Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - March 2011

[OKCisOK4me]

i guess you missed out on the hailstorm last year? go to youtube and search for "oklahoma hail in pool" and see what you think after that.

Not to mention that the 4-6 mile stretch of hail that moved through the city has been put on par with Hurricane Katrina for all the insurance money that's had to be paid out.

[venture]

Here is the watch information that will be out for the next few hours.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
945 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER CO/NM APPROACHES. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

[venture]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS/MO...

BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY...WHILE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO/NM MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX/OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

...OK/KS/MO...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS
TIME OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND EASTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY
INTENSIFIED THIS MORNING AS ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREAD THE REGION. MORNING RAOBS SHOWS STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE...AND SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MO
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST
IS IN QUESTION AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS HAVE ADJUSTED SLIGHT RISK A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.

ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN OK AND IS IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SO FAR...THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN IN A DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN OK.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

...OK/TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST OK AND WEST TX. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INITIATION
APPEARS TO BE IN OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STORMS DECREASING
FARTHER SOUTH. IF A STORM CAN FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WOULD BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. EVEN A TORNADO COULD OCCUR MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST OK WHERE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR.

..HART/COHEN.. 03/19/2011

[venture]

Storms seem to be on a pretty good increase right now. Strongest storm is in Blaine County near Okeene. Hail up to 1" possible with that storm. A newer line of storms is developing just north of the I-44 between OKC and TUL. More scattered stuff in the NW part of the state and watching for new development in the next couple hours in SW OK. The SW OK activity is where the best probability of any tornado risk will be today.

Bringing the chat online at ChatOKC.com in case thing start to get a bit crazy.

[venture]

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vte...KOUN-SV-W-0005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
GARFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN KAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF ENID...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...DEER CREEK...
ENID...HUNTER...KREMLIN...LAMONT...NARDIN...NORTH ENID...TONKAWA...
VANCE AIR FORCE BASE AND WAUKOMIS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 213 AND 223.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN KS...WRN MO...EXTREME NWRN
AR...MOST OF OK EXCEPT SERN PORTIONS AND PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...

VALID 192005Z - 192130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51
CONTINUES.

SVR THREAT SHOULD PERSIST IN AND NEAR EXISTING WW AREA OVER PORTIONS
OK...KS AND SWRN MO BEYOND SCHEDULED 21Z EXPIRATION TIME...THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE THEN.

SERIES OF SFC MESOANALYSES INDICATE WARM FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE
NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL/ERN OK...EXCEPT FOR ONE SEGMENT DESCRIBED
BELOW...AMIDST BLEND OF MIXING/ADVECTIVE PROCESSES. AS OF
1930Z...CONVENTIONAL AND MESONET DATA INDICATE WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
OR INFLECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN
OUN-TUL...COMPELLING SMALL SEWD MOVEMENT OF FRONT OVER CENTRAL OK
AND MAXIMIZING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SUPPORT OF LINEAR TSTM BAND
THAT EXTENDS INTO LAYER OF ELEVATED INFLOW ACROSS SERN KS. WITH
MLCINH NEARLY GONE IN CENTRAL/SRN OK WARM SECTOR...WEAK FRONTAL LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DISCRETELY BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT
ALONG BOUNDARY S OF EXISTING WW. FARTHER N...FAVORABLE ELEVATED
MUCAPE OF 800-1300 J/KG IS ESTIMATED OVER SRN KS AND NRN OK BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT IN
SUPPORT OF ADDITIONAL HAIL POTENTIAL FROM CONVECTION IN THAT REGION.

MEANWHILE...ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS WRN OK NW OF
FRONT...EARLIER DENSE LOW-MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER IS BREAKING UP WITH
POCKETS OF SFC HEATING LEADING TO DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THOUGH MLCINH REMAINS PROHIBITIVE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
ATTM...ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS
WHICH THEN WOULD MOVE NEWD TO ENEWD TOWARD WRN OK. LIMITING FACTORS
WILL INCLUDE LARGER INITIAL STATIC STABILITY NEAR SFC...LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT ALOFT BEHIND EJECTING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND DIFFUSE NATURE OF
SFC BOUNDARIES NW OF FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2011

[venture]

Things are still pretty calm out there. Two areas being watched. Around Lubbock new severe storm popped up, but shouldn't approach OK. Next area is in Western OK where the cells have ticked up a bit.

