Latest Population Estimates

The official 2010 census figures will be released later this year (tentatively set for December). Meanwhile it is interesting to not the latest estimates (as of July 1, 2009) just released. Below isa list of Metropolitan Statistical Areas of interest because thay are in a neighborng state or are about the same size as OKC. Each city is followed by the 2009 estimate and increase (or decrease) over the past year. Figures are rounded to nearest thousand.
Dallas 4,326,000, +100,000......Ft. Worth 2,121,000, +47,000......Kansas City 2,068,000, +21,500......Jacksonville 1.328,000, +12,000......Memphis 1,305,000, +6,000......Louisville 1,258,000, +9,000......Oklahoma City 1,227,000, +20,000......Hartford 1,196,000, +5,000......Birmingham 1,131,000 +8,000......Buffalo 1,124,000, -250......Tulsa 929,000,+13,000......Albuquerque 858,000, +11,000......Omaha 849,000, +10,000......Little Rock 685,000, +9,500......Wichita 613,000, +9,500
These figures are MSAs. The combinedmetropolitan statistical area for OKC (which includes Pott county) is 1,297,000, which means the total in the 2010 census should be comfortably over 1,300,000. For Tulsa the combined figure (which includes Washinton County) is 980,000; so the 2010 total should be just under 1,000,000

I like running numbers. 20,000 extra people estimated last year. That is 55 (rounded up from 54.7) new citizens everyday.

Yes, Oklahoma City's increase is really quite amazing compared to other cities in he list (except for those behemoths Dallas and Ft. Worth) The exact census bureau numbers are 1,207,519 for 2008 and 1,227,278 for 2009, making an increae of 19,759 for the year. Keep in mind that these figures are for the metro area and so include such municipalities as Norman, Edmond, Moore, and Midwest City.

Great that Oklahoma City metro area is growing faster than most other metros listed. Oklahoma has a chance of gaining two new metro areas as a result of the 2010 census with that being Garfield and Payne Counties.

Meanwhile, OKC has been growing much slower over the past decade than several other metropolitan areas of roughly similar size (2009 estimates):

Las Vegas, NV MSA: increase of 527,069 to 1,902,834
Austin, TX MSA: increase of 455,312 to 1,705,075
Charlotte, NC-SC MSA: increase of 415,076 to 1,745,524
Raleigh, NC MSA: increase of 328,756 to 1,125,827
Nashville, TN MSA: increase of 270,475 to 1,582,264
Indianapolis, IN MSA: increase of 218,554 to 1,743,658
Oklahoma City, OK MSA: increase of 131,857 to 1,227,278

State of Oklahoma: increase of 236,396 to 3,687,050

Which I think no one is surprised by. OKC hadn't hit it's stride until recently, and even that's questionable. I imagine she'll start growing at a decently fast rate soon.

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Originally Posted by semisimple

Meanwhile, OKC has been growing much slower over the past decade than several other metropolitan areas of roughly similar size (2009 estimates):

Las Vegas, NV MSA: increase of 527,069 to 1,902,834
Austin, TX MSA: increase of 455,312 to 1,705,075
Charlotte, NC-SC MSA: increase of 415,076 to 1,745,524
Raleigh, NC MSA: increase of 328,756 to 1,125,827
Nashville, TN MSA: increase of 270,475 to 1,582,264
Indianapolis, IN MSA: increase of 218,554 to 1,743,658
Oklahoma City, OK MSA: increase of 131,857 to 1,227,278

State of Oklahoma: increase of 236,396 to 3,687,050

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I wasn't aware that Indy had grown that fast but the rest could be considered "boom" towns. Vegas is one of the worst economies now so that number will be down. Austin, Charlotte, Raliegh and Nashville are all considered very hot markets.

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Originally Posted by redland

The official 2010 census figures will be released later this year (tentatively set for December). Meanwhile it is interesting to not the latest estimates (as of July 1, 2009) just released. Below isa list of Metropolitan Statistical Areas of interest because thay are in a neighborng state or are about the same size as OKC. Each city is followed by the 2009 estimate and increase (or decrease) over the past year. Figures are rounded to nearest thousand.
Dallas 4,326,000, +100,000......Ft. Worth 2,121,000, +47,000......Kansas City 2,068,000, +21,500......Jacksonville 1.328,000, +12,000......Memphis 1,305,000, +6,000......Louisville 1,258,000, +9,000......Oklahoma City 1,227,000, +20,000......Hartford 1,196,000, +5,000......Birmingham 1,131,000 +8,000......Buffalo 1,124,000, -250......Tulsa 929,000,+13,000......Albuquerque 858,000, +11,000......Omaha 849,000, +10,000......Little Rock 685,000, +9,500......Wichita 613,000, +9,500
These figures are MSAs. The combinedmetropolitan statistical area for OKC (which includes Pott county) is 1,297,000, which means the total in the 2010 census should be comfortably over 1,300,000. For Tulsa the combined figure (which includes Washinton County) is 980,000; so the 2010 total should be just under 1,000,000

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Do you have a link or source on the numbers? I couldn't find numbers that recent on a quick Google search. Thanks!

If it's true that our growth rate has increased to 20,000 per year... that's fantastic news. 200,000 people each decade equates to growth of about 18% which is way above the 10% growth we will finish out the decade with.

It's an upward trajectory.

Spartan, that is true IF it is 20K per year and not just a 1 or 2 year spike. Trying to keep Apples to Apples (which isn't easy) numbers for the City, (MSA) Metropolitan Statistical Areas and (CMSA) Combined Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Sometimes hard to tell if the number is MSA or CMSA if I have a number misplaced, please feel free to correct.

Also keep in mind (as others have posted) that other cities have experienced growth too. In the last Census, even though Oklahoma had experienced population growth, it wasn't as great as other states and we lost representation in Congress. Maybe we can get it back this time around.

OKC:
2008 est 551,789
2000 506,132

MSA
2009 est 1,227,000
2000 1,095,421

CMSA
2009 est 1,297,000
2000 ???

Greater Oklahoma City Economic Development - Population

"Greater OKC" (is this MSA?)
1970: 837,019
1980: 1,009,907 (+17,288/year)
1990: 1,105,994 (+9,608/year)
2000: 1,245,659 (+13,966/year)
2010: 1,368,207 (+12,254/year) est


Found this interesting info & chart (Oklahoma City Population - OklahomaCity.com)

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"In any given decade there Oklahoma City has not seen a decline in population, and actually often sees growth in the double (sometimes triple) digit percentiles."

Oklahoma City's Historical Population
Year: Population: % Change

1890: 4,151: --
1900: 10,037: 142%
1910: 64,205: 540%
1920: 91,295: 42%
1930: 185,389: 103%
1940: 204,424: 10%
1950: 243,504: 19%
1960: 321,599: 32%
1970: 368,164: 15%
1980: 404,014: 10%
1990: 438,922: 9%
2000: 506,132: 15%

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Not really sure what to make of those numbers. When spread out over a 10 year period I guess it could be the case but what about the Great Depression, Dust Bowl, Grapes of Wrath era? Suburban flight era? The Oil Bust era? etc.


Oklahoma City - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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The city's estimated population, as of 2008, was 551,789,[5]
with an estimated metro-area population of 1,206,142.[6]
In 2008, the Oklahoma City-Shawnee Combined Statistical Area had a population of 1,275,758 residents.[7]

[5] ^ Oklahoma City city, Oklahoma. U.S. Census Bureau
[6] ^ "Annual Estimates of the Population of Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008". http://www.census.gov/popest/metro/t...EST2008-01.csv.
[7] ^ "Annual Estimates of the Population of Combined Statistical Areas: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2008"

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Originally Posted by semisimple

Meanwhile, OKC has been growing much slower over the past decade than several other metropolitan areas of roughly similar size (2009 estimates):

Las Vegas, NV MSA: increase of 527,069 to 1,902,834
Austin, TX MSA: increase of 455,312 to 1,705,075
Charlotte, NC-SC MSA: increase of 415,076 to 1,745,524
Raleigh, NC MSA: increase of 328,756 to 1,125,827
Nashville, TN MSA: increase of 270,475 to 1,582,264
Indianapolis, IN MSA: increase of 218,554 to 1,743,658
Oklahoma City, OK MSA: increase of 131,857 to 1,227,278

State of Oklahoma: increase of 236,396 to 3,687,050

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Yes, these cherry-picked fast-growing cities all outpaced OKC. I don't think any of us thought OKC to be the fasted growing city in the naion. Meanwhile here are some cities, all larger than OKC or near the same size, and their change this decade (between April 1, 2000 and the July 1, 2009 estimate.

Oklahma City, increae of 132,000
Saint Louis, increae of 130,000
Pittsburgh, increase, of 82,000
Providence, increae of 16,000
Norfolk-Virginia Beach, increae of 98,000
Cleveland, decrease of 57,000
Memphis, increase of 100,000
Buffalo, decrease of 47,000
Louisville, increae of 97,000
Hartford, increae of 47,000
Birmingham, increae of 80,000
Dayton, increae of 13,000
Albany, increae of 32,000
Omaha, increase of 83,000

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Originally Posted by Larry OKC

Do you have a link or source on the numbers? I couldn't find numbers that recent on a quick Google search. Thanks!

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Population Estimates

Oops, the link in the preceding post takes you to 2007 data. Try this:
Population Estimates

Larry, the Chamber's "Greater OKC" includes Stillwater..dirty little secret.

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Originally Posted by Larry OKC

but what about the Great Depression, Dust Bowl, Grapes of Wrath era? Suburban flight era? The Oil Bust era? etc.
]

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Many rural Oklahomans that moved to the city during that time and actually increased the population.

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Originally Posted by Spartan

Larry, the Chamber's "Greater OKC" includes Stillwater..dirty little secret.

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Evidence/Proof? Otherwise, why would they use something other than the US Census SMSA which anyone can figure out if they wanted?

It will be interesting to see how these estimtes hold up to the actual count. If they are using the number of homes built over the last 10 years in any part of their calculations then these numbers will be way off.

