Widgets Magazine
Page 1 of 5 12345 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 105
  1. Default Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Major concerns today are storms producing large hail. No specific location is better than another today. So many boundaries are laying all over the place, any spot could become the focal point for today. Short term models show a general coverage in precip today, but not of any really heavy amounts. This doesn't mean someone won't get heavy rain today or severe weather, just that models can't pinpoint what areas have a greater chance.



    Hail Risk:


    Satellite Image (1KM)


    NEXRAD Mosaic Radar

  2. #2

    Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    I'm ready for the rain to take a multi-day break. I know folks whose work mandates dry weather so they can tackle their tasks. They're a tad restless when it stays wet like this.
    That sat photo certainly wouldn't raise their spirits.
    Last edited by kevinpate; 04-30-2009 at 08:53 AM. Reason: typo

  3. #3

    Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    I have to admit I'm ready for some dry sunny weather too. Hopefully the rain will hold off long enough this evening for me to get the lawn mowed. Before the neighbors start complaining. From the latest hazrdous weather outlook its sounds like the NWS will be focusing their attention on north cetral through central Oklahoma this afternoon. There should be several outflow boundaries around (although they are hard to pic up right now on radar and sat.) The new SPC outlook should be out by noon. Be interesting to see if anything changes in their discussion from this morning. Til then... heres the NWS discussion.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    1014 AM CDT THU APR 30 2009

    TIMING...
    THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM
    THROUGH THE NIGHT.

    IMPACTS...
    SOME DAMAGE TO VEGETATION...AUTOMOBILES...AND HOMES...FROM HAIL TO
    THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS.

    LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE FROM 75 MPH WINDS.

    A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES.

    DISCUSSION...
    RICH GULF MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
    AND LOCALLY UPPER 60S...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
    NORTHWEST. FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...A SMALL COMPLEX OF
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF STILLWATER...DOWN TO INTERSTATE
    40. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO
    SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ELSEWHERE...THE
    ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE PLENTY OF HEATING...RESULTING IN STRONG
    INSTABILITY...WITH CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2500...AND POSSIBLY
    APPROACHING 3500 LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CAP STRENGTH WILL BE GREATEST
    TO THE WEST...AND WEAKEST NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL
    MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND A WIND SHIFT...OR TROUGH AHEAD OF
    THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
    DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
    PONCA CITY TO WATONGA AND MANGUM. THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
    EXPECTED WHERE THE TROUGH OVERTAKES THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTH
    CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. INITIALLY...MODERATE WIND SHEAR AND
    STRONG INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SUPERCELLS...WITH A RISK OF VERY
    LARGE HAIL...AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY
    QUICKLY GROW INTO A COMPLEX...HOWEVER...AND BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AND
    SOUTHEAST...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...IN
    ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

  4. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Oh the HUMIDITY!!!

    Yeah, I'm waiting on that data to come out. It should be anytime now.

  5. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Jon at KFOR is calling for a Moderate Risk throughout North Central, including the metro, for later today. Areas surrounding the Moderate Risk is also at risk as well, especially under Slight Risk. Highlighted areas on the weather map is only an estimate.

    Main risks is heavy rain, lightning, wind, and large hail. Isolated tornadoes is possible.

  6. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Latest NWS Discussion

    SKIES WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MVFR CONDITIONS
    AT BEST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SITES. LATER
    THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW...LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
    THE NORTHERN SITES WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. THERE
    IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER
    THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC
    WILL AT LEAST HAVE STORMS IN THE AREA.

  7. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    MCD out for the NE counties.



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0155 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 301855Z - 302100Z

    REMNANT MCV IS SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS NCNTRL AR WITH BREAKS IN
    EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS NOW OCCURRING NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITHIN
    COOLER AIRMASS OVER WCNTRL AR/ECNTRL OK. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
    APPEARS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG
    WRN PERIPHERY OF SFC MESO-SCALE COLD DOME. WITH TIME THIS ACTIVITY
    MAY CONGEAL AND BECOME ROOTED A BIT LOWER AS IT APPROACHES STEEPER
    BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALONG I-40 OVER AR. IF THIS
    OCCURS...UPWARD GROWTH IS POSSIBLE AND SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE.
    LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

    ..DARROW.. 04/30/2009

  8. #8

    Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Venture, see those 2 outflow boundries parked right over OKC? Yikes. Same thing happened in KS last night and they got about 6 naders. I'm hoping for just hail, but sometimes those colliding boundries spin up, even with minimal shear.

