Sears or JCP who will die first?

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Originally Posted by gjl

Wiki says Sears Holdings is still the 10th largest retailer by annual revenues in the US and that Kmart is the third largest discount retailer in the world behind Walmart and Target.

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That's why I suspect Sears will endure merely by virtue of the strength of its owner. Kmart could let Sears languish for a long time, so long as they perceive the name has some sort of value and brings bodies through the door. JCPenney doesn't have that kind of luxury. The key will be how much longer things go before you start hearing them run low on cash, or start having trouble paying suppliers, or start soliciting new or restructured financing...but can't get it...and that's when they'll really be on the precipice and the bankruptcy hawks will really start circling.

I wonder how much JCPenney has tied up in all this rebuilding and remodeling that the Apple guy started up that has since been heralded a disaster in the midst of their pitiful sales numbers over Christmas?

For those following the trends I have been pointing out it shouldn't come as no surprise that these stores are having problems. More of them are going to go by the ways side in the future as well. If you rely on a large parking lot to deliver customers to your store you better start coming up with plan B. Stores that move to urban concepts or on-line are going to be the new retail leaders. Ironically, it was Sears and JC Penney that first deliver goods to their non-urban customers with their catalogues (the precursor to the internet).

I can remember when JC Penney sold tools. I have a 6 drawer open top with lid Penncraft toolbox I bought there in 1970 that I still use today. I can also remember a time when if you needed a refrigerator or washer and dryer, you just went to Sears to get them.

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Originally Posted by gjl

I can remember when JC Penney sold tools. I have a 6 drawer open top with lid Penncraft toolbox I bought there in 1970 that I still use today. I can also remember a time when if you needed a refrigerator or washer and dryer, you just went to Sears to get them.

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Yup. That's how I grew up. When Sears stopped worrying about selling crappy merchandise, which started loooong before the Internet "revolution," that's when customers started leaving. Generational customers, too, like me, that grew up buying Sears because you just did.

And, if you think about it, had the timing been better (on both sides), Sears could easily have morphed into an Amazon before Amazon as a "first generation" online retailer.

Alas...what might have been :)

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Originally Posted by Just the facts

For those following the trends I have been pointing out it shouldn't come as no surprise that these stores are having problems. More of them are going to go by the ways side in the future as well. If you rely on a large parking lot to deliver customers to your store you better start coming up with plan B. Stores that move to urban concepts or on-line are going to be the new retail leaders. Ironically, it was Sears and JC Penney that first deliver goods to their non-urban customers with their catalogues (the precursor to the internet).

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Where will all of this people work...Fast food? Technology might just be the final nail in the coffin.

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Originally Posted by Garin

Where will all of this people work...Fast food? Technology might just be the final nail in the coffin.

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Surely doesn't speak very well of the perceived prospective skill levels of these people. That is, if not JCPenney or Sears...then fastfood is their only employment destiny? Happen to know a decent portion of their employment population includes college-age students working to supplement income, some as a transitional position while learning other vocations....just have a hard time lumping the entire pile into an "abandon hope" bucket.

I don't think its online shopping that is hurting Sears and JC Penney. For Sears, it is Wal-Mart and the fact they let their quality fall so low they are no longer distinguishable from the competition. JC Penney it is a poor marketing strategy that backfired. They have taken steps to correct it, but time will tell if its too little, too late.

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Originally Posted by Garin

Where will all of this people work...Fast food? Technology might just be the final nail in the coffin.

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As pickers, shippers and rippers in order fulfillment centers. And when they're past their prime, well, no one ever really promised Soylent Green would forever come in only one flavor or color.

After I left Otasco in the 70s (asst mgr job) I went to Wards for a short while as a Lawn & Garden salesman then took on the Fence Estimators job. Otasco wasn't keeping up with the times and IMO Wards closed primarily b/c they were so top heavy. Our store had as many people upstairs in the offices as there were on the floor. Highly paid do nothings mostly. It was all about do good and get an upstairs job and those jobs were killing the company. I retired from Tinker as a wage grade machinist.

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Originally Posted by Garin

Where will all of this people work...Fast food? Technology might just be the final nail in the coffin.

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After the global economy kills off the regional economy the local economy will rise from the ashes. I can't wait.

I see the fall of JCP and Sears (on the apparel side at least) being partially due to the rise of discount stores like Marshalls, TJ Maxx, and Nordstrom Rack along with the outlet malls. If someone is looking for an item at a certain price point, many would prefer to spend the money on a designer brand that is "last year's style" versus St. John's Bay.

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Originally Posted by soonerliberal

I see the fall of JCP and Sears (on the apparel side at least) being partially due to the rise of discount stores like Marshalls, TJ Maxx, and Nordstrom Rack along with the outlet malls. If someone is looking for an item at a certain price point, many would prefer to spend the money on a designer brand that is "last year's style" versus St. John's Bay.

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And, again, the largest department store in the United States is the very successful Kohl's. It has really hurt JCP.

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Originally Posted by zookeeper

And, again, the largest department store in the United States is the very successful Kohl's. It has really hurt JCP.

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At least from my personal experience this is very true. My wife drags me to Kohls, JCP and others on a regular basis searching for office clothes. So many of her purchases end up being from Kohls I wonder why she bothers shopping the others.

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Originally Posted by bchris02

I don't think its online shopping that is hurting Sears and JC Penney. For Sears, it is Wal-Mart and the fact they let their quality fall so low they are no longer distinguishable from the competition. JC Penney it is a poor marketing strategy that backfired. They have taken steps to correct it, but time will tell if its too little, too late.