[venture]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...LIFTING THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES BY 12Z TUESDAY...WILL GRADUALLY BE
FORCED EASTWARD INTO A CONFLUENT REGIME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN
EVOLVING BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AS
ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE PROCESS IN WHICH THIS OCCURS STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S...AS A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED IMPULSE EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND NORTHEAST OF THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS ARE PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR OF A SUB 1000 MB
SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FORCING WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF A STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK /AROUND 90
KT AT 500 MB/...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM A
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY COMPONENT AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

AT LOWER LEVELS...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JETS MAY BE
CONCENTRATED IN TWO BROAD CORRIDORS...ONE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...JUST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE...ANOTHER ON THE PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
SURFACE RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO IMPEDE SUBSTANTIVE INLAND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY NOT REACH THE LEVELS THAT IT
OTHERWISE COULD...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING.
HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SEVERE STORMS.

...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG AND
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT...EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW...NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY STORMS OF CONCERN
DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO EVOLVE UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...NEAR THE LOW AND WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI. INITIALLY ACTIVITY MAY BE
IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...BUT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD TRACK
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL LIKELY WILL BE THE MOST PROMINENT CONCERNS...AND IT DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...ALONG THE DRY LINE...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...AND STRONG
SHEAR...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 03/20/2011

[venture]

Two different tales tomorrow for weather across the state. Western 1/3rd of OK will be experiencing extreme fire danger. Central and Eastern OK are under a slight risk for severe storms ahead of the dryline. However, there will be a cap in place for storm formation is not guaranteed. Fire danger will also sky rocket once the dryline passes your location. Either way, the chat room will be up and going at chatOKC.com to follow the various twitter/news feeds and occasional live discussion.

[bucktalk]

Two different tales tomorrow for weather across the state. Western 1/3rd of OK will be experiencing extreme fire danger. Central and Eastern OK are under a slight risk for severe storms ahead of the dryline. However, there will be a cap in place for storm formation is not guaranteed. Fire danger will also sky rocket once the dryline passes your location. Either way, the chat room will be up and going at chatOKC.com to follow the various twitter/news feeds and occasional live discussion.

I have never really heard an explanation of what the 'cap' actually is. Is it basically a pocket of very warm air that doesn't move over a particular area?

[OKCisOK4me]

I have never really heard an explanation of what the 'cap' actually is. Is it basically a pocket of very warm air that doesn't move over a particular area?

From what I understand, it's a stability thing. The air is stable to a certain elevation. If one cumulus cloud goes up and its strong enough to break through the cap, it can hit the unstable air and turn into a thunderstorm.

[venture]

Best way to explain the cap is that as you go up, the air temperature normally decreases. A cap though is a layer of warm air that goes against this trend and essentially puts a lid on convection (or rising air). This can have two different impacts when it comes to severe weather. A strong cap can suppress cloud development and associated storm development all together. While the cap is in place instability can continue to increase, but if the cap is strong enough...the instability just boils away. If the cap is fairly moderate, it can hold down development until something is able to weaken it or it is overcome by the instability that has built up. Convective Temperature, the point where the air temp should be warm enough to overcome the cap on its own...is one factor. Any boundaries in the area can also increase lift and force the cap to break. Sometimes it is rough for a boundary to do this unless it is a fairly strong front. However, if the cap can be overcome convection can develop very quickly and if instability is extremely high, the development can be explosive and generate those storms that go from nothing to severe in minutes.

When looking for a cap, you want to look around 850 to 700 mb levels on the SKEW-T diagrams. Good resource to look at: http://convectiveaddiction.com/2010/03/05/1059/

They have this sample SKEW-T showing a cap:

[venture]

Modification to the forecast for tomorrow based on the evening model runs. Again we continue with two headlines...Fire and Storms. GFS and NAM are in agreement for the most part on the speed of the dryline tomorrow. By 1PM it should be setup from roughly Medford to Enid to Geary to Fort Sill to Grandfield. By 7PM this will be pretty far to east from Bartlesville to Tulsa to east of Shawnee to Pauls Valley and Lone Grove. Behind the dryline, relative humidity values will plummet fast and we'll see values below 30% from Central Oklahoma back to the west. Ahead of the dryline, moisture will be decent and instability could yield a severe storm or two. Most likely area looks like the NE quad of OK.

