Winter Weather Discussion - Jan/Feb 2011

[venture]

New Freezing Rain Advisory up for the freezing drizzle that is out there.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011

OKZ023>032-037>042-044>046-TXZ085-086-088>090-101800-
/O.NEW.KOUN.ZR.Y.0001.110110T1412Z-110110T1800Z/
CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-
MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-WILBARGER-WICHITA-BAYLOR-
ARCHER-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...
OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...NORMAN...M OORE...
SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...FREDERICK...LAW TON...DUNCAN...
PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...WALTERS...WAURIKA...ARDMO RE...
VERNON...WICHITA FALLS...SEYMOUR...ARCHER CITY...HOLLIDAY...
LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
812 AM CST MON JAN 10 2011

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY.

* TIMING: THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS: BRIDGES AND ROADS MAY RECEIVE A VERY LIGHT GLAZE FROM
THE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. SIDEWALKS WILL ALSO BE SLIPPERY IN AREAS
WHERE THERE IS LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE CAREFUL IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL. EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE CAN MAKE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS SLICK AND DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

[Thunder]

What do you think about Sunday?

[venture]

Haven't go around to it yet, will look later this morning.

Near term...band of very light precip moving into Central OK. Additional light snow/freezing drizzle is likely in this.

[Thunder]

Mom just came in and said its snowing, so I'm going to go out to check.

I just noticed NWS indicating some snow for Sunday. *prays*

Did you get a new roof, yet?

[venture]

Still nothing major showing up long term. Weekend activity looks like it may stay pretty well east, but we'll see. Maybe something around Tuesday of next week. Then if you want to really go crazy, couple weeks out looks like a system comes out that might bring storms to the area.

[Easy180]

10 day looks non eventful...Almost thru January pretty much unscathed..Complete 180 from last year

[venture]

10 day looks non eventful...Almost thru January pretty much unscathed..Complete 180 from last year

Long range keeps us mostly dry for the rest of the month now. Of course this is always subject to change. Hopefully it does otherwise we'll probably be talking mostly Fire Weather going into February. All in all, yes a complete change from last year...but weather always balances out over time.

One thing CNN had on their website this morning that was kinda cool...



Not shown on there are Alaska and Hawaii, but they also had snow on the ground. Every state but Florida had snow on the ground at the same time this week. So if you hate snow, you know what state to move to. :-P

[venture]

More of an FYI to be alert when driving around tonight on bridges and such.

[Thunder]

Looks exciting...hopefully.



^^^ Graphic may change...

[venture]

Working on the forecast. This really hasn't look very exciting, but who knows. Maybe something will happen. :-P

[venture]

So I wanted to see what a few model runs would do before I said much more. NAM was way north of GFS yesterday, and now they look much closer. That also means GFS has pulled north a bit. Going by the runs this morning, a couple inches seem probably across far northern and northeast OK. Around here...maybe up to a half inch to an inch. Which will probably translate to what we had last time...a dusting that is gone in 30 minutes.

[OKCisOK4me]

So I wanted to see what a few model runs would do before I said much more. NAM was way north of GFS yesterday, and now they look much closer. That also means GFS has pulled north a bit. Going by the runs this morning, a couple inches seem probably across far northern and northeast OK. Around here...maybe up to a half inch to an inch. Which will probably translate to what we had last time...a dusting that is gone in 30 minutes.

I'm all for that. We don't need Thunder's wishful Armageddon...

[ljbab728]

I'm all for that. We don't need Thunder's wishful Armageddon...

Maybe venture can arrange for everything to fall on Thunder's house and leave the rest of us alone. LOL

[Thunder]

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

[venture]

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

While I would love to have some snow, doesn't look like it is going to happen anytime soon. I too enjoy a good snow storm, but unfortunately this area just can't handle it to where they can get a good 6-10" storm cleared in a few hours.

Thoughts for Thursday based off of tonight's runs. NAM continues to stay a bit north and GFS coming a bit more south. So this is a blend between the two.

There will be a gradual change in precip as it begins around midnight on Thursday. There will be a mix to start in the north but it will eventually transition to all snow. OKC will start to see some precip towards the morning drive. At this point it is going to be very close when you look at the surface freezing line and the freezing line at 850 mb. So do not be shocked to see some variety of rain, freezing rain, snow, or sleet mix. Things should transition to all snow as we progress towards noon before ending towards early afternoon. Southern OK I have painted as mostly rain, but a winter mix is probable late before the precip ends.

