Oklahoma City real estate market

[mecarr]

My wife and I are consiering buying a house sometime in the end of the year. We think it would be a good idea to invest in something rather than rent, plus we need a yard for the dog. However, we have no idea what the real estate market in Oklahoma City is going to do, thus we dont' know when we should buy. From what I've seen, the home prices haven't really been going down in OKC like they have in other areas of the country. But I am thinking that with rising unemployment and the overall sagging economy, that the OKC real estate market could take a tumble within the next year. So what do you think will happen? When would be a good time to buy a home?

Thanks for the help.

[Lurker34]

Well interest rates are good. Just bought a house at 5%. You're right housing prices have continued to climb, don't know how long that will last.

[onthestrip]

I dont see OKC's market tumbling anytime soon, never was extrememly overvalued to begin with. I do think though that by waiting another 6 months you could possibly find better deals. I am thinking that unemployment levels are just now begining to rise slightly here in the metro and state, mainly a result of low oil and gas prices. So if you arent in a hurry, I would hold off 6-8 months and see how it is then. Its likely that there will be better deals out there at that time, IMO.

[grantgeneral78]

right now is a great time to buy with all the incentves from the government, plus I dont see our market taking a hit. So I think your safe.

[NikonNurse]

I know a house with a big yard for sale...Check out Chapel Creek listings..there is a a house on 14,000+ size lot under 200,000. House is under 4 years old.

[Karried]

Check out Zillow.com

First things first... get pre-approved for a loan .. if you think you'll have any issues with your credit score, try to get that resolved before you try to qualify.

Better score equals better interest rate.

Pay down debt and save up as much as you can now for your down payment. Consider closing costs too.

You can't really time the market. But, in my opinion, I think prices here will remain relatively stable but I still think we'll see some homes depreciate in some areas. It will take homes longer to sell (giving you as a buyer a huge bargaining advantage).

You have to think of a house as a home to live and raise a family in... and not always as an investment.

Weigh out the pros and cons of home ownership vs renting .....would the money you are spending on rent be close to what you would pay for a mortgage payment? If it is, then you might think seriously about buying.

In my opinion, the most important thing is Location.

Good schools are so important, (whether you have kids or not), safe neighborhood, proximity to amenities etc etc. will help you sell your home in the future regardless of what the market does.

[Karried]

Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops

[Boston Guy]

If you are looking for a "new" home, this is a great time to buy. I was just layed off as the Director of Sales for a medium sized home builder in OKC and despite what you read, most new home builders are struggling. Given the federal purchase incentives, the low mortgage rates and the new home inventory out there, builders are making some really great deals! Go with pre-approval or cash and no contingecies and you can write your own deal.

[USG '60]

Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops

Excellent article. I recommend it to all prospective home buyers.

[mecarr]

Thanks for all the advice!

[soonerguru]

Karried,

That article is wicked. I too worry that the recovery will be short lived unless we let housing costs fall to a level that is relational with incomes. Falsely creating a floor -- which I don't believe they can honestly do -- will only prolong the problem. One thing I disagree with in the commentary though is that helping some, not all, homeowners -- responsible or not -- is better than the alternative. Remember, though of us who are responsible and borrowed what we could afford and pay our bills are also hurt with massive foreclosures, because it depresses values for everyone.

[soonerguru]

And if I sound schizo it's because I think there's a middle path: try to help avoid massive foreclosures, while letting some happen and prices, particularly on the coasts, fall to levels more in line with reality.

[Karried]

soonerguru, I agree with you ... we can't let these homes continue to foreclose because you are so right... it does drag down the values for all of us .. comps don't lie.

But yeah, it pisses me off to no end..

We have been responsible and have paid our bills.. I've never had a late mortgage payment in 20 + years.. then again, I've never lived through this type of economy either.

I blame Greenspan & speculators who were greedy, greedy, greedy. Flip that house! Yeah right.

But, it is what it is now.. just have to deal with it.

[BDP]

I also think one thing that needs to change is the cultural perception that everyone should own a home or that it is a fundamental financial goal. Not that it applies to you specifically, mecarr, but not everyone needs to or even should own a home. Even people with very good incomes can sometimes make more of their financial and personal resources by renting.

I think the problem also gets compounded when our public financial resources are guided by this idea that owning should be accessible to everyone.

That being said, a new home may be the way to go if you wait for the bottom. While the historic homes have by far outpaced new home appreciation (ten fold in some cases), it's possible that they could be affected by downward pressure more than others that didn't appreciate as much. However, if you have a longer horizon, you may look at historic as they will probably continue to outperform new housing as an investment, given an overall market recovery, due to the fact that the inventory isn't very big and doesn't grow with demand.

All that being said, the value of your home doesn't mean much beyond taxes (and increases are capped) unless you are selling it.

[OKCMallen]

I also think one thing that needs to change is the cultural perception that everyone should own a home or that it is a fundamental financial goal. Not that it applies to you specifically, mecarr, but not everyone needs to or even should own a home.

I agree. Kind of like going to college- not everyone should or needs to go to college and complete their degree. I think it's a great GOAL, but it's not for everyone, and we'd be in trouble as a country if everyone had a degree and expected a "degree job."

[Karried]

ha,ha.. I'm joking when I say this.. but I'll bet you BDP owns a home and I know OKCMallen goes to college... lol

It's always easy to think this way when you're on the upside of this 'rule'.

