Covid-19 Economic Impact

These are some of the things my brain is cycling through right now. Of course, all the below assumes we don't pull a rabbit out of our hat in the next 4 weeks and find a way to massively stem the tide of the virus:

Seniors are going to be hit unbelievably hard by this and many may just phone it in. I think Baby Boomers are going to be shocked at how bad this turns out for them, especially if they do not have kids to help them through this.

I'm not an economist, but I have not heard favorable forecasts for bonds in general even in a tanking stock market. They're doing better in this short run, but there's an upper limit to their value. So beyond the 401(k)s getting rocked right as many are planning on entering retirement, many pensions are also going to get hit pretty hard and many likely to become insolvent in all of this. These seniors will have little prospects of returning to the job market as unemployment is going to be over 8% for the foreseeable future and their skill set is mostly going to be obsolete anyway.

Compounding the issue here is that the only way we get out of this without capitalism collapsing is a "healthy" rate of inflation to get out of the governmental debt that the entire world's governments already incurred prior to this virus and that they are about to incur at rates we've not seen for many decades now.

Many homes are going to be lost to the bank not in these first 5 years but 15 years later when accessing their inflated equity is going to be one of the few ways for them to pay their way through retirement.

Of course, we have an upcoming generation that has a predilection toward socialism so we could well be looking at ending this way regardless.

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Originally Posted by OKC Guy

It won’t happen but what if:

We diverted the MAPS4 tax for 2 years put into a fund for 0% interest loans for small businesses in need. Then when we buy local we increase taxes which in turn helps local small business. I think we get $100m per year in that tax so maybe $75m in next year. We could use future anticipated tax now to immediately help. Lots of red tape like how this might hurt banks but hire a panel of pro’s to debate and decide worthiness. If we keep small business alive we are gonna get more taxes back in long run.

Pipe dream I know, just thinking out loud

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I don’t think you’re grasping the magnitude of what’s about to happen.

The city will ask us to divert it to simply cover day to day operations or lay off 50% of the police force.

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Originally Posted by chuck5815

That would definitely be a better way to spend the money than on most of the goofy pet projects that made the final list.

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Amen

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Originally Posted by gopokes88

"You can't overreact"

Sure feels like we overreacted

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Sen. Jim Inhofe, who thinks Global Warming is a hoax, doesn't think so with COVID-19:

"All you have to do is look at the numbers. It's almost doubling in one day. You know I'd be the first to say we're overreacting because that's kind of how I am, but we're not. By people not believing, by not taking precautions, they're making it more likely to spread."

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Originally Posted by Bunty

Sen. Jim Inhofe, who thinks Global Warming is a hoax, doesn't think so with COVID-19:

"All you have to do is look at the numbers. It's almost doubling in one day. You know I'd be the first to say we're overreacting because that's kind of how I am, but we're not. By people not believing, by not taking precautions, they're making it more likely to spread."

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Good data on how as we test more the rate keeps going down. It will end up less than annual flu

“Reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.”
Looking at the US fatality, the fatality rate is drastically declining as the number of cases increases, halving every four or five days. The fatality rate will eventually level off and plateau as the US case-mix becomes apparent.

4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)
1.90% March 16 (86 of 4,503)
1.76% March 17 (109 of 6,196)
1.66% March 18 (150 of 9,003)
1.51% March 19th (208 of 13,789)

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

The company I worked for laid a few people off. (Un)fortunately I was one of them. Kind of nervous after I processed one of them, and as far as I could tell I was next. Good luck out there, guys.

I’m sorry man

As a self-employed one-man band, I'm totally having to think out of the box going forward for the near future.

https://twitter.com/brentbeshore/sta...736138242?s=21

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Originally Posted by Thomas Vu

The company I worked for laid a few people off. (Un)fortunately I was one of them. Kind of nervous after I processed one of them, and as far as I could tell I was next. Good luck out there, guys.

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Sorry to hear! What field are you in and do you have any leads for work? Also, if not “in field” what kind of fields are you willing to explore? Maybe someone here knows someone.

Wonder if we could create a thread focused on those losing jobs and those hiring? This board has a very diverse set of posters with a wide reach and maybe if just 1 person can help someone in your position that would be great for our community.

Good luck!

^

http://www.okctalk.com/images/pete/coronasmallbiz1.jpg

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Originally Posted by OKC Guy

Sorry to hear! What field are you in and do you have any leads for work? Also, if not “in field” what kind of fields are you willing to explore? Maybe someone here knows someone.

