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Thread: Maps 3

  1. #151

    Default Re: Maps 3

    I wouldn't be too hard on the city budget planners. Not only are they trying to predict what market conditions will be like their also trying to predict what the men and women at the Federal Reserve, congress, etc will do.

    The Federal Reserve printing money completely changes the macroeconomic environment.

  2. #152

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by okclee View Post
    The point is all tax related projects have made or will be made to change.

    OG&E seems to be locked in with the $30 Million.

    Glad that the city was able to get substation budget right. Could be the first time that an estimated Maps project was right on the money.

    Again this is all very interesting with the MAPS3 substation removal.
    Maybe but maybe not. Steve mentioned either in the Oklahoman or in his blog that the original estimates were $75M for relocating the substation, he complained about it and Staff came back with the $30M guesstimate. Steve also mentioned that City Manager stated in the last Council meeting the $30M does NOT include the cost of relocating/burying the transmission lines that go from the substation and span the MAPS 3 Park space.

  3. #153

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    I can always tell those who aren't in the large scale construction businesses. They have no clue as to how estimating is done nor realize how volatile the commodities and construction supply costs are. We have seen some basics like copper increase nearly 50% in the last year. Steel, gas, diesel, etc. are all escalating quickly. The cost of insurance for workers, etc., etc., etc. Not to mention the city has to estimate the cost of land acquisition, etc. What is amazing is that they can get as close as they do.
    Cost are cost no matter the size or the complexity of the project. To properly estimate a large scale project takes time and effort, not just going off of previous construction pricing as does ODOT and the city. Instead of forecasting and researching the volatility of materials and labor, apparently they just throw numbers at the projects just for the sake of having a number attached to a project and hope thats close. If the city doesnt have the staff that deals with construction estimating on a daily basis, then by all means hire it out, get some help.

    There is a science to estimating. Dont throw a number out there and have the citizens vote on it unless that number is more than adequate to build the project. If we come in under budget, then lets apply it to the next project. It sure lends to credibility when you say that your going to build something for what you said it was going to cost in the allotted time frame.

  4. #154

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by betts View Post
    You're mixing me up with someone else. I never mentioned the tsunami. So we have crappy city officers, crappy management, crappy consultants, etc. I'm not sure what complaining about them on a message board will do. Become a city planner, go work for a consultant, run for office, campaign to throw people out of office. There's your solution. If you don't think it's being done right, do it yourself. It's easy to be an armchair quarterback.
    Actually, I'm not mixing you up with anyone else. It's important to read in context, Betts. You referenced the temporary price spike I said was caused by the tsunami and said, "Why don't we just wait for prices to go back down." You weren't understanding the difference between a temporary price spike (caused by the tsunami) in certain products and permanent inflationary pressures.

    You do seem to be a master of strawmen, like a few others here. I never said we have crappy officers or crappy management or crappy consultants. You just made that up or you were projecting your frustration with other people onto me. You use those other arguments to then hilariously attack "armchair" quarterbacks. It would be hilarious to compile a list of your posts that constitute armchair quarterbacking on issues like hotels in Bricktown or The Hill or the Mercy Hospital Site and its selection process or Legacy or...well, you get the point. Like you said, if you don't like the job those people do (did), do it yourself. Stop being the armchair quarterback, right?

    That's just dumb--we're on a message board meant to discuss these issues and even be--GASP!--critical of them when we don't like them. It doesn't mean we're always right, but it's hilarious you (and others) selectively throw out the armchair quarterback accusation.

  5. #155

    Default Re: Maps 3

    I appreciate criticism with alternate suggestions. Global rants serve no purpose, IMO. My "strawmen" were my interpretation of the tenor of your posts. If I misinterpreted, mea culpa. Perhaps you would do better discussing this subject with Rover, as he appears to have more experience with construction budgets than I. I try to stick with aesthetics and location in my discussions, as that is an area where I feel I have a little expertise. If your expertise is in contracting and budgets for large projects, have at it and I'll stay out of the discussion, except to say I'm generally satisfied with how we've spent our tax monies.

