Weather Outlook Discussion Week of 5-17 and beyond

[venture]

Dry.

Okay see everyone next week.

Kidding. : )

Here is a rough look at the next two weeks...yes this is going to change a ton, but just giving an idea of what to look for.

Sat 5/23 some slight chance of scattered rain. Activity should move into Eastern Oklahoma by evening. Severe storms will be in the West Kansas and the Panhandles late in the day and over night.

Sun 5/24 some of the overnight activity may move into the western half of Oklahoma. Storms will be scattered throughout the state on Sunday, but not a wash out right now.

Monday-Tuesday another complex in SW Kansas will form and move into Oklahoma over night into Tuesday morning.

Wednesday - isolated activity. yawn.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday should be quiet.

Sunday 5/31 into Monday 6/1 looks like complex in SW KS again that may move SE.

Everything though is really up in the air. Upper air pattern is pretty blah, no major steering currents with a very relaxed flow from the south during most of this.

[OKCisOK4me]

Two days on Lake Tenkiller with a chance of storms. Hope they come through late at night--both rounds!

[Thunder]

Two days on Lake Tenkiller with a chance of storms. Hope they come through late at night--both rounds!

I want them come thru the day, not night! It's more visible during the day!

[Charlie40]

Looks like Boring weather for this entire week, hopefully the pattern will change back to stormy before long.

[westsidesooner]

Hey V. I know this is a little off topic but I'm curious. Have you ever seen a spring storm season like this one? I can't remember there being ANY classic dryline events this spring. Not one. Every system thats come through has been associated primarly with the cold fronts. Another odd thing is the west and northwest flow. We dont usually see that until June, but this year its been dominate since early May. The few times we had sw flow, some other part of the mix was wrong for storms. What gives? Its just odd to be watching the north and northwest sky (radar) for storms approaching the metro. I'm much more accustomed to watching the southwest sky. Its gotta suck for the V2 crew......talk about bad timing.

[venture]

Yeah V2 started about a month too late. One thing that has stood out to me is that moisture has been crazy this year. Sure we had situations with tropical systems coming over and parking on us for weeks and dumping a lot of water, but not where the gulf has been this open nonstop. I think that has really killed the ability for anything to really dry out enough to allow for more classic setups.

Definitely early for northwest flow stuff...but who knows. Maybe we'll snap into a period where more classic spring weather will happen in June before we heat up and dry out too much.

[Thunder]

We're overdued for another F5 in the metro area, now changed to EF5.

[venture]

We're overdued for another F5 in the metro area, now changed to EF5.

No we aren't. Violent tornadoes hitting metro areas is not some common thing, and i'm sorry...even I would not want to see another monster get close to the city.

[Thunder]

I learned that a tornado of that scale hitting OKC is once every 3 to 5 years on average. Five years later after the May 3rd, I was waiting for it to come back. Now, it is 10 years later. Yes, we're overdued.

I didn't say it was common and the 3 to 5 years in between is rare enough. It may not be this year, but the next year will bring us higher chances for the monster to come back.

[venture]

I learned that a tornado of that scale hitting OKC is once every 3 to 5 years on average. Five years later after the May 3rd, I was waiting for it to come back. Now, it is 10 years later. Yes, we're overdued.

I didn't say it was common and the 3 to 5 years in between is rare enough. It may not be this year, but the next year will bring us higher chances for the monster to come back.

If that is what you were taught, it was wrong. : ) The shortest time period before 4 or 5 tornadoes impacting the OKC metro has gone anywhere from 3 years apart to 29 years apart, or every 12 years on average. We've only had 1 F5/EF5 impact the city in the last 116 years.

NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Table of Tornadoes Which Have Occurred in the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Area Since 1890

F4/EF4 or F5/EF5 Tornado Years
1893
1912
1930
1942
1945
1949
1978
1999 - Only recorded F5/EF5 in OKC city limits.
2003

[westsidesooner]

From what I can see the metro gets hit by a strong/violent tornado (f4-f5) approx. once every 13 years. There have been nine such tornadoes to strike the metro since 1890, with three of those during the 1940's. And only 3 since 1949.....those being in 1978, 1999, and 2003. Heres a month by month graph.


What times of day/night they struck graph.



And a tornadoes in the metro by decade graph.



Heres a map showing the strength and path of the tornadoes to strike the metro.



Here is a link to the complete list of the 123 reported tornadoes that have struck the metro since 1890.

NWS Norman, Oklahoma - Table of Tornadoes Which Have Occurred in the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Area Since 1890

The tornado(es) that started it all for me....as far as scaring the poop outta me when I was a kid were #58 and #59. Then there was #88 that struck the village during the remnants of a tropical storm...that one was two blocks away from me. Then there was #94....my most exciting tornado. I had been chasing that day and caught the tornado (not on the list) that touched down west of Gutrhie. We headed back into the city in time to catch the tornadic storm that eventually touched down on lake Hefner. I got some awesome pics and video of it moving over the lake. It was also my stupidest chase because I put myself in a position to be directly under it as it passed over lake Hefner golf course......just 1/2-1 mile before touching down. We watched it cross the lake from the west side on the dam and could see water being lifted from the lake into the storm....and HUGE waves all across the lake.

EDIT:Sorry V....I guess we were looking up the same graphs this morning...............

[Thunder]

Ah, okay.

Luv the graphs!

[Thunder]

[OKCisOK4me]

Damn you guys owned Thunder. Too bad he roars after the lightning!



Run for cover...

[Jon27]

So Venture, is it going to start raining again?

[Thunder]

Damn you guys owned Thunder. Too bad he roars after the lightning!



Run for cover...

It was something I learned from the weather people. I believed it for so many years, since the May's Fury.

I'm happy that Venture and WSS brought the facts to light. Now we all learn something new.

[OKCisOK4me]

So Venture, is it going to start raining again?

I, at least, did a forecast search for Cookson, OK (NE side of Tenkiller) on intellicast.com & weather.com to find out how BS'ish Channel 4's forecasts for this weekend are. Both those sites which are usually right after the day actually passes had forecasts for ISOLATED t'storms. Not MODERATE for the whole east side of the state like what was shown last night on the 10pm news.

Where ever you may be, use a national prediction site that doesn't go for ratings.

[Thunder]

I, at least, did a forecast search for Cookson, OK (NE side of Tenkiller) on intellicast.com & weather.com to find out how BS'ish Channel 4's forecasts for this weekend are. Both those sites which are usually right after the day actually passes had forecasts for ISOLATED t'storms. Not MODERATE for the whole east side of the state like what was shown last night on the 10pm news.

Where ever you may be, use a national prediction site that doesn't go for ratings.

I saw KFOR Jon this morning and he forecasted isolated showers and T-storms. I believe him.

[OKCisOK4me]

Yeah, I'm glad they all have different forecasts. It just goes to show that you just can't accurately predict weather here one bit, lol...