Maps 3

[betts]

Has anyone said we're going to spend the extra $40 million to complete the trails? If not, we're not behind, just incorrect.

[Larry OKC]

Has anyone said we're going to spend the extra $40 million to complete the trails? If not, we're not behind, just incorrect.

If they complete the Trails Master Plan as promised, then yes, we are behind. May be like the Canal, where eventually we will get all of it as promised (just years or decades later at even larger additional cost). But remember the Mayor stated one of the reasons the Trails were included in MAPS 3 because it was going to take decades to complete the Master Plan. With MAPS 3, it would complete/all but complete/virtually complete the plan. We find out about the "mistake" and guess what, we are still years and possibly decade(s) away from completing the Master Plan. Good news is, instead of it taking 3 or 4 decades, they have cut it down to 1 or 2!

Partially completed promise if we get the 57 promised miles as it leaves us with 60 miles that are unfinished (the other half of the promise). Same thing happened with MAPS. Yes, all of the main projects were built BUT 1) not on time, 2) not on budget and 3) not as promised. When this "mistake" came to light during the Council meeting, the idea was floated to redefine the Master Plan to fit within the 57 mile promise.

By Mayor's Norick, Humphreys & Cornett own definition MAPS was a "disaster" as the criteria they put forth were not met.

http://www.kansas.com/2010/06/06/134...ls-turned.html

The City Council must develop and maintain credibility with the public: Get quality projects done on time and on budget.

"It's vital. Just vital," Norick said. "If you don't have credibility with the public, you won't get anything done.

"As long as the city and your leadership does and says what it's going to do, the voters will keep voting for what we want to do.

"But if you trip up, you lose credibility, you lose the faith of your voters and it's over."

Any project that veers off-track, coming in late, over-budget or less than advertised, is disaster, the mayors said.

How many of the original MAPS projects, singularly or some combination of all 4:
1) veered off track?
2) were behind schedule?
3) over budget?
4) less than advertised?

Yet voters have a notoriously short memory and when told by their esteemed leaders "promises made, promises kept" or that the City has an excellent track record of building things on time and on budget (as Mayor Cornett erroneously stated without objection by the Ogle, Turpin or Humphreys on FlashPoint).

[Rover]

Yeah, Maps programs have all been failure and our leaders were liars and crooks. They stole from us and we got nothing of value. If done right we could have reinvigorated OKC and made it an economic leader in this miserable economy. I hope we go back to where we were 25 years ago when things were great in OKC and we had dynamic leadership.


(EXTREME sarcasm intended)

[CaseyCornett]

Yeah, Maps programs have all been failure and our leaders were liars and crooks. They stole from us and we got nothing of value. If done right we could have reinvigorated OKC and made it an economic leader in this miserable economy. I hope we go back to where we were 25 years ago when things were great in OKC and we had dynamic leadership.


(EXTREME sarcasm intended)

Haha

[grandshoemaster]

Rover - I totally agree!! Maps has and is completely transforming our city. I can handle any bad that comes with Maps 3, because the good outweighs it by far.

[Larry OKC]

Yeah, Maps programs have all been failure and our leaders were liars and crooks. They stole from us and we got nothing of value. If done right we could have reinvigorated OKC and made it an economic leader in this miserable economy. I hope we go back to where we were 25 years ago when things were great in OKC and we had dynamic leadership.


(EXTREME sarcasm intended)

Rover, it is THEIR definition of the term, not mine.

[Pete]

I've deleted a ton of posts that are way off topic.

If you want to talk about public safety do it in one of the numerous other threads on that subject.

Thanks.

[okclee]

Interesting that every part of the MAPS3 is being downgraded because of less tax revenue or poor budgeting, but the OG&E substation removal stays the same at $30 Million.

Example;
Convention center being downsized
Trails being downsized
Central park being downsized

Other recent projects that weren't MAPS but also were downsized;
Skydance Bridge,
Ford Center Upgrades,
Thunder practice facility.

All because either the a poor budget or the tax revenues are less than estimated.

I get that, economy is unpredictable, but why is the OG&E $30 Million not being affected? Shouldn't it now be $20 Million or less?

[BoulderSooner]

Interesting that every part of the MAPS3 is being downgraded because of less tax revenue or poor budgeting, but the OG&E substation removal stays the same at $30 Million.

Example;
Convention center being downsized
Trails being downsized
Central park being downsized

Other recent projects that weren't MAPS but also were downsized;
Skydance Bridge,
Ford Center Upgrades,
Thunder practice facility.

All because either the a poor budget or the tax revenues are less than estimated.

I get that, economy is unpredictable, but why is the OG&E $30 Million not being affected? Shouldn't it now be $20 Million or less?

using your logic .. is actually shoud cost more now not less .. the 30 mil was to buy the lot from OG&E and relocate the substation ... so if cost are going up that number the 30 mil would also go up

[okclee]

The point is all tax related projects have made or will be made to change.