  6. #156

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by BOBTHEBUILDER View Post
    There is a science to estimating. Dont throw a number out there and have the citizens vote on it unless that number is more than adequate to build the project. If we come in under budget, then lets apply it to the next project. It sure lends to credibility when you say that your going to build something for what you said it was going to cost in the allotted time frame.
    This is exactly my point. We're told one thing and then get something entirely different. We're seeing this with the CC, the park, and, worst of all, the OGE substation. We're cutting down the size of the CC, the ameneties of the "destination" park, and now we're learning relocating the substation is likely going to cost far more than $30 million. The substation is the worst simply because no one remembers it even being discussed during the election, then we're given the magic number of $30 million to relocate, and then we're told that doesn't include everything required for the relocation. It's now entirely possible, we're told, that the total cost of relocating the OGE substation will be equal to nearly 10% of all the proposed MAPS 3 budget.

  7. #157

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Just go with the Bricktown site for the CC. That way you save $30 million to relocate the substation, and you save millions on purchasing land, since the city already owns the land in Bricktown. And you can spend the money you save on a nicer and larger CC.

  8. #158

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Sounds great Patrick but the Mayor has indicated that the $30M for the substation is going to be spent no matter where the C.C. ends up (well, pending Council approval which seems uncertain at this point). He stated in the first Citizen Oversight Committee meeting (where he gave a short MAPS 3 presentation) that the available money to go towards the C.C. itself (building) is really $250M

  9. #159

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick View Post
    Something to realize....when these MAPS projects are first proposed, the plans and costs are only estimates. The real costs and what the city is able to build for the money changes based on economic factors, the real costs of the development, etc. Sometimes, what's estimated isn't close to what the cost ends up being.
    This is true. the City readily admits this in the small print, which most don't read. They go by the commercials, articles and direct mail pieces that consistently throw out these "budget" numbers as if they are fact. Even with MAPS 3, over in a Gazette article, they admitted that they really don't have any idea what something is going to cost, because the due-diligence hadn't happened yet. That they wouldn't know anything until the other side of the vote. This is part of the problem. They don't have a clue.

    With MAPS 1, they didn't include things like environmental studies, landscaping etc etc etc.
    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m.../ai_n10117437/
    Bown leaves post reflecting on successes, failures (Journal Record, 1/8/98)
    retiring city manager, Don Bown...
    The city oversold MAPS to the citizens, Bown said, and should have informed citizens of the time-consuming infrastructure and environmental work that would take place before the projects took shape. "We talked about the glitzy things," Bown said. "We didn't talk about all these millions of dollars that was going to be spent long before we got to do any other stuff." The early budget numbers for the program were unrealistic, Bown said. "I can talk about this because I was one of the seven old white guys that met to discuss what MAPS was going to be and how it was going to be done and how much money we were going to have to do it," Bown said. "Many of those decisions were political decisions having nothing to do with what we wanted to build, but what you could sell to the public."

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick View Post
    Take the Bricktown ballpark for example. Original plans were for a 15,000 seat stadium. But, plans had to be scaled back to 13,000 because of the actual costs. Also, all of the plans always include optional additional items, which, if the money is available, can be included in the final bid.
    I don't remember seating capacity being scaled back on the Ballpark, but will take your word for it. I do recall changes being made on an aesthetic level (but nothing specific)

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick View Post
    But, sometimes it goes the other way. For example, costs to build the OKC Arena came in much lower than expected.
    Oooops, you were doing so well. There were many ups and downs with the Arena project. It is true that the bid came in $10M under whatever the current budget was at the time (and the City/Council were thrilled). It was discovered they had made a mistake on their bid but would "stick by it". Unfortunately, something happened along the way and it came in costing some $22M over the bid ($8.8M over what voters were told). This was after cutting 22 items from the project (articles in the Oklahoman & Journal Record indicated if they wanted them, the cut items would be paid for by the eventual tenant (RedHawks for the Ballpark) and the Thunder for the Arena. Interesting to note that the City caved and paid 50% of the finishing out costs with the RedHawks, (Clay Bennett) and paid for 100% of the finishing out costs for the Thunder (Bennett again).

