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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
1159 pm cdt thu apr 30 2009
the national weather service in norman has issued a
* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Northeastern canadian county in central oklahoma...
Northern oklahoma county in central oklahoma...
* until 1245 am cdt
* at 1158 pm cdt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm 10 miles northwest of piedmont...and another
10 miles north of piedmont... Moving southeast at 20 mph.
Hazards in the warning include...
Hail up to the size of quarters...
Wind gusts to 60 mph...
* locations in the warning include arcadia...edmond...jones...nichols
hills...northern oklahoma city...piedmont...richland and the
village.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Here I am, washing clothes at mom's. I'll be getting my own washer/dryer next week.
That storm does not look right to me, especially the lightnings. I haven't seen any lines, just flashes. These are numerous frequent lightnings in a very short flash. It felt evil.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
This is interesting. Gary and Jed on News 9 is the only ones keep talking about this storm nonstop.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Like they pointed out on TV9, outflow boundary on the right side of the storm pretty much will eliminate any tornado threat. This is a hail storm through and through.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 130 AM CDT
* AT 1244 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF YUKON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BETHANY...MUSTANG...RICHLAND...
WESTERN OKLAHOMA CITY AND YUKON.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0219_radar.gif
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1245 AM UNTIL 700 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA
CITY OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 218...
DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS IN CENTRAL OK ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...OTHER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS/VEERS AND IMPINGES ON
WEAK BOUNDARY...STRETCHING SEWD FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL
OK. MUCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
New Day 1 Outlook is out, the graphics are on page one...here is the text.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT FRI MAY 01 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN
PLNS EWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH AND OH/TN VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND
NERN STATES ON FRIDAY AS THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX REPOSITIONS SWD. A
SEPARATE BELT OF MODEST FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLNS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. EMBEDDED CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DISTURBANCES
WILL EXIST WITHIN THIS JET. NEXT MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW
OVER THE ERN PACIFIC BASIN...WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD...ARRIVING
INTO CA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IN THE LWR LEVELS...SYNOPTIC CDFNT TIED TO THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM
UPR WAVE WILL SETTLE SEWD...REACHING NEW ENGLAND...THE OH VLY...AND
SRN PLNS STATES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A MYRIAD OF PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY EXIST THROUGHOUT THE OH/TN/LWR MS VLYS AND
SRN PLNS. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO NWRN TX AND THE ERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU.
...SRN PLNS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
SEVERAL TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND ERN OK ALONG THE NOSE OF A VEERING LLJ.
STORMS MAY ALREADY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. AIR
MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL LIKELY HEAT SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY AND MAY BE COMPARATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE OWING TO STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG EXPECTED. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...WELL REMOVED FROM THE PRIMARY
TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...CORRIDORS OF STRONGER FLOW MAY
EVOLVE WITH ANY MCV THAT MAY DEVELOP...AND GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST
BUOYANCY...MULTICELL STORMS MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC DMGG WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.
HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN
AND EVENING. TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL LIKELY
STALL ACROSS SRN OK AND ADJOIN WITH A TRIPLE POINT OVER FAR SW
OK/WRN N TX. STRONG HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH MID-UPR 60S SFC DEW
POINTS AND 8-8.5 C/KM MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
EXTREME UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN OK/NRN TX WITH MLCAPES OF
3000-4000 J/KG. AS SBCINH WEAKENS...INGREDIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID TSTM INITIATION INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT AND POINTS EWD
ALONG/N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.
A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MATURING DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS
EXTREME SWRN OK AND WRN N TX THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ANY SUPERCELL
SPLITS WILL MOVE NWD...POSSIBLY INTO CNTRL OK DURING THE EVE WITH A
LARGE HAIL THREAT.
WNWLY H5 FLOW OF 30-35 KTS AND PERSISTENT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INFLOW DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH GROWING COLD POOLS MAY LEAD TO
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS /BOW ECHO/ THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN OK AND
N TX...WITH THE APEX FAVORING THE EVENTUAL RESTING PLACE OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PROBABLY INVOF THE RED RIVER FRIDAY EVENING.
DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. TAIL-END OF THE MCS MAY
CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD SEWD TOWARD I-20 AND MAINTAIN CYCLIC SUPERCELL
CHARACTER INTO LATE EVE WITH DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD
TORNADOES.
ONCE THE FINAL LATITUDINAL PLACEMENTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES ARE BETTER KNOWN...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY NEED AN
UPGRADE TO A MDT RISK.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Venture, isn't the outflow a bit north of the storm? The further south this storm goes, the greatest chance for an isolated tornado?
Rick is finally talking nonstop. Mike isn't concern that much.