Accumulations do not look exciting. Extremely light in most areas. It also depends on which model you go with. Any accumulations of liquid (equivalent) is below 0.1" from I-35 to the East on GFS, whereas it is 0.1 to 0.3" across the northern tier of counties in OK. So as it stands now, OKC metro is not going to see a lot. If we do go more freezing liquid (drizzle or rain)...we may see some travel issues. If we see a transition to snow faster, should be good...but don't expect more than an inch from the way it looks.

Thursday January 20th, 2011 Forecast Map

[ljbab728]

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

It's not too much to ask as long as people don't have to be out trying to navigate the streets without worrying about destroying their cars or being killed in an accident.

[SoonerDave]

It's not too much to ask as long as people don't have to be out trying to navigate the streets without worrying about destroying their cars or being killed in an accident.

Let's differentiate between snow and ice. Snow is eminently drivable. Ice is the problem.

Of course, there are those who insist you can drive 75 on either, and that tells you the folks who are the real problem on OK roads in winter...

[venture]

Just a couple tweaks to the forecast, but still not feeling all that confident about amounts or precip types. NAM continues to be warmer and further north with the heavier precip. So this is still just best guess at this point.

Thursday January 20th, 2011 Forecast Map

[OKCisOK4me]

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

Move to Idaho!

[OKCisOK4me]

Let's differentiate between snow and ice. Snow is eminently drivable. Ice is the problem.

Of course, there are those who insist you can drive 75 on either, and that tells you the folks who are the real problem on OK roads in winter...

LOL, yeah, big truck deep treaded tires do jack poo for you on ice. Some rednecks...

[venture]

So far looks like my guesscast from early isn't too far off from what everyone else is thinking.

Afternoon Forecast Discussion from NWS Norman...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND THEN TURN TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY NOON ON THURSDAY.

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE STORM STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. OPEN MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH VORT MAX NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING... BUT THEN EXIT QUICKLY ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE PROFILE SOLUTION TO CONTINUE TO MAKE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TRICKY. LATEST NAM RUN IS MORE BOTHERSOME IN THAT THE HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIFT IS LIMITED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURE ZONE ALOFT... WHICH OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL INITIALLY KEEP SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN PLAY UNTIL COLD ADVECTION REMOVES THIS WARM LAYER IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER. HAVE USED THE TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST BUFR SOUNDINGS TO MAKE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF WEATHER TYPES IN THE WEATHER GRIDS... BUT EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES IN MANY AREAS AS TEMPERATURE PROFILE EVOLVES. REGARDLESS.. IT APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION EVENT ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND... BUT HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS PACKAGE.

Winter Weather Advisory for the Northeastern Counties from NWS Tulsa...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ054>075-190545-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0003.110119T2100Z-110121T0000Z/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-LATIMER-
334 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...O KMULGEE...WAGONER...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAW ARE...PAWNEE...OTTAWA...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG ...NOWATA...PITTSBURG...SEQUOYAH...MCINTOSH...MUSK OGEE...LATIMER AND HASKELL.
* IN ARKANSAS...WASHINGTON...MADISON...CRAWFORD...BENTO N... SEBASTIAN...CARROLL AND FRANKLIN.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT... BUT RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING.

* UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY.

IMPACTS...
* ROADS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND NON-TREATED SURFACES.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* USE EXTRA CAUTION IF DRIVING. ATTEMPT TO STAY ON TREATED ROADWAYS. EXPECT TRAVEL DELAYS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

[Thunder]

I give up for January. Any glory for February?

[bandnerd]

Dangit, I'm going to Tulsa on Thursday. Blah.

[bretthexum]

You can have some of our snow here in northern Wisconsin. I'd kill for highs above 30!

[Bunty]

I just want a decent snowstorm to enjoy the snowy view for a while. :-( Is that too much for a kid to ask?

Did you not get enough of the Great Christmas Eve Blizzard of 2009? I imagine of lot of people who live in Florida never saw anything like that before in all their lives.