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Storms are now weakening more rapidly and the hail threat appears to be over.

Storms appear to be weakening but still a nonzero threat of marginally severe hail; highest from Tuttle up into Mustang and Yukon at the moment.

Complex of elevated storms is looking to make a run towards at least the west Metro over the next hour or two. Marginally severe hail should be the main threat.

Monday looks like a very volatile environment but I suspect that much of the convection will end up occurring north of the KS/OK border. Certainly still worth keeping an eye on, especially because I...

What is currently a weird spur that serves next to no purpose will make a lot more sense and presumably collect a lot more traffic once they finally extend it down to I-35 between Noble and Purcell....

This is exactly how I felt a few days ago when I realized there’s now a Fuzzy’s where the Freddy’s at May & NW 73rd used to be.

Garden City is much closer to the intersection of the surface low, dryline, and warm front which will likely provide enough forcing for at least isolated convection up there. As far as OKC is...

I am not too surprised by the Northern OK storms, but whew did most of the short-range models whiff on the SW Oklahoma event. And even the few that did hit never suggested that the ongoing localized...

Likely strong/violent tornado in rural Tipton County at the moment. Crazy evolution on this one.

Today will be fine, no rain and skies will gradually clear throughout the day.

I would say the Moderate Risk will easily end up verifying, really bad situation unfolding across southern/eastern Oklahoma right now.

April is becoming fairly notorious for synoptically obvious events that nonetheless manage to bust due to subtle issues (I agree with C_M_25 that lack of forcing is likely the main issue today). Not...

Trying to predict exactly how today's event will unfold is going to be incredibly challenging, but it's safe to say that overnight trends have been alarming and seem to suggest a higher-end event is...

SPC has upgraded the entire Metro to a Moderate Risk for both tornadoes and hail.

Going to be out and about taking photos tomorrow so not sure how much more I’m going to post on this event, but one final thing I’ll say is that we might be trending towards an outcome in which the...

I still think we’re going to get a good amount of rain either way tomorrow, so if we could manage to thread the needle with regards to avoiding a high-end severe weather event, that would be great.
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Tomorrow is still a very complicated setup, but here are my thoughts at the moment.

1) A complex of elevated thunderstorms will develop in Northwest Texas around 6 a.m. or so. Between 10:00 a.m....

Dryline is about to move through the Metro which should end our severe threat for the day, although I would say that supercells could form as far west as US-177.

SPC has stayed with an Enhanced...

We certainly aren’t out of the woods, but convective trends and recent model runs do lead me to believe that the bullseye for tonight’s severe weather threat has shifted somewhat south of the Metro....

I tend to think that all hazards will be in play tonight given the strength of most model solutions and the fact that there doesn’t appear to be any cap inhibiting surface-based convection on the...

Sometimes with these complex multi-day convective setups, I like to make a table comparing the output of the different convection-allowing models. I am sharing that table here. Please note that this...

First look at the convection-allowing models suggests that there will be a lot of elevated convection on Saturday Morning.

Storm threat should be over until sunset. There may be another round overnight, but areas north and east of OKC will likely be favored. If we are impacted, main threat will once again be marginally...

Would also note that the SPC issued a relatively rare Day 3 outlook upgrade about an hour ago (from Slight to Enhanced) but that the area they upgraded is well to the west of the Metro, which goes...

As of right now, I would say:

7 a.m. Wednesday - 1 p.m. Wednesday
10 p.m. Wednesday - 4 a.m. Thursday (low confidence)
10 p.m. Thursday - 7 a.m. Friday
4 p.m. Saturday - 1 a.m. Sunday

With...