    Similar stories with other MAPS projects as well. Stumbled upon this...
    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m.../ai_n10119483/
    MAPS bids under budget for fairgrounds (Journal Record, 5/22/98)
    Bids to renovate three State Fairgrounds exhibit buildings came in below budget Thursday, the third under-budget MAPS bid in as many weeks.
    ...
    "I'm obviously very pleased," [MAPS Program Manager Jim] Couch said. "I felt good on the last few projects we've had that we were going to be OK. Within the last three weeks now we've had three projects come in under budget, significant projects."
    So what happened? Just as with the Arena, something happened between bids and final costs. The projects mentioned as being bid under budget were the
    1) Fairgrounds (ended up being $2.5M over)
    2) Canal ($14M over)
    3) Myriad/Cox ($35.1M over)

  10. #160

    Default Re: Maps 3

    If I were as unhappy about what the City of OKC and the State of Oklahoma does and how they spend my tax dollars, I would move, I've never heard someone so negative in my 52 years of life.

  11. #161

    Default Re: Maps 3

    RC, You should get out more (away from the fishes)...same thing happens everywhere...I am native born OKCitian and love my hometown...just hate being lied to and mislead by the powers that be at seemingly every turn...if they would do what they said they were going to, that would be a different matter, but they don't. As others have pointed out, it is standard operating practice to over promise and under deliver. I voted for many of the elected officials and then then later betrayed (for lack of a better word) by Humphreys, Cornett (2x's), Roth and a few more. Say whatever you have to to get the vote to pass...little things like the truth and ethics etc, don't matter (this is directed more at the Chamber that does the City's "dirty" work)...the end justifies the means...As long as the voters keep falling for it, they will continue to do so.

    I look at things with a critical eye and no longer blindly accept what they are saying. Feel free to do the opposite!

  12. #162
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    Default Re: Maps 3

    And we wonder why it is so hard to progress cities. Some people are convinced everyone is lying, getting wealthy on the rest of us and have evil ulterior motives. People need to get deeply involved and actually learn about how these things are done at the ground level. There are plenty of mistakes that happen in projects the size of these and over long periods of time, but there is far less "conspiracy" than some think. If the world was as evil as some on here think I think I would go jump off a cliff.

  13. #163

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Larry OKC View Post
    Sounds great Patrick but the Mayor has indicated that the $30M for the substation is going to be spent no matter where the C.C. ends up (well, pending Council approval which seems uncertain at this point). He stated in the first Citizen Oversight Committee meeting (where he gave a short MAPS 3 presentation) that the available money to go towards the C.C. itself (building) is really $250M
    I still don't remember that being presented to us, the general public, when we voted on this. We were presented with $280 million for a convention center, not $250 million for a convention center and $30 million for an OG&E substation.

  14. #164

    Default Re: Maps 3

    You can't convince those with earplugs and blinders, oh well, I'm proud of OKC and glad to see it prosper. If were up to some, we would still be spending nights at the Fairgrounds watching the 89ers, or eating a footlong at Dairy Queen.

  15. #165

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    And we wonder why it is so hard to progress cities. Some people are convinced everyone is lying, getting wealthy on the rest of us and have evil ulterior motives. People need to get deeply involved and actually learn about how these things are done at the ground level. There are plenty of mistakes that happen in projects the size of these and over long periods of time, but there is far less "conspiracy" than some think. If the world was as evil as some on here think I think I would go jump off a cliff.
    Best post in this entire thread. The devil is in the details...when you move a project from concept to execution, it's inevitable that you will stumble into things unforeseen and unplanned for. Estimates are merely "best guesses" and estimates are always wrong. You try to manage risk as much as possible, but it's impossible to manage 100%.

  16. #166

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by earlywinegareth View Post
    Best post in this entire thread. The devil is in the details...when you move a project from concept to execution, it's inevitable that you will stumble into things unforeseen and unplanned for. Estimates are merely "best guesses" and estimates are always wrong. You try to manage risk as much as possible, but it's impossible to manage 100%.
    While I would hope for 100%, I know that ain't goin' to happen either. If they were even close to the 100%, again, within acceptable parameters. When the final cost comes in nearly 50% more than what was sold to the public (MAPS 1), then there is a problem. When $40M "mistakes" are made on a $40M project (Trails), there is a problem. When costs escalate where instead of 57 miles, you only get 32 (Trails again, hopefully the cost of asphalt will go back down or they can use a comparable quality but less expensive alternative), there is a problem.