Rick seem to be watching that hook closely.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
KOCO been having CC the whole time and News 9 just now got the CC up.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
This storm is basically gone. RIP
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
You are thinking of the outflow boundary from the storm complexes yesterday. What I was referring to was the area of outflow/gust front that developed on the storm where the "hook" was located.
With that, I'm out for the night.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Good Morning.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0220_radar.gif
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 220
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL 200
PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING COMPLEXES OF STG-SVR TSTMS -- INITIALLY
OVER N-CENTRAL AND NERN OK -- MAY BECOME STILL BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THEY MOVE INTO GRADUALLY WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...AND
WEAKENING MLCINH. BOTH FORWARD AND REAR PROPAGATIONAL MOTION
COMPONENTS APPEAR LIKELY IN THIS SITUATION...LEADING TO THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND THAT WILL EXPAND SWD/SEWD WITH TIME.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Venture, I'm having about 20 teens over at 7pm tonight for my son's birthday. Do you think we will have any severe weather ie Tornadoes at that time? My shelter doesn't hold that many.
Your best guess of the weather around then?
What are the chances of rain then? I'd love to throw then all in the backyard, lol but my luck it will pour from 7-12...
Edmond/NW OKC area.
Thanks!
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
> I'm having about 20 teens over at 7pm tonight
hang the storms. Pile up the pizza, soda, maybe some salad on a central table, and then clear out and let the ferret keep an eye on them.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kevinpate
hang the storms. Pile up the pizza, soda, maybe some salad on a central table, and then clear out and let the ferret keep an eye on them.
:congrats:
That's good stuff!
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Karried
Venture, I'm having about 20 teens over at 7pm tonight for my son's birthday. Do you think we will have any severe weather ie Tornadoes at that time? My shelter doesn't hold that many.
Your best guess of the weather around then?
What are the chances of rain then? I'd love to throw then all in the backyard, lol but my luck it will pour from 7-12...
Edmond/NW OKC area.
Thanks!
There might be some storms in your area within the next several hours. I think by 7pm, it should all pass down to the south as the cold front continue to move. The cold front is either approaching your area or going thru.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Karried
Venture, I'm having about 20 teens over at 7pm tonight for my son's birthday. Do you think we will have any severe weather ie Tornadoes at that time? My shelter doesn't hold that many.
There may still be some rain around, but this really isn't a tornado setup that much up here, that seems to be more into SW Oklahoma right now.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
hang the storms. Pile up the pizza, soda, maybe some salad on a central table, and then clear out and let the ferret keep an eye on them.
lol... you must be a fly on my wall! I'm clearing out (but not too far - the next room, I like my house!)
And they all love Teddy... I just don't want a big goofy footprint on him anytime soon!
Okay, sigh of relief... I'm hoping and praying we can have a bonfire in the backyard.. wouldn't that be fun for teens !?
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Karried
lol... you must be a fly on my wall! I'm clearing out (but not too far - the next room, I like my house!)
And they all love Teddy... I just don't want a big goofy footprint on him anytime soon!
Okay, sigh of relief... I'm hoping and praying we can have a bonfire in the backyard.. wouldn't that be fun for teens !?
If you live in the city you may need to get a permit for a bonfire.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Good point, maybe I should have specified, I'm thinking backyard Firepit size... oh and our 'backyard' is pretty good size and backs to the greenbelt / creek.. we have no neighbors behind us. Do you think that would be okay without a permit?
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Charlie40
If you live in the city you may need to get a permit for a bonfire.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Karried
Good point, maybe I should have specified, I'm thinking backyard Firepit size...
Karried I'd have a backup plan ready...it could be pretty wet tonight.
OT........This brings up a question I've wondered about before. We have a chiminea and a campfire firepit (surrounded by a gravel seating area and stream) in our yard. Do firepits need a permit?
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Karrie, firepits is legal. It's just like an outdoor fireplace. Just as long you're cautious about the surrounding areas and tell the kids not to get too close to the firepit. Keep it mind, the metal/steel will remain hot for several hours after the fire is put out.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Karried
Good point, maybe I should have specified, I'm thinking backyard Firepit size... oh and our 'backyard' is pretty good size and backs to the greenbelt / creek.. we have no neighbors behind us. Do you think that would be okay without a permit?
If you dont let it get too high and keep a water hose nearby for liability purposes you should be fine.
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Charlie40
If you dont let it get too high and keep a water hose nearby for liability purposes you should be fine.
I actually first read that as "If you don't get too high..."
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Re: Severe Weather Risk - Thu 4/30 & Fri 5/1
Quote:
Originally Posted by
venture79
I actually first read that as "If you don't get too high..."
LOL um no high and fire dont mix. Maybe they should do a smokey the bear ad about that.