OG&E seems to be locked in with the $30 Million.

Glad that the city was able to get substation budget right. Could be the first time that an estimated Maps project was right on the money.

Again this is all very interesting with the MAPS3 substation removal.

[BoulderSooner]

The point is all tax related projects have made or will be made to change.

OG&E seems to be locked in with the $30 Million.

Glad that the city was able to get substation budget right. Could be the first time that an estimated Maps project was right on the money.

Again this is all very interesting with the MAPS3 substation removal.

the 30 mil is just and est.... this has been said many times by eric wenger the maps manager .. the actually cost of the land and moving the substation they suspect will be lower ..

[betts]

I don't believe a poor budget is responsible, but rather that construction costs have increased beyond what was anticipated. For instance, as noted in the article, asphalt prices have apparently been increasing significantly. When you've got a 7 year project, and planning for that project begins years before it is implemented, you're never going to be able to accurately assess costs. If we want the city to stay within budget, then we have to accept that items will cost what they cost, and the scope of projects will have to be adjusted accordingly. If we're fine with spending extra money to achieve what was "promised", then we'll have to suck it up and vote for an add-on tax. No one can wave a magic wand and make costs absolutely line up with estimates.

[okclee]

Ah, but the Mayor's magic wand has been waved and the $30 Million for the OG&E substation will be spot on.

[king183]

I don't believe a poor budget is responsible, but rather that construction costs have increased beyond what was anticipated. For instance, as noted in the article, asphalt prices have apparently been increasing significantly. When you've got a 7 year project, and planning for that project begins years before it is implemented, you're never going to be able to accurately assess costs. If we want the city to stay within budget, then we have to accept that items will cost what they cost, and the scope of projects will have to be adjusted accordingly. If we're fine with spending extra money to achieve what was "promised", then we'll have to suck it up and vote for an add-on tax. No one can wave a magic wand and make costs absolutely line up with estimates.

Betts, I'm not expecting a magic wand, but I do believe a competent economist or budget officer could have predicted, foreseen, or at least took into account rising prices, given that's what happens 90% of the time (we rarely have deflation). In fact, most cost-projections I've reviewed have, at the very least, included such a scenario in their projections. It seems as if the city was caught completely off guard that the price of materials could possibly go up.

[BoulderSooner]

Betts, I'm not expecting a magic wand, but I do believe a competent economist or budget officer could have predicted, foreseen, or at least took into account rising prices, given that's what happens 90% of the time (we rarely have deflation). In fact, most cost-projections I've reviewed have, at the very least, included such a scenario in their projections. It seems as if the city was caught completely off guard that the price of materials could possibly go up.

a huge factor in the rising prices of raw materials has been the tsumani in japan .. please tell us which "compentent economist or budget officer" could have predicted that?

[king183]

a huge factor in the rising prices of raw materials has been the tsumani in japan .. please tell us which "compentent economist or budget officer" could have predicted that?

Wow! Give me a break!

That causes a temporary price spike in very specific products--and it's certainly not a "HUGE" factor. We haven't even begun building yet. By the time the CC construction is started any price effects from the tsunami will be gone.

[betts]

And if the price spikes are temporary, I'm sure we'll get more for our money. We're going to spend the entire $770 million, you can be sure. No one is going to lie about costs and funnel the money into some private slush fund. So, if prices drop before construction begins, then we'll probably get more miles of sidewalks, or more amenities in the park. What I don't understand is the apparent anger when we're all armchair quarterbacks here. Let s/he who can perfectly budget expenditures and projects like that over a ten year period cast the first stone. Or at least provide examples of multiple other cities who seem to be able to do so.

[Urban Pioneer]

TODAY'S OKLAHOMAN ARTICLE RECAP FROM THE MEETING

"Moving up the suggested date for building the MAPS 3-funded convention center would likely mean delaying work on the downtown park or streetcar system, city officials learned Tuesday."

Read more: http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-offi...#ixzz1K5GWrRys

[Patrick]

Something to realize....when these MAPS projects are first proposed, the plans and costs are only estimates. The real costs and what the city is able to build for the money changes based on economic factors, the real costs of the development, etc. Sometimes, what's estimated isn't close to what the cost ends up being.

Take the Bricktown ballpark for example. Original plans were for a 15,000 seat stadium. But, plans had to be scaled back to 13,000 because of the actual costs. Also, all of the plans always include optional additional items, which, if the money is available, can be included in the final bid. But, sometimes it goes the other way. For example, costs to build the OKC Arena came in much lower than expected.

Really, you can't nail down how much a project is actually going to costs until the project is put out there for bids, and the bids come in. It's all estimating.