[MikeOKC]

Here's another new article looking at the buy/rent decision. While I don't personally agree with all that is written in the article, it's certainly worth the read.
The last point is one to really think long and hard about. It's about neighborhoods and how we can't predict their viability regarding crime, demographics, etc. There are beautiful suburbs in Florida that now look like the inner cities. Horrible, and it all happened so fast. So much uncertainty.

5 Reasons Renting Still Beats Buying

[PennyQuilts]

I've lost $240,000 in assessed value in the past three years on my house because of the housing bubble. If I sold, today, for what it is worth, I would still make a profit because I bought in 2003. You simply can't prop up - nor should you - houses that were sold at inflated prices.

Most of the areas that have had the horrible housing slumps came in California, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Florida. Setting aside Michigan, many of those houses were second homes bought as investments. The buyers who bought at inflated prices are going to take a hit but the vast majority of people who have homes in the those areas are losing profit - not value. And if they aren't selling, anyway, it won't bother them much, at all. Counties who count on real estate tax are taking a hit but it is what it is. There are better ways to deal with that than prop up an inflated market that will not sustain over time, regardless.

BTW - we bought a house in OKC last year that was owned by a Californian who bought it for a ridiculous price. I don't know what he was thinking other than that he was applying California prices to the Oklahoma market. He got in over his head and sold it off on a short sell (to us) - for roughly what it was worth. No way should that guy have been bailed out and even if the house had been foreclosed on (it was going that way), it would not have harmed the neighborhood home values. For many people who have lived in neighborhoods and watched new neighbors pay ridiculous prices for the house next door, the fact that the neighbor loses money is sad but doesn't really harm their own "real" home value.

[RealtorJoe]

Interest rates are really low now which is great for buying, and you have plenty of time. I don't see our prices going up much if any over the next year or so. I believe there is a lot higher chance of our housing going down in cost than up over the next year, but it should be a relatively small amount either way.

[veritas]

Excellent article. I recommend it to all prospective home buyers.

It has a few points but also contains misleading some misleading information. Point 3 has a tenuous link at best to the way interest rates link to the housing market and an opportune time to buy. Paying cash for things is a desirable strategy sometimes but leveraging other people's money at a good interest rate to build personal wealth and equity can have a significant multiplier on the amount of wealth one can build over a given period of time vs. straight cash.

Point 1 is a good point where valid. However, the OKC market has a 40 historical y/y home value increase in the 4%-5% range. The peak of the "bubble" in OKC saw home values increase about 6.2%-6.5% (depending on the data used) so prices never really saw the upward pressure that other areas of the country did.

Point 2 is possibly applicable to the coasts but really doesn't apply to the OKC market. Homes provide a source for equity building, a hedge against inflation, a source of revenue in terms of tax deduction on interest, etc.

Point 6: pure facepalm. UGH!!! Although I will line up with anyone to throw rocks at people who don't manage money well, the problem with the current credit crisis is what's known as systemic risk. The Reserve/Treasury has to bail out the banks/institutions because a credit freeze would lead to a complete contraction of the economy, a implosion of most U.S. financial institutions, and utter chaos. Irony of ironies is that former Secretary of the Treasury Paulson was/is a pure Regan trickle down economics guru and he was the one who pulled the trigger on October 14th of 2008 to quasi-nationalize the nations 9 largest banks. See The Skeptical Optimist for a more detailed look at the Fed, our current liquidity trap, and the like.

Point 8 is true in the sense that affordable housing is desirable. However, the author must have never heard of the "echo boomer" generation that is currently coming into the work force (roughly 15-30) with population numbers even higher than the baby boomer generation.

Point 9: I agree, speculators suck.

Point 13: MLS reports for the OKC area for houses under $250,000.00 are well within historical averages as far as supply goes.

/I digress
//slashy, slashy

[stratosphere]

I have sort of an odd question for the group here, two or three years ago when i bought my house i was looking at some homes and talking to a homebuilder (McCaleb?). I showed some interest in his house but i had only been in mine a short time, and he told me something about they could buy my house if i would buy theirs. It sounds almost like trading in a used car for a new one, the builder buys your old house when you buy their new one. Im sure they wouldn't pay the most money, of course with things the way they are now it might be one way to get your house sold if you wanted to buy a new one.

Has anyone heard of anything like this?

[Boston Guy]

Many builders are doing this in today's market... it help's new home builders move inventory and help's new home buyers avoid the long process of listing and potentially sitting on a their home for an extended period of time. Some builders are looking to "flip" the traded home quickly, others are looking to add it to a portfolio of rental property they own.

As for the financial transaction, most builders have a some cushion in the price of their new home and will take that amount and apply it to the trade. With the builder I recently worked with, we where able to provide a few of our customers full asking price for their home and they in turn paid us full asking price for our new home. There is no doubt that if you can sell your existing house quickly, you are better off by taking your net proceeds and negotiating either a better price with a builder or negotiating a package of upgrades. However, if you are looking for a quicker, stress-free transaction, a trade may work well for you.

[stratosphere]

Thank you for your response. While my house is a nice 60's ranch style home in an established area, all of the upgrades are quite the challenge and sometimes it would be nice to just have a new home. Of course it would have to be under the right circumstances, but it might be worth investigating further.

Cheers