Sirens don't really bother me that much. They may be annoying but they force people to keep paying attention at a time they should be paying attention. We had a tornado heading NW last night, that's insane.
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Sirens don't really bother me that much. They may be annoying but they force people to keep paying attention at a time they should be paying attention. We had a tornado heading NW last night, that's insane.
Yesterday morning, the meteorologists were predicting isolated severe weather centered on western Oklahoma. What ended up happening was a major outbreak centered on OKC. It's hard to believe it was a slight risk day and OKC wasn't even included in that risk yesterday morning. I am extremely nervous about Saturday.Quote:
Originally Posted by LocoAko
Do you know what it is about the H.E. Bailey Turnpike. Why do severe outbreaks so many times happen with supercells going up in SW OK, going up the turnpike into the OKC area impacting Moore?
Hey Venture is there a problem with the chat room on Weather Spotlight? I get page can not be displayed where the chat should be and nothing on my system has changed or been blocked. The twitter feeds on the left show up fine just no chat.
Agree. Tornadoes can turn and form w/out notice, so warning a large area is prudent, despite the fact that it may warn people in an area out of danger. We were safe in downtown, but when the one popped up at S 44th & I-35, and KOCO said it might suddenly have turned N/NW, we were taken aback and headed into the basement for a bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by gopokes88
Did downtown get flooded like on May 31st?Quote:
Originally Posted by cafeboeuf
None that I am aware of. There are several of us in there right now chatting with no issue. Only changes I made this morning were to the streaming source (youtube instead of ustream).Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby821
Dang, I wonder how I can fix it thenQuote:
Originally Posted by venture
One fatality now being reported as someone drowned in their storm shelter. :(
How is the Oklahoma River? I'm supposed to have a picnic at Wiley Post Park with my band and orchestra students tomorrow evening but if there is a chance of flooding that way I'll likely cancel. It would be nice to give them a heads up since they're all bringing food.
So much wrong with this post, but I'll respond regardless.Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
1) What ended up happening was isolated severe weather, roughly 2 storms, that impacted a highly populated area that made headlines likely. That doesn't make it an outbreak alone. Yes we also had some additional tornadoes up in NW OK and of course the bigger show up in Kansas and Nebraska (tornado wise). Major outbreak though? Hardly...at least for us.
2) First off...OKC WAS included in the slight risk at the initial risk outlook put out at 12:55AM. You can read all about here: Storm Prediction Center May 6, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Why is it hard to believe it was a Slight Risk day...even though it was actually upgraded to enhanced later in the day. We had a complicated setup that could have completely busted out yesterday. Would you be here commenting on how we all would have missed the forecast again if things evolved differently?
Situations evolve and so do forecasts. Early in the day it was noted that SPC was holding the tornado probabilities at 5% because they weren't sure on exact coverage. They did however note that conditions would be supportive of strong tornadoes, so they weren't missing that part at all.
As far as the I-44 being a storm magnet. Why is the intertropical convergence zone one for hurricanes in the Atlantic? More than likely it is just a matter of being in the geographically favored area. Nothing more. Unless you want to start talking indian burial grounds and stuff.
The City noted quite a few downtown/urban core buildings that had minor flood damage. I saw some incredible photos of basements and streets filled w/ running water. And our basement had more water intrusion (nothing bad) than we had on May 31st, 2013. My anecdotal answer would be yes, it did, if not worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
Woah, you actually replied to that?!? I thought, "Nah, Venture will just let that pass. No need to comment on something that absurd." I think you actually enjoy it. :wink:Quote:
Originally Posted by venture
Why wasn't the tiger outbreak in Tuttle included in SPC's forecast for the day???? :D
The tracks of those tornadoes are unreal. Wobbling all over the place.Quote:
Originally Posted by venture
What is the logic behind randomly turning the tornado sirens on and off in the northernmost part of the county when the actual threat of a tornado is in the southernmost part of the county (and tracking away from the unaffected area)? Is it to "save lives"? Or is it to encourage "the boy who cried wolf" syndrome? (excuse me: "the boy who cried tiger" syndrome). Somehow, on an intuitive level, it doesn't make sense to alarm people without good reason.
I know I know...but I figured - get it out of my system now before Saturday and the total meltdown takes place. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by SoonerBeerMan
Might not be a bad idea for us to get another thread going on the OKC / OK County siren policy to give it some attention.Quote:
Originally Posted by RadicalModerate
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0532.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071520Z - 071715Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS FROM A PORTION OF THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX. THOUGH A WW IS POSSIBLE...THREAT FROM THESE
INITIAL STORMS MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...A WHICH TIME A WW MIGHT BE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS ACROSS NRN TX INTO NWRN TX. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THE NEAR
SFC LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER CNTRL TX AND
MID 60S OVER WRN TX GENERALLY SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. STORMS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER WRN TX APPEAR TO BE IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF
ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY. THESE STORMS APPEAR POORLY ORGANIZED AND ELEVATED ABOVE A
STABLE SFC LAYER...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT IS
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH SOME OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.
WITH TIME THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN...AND RICHER MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT INTO NWRN TX AND SWRN OK WHICH /IN ADDITION TO DIABATIC
HEATING/ WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE SRN MOST STORMS OVER WRN TX MIGHT PERSIST AND INTENSIFY LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERS.
STORMS THAT PERSIST AND REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES.
..DIAL/HART.. 05/07/2015
Yeah, we are literally in the far SW corner of Oklahoma County and hear sirens from Cleveland, McClain, Canadian, Oklahoma and I think Grady. It was nonstop, last night.
I was already doing that last night, since the closest action to me was at the diagonally oppoksite corner of the county.Quote:
Originally Posted by UnclePete
Someone should tell TPTB about the boy who cried "Wolf!" too many times...
Well, Moderate risks and High risks forecast can end up busting so I think its silly you assume the worst will happen just because they couldn't predict two storms occurring over one geographic spot last night. There could be too many storms Saturday that fight each for energy, morning/early afternoon storms, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
Saturday will get here soon enough. We need to pay attention to today and tomorrow first. (There is a hint of a moderate risk upgrade for tomorrow by the SPC).
Looks like generic linear storms and rain evolving out of NW TX. Main threat will be flooding.
EDIT:
southern cluster looks to be isolating more and is rotating slightly. Altus area will need to be aware.
Great idea! As it happens I've been a weather buff longer than most of the crew here have been alive, and a distant cousin of mine (Tom Kyle, who passed away just this past year) issued the first ever broadcast Tornado warning back when he headed the Weather Bureau office at the old Will Rogers Field site. I'll definitely head for cover when the threat gets within a mile of me (and track what's happening both here, and via smartphone apps to see real-time radar), but last night was ridiculous.Quote:
Originally Posted by venture
And I'm more than a bit concerned about Saturday, but yesterday certainly shows how little we actually know about the factors that control the storms. Too much reliance on the models is, I think, even worse than too little!
Also I know we've bashed them plenty in the last few weeks but I'd like to applaud the NWS yesterday. They seemed very very on point with their warnings and general info. All the warnings were coming out at a rapid pace in a timely manner and gave people plenty of time to seek shelter if the need warranted it.
Wait, it's already started out in the TX panhandle? Geez. It's barely lunchtime!
Is there any good news for Saturday? As in, things that would be against a major outbreak? Weaker shear, etc.