Oil prices

[ou48A]

The oil markets / stocks haven’t crashed today as some had feared.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/doha-c...131108606.html

Doha failed to deliver anything to end the global oil glut. Yet, Kuwait has managed that by itself in just a few days.

A labor strike that began Sunday has slashed the Persian Gulf nation’s output by 60 percent, shuttering 1.7 million barrels a day -- slightly more than the surplus sloshing around world markets in the first half of the year

[Anonymous.]

Provided a nice buy opportunity @ open today!

[mimino]

Provided a nice buy opportunity @ open today!

In a lot of names, I may add. Glad I've held ETE this far.

[gopokes88]

Seventy Seven Energy Inc. Enters into Restructuring Support Agreement - Yahoo Finance

Couldn't find a 77 energy thread. Anyway they're going into prepackaged chapter 11. Debt for equity exchange that will wipe out a billion of their balance sheet.

[OkieNate]

Seems like we really need Brent to break ~$42.50 … otherwise it's probably going to take a significant development to jump to $60 in the next 3 quarters.

Now that it seems to have broken $42.50 what is the next goal?

[DowntownMan]

Now that it seems to have broken $42.50 what is the next goal?

50?

[Teo9969]

Now that it seems to have broken $42.50 what is the next goal?

To be sure, I'm no industry buff...I'm just looking at the trends in the pricing and making guesses based on that.

But to answer your question, I'm speaking in terms of Brent, which broke $42.50 on 4/11. The next small goal for Brent seems to be ~$47. It's currently at $45.65, or ~3% off. Keep in mind that oil finished it's big fall in Jan. 2015 @ a shade over $46.70. Brent spent a lot of time in 2015 hanging out between $47 and $52, so the goal is to at least get there to start and hopefully break out of that area after a while.

I wrote these goals in March, and I see no reason to go away from them:

It looked to me like Brent touched resistance rather than broke it. Resistance was like $42.47, and that was the high that it touched intraday but obviously closed lower. Gonna have to break that first, then the levels of resistance seem to be: ~$50, then ~$53, then ~$63, and finally $67.58 (close) or $69.58 (intraday) which was the high in 2015. If we want to get to that $70/$80 sweet spot for 2017, my personal hope is that we break those resistance points by mid-April ($42.47) > by June ($50) > before Football ($53) > by year end ($63) > by March 2017 ($70).

[gopokes88]

API reporting a 5.1 million barrel draw. Market was expecting 2.0-2.5 million. Instantly pushed oil to $49.27. With Memorial Day next weekend and another big draw coming (I think last year it was 7million+ more expected to travel this year), this time next week we'll be over $50.

[Laramie]

Not all that excited about seeing oil prices continue to climb; however, if it will save jobs that is a good thing.

[mimino]

Not all that excited about seeing oil prices continue to climb; however, if it will save jobs that is a good thing.

Premium 100% is already pushing $2.6... Can't wait for $55 oil and $3 gas lol What's it gonna be at $80, $100? F'ing refiners.

[chuck5815]

Not all that excited about seeing oil prices continue to climb; however, if it will save jobs that is a good thing.

agree although prices in the $20-30s simply aren't sustainable over the long term. there's not very many fields in the world where $30/bbl is profitable.

[Rixon75]

[gopokes88]

So we're at $51.20. What we all thought would happen in '15 is finally happening. Production is falling and demand is growing. Summer driving season is putting a dent into the stocks at Cushing. Some rigs will start to come online in the permenian, stack and scoop. Should be stable from here, SA says they aren't going to flood the market, Iran doesn't have much further to go, Nigeria and Libya supply is way down, India and China gasoline demand is exploding. We could hit $60 by August.

Also natural gas has exploded from the contract close on May 27th of $1.93 to $2.44 today. The Jan '17 contract is at $3.23. That is great news for OK as most wells have a lot of NG.

Not talking a boom or anything but the oil business will start to grow again albeit slowly.

[PhiAlpha]

So we're at $51.20. What we all thought would happen in '15 is finally happening. Production is falling and demand is growing. Summer driving season is putting a dent into the stocks at Cushing. Some rigs will start to come online in the permenian, stack and scoop. Should be stable from here, SA says they aren't going to flood the market, Iran doesn't have much further to go, Nigeria and Libya supply is way down, India and China gasoline demand is exploding. We could hit $60 by August.

Also natural gas has exploded from the contract close on May 27th of $1.93 to $2.44 today. The Jan '17 contract is at $3.23. That is great news for OK as most wells have a lot of NG.

Not talking a boom or anything but the oil business will start to grow again albeit slowly.

I think at this point, stability is what should all be hoping for. Stability will allow for better planning and should give more confidence to the M&A market. There are a ton of small companies out there looking for producing property deals right now through non-core and distressed asset sales. Some of these are legacy companies with low debt and others are startups with massive loads of private equity funding behind them (more of these companies are forming every month). A lot of industry insiders thought all the action was going to be last year after prices came back a bit at the end of Q1, but the nose dive into the $30s stopped a lot of it. Stability in the market should make some of these deals finally start to pop which will be good for everyone. Q3 & Q4 of this year should be really exciting on that front (assuming prices don't nosedive again).

