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By SPC guidelines, *any* watch in a high risk area is by default a PDS watch. Also, we're a couple of days after the event with a lot of data to look at and meteorologists and weather weenies are...

We had a PDS tornado watch issued at 2pm local and the first storms firing by 3pm. If you wait for the storms to form before sending people home, you end up with a lot of people on the roads when the...

LLJ is ramping up : https://twitter.com/StormHQwx/status/1787628464893300801

Okeene cell is on the ground

Lots of new cells firing in SW OK that could grow and impact the metro in an hour or...

And then the main show will be the cells that form once the LLJ kicks in and the outflow from these provide enough mixing to kick stuff off

With a high-end parameter space like this, it really is a matter of when and where, not if. This just seems strange because the atmosphere is so primed today.

"Highly credible" is stretching it, dude is trying to upsell his premium products. You can get similar results from CAMS' helicity tracks

It's almost 80 degrees with a dewpoint of almost 70. Winds are ripping, sheer is high, CAPE is high. The metro area is and will continue to be a high-end parameter space for the next 10-12 hours....

Oh man, that would be a huge get

Playing a political song is absolutely a political statement. I think part of the issue here is that people take the word "political" to mean "bad," which it isn't. Patriotism is inherently a...

NWS Norman issued a pre-emptive EMS activation. Never seen that before:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=LAEOUN&e=202405061658

PDS Tornado watch coming this afternoon https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1787524998804164785

00z HRRR run looks dangerous between Stillwater and Wichita, and then fires discrete cells in C OK around midnight tomorrow. Could see the SPC going high risk by morning.

To (very, very reluctantly) give Mike some credit, nocturnal long-track, violent tornadoes are indeed "over the top dangerous."

SPC folks are doing a good job of walking the line of expressing...

HRRR also missed on 4/27 iirc by not firing much in OK, yet we ended up with the nocturnal outbreak.

Yeah the threat here in Oklahoma is more conditional. *If* storms can break the cap then they will be in some very high end parameter space and can do some really nasty things. Also, the window of...

When these storms plant a tornado though they can tend to move more due east, which would be trouble

This Hinton/Lookeba storm could pose some trouble for folks in the NW metro

https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1784324585237991792

The lack of action right now isn't great as it means the atmosphere is able to recharge. Probably between 3-8pm, which should be the main round

Some very strong wording in this outlook. I could see them going to a high risk tomorrow if the morning round of storms don’t kill the atmosphere
...

Early convection comes through but doesn't erode the atmosphere enough to prevent a monster supercell from traveling up I-44 from Chickasha through the metro at 7pm. Just one run of one CAM but a...

Great writeup, thank you. Sounds like the ceiling for Saturday is high but super conditional on early-day convection holding off. Or at least that seems to be the assessment of NWS Norman:

18793...

I'd love to see an AHL team here. Hockey is a great sport to watch live. In one of my old haunts they had a 17-18 year old team that was always a great night to go watch, if only for a bunch of...

Sounds like any storms we get here in the metro will come after dark/overnight https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1779569231434318236

Yeah, there's clearly enough signals that Monday will be a weather-aware day but we don't need to go Full Morgan until we get closer

My heart breaks for her. What will her poor family of a measly net worth of $25 billion do?!?!?!