  9. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    It looks like the Low is still tracking SE. Have that changed, Venture?

    The dryline out west is entering the state. I still think that the metro have a decent chance.

    Venture?




  10. #10

    Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Off at 4:00, home by 4:30... I'm hoping nothing happens by then.

    I HAVE to mow!

  11. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Quote Originally Posted by Luke View Post
    Off at 4:00, home by 4:30... I'm hoping nothing happens by then.

    I HAVE to mow!
    Me too. I got a couple of mowing to do, but I'm delaying all that.

  12. #12

    Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Get a goat they can mow rain or shine

  13. #13

    Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Quote Originally Posted by Charlie40 View Post
    Get a goat they can mow rain or shine
    Although I do live in Del City, I don't think a backyard goat would fly.


  14. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Quote Originally Posted by Luke View Post
    Although I do live in Del City, I don't think a backyard goat would fly.

    My aunt way out in the small town next to Checotah (forgot the name) had a goat. It was very cute! That was a long time ago and she got rid of him, because he was interfering with the neighbors, getting on top of cars, etc. They are capable of jumping the fence.

  15. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Rainfall totals for today and tomorrow.

    (Pix may change since the time of this post.)



    .DISCUSSION...ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN
    IN OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN CONSTANTLY
    AT ANY LOCATION...WE ANTICIPATE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
    RAIN...AND AT SOME TIMES WE WILL SEE ORGANIZATION ON LARGER SCALES.
    EVEN THE MOST ISOLATED STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN...AS WE
    MAINTAIN A DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING
    IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. COMBINING THIS
    REASONING WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
    VALUES /MEANING THAT IT WILL TAKE LITTLE RAIN TO PRODUCE FLASH
    FLOODING/ WE CHOSE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS NECESSARILY
    LARGE AND LONG LIVED...THROUGH SUNDAY.

    THIS AFTERNOON...WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAD OVERSPREAD THE
    AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT LAPSE RATES REMAINED STEEP...YIELDING LARGE
    MEASURES OF INSTABILITY. THE CAP WILL LIMIT THE NUMBER OF EVENING
    THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A FEW ARE LIKELY TO FORM...FIRST NEAR THE
    INTERSECTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
    OR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SECOND IN AN ISOLATED FASHION
    SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
    ANY OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE
    WEATHER. THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH...HOWEVER...WILL HAVE A BETTER
    OPPORTUNITY TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A COMPLEX. IF THIS
    OCCURS...THE COMPLEX MAY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET
    OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE RED RIVER. THIS WAS ONE REASON TO
    TAKE THE FLOOD WATCH ALL THE WAY TO OUR SOUTHERN BORDER.

    MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT INDEPENDENT OF THE EVENING ACTIVITY...WE WILL
    SEE A STRONGLY FORCED AREA FOR ASCENT DEVELOP IN KANSAS AND FAR
    NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD MORNING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING
    ON A ZONE OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS MAY SUSTAIN RAIN AND
    STORMS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A SURFACE
    FRONT THAT SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
    MAY LIGHT UP WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
    OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE WILL AGAIN FEED ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
    ABUNDANT MOISTURE GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME...
    OUTFLOWS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT...AND OUR UNCERTAINTY
    INCREASES. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A WELL
    DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
    SUNDAY...CAUSING A WAVE ON THE FRONT...AND SPREADING RAIN WELL UP TO
    THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN A ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THEREFORE...IF
    FLOODING IS A PROBLEM...IT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM EVEN WELL
    NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WAS ANOTHER REASON TO TAKE THE
    FLOOD WATCH OUT FAR IN TIME...THROUGH SUNDAY.
    AT 3 PM...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
    FROM NEAR CHANDLER TO NEAR ENID... A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
    AREA NEAR ARNETT. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN PARTS
    OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES...TEMPERATURES HAD
    WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
    GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

    THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
    SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
    NORTH TEXAS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID
    80S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
    SURFACE BOUNDARIES AS THE CAP WEAKNES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

    IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
    SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

  16. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0513 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 302213Z - 302345Z

    A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN
    INITIATE IN NRN AND CNTRL OK. THE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
    PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE
    AREA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF STORM INITIATION WITH WW
    ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

    LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
    WOODWARD EXTENDING ESEWD TO NEAR GUTHRIE AND MUSKOGEE. NORTH OF THE
    BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS STRONGLY CAPPED AND THE RUC SUGGESTS
    LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. IN
    SPITE OF WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING...STORM INITIATION REMAINS
    POSSIBLE SOMETIME FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING ESPECIALLY IF LOW-LEVEL
    CONVERGENCE CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE. IF STORMS CAN
    INITIATE...REGIONAL PROFILERS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SUGGEST ABOUT 40
    KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EXISTS. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE
    TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS
    ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A
    TORNADO...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.

  17. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    This gives a good idea where they are watching. This is from the SPC's mesoscale analysis page showing current moisture convergence.


  18. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0536 PM CDT THU APR 30 2009

    AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

    VALID 302236Z - 302330Z

    CORRECTED FOR LOCATION

    ISOLD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER NWRN TX AND SWRN OK
    OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR...STORMS WILL
    LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
    WW.

    VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE
    DRYLINE IN NWRN TX. ALTHOUGH VISUAL APPEARANCE OF THE CU AND CURRENT
    MESOANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK CINH REMAINS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING
    OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY ACT TO SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE
    CAP...ALLOWING STORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE
    RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND GENERAL RIDGING
    ALOFT. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY QUICKLY BECOME
    ROOTED AT THE SURFACE AND BECOME SEVERE IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
    GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40 KTS OF 0 TO 6 KM NWLY BULK
    SHEAR...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE
    EXPECTED. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. SHOULD
    INITIATION APPEAR TO BE IMMINENT...A WW WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED
    QUICKLY.

    ..HURLBUT.. 04/30/2009

  19. #19

    Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    The lawn is mowed! Rain, commence!

  20. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Storms is firing far SW. This could be da bomb!

  21. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Nothing down to the SW yet except for some false echoes on radar. There is some development in the NE now. One other area that really has my attention right now is in NW Oklahoma where there seems to be a very thick CU developing there now.

  22. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    I was just watching Mike and he was pinpointing clouds starting to go up in the SW area, I think the TX area. I was putting together wooden birds to hang outside under the tree.

  23. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    There are some down there, but they aren't doing much.

    Oklahoma 1km Resolution Radar and Satellite Imagery

  24. Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    The ones you mentioned in the NW, what direction are they moving?

  25. #25

    Default Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1

    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
    I was just watching Mike and he was pinpointing clouds starting to go up in the SW area, I think the TX area. I was putting together wooden birds to hang outside under the tree.
    Cause the would...attract...the storms and....make them comes toward OKC? lol

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Severe Weather - April 26th - Potential Tornado Outbreak
    By venture in forum Current Events & Open Topic
    Replies: 78
    Last Post: 04-27-2009, 02:18 AM
  2. Severe Weather - April 16, 17, & 18 (Thur, Fri, Sat)
    By venture in forum Current Events & Open Topic
    Replies: 43
    Last Post: 04-19-2009, 05:02 AM
  3. Severe Weather Risk - 3/23/2009 (Monday)
    By venture in forum Current Events & Open Topic
    Replies: 82
    Last Post: 03-24-2009, 11:01 PM
  4. Severe Weather Risk - 3/9/2009
    By venture in forum Current Events & Open Topic
    Replies: 57
    Last Post: 03-10-2009, 05:19 PM
  5. Severe Weather - Feb 10 2009
    By venture in forum Politics
    Replies: 38
    Last Post: 02-13-2009, 09:08 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO