACROSS WRN KS AND WRN OK. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THE CAP WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. AS SUPERCELLS RAPIDLY DEVELOP...A HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD UNFOLD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE FIRST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN KS ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD FROM SFC LOW IN WRN KS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GOODLAND KS EWD TO SALINA KS AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST...SHOULD PROVIDE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ORGANIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z TO 00Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 M SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BY 00Z AS A 60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. A THREAT FOR 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL SHOULD EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS A 35 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL OK AND SRN KS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST TO THE WEST OF THE JET CENTER IN WRN OK AND WCNTRL KS AS SUPERCELLS MATURE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS STORM COVERAGE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS WRN OK AND WRN KS RELATIVELY ISOLATED. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY...KEEPING MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WEST OF THE DRYLINE. AT THIS POINT...THE NAM SOLUTION AT 00Z APPEARS REASONABLE SUGGESTING THE STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN WIDELY GAPPED. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET RESPONSE...EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET AND WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN A HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT.
FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK ACROSS WCNTRL KS AND WRN OK.

...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CAROLINAS...
NNWLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WRN CAROLINAS AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ALONG WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE FROM SRN MN AND ERN IA EWD ACROSS WI AND NRN IL. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.

..BROYLES/STOPKOTTE.. 05/11/2011

[venture]

So some specifics. The Moderate risk is roughly between US 183 to the west and I-35 to the east and goes down to the Red River Valley. The chance for significant tornadoes would also exist in this area.

Now one thing to take away from the SPC discussion. There are still many questions with this setup. Things are not perfect and storm coverage may not be extremely high, but what storms do form should provide a higher end severe threat. If the environment was less conducive to higher end severe weather, they probably would have dropped the Moderate Risk. However, regardless of what some people are saying out on Twitter and such, based on coverage they likely won't go to a High risk for this event unless things drastically change tomorrow as things progress.

[venture]

One more quick side note for Thursday. Slight risk is up generally just to the east of I-35 for some large hail producers and maybe a tornado or two.

[SoonerDave]

Hey everyone....thought things might be picking up in here and over on the chatroom. Stay safe today, everyone.

[tornado74]

Looks like the crapvection has started west of the dryline. This doesn't have me too optimistic for today.

[Jesseda]

crapvection?

[Thunder]

They took away the Moderate risk. :-O

NWS still maintain an enhanced risk, but the SPC took away the moderate risk.

[Thunder]

Looks like the crapvection has started west of the dryline. This doesn't have me too optimistic for today.

crapvection?

He is talking about this...



I can't believe this...

[Thunder]

Looks like the crapvection has started west of the dryline. This doesn't have me too optimistic for today.

Do you know where the dryline actually are? It would make sense if this wave was east of the dryline, as expected for morning hours, but more further to the east (toward us). Surprised me that its actually way out west. I think Venture is still sleeping. I keep refreshing the NEXRAD and the whole thing seem to be diminishing to me, which is good. There is still 6 hours until around 3pm to burn off the clouds and really heat up. Eh, oh, Venture, hurry up wake up!

You can see NWS is still maintaining such risk, even tho the computerized SPC took it away.



*Graphic subject to change.

And a tweet from OUN.

ounwcm:
Computer models are not doing a great job with the storms in W OK. That's making the afternoon forecast tougher. Stay tuned!

[Thunder]

Now the NWS removed the Enhanced/Moderate Risk after I posted that. :-O

[klmadison]

Here is Texas Tech West Texas mesonet from Lubbock on dewpoint