View Full Version : BCS Scenarios



Patrick
10-14-2004, 09:26 PM
I thought this article brought up some valid points. Looks like there may be another controversy in the BCS championship game again this year. We have 13 unbeaten teams so far..........surely that will be cut as the season goes on, but I wonder how many there will be on Dec. 4th.

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"Number of undefeated teams could keep BCS controversy high

By John Rohde
The Oklahoman

If defending national champion Southern California finishes the regular season 12-0, do the Trojans deserve to play for the national title in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 4?
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"Preseason picks questionable
The problem with human polls is they can be inhumane.

Teams are initially ranked, more than anything, based on reputation and the number of returning starters.

The remainder of the season is spent trying to validate their accuracy.

Human voters can be stubborn, ignorant, arrogant or all three.

Computers are not. But then again, computers are programmed by humans.

“That’s precisely why we have continued to involve the computer element, because I do believe there are some weaknesses to the human polls,” BCS coordinator Kevin Weiberg said.

Compare this year’s preseason Associated Press poll next to this week’s AP poll and there are considerable differences:


Defending national champion LSU, which was ranked fourth and received one first-place vote in the preseason poll, slipped to No. 24 after five games.

Georgia, which was ranked No. 3 and received five first-place votes in the preseason, lost at home last weekend to an inexperienced Tennessee team that lost 34-10 at home the week before.

Ohio State, initially ranked No. 9, already has fallen to No. 25.

Defending Big 12 champion Kansas State, initially ranked No. 12, has beaten only Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette this season.

Clemson was ranked No. 15, Missouri was ranked No. 18, Oregon was ranked No. 23 and each disappeared from the poll after their first two games.

Nebraska initially was ranked the equivalent of No. 27 and lost 70-10 to an unranked team last weekend.

Oklahoma State was ranked the equivalent of 35th and has yet to break a sweat while climbing to No. 16.

North Texas received a vote in the first poll, and the Mean Green lost by an average of 31.5 points in its four non-conference games.

The most misjudged team so far is Auburn, which began at No. 17 and might be the best team in the country.
The Tigers’ recent past came back to haunt them.

Some made Auburn the preseason No. 1 pick last year, but the Tigers started 0-2 and didn’t find the end zone for the first 10 quarters.

With voters guarding against being burned again, Auburn paid the price in this year’s preseason poll. As a result, the Tigers might have too far to climb to get a shot at the national title.

By John Rohde
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If Oklahoma goes 12-0 as the Big 12 champion, do the Sooners deserve to play in the national title game?

If Auburn goes 12-0 as the Southeastern Conference champ, do the Tigers deserve to play in the national title game?

If Miami goes 11-0 and wins the revamped Atlantic Coast Conference, do the Hurricanes deserve to stay at home and play for the national title?

The answer to each is yes, which means the quandary has no answer.

All the above is possible. So, too, is all the below:


Wisconsin or Purdue could go 11-0 and win the Big Ten, yet neither would get a shot at the national title.

Virginia could go 11-0, win the ACC and not get a shot at the title.

Oklahoma State could go 12-0, win the Big 12, and not get a shot at the title.

Utah, Boise State and Southern Mississippi could go 11-0 and not get into a BCS game.
These scenarios are all based on unbeaten records, proving there is no perfect solution for perfection.

Which brings us to the Bowl Championship Series.

The first BCS standings come out Monday.

This year’s BCS rankings have a new formula - one-third Associated Press poll; one-third USA Today/ESPN poll; one-third computer polls (six computer rankings will be used; the highest and lowest scores discarded to compute a team’s poll average).

And if more than two teams have perfect records on Dec. 4, all this will be countered with at least two-thirds of football fans complaining there is no playoff system.

“The system is what it is,” said Big 12 commissioner Kevin Weiberg, who is serving a two-year term as BCS coordinator. “While I think it is an improvement, it doesn’t eliminate the potential for season-ending controversy.

“I just accept the notion that’s possible, and move on from that.”

There are 13 unbeaten Division I-A teams this week.

By this week last year, there were only five unbeatens.

By the end of October last year, there were three.

By the end of November last year, there was one (OU).

And when it came time to hand out invitations one week later, there were zero unbeatens and one colossal controversy.

Weiberg said he prefers to not look into a crystal ball when it comes to predicting who will play where each January.

“I really don’t do too much of that,” Weiberg said. “If there’s one thing being around this (BCS) system now for six years is the poll changes quite a bit from the first one to the final one. If you spend too much time thinking about what might develop in the future, you’re often surprised that something different has developed.”

Last year’s BCS formula was based on poll average, computer average, schedule rank, losses and a quality-win component.

Had this year’s formula been used last year, LSU and USC would have played for the national title in the Sugar Bowl rather than LSU and OU.

In the 2001 season, Miami would have played Oregon rather than Nebraska.

While some coaches feign non-interest in how the BCS works, others plead ignorance.

“I don’t even know the formula the BCS uses anymore,” Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville said earlier this week. “They’ve changed it so much.”

Other coaches scream at the BCS’ far-reaching power.

Utah coach Urban Meyer said he doesn’t think major bowls should have any BCS tie-ins.

“When I get older with a little more say-so, I’m going to be screaming my lungs out, because it’s wrong,” Meyer told CBS Sportsline.

The system will be tweaked again in the 2006 season with the expected addition of a fifth BCS bowl game at a site yet to be determined. "