So major storm that we'll likely see tomorrow is the extreme fire danger here with winds well over 30mph at times, temps near 80, an very dry air for most of the afternoon/evening. Graphical detail of my thinking is here: http://goo.gl/maps/7y5e

NWS Norman has decided tonight to place all of Central Oklahoma in a Fire Weather Watch, while all of Western Oklahoma is upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. They are expecting to upgrade many of the areas under a watch now to a warning by tomorrow morning. Here is the text of the new watch:

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2011

TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN-HALF
OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A DRYLINE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-024>030-039>041-045-046-050-TXZ090-221115-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.A.0010.110322T2100Z-110323T0200Z/
GRANT-KAY-GARFIELD-NOBLE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-CLAY-
1001 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...10 TO 20 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURE...80 TO 85 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

Forecast Discussion to give more insight:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
958 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FARTHER EAST WITH NEW WRF/NAM DATA AND ADJACENT OFFICE ISSUANCES. PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING ON OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING PACKAGE. DID RAISE TONIGHTS LOWS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND SUSTAINED WIND. MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.

THERE IS A TREND IN THE WRF AND ECM INDICATING THAT THE DRYLINE MAY SURGE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGD. WITH 00Z DATA JUST NOW TRICKLING IN...WE WILL LET MID SHIFT LOOK AT SUITE OF MODELS AND ASSESS POSSIBILITY FOR EXPANDING TOMORROWS RED FLAG TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR STORMS TOMORROW...WITH LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AREAS NORTH/EAST OF OKC HAVING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING ORGANIZED STORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

[venture]

Pretty much all of Western & Central OK are now under a Red Flag Warning. http://goo.gl/maps/RJC3

Some isolated showers/storms around right now, but shouldn't really do much to help the fire concern today. Dryline is just now moving out of the panhandle into NW OK.

[Thunder]

How fast is our dryline friend moving?

[FritterGirl]

Wow, do I hope we get rain soon. We need it. Desperately.

[venture]

How fast is our dryline friend moving?

Looks like on average it is moving around 30-40 mph to the east, at least if you go by the dewpoint charts. That may be a little fast, but it might also eventually start slowing down some as it gets further east. It is roughly 90 miles away now from the center of Oklahoma County...so it could be through here with in 3-4 hours.

[Thunder]

Still no storm development? :-/

[venture]

Dryline is entering the western sections of the Metro now. Live chat is going and two potential fires already indicated near Harmon and Quinlin in western OK. Chat room is at: http://www.chatokc.com and tracking map is at: http://goo.gl/maps/1j9H

[venture]

Fire near Harmon, OK in NW OK is now confirmed.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN OK...SE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222020Z - 222145Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM SCNTRL OK NNEWD INTO SE
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...LARGE HAIL AND FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE WHICH IS ADVANCING QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SBCAPE VALUES
ARE ESTIMATED FROM 1200 TO 1800 J/KG BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY RESULT IN STORM INITIATION.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT SIDE OF AN 70 TO 85 KT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF AN UPDRAFT CAN MATURE IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
FORCING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED.

..BROYLES.. 03/22/2011

[Thunder]

Did the dryline slow/stall considerably for such a large portion of central part to be under such a frightening posted threat?

[venture]

Did the dryline slow/stall considerably for such a large portion of central part to be under such a frightening posted threat?

It is still chugging along. Just past El Reno not long ago. Decent CU development from Grady county to the south along the dryline now. Little bit of a bulge in the dryline here in central OK so we may need to watch it. However, it should clear the Metro in the next 1-2 hours.

[venture]

First possible storm development is going on now in Payne County about 5 mi SW of Stillwater.

Update: Stillwater cell has faded. Two new cells one near Wellston in Lincoln County and the other near Pernell and Velma on the Stephens/Garvin county line.

[Thunder]

I actually was thinking today that from here on out, we're done with snow. Now I just saw this post...

http://kocoweatherblog.wordpress.com...w-think-again/

Yes, this is Oklahoma we're dealing with.