[king183]

And if the price spikes are temporary, I'm sure we'll get more for our money. We're going to spend the entire $770 million, you can be sure. No one is going to lie about costs and funnel the money into some private slush fund. So, if prices drop before construction begins, then we'll probably get more miles of sidewalks, or more amenities in the park. What I don't understand is the apparent anger when we're all armchair quarterbacks here. Let s/he who can perfectly budget expenditures and projects like that over a ten year period cast the first stone. Or at least provide examples of multiple other cities who seem to be able to do so.

You're mixing the two. Temporary price spikes related to the affects of the tsunami, which are actually quite small and on very specific products, most of which wouldn't affect construction costs in the U.S. anyway.

Mize indicated scaled down projects due to long-term, permanent price inflation, which should have been accounted for by competent budget officers and economists in the projections since it is entirely predictable, especially over the long-term outlook.

And, please, stop with the strawmen. I'm not asking for a perfect budget projection--no one is. I'm asking for a competent one that properly forecasts inflationary pressures And I'm not claiming money is being funneled into a private slush fund. I don't even know where that came from.

[BOBTHEBUILDER]

a huge factor in the rising prices of raw materials has been the tsumani in japan .. please tell us which "compentent economist or budget officer" could have predicted that?

The same cost estimators and/or budget analyst that predict cost everyday in the private industry. Yearly we have disasters in this city, state, country as well as globally. We have events that drive up cost everyday, and those costs rarely if ever come down once the disaster has been cleaned up. Look at the local level, hailstorms, tornadoes, flooding, wild fires, ice storms, drought, etc. Then look at the national level, hurricanes, tornadoes, wild fires, many of the same catastrophes. These things are inevidable and are taken into account daily by private industry. You cannot lowball a price to the citizens and then be suprised when you cannot complete a project on time or within budget 5 or so years away.

[BOBTHEBUILDER]

You're mixing the two. Temporary price spikes related to the affects of the tsunami, which are actually quite small and on very specific products, most of which wouldn't affect construction costs in the U.S. anyway.

Mize indicated scaled down projects due to long-term, permanent price inflation, which should have been accounted for by competent budget officers and economists in the projections since it is entirely predictable, especially over the long-term outlook.

And, please, stop with the strawmen. I'm not asking for a perfect budget projection--no one is. I'm asking for a competent one that properly forecasts inflationary pressures And I'm not claiming money is being funneled into a private slush fund. I don't even know where that came from.

We have had several price spikes in the past 15 years, metal prices rising, roofing materials rising, shortage of drywall and brick, fuel surcharges, plywood and lumber pricing fluxuating, wiring prices on the rise, just to mention a few and not to forget theft of items. Some of the items continue to rise, while others have stabilized or even dropped a bit.

[BOBTHEBUILDER]

a huge factor in the rising prices of raw materials has been the tsumani in japan .. please tell us which "compentent economist or budget officer" could have predicted that?

The same cost estimators and/or budget analyst that predict cost everyday in the private industry. Yearly we have disasters in this city, state, country as well as globally. We have events that drive up cost everyday, and those costs rarely if ever come down once the disaster has been cleaned up. Look at the local level, hailstorms, tornadoes, flooding, wild fires, ice storms, drought, etc. Then look at the national level, hurricanes, tornadoes, wild fires, many of the same catastrophes. These things are inevidable and are taken into account daily by private industry. You cannot lowball a price to the citizens and then be suprised when you cannot complete a project on time or within budget 5 or so years away.

[betts]

You're mixing the two. Temporary price spikes related to the affects of the tsunami, which are actually quite small and on very specific products, most of which wouldn't affect construction costs in the U.S. anyway.

Mize indicated scaled down projects due to long-term, permanent price inflation, which should have been accounted for by competent budget officers and economists in the projections since it is entirely predictable, especially over the long-term outlook.

And, please, stop with the strawmen. I'm not asking for a perfect budget projection--no one is. I'm asking for a competent one that properly forecasts inflationary pressures And I'm not claiming money is being funneled into a private slush fund. I don't even know where that came from.

You're mixing me up with someone else. I never mentioned the tsunami. So we have crappy city officers, crappy management, crappy consultants, etc. I'm not sure what complaining about them on a message board will do. Become a city planner, go work for a consultant, run for office, campaign to throw people out of office. There's your solution. If you don't think it's being done right, do it yourself. It's easy to be an armchair quarterback.

[Rover]

I can always tell those who aren't in the large scale construction businesses. They have no clue as to how estimating is done nor realize how volatile the commodities and construction supply costs are. We have seen some basics like copper increase nearly 50% in the last year. Steel, gas, diesel, etc. are all escalating quickly. The cost of insurance for workers, etc., etc., etc. Not to mention the city has to estimate the cost of land acquisition, etc. What is amazing is that they can get as close as they do.