[Bellaboo]

We got another drilling order in May from Devon. I've also noticed they have been improving the county roads lately in the oil field where our wells are. Hopefully the drilling slump has turned the corner.

[gopokes88]

Hamm is certainly bullish. Thinks $72 by the end of the year.

[Teo9969]

Pretty major support statement today. 6 straight trading days with downward pressure and then a strong statement back to the good side.

Looks like $49-$51 (Brent) for the next 3-6 weeks. Hopefully in July we can break that $53 mark. I think if we do that, we're at least out of the $40 long-term oil woods that would eventually cripple even some of our stronger companies.

The volume since the drop in Dec. '14 has been nothing short of incredible...especially most recently (see blue line at bottom of image):

[mimino]

Pretty major support statement today. 6 straight trading days with downward pressure and then a strong statement back to the good side.

Looks like $49-$51 (Brent) for the next 3-6 weeks. Hopefully in July we can break that $53 mark. I think if we do that, we're at least out of the $40 long-term oil woods that would eventually cripple even some of our stronger companies.

The volume since the drop in Dec. '14 has been nothing short of incredible...especially most recently (see blue line at bottom of image):

Yeah, this year's volume on the bounce was pretty intense. This current upper lacks the oomph, imho. Might be going sideways for a bit, at least until EIA's data is released next week. It's getting tiresome to watch this weekly stuff. I'm no day trader, tho lol

[adaniel]

Keep a look out for the Brexit vote in the UK tomorrow. Hoping that the Brits do the right thing and vote to remain in the EU but if not expect oil prices, and equities in general, to crater.

[gopokes88]

Keep a look out for the Brexit vote in the UK tomorrow. Hoping that the Brits do the right thing and vote to remain in the EU but if not expect oil prices, and equities in general, to crater.

It's actually Thursday.

They need to leave. EU is turning into a facist undemocratic mega government.

Commodities will crater for a week and then everyone will realize brexit doesn't actually take effect for at least 2 years while they neogiate their way out.

[AP]

I think the general consensus among economists, that I've seen anyway, is that it would cause major economic disruptions worldwide if they leave. I think I'll side with people who do this for a living.

[adaniel]

^
Yep, the UK would close itself off from its biggest market. There is no plan from the "Leave" side on a path forward on had to address trade, tariffs, etc. and most economists agree it would almost certainly thrust itself into a recession. And this could open the door for a lot of other separatist movements around the globe.

All this is anti-trade sentiments and some rather ugly nativism disguising itself as feel-good nationalism. This revealed itself with the tragic killing of a pro-EU MP; that event alone has deflated the chance of a "Leave" vote. But it still bears watching.

[Rover]

People love nationalistic isolationism until they realize they won't be able to sell their goods and services to anyone but themselves. The UK is no longer the world power it was, but their people still like to live in the past. Their influence is already diminished.

[gopokes88]

^
Yep, the UK would close itself off from its biggest market. There is no plan from the "Leave" side on a path forward on had to address trade, tariffs, etc. and most economists agree it would almost certainly thrust itself into a recession. And this could open the door for a lot of other separatist movements around the globe.

All this is anti-trade sentiments and some rather ugly nativism disguising itself as feel-good nationalism. This revealed itself with the tragic killing of a pro-EU MP; that event alone has deflated the chance of a "Leave" vote. But it still bears watching.

No it's the fact 60% of their laws are made by an unelected government in Brussels. EU has open their borders so immigrants from the poorer parts of the EU flood in and drain their resources that their citizens pay for.

Sure there is gonna be some pain and suffering economically at least temporarily, but it will get better in the long term. The UK imports far more than it exports, and the UK economy is massive. It'll hurt the EU too.

England has to decide do they actually want to live in a democracy again, or under an unelected shadow government? The EU is absolutely abysmal.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...--to-take-bac/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2...t-me-im-a-his/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2...f-opportunity/

[Jersey Boss]

No it's the fact 60% of their laws are made by an unelected government in Brussels.England has to decide do they actually want to live in a democracy again, or under an unelected shadow government?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-36429482

When there is talk about unelected bureaucrats making decisions at the EU, it is usually the European Commission that people have in mind.
The Commission plays a vital role in the EU. It is the body which proposes new legislation, draws up the EU's annual budget and manages and supervises EU funding. The Commission consists of 28 members, one from each member state.

Its president is nominated by the national leaders and then elected by the European Parliament by majority vote. Based on member states' suggestions, the Commission's president selects 27 other members of the Commission for a five-year period, each with a specific policy portfolio.

The European Parliament must approve the Commission as a whole but does not vote on individual commissioners. More importantly, any new legislation proposed by the Commission still has to be agreed by the member states and passed by the European Parliament, which is directly elected by EU voters. The statement of unelected bureaucrats making decisions in the EU is therefore somewhat misleading.

As an institution, the European Commission relies on the work of about 33,000 officials, staff, and special advisers. The UK, by contrast, has more than 400,000 civil servants, according to 2015 figures from the Office for National Statistics.

The British government states that "the civil service helps the government of the day develop and implement its policies". In this sense, the work of British civil servants is comparable to that of the staff of the European Commission