    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick View Post
    I still don't remember that being presented to us, the general public, when we voted on this. We were presented with $280 million for a convention center, not $250 million for a convention center and $30 million for an OG&E substation.
    You are correct. I did run across the disclaimer info from a City of Oklahoma City Press Release dated 9/17/09 (Contact David Holt) on page 5 of the 24 pg document (following the project list/descriptions, the following...
    A note regarding cost estimates: Cost estimates for each project are approximate. It is expected that some projects may cost more than estimated, and some may cost less. Just as in MAPS, the cost estimates for individual projects are not included in the legal documents, they are merely guides the Mayor and Council use to calculate the necessary length of the tax collection.

    A note regarding the revenue estimate: The estimate that a one-cent sales tax for seven years, nine months will raise $777 million is merely that, an estimate. However, in 2001, City staff came within $2 million of correctly estimating the ultimate sales tax revenues of the seven-year MAPS for Kids sales tax.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    And we wonder why it is so hard to progress cities. Some people are convinced everyone is lying, getting wealthy on the rest of us and have evil ulterior motives. People need to get deeply involved and actually learn about how these things are done at the ground level. There are plenty of mistakes that happen in projects the size of these and over long periods of time, but there is far less "conspiracy" than some think. If the world was as evil as some on here think I think I would go jump off a cliff.
    I don't agree with the entire litany but on certain points, when you are presented with the evidence time & time again....

    When those involved come out and tell you point blank that things were done in a certain fashion just to get it sold to the voters...you know, you described it yourself, "how these things are done".

  17. #167

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick View Post
    I still don't remember that being presented to us, the general public, when we voted on this. We were presented with $280 million for a convention center, not $250 million for a convention center and $30 million for an OG&E substation.
    I do seem to remember that there was $ 30 million included for the relocation of the OG&E substation. I also found it ironic that OG&E donated $ 50K or was it $ 100K to the MAP3 yes camp. The $ 100K may have been Chesapeake. I will have to double check. Anyway, it seemed a little fishy to me at the time and after seeing that its going to take twice that figure to get the job done, it seems a lot fishy now. Make no mistake, that substation will be relocated and we will be on the hook for the extra money it cost to move it.
    Last edited by BOBTHEBUILDER; 04-25-2011 at 05:42 PM. Reason: spelling error

  18. #168
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    Default Re: Maps 3

    Or, we can ignore the relocation issue and try to saddle any future developers with the cost, in which case they will just say no and leave the area blighted.

  19. #169

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Good point, Rover.

  20. #170

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Rover View Post
    Or, we can ignore the relocation issue and try to saddle any future developers with the cost, in which case they will just say no and leave the area blighted.
    Or do as in the past, pay for the move out of pocket, then pass it on to the customer with a much needed rate increase.

  21. #171
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    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by rcjunkie View Post
    Or do as in the past, pay for the move out of pocket, then pass it on to the customer with a much needed rate increase.
    Ah, the third basic law of economics....there is no such thing as a free lunch.

    Besides, you dont honestly believe you pay only for just the utility cost you are responsible for, do you? You may very well get subsidized yourself. It is a utility where system costs are spread. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Infrastructure costs are spread across the whole.

  22. #172

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Tomorrow at 10:00 AM the MAPS 3 Oversight Board meets at City Hall. Item #5 on the agenda, recommend MAPS 3 Implementation Plan Project Order.

    This is where the rubber meets the road on what larger projects get potentially pushed forward or pushed back. IE: Streetcar/Transit Hub, Park, Convention Center.

  23. #173

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Proposed schedule "Option #1" approved and moves forward to council. Streetcar schedule safe and reasonably timed.

    Whew...

    Many thanks to those who came out and to our Chair and Co Chair of the MAPS 3 Transit Subcommittee.

  24. #174

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Good news!

  25. #175

    Default Re: Maps 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Urban Pioneer View Post
    Proposed schedule "Option #1" approved and moves forward to council. Streetcar schedule safe and reasonably timed.

    Whew...

    Many thanks to those who came out and to our Chair and Co Chair of the MAPS 3 Transit Subcommittee.
    is this the "revisied option 1" that moves tranist phase 2 back 2 years .. and add the study phase?

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