Wonder if we could create a thread focused on those losing jobs and those hiring? This board has a very diverse set of posters with a wide reach and maybe if just 1 person can help someone in your position that would be great for our community.

Good luck!

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Unfortunately, nobody but amazon and wal mart are going to be hiring.

We’re focused on surviving this in one piece.

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Originally Posted by gopokes88

Unfortunately, nobody but amazon and wal mart are going to be hiring.

We’re focused on surviving this in one piece.

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Saw in today's newspaper that Petra Industries in Edmond is hiring: https://oklahoman.com/article/565817...205.1572105338

Wow 50 jobs to stem the bleed of 10,000.

Math doesn’t check out there.

And if this rumor I’m hearing about a shelter in place order coming soon. Yikes. You can’t grasp the forthcoming economic pain.

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Originally Posted by gopokes88

Wow 50 jobs to stem the bleed of 10,000.

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You said "nobody but amazon and wal mart are going to be hiring." That's not true.

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Originally Posted by gopokes88

Unfortunately, nobody but amazon and wal mart are going to be hiring.

We’re focused on surviving this in one piece.

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This is simply not true. Crest is hiring. Dominoes is hiring. Many places like grocery and take out delivery are hiring due to demand. Your post is fear mongering. There will be pain no question but doom and gloom is counterproductive when there are places hiring.

I'm in IT. I planned to take this opportunity to study cloud infrastructure while I'm getting unemployment. I was planning to do this anyway, but now I've traded 8 hours a day for a bit of security.

Some hope from the east:

China Southern has continued to increase capacity back to LAX from China. Up to 5x weekly to CAN (Guangzhou) and they are bringing the A380 back to LAX as well

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Originally Posted by catch22

Some hope from the east:

China Southern has continued to increase capacity back to LAX from China. Up to 5x weekly to CAN (Guangzhou) and they are bringing the A380 back to LAX as well

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At least until LAX has the same problems as NYC-area airports. :(

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/faa-h...b6f5b7c54546e8

The Federal Aviation Administration is temporarily halting flights to New York City-area airports because of coronavirus-related staffing issues at a regional air-traffic control center.

In an alert posted online, the agency advised air traffic controllers to “stop all departures” to Kennedy, LaGuardia, Newark and other airports in the region.

The directive also affects Philadelphia International Airport.

Well of course operational disruptions can and will continue to happen. However this shows an uptick in demand from China as well as increased confidence from their carriers. Hopefully that will translate here soon once we get to the other side of the demand trench.

Then there's this:

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-corona...wer&soc_trk=fb

I guess we'll know as time goes on with Italy...

Stillwater is having one of the biggest economic impacts outside the metros. Stillwater is shut down like OKC. So is OSU, which will only have online classes for the rest of the semester. OSU has told students living on campus housing that they must move out by April 6. They will go back home. Off campus students surely won't want to hang around, especially if their home towns aren't shut down. So the 2020 census count to reach at least 50,000 to gain metro status will quite likely be a bust. Then there is this: Stillwater pushes for census numbers, OSU students push back - https://www.ocolly.com/news/stillwat...8d6a99271.html

Students asked to leave dorms amid COVID-19 pandemic - https://www.ocolly.com/news/students...6e78c668e.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/o....co/Oqq7UZXMrd

The Fuzzys Tacos lm at right now could use 2-3 more employees.

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Originally Posted by gopokes88

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/o....co/Oqq7UZXMrd

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I don't subscribe to the NY Times, but here is a long but interesting free article that goes with a similar theme. It says schools should reopen and why: https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine...9-1b767def5894

EDIT: Oops, sorry, article no longer available. It says, "This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules."

Anyway, here is what the last two paragraphs of the article said:

"When this is all over, look for massive confirmation bias and pyloric celebration by elites. There will be vain cheering in the halls of power as Main Street sits in pieces. Expect no apology, that would be political suicide. Rather, expect to be given a Jedi mind trick of “I’m the government and I helped.”

The health of the State will be even stronger with more Americans dependent on welfare, another trillion stimulus filled with pork for powerful friends, and a bailout for companies that charged us $200 change fees for nearly a decade. Washington DC will be fine. New York will still have all of the money in the world. Our communities will be left with nothing but a shadow of the longest bull market in the history of our country."