Prior to housing bust here in Jax the news kept saying how Duval County was one of the fastest growing the country. Turns out that lots of homes were being built and sold but no one was ever moving into them. It was just flippers selling to each other. The census was using the number of homes built and multiplying by the average sized household to get their estimate.

I think Jax is going to be in for a big surprise when the 2010 count is released because according to the number shown above Jax gained 12,000 people last year but some how the school district lost several thousand students. Those two "facts" don't jive with each other.

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Originally Posted by Kerry

It will be interesting to see how these estimtes hold up to the actual count. If they are using the number of homes built over the last 10 years in any part of their calculations then these numbers will be way off.

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It's more accurate to go by new utility hook-ups made to those new homes.

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Originally Posted by Spartan

Larry, the Chamber's "Greater OKC" includes Stillwater..dirty little secret.

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Presumably, that also means Payne County, or 80,000 additional people.

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Originally Posted by Spartan

If it's true that our growth rate has increased to 20,000 per year... that's fantastic news. 200,000 people each decade equates to growth of about 18% which is way above the 10% growth we will finish out the decade with.

It's an upward trajectory.

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Even if we have NO further growth from 2009 to 2010, we would finish out this decade with a growth of about 12%, not 10%. Assuming another year comparable to what we've been seeing, let's say another 15,000, we would finish out the decade with a growth of about 13.4%, not 10%. That would end the decade with a population of 1,242,278.

IF we grow 20,000 per year for the coming decade, we would end that decade with 1,442,278. That would be a growth of about 16%, not 18%. Bottom line, a growth of 20,000 per year for the next decade would not be "way above" the growth OKC has experienced recently or in the past decade. More of a very moderate acceleration in keeping with what we have already seen.

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Originally Posted by Spartan

Larry, the Chamber's "Greater OKC" includes Stillwater..dirty little secret.

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Their website population for the Oklahoma City MSA coincides with the US Census bureau's. They do show a map that includes Payne County as part of the Greater OKC area but they don't include Payne County in the population tallies.

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Originally Posted by Kerry

It will be interesting to see how these estimtes hold up to the actual count. If they are using the number of homes built over the last 10 years in any part of their calculations then these numbers will be way off.

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The Census Bureau's estimates are indeed based off of housing stock numbers, which are updated annually based on building permit data, among other things. Below are the essential features in their model to estimate the population:

Population estimate = number of houses & other dwellings * number of people per household * occupancy rate of households in that area

So, they try to account for unoccupied houses by including that "occupancy rate" factor. However, from what I can tell, the Census Bureau is using Census 2000 occupancy rates in their calculation, and we can almost be certain that in bubble markets that the occupancy rate has plummeted from where it was in 2000. So if that is in fact the case then there may be a large discrepancy between these estimates and the official Census 2010 numbers for some cities.

For instance, the Metropolitan Council (Minneapolis-St. Paul) points this out in an outline of their methodology for their own population estimates. For Minneapolis-St. Paul they estimate a 3% drop in occupancy from 2000 to 2008. It may be much larger for metros like Jacksonville and especially Las Vegas.

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Originally Posted by Kerry

It will be interesting to see how these estimtes hold up to the actual count. If they are using the number of homes built over the last 10 years in any part of their calculations then these numbers will be way off.

Prior to housing bust here in Jax the news kept saying how Duval County was one of the fastest growing the country. Turns out that lots of homes were being built and sold but no one was ever moving into them. It was just flippers selling to each other. The census was using the number of homes built and multiplying by the average sized household to get their estimate.

I think Jax is going to be in for a big surprise when the 2010 count is released because according to the number shown above Jax gained 12,000 people last year but some how the school district lost several thousand students. Those two "facts" don't jive with each other.

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Oklahoma City has never experienced the kind of speculative housing boom that has been going on in Florida for the last few years so that isn't likely to be as much of a factor here.

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Originally Posted by semisimple

The Census Bureau's estimates are indeed based off of housing stock numbers, which are updated annually based on building permit data, among other things. Below are the essential features in their model to estimate the population:

Population estimate = number of houses & other dwellings * number of people per household * occupancy rate of households in that area

So, they try to account for unoccupied houses by including that "occupancy rate" factor. However, from what I can tell, the Census Bureau is using Census 2000 occupancy rates in their calculation, and we can almost be certain that in bubble markets that the occupancy rate has plummeted from where it was in 2000. So if that is in fact the case then there may be a large discrepancy between these estimates and the official Census 2010 numbers for some cities.

For instance, the Metropolitan Council (Minneapolis-St. Paul) points this out in an outline of their methodology for their own population estimates. For Minneapolis-St. Paul they estimate a 3% drop in occupancy from 2000 to 2008. It may be much larger for metros like Jacksonville and especially Las Vegas.

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Thanks semisimple. If that is the case then Jax is going to lose 200,000 people when the actual count is released. We have entire subdivisions where homes have been premitted and never built and subdivisions where actual homes never had any one move into them. The home next door to me sat vacant for 3 years but was sold 4 times by flippers (and Bunty, the utilities were always connected - I know this because the spinklers and motion activated coach lights came on).

Granted this probably isn't a big issue for place like OKC but I think it will be a big deal for a lot of other cities.