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I definitely think that's becoming some conventional wisdom. I heard some storms out of Colorado that were kinda forcing some aspects of this event faded unexpectedly overnight and that may be one...

The storms are moving NE, not NW, but even so, a strong right turn would be a problem. Haven't seen that in these storms much today, so far.

Where is the dry line right now? It looks like it is still in the TX panhandle but I wanted to confirm

It means we are far from out of the woods storm/tornado wise. Atmosphere still very favorable. Lots of instability and favorable upper wind profiles.

I know Payne takes some criticism, but I think today he has been really balanced. I think he's done a worthy job of tempering the urge to go extreme and still relaying storms with a legit threat....

I've had Payne on in the background and he's really been quite measured so far.

Interesting to note it does *not* include OK or Cleveland counties, at least not for now.

So are we getting a better idea of timeline for greater OKC?

That area you describe sure seems to mimic the region I saw on on of the model runs this morning.
The dynamics of this situation are really interesting and make nailing things down tougher

After looking at those hodographs and all the language SPC has used in the prior statements, I can't say I'm surprised.

I am curious why the storms in west OK have not really been able to...

Looks like first initiation occurring NE of Lubbock moving NE at a pretty good clip.

First MD of the day out, and a severe storm watch is likely to be issued within the hour for western OK

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0537.html

So we're looking at a possible upgrade to a PDS watch it would seem at some point today. Ugh.

What concerns me is I'm looking at radar for any signs of morning initiation anywhere and I'm not seeing it. Heck I'm even looking for some NWS MD products for "first round" initiation and there are...

So we are bracing for two big rounas of storms in the OKC area, one in the morning/midday, then another later depending how how much the first round stabilizes the atmosphere? Are we looking at,...

Okay, sorry I misunderstood the question. Hope it didn't sound derogatory, didn't mean to. I'm a computer guy who kinda follows weather so the models and such kinda pique my interest but I realize...

The acronyms are just names for the different mathematical models, each weighting various factors differently. I'm no expert at reading these models, but the NAM seems to show one narrow line coming...

I'm all for getting needed rain, but never going to feel bad when a bad storm forecast goes south. I'll take a calm storm season any year.

So if I am reading this correctly the area of concern is essentially along and east of I-35 but *especially* focusing in NE Oklahoma with this late morning dynamic into the early evening.

Unless I am completely misreading it, which is entirely possible, it looks to me like the NAM has backed *way* off Saturday storm potential and moved more into late-night/early Sunday. Will be...

Appropriate, because Morgan is kinda pathetic anyway

Well, in all honesty, I hope it isn't "big." Would love another "bust" forecast b/c big storms often cause a lot of havoc...we shall see.

I thought he was recovering from injuries sustained from a fall in his garage? At least at one point he was. And I'd also heard other reasons for England being given an exit, but I guess those aren't...

SPC has kept the 30% risk in western OK for tomorrow (Thursday), keeping central OK slight into Friday. They have also modified the Saturday forecast to include a 30% severe risk region for...

So, chances are:
Tomorrow AM
Friday AM
Saturday PM

Close at all?