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While I agree with most of your points, at least for a time Sears quality was so low it was distinguishable in a negative way.

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Originally Posted by SoonerDave

Surely doesn't speak very well of the perceived prospective skill levels of these people. That is, if not JCPenney or Sears...then fastfood is their only employment destiny? Happen to know a decent portion of their employment population includes college-age students working to supplement income, some as a transitional position while learning other vocations....just have a hard time lumping the entire pile into an "abandon hope" bucket.

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Retail in general if it doesn't exist where will all these people work

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Originally Posted by Garin

Retail in general if it doesn't exist where will all these people work

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He'll collect food stamps and TANF and we'll bash them in the Politics sub.

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Originally Posted by bchris02

I agree. Their new "Hometown" concept - which pretty much focuses on hardware, tools, and appliances, is the future for that company. The days of buying clothing and electronics from Sears are long gone. The reduced store size will be a massive cost reduction for the company and they can focus on what actually makes them money.

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A nice thing about the Hometown concept is that they are franchised out and not a part of the main Sears operations.

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Originally Posted by stick47

Never saw a Craftsman tool chest or one of their tools at TAFB when I worked there. When the shops went to ISO 9000 specs a number of years ago KP Supply had the tool kitting contract for the East side of the base (3001 Bldg & the South 40 area) I doubt the Sears guy knew what he was talking about.

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My wife used to work at the Midwest City store in hardware/seasonal she made most of her sales to contractors and airmen in uniform. They would come in with GSA credit cards and purchase orders to buy hand and power tools. She also made a killing during the summer season. The lawn and garden sales alone would carry the store through the summer months.

I think Sears in the process of leaving the malls. They are closing stores mall stores all over the country. I think the Sears Hometown is going to be there future. The only Sears stores that will likely remain are the freestanding stores like South Western. I am wondering how long the Sooner and Midwest City stores will keep there doors open. Midwest City could be moved to Town Center and Sooner Mall could be moved to University North Park as Sears Hometown stores.

JCP could easily be saved if they would just stick with one strategy and go with it. They are getting as bad as Circuit City was in there final years. They changed strategies so many times they ended up on the road to disaster.

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Originally Posted by MWCGuy

... JCP could easily be saved if they would just stick with one strategy and go with it. They are getting as bad as Circuit City was in there final years. They changed strategies so many times they ended up on the road to disaster.

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Not sure how it is now but about a year or two ago it was reported that they were having a problem in they where half way between a transitional strategy that for the most part was not working out, losing tons of money because of it, to top it off they likely could not afford to either revert back or do any other sort of major change to pull out all that was not working.

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Originally Posted by Garin

Retail in general if it doesn't exist where will all these people work

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So, again, the only employment skill these people have is retail....sorry, I just can't agree with that.

The Sears at SW 44 and Western is truly a ghost town. I stop in some, but only to take a look at their sale or clearance items. You can get some decent tools and yard stuff when they mark it down and put it in the overflow/seasonal storage space off the main retail floor. Their electronics are a joke, never seen a price I couldn't crush elsewhere and the selection is usually not very good. My parents still like to buy appliances at Sears because they've had great luck with warranty work.

Really hate that the Craftsman brand is nothing like it used to be. Had a Craftsman riding mower for a bit and was thrilled when I sold it.

As for JCP - I sometimes walk through when I got to Penn Square Mall. Store looks pretty full to me. I look at their sale clothing, but otherwise I find their prices a bit too high for me.

I'd guess JCP falls before Sears.

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Originally Posted by BBatesokc

The Sears at SW 44 and Western is truly a ghost town.

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Had heard many times over the years that the Integris nee South Community Hospital had made more than one effort to buy the Sears property to expand their medical campus, especially after the strip shopping center went down, but never came to terms. Also heard that when Montgomery Wards went under decades ago, Sears was primed to abandon the Reding property and move to Crossroads, but the lease was tied up in the bankruptcy courts and could never be legally unwound (and, obviously, this is back when Crossroads was vibrant and relevant). Sure think that might have helped out that Sears location, but given their current future, likely would only have forestalled the inevitable.

After reading that the SEC is looking into some of JCPenney's recent financial statements and representations about debt, and how they're starting to close stores and lay off workers, makes it hard to see how they can avoid the "retail death spiral" that leads to closure in the next six months to year. Maybe we can revisit this in November and see if the company still exists going into this Christmas.

JCP simply alienated their core customer by trying to rebrand themselves as hip and trendy. Hopefully they can right the ship before its too late.

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Originally Posted by SoonerDave

So, again, the only employment skill these people have is retail....sorry, I just can't agree with that.

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Most of the people working in retail aren't doing it by choice, A alot of them are women that are trying to provide a second income for the family or its part time. If retail goes away where does this work go? What takes its place?

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Originally Posted by Garin

Most of the people working in retail aren't doing it by choice, A alot of them are women that are trying to provide a second income for the family or its part time. If retail goes away where does this work go? What takes its place?

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Can't understand how, in a free market economy, the notion of "retail" can ever truly go away. It may take different forms, be implemented in different ways, but as long as there are manufacturers, wholesalers, and consumers, there will always be retailers in some form.

Beyond that, as a matter of history, classes of jobs have come and gone, grown and shrunk, and as in those times, the result will largely be a matter of folks adapting to what the job market provides.

I shopped in JCP yesterday, got some really good deals. The items I purchased were less on line then the "mall store" prices, so they matched them and I was very pleased.