No changes to speak of before October starts, so might as well start the new thread. Colder air currently forecast to come in the middle of the first week of October, possibly wet and possible severe.

Also, El Nino is officially on, so that may play into the coming months... One NOAA model even predicts a "Super El Nino" (FWIW). https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/26/super-el-nino-forecast-winter/

https://x.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1707479596558360822?s=20 Not buying it. I hope metro can get into the 40s but not ready to get excited yet.

Yeah, I'm thinking that the cold front next weekend will push us back to average, so highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's.

We are still 4-5 days out, so there is time for things to change, but it currently looks like the main severe weather threat would focus to our west on Tuesday, and to our southeast on Wednesday.

Man, mother nature really hates OKC, in terms of rain.

Still going to get plenty of rain from this (my over/under for OKC is 1.50"), but as of right now the impacts to OKC look to be centered on the overnight Tuesday to early afternoon Wednesday timeframe which does not favor severe weather.

2-3”+ forecasted for parts of central and eastern OK this Wednesday and Thursday. Amazing fall weather will follow for at least the next week - highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s (some areas in northern OK will drop into the 40’s)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023100112/gfs_apcpn_scus_30.png

Current rainfall forecast, per NWS Norman. Crossing my fingers that this pans out! As of right now, this looks to mainly fall in two waves - the first between 1 a.m. and 7 a.m. Wednesday, then a relative lull, then a second heavier wave between 1 p.m. Wednesday and 1 a.m. Thursday.

18341

I hope it's right.... Carter County is a powder keg.... I actually heard a tarantula moving through the grass before I saw it the other day.

The GFS model has more rainfall across Oklahoma than the EURO. There will be convective t-storms with this system that will drop heavier rains in certain areas, and possibly some "training" storms so I would expect some localized areas to see 3-4"+ especially across SE OK

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023100212/gfs_apcpn_scus_15.png

EURO
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2023100206/ecmwf_apcpn_scus_30.png

Looks like rain is, again, shifting away from central OKC.

The cold front for the weekend will be strong enough to make it to Dallas for the OU/Texas game. A definite godsend for the fans at the State Fair of Texas/Cotton Bowl.

The cold front for the weekend will be strong enough to make it to Dallas for the OU/Texas game. A definite godsend for the fans at the State Fair of Texas/Cotton Bowl.

I am excited to make my first chili of the season Saturday Morning before OU/Texas. Perfect timing for it.

Wednesday looks like an afternoon event for the Metro 2-5ish. Heavy rain possible. Hail storms possible. Low Tornado but not zero.

Tomorrow afternoon is going to be a close call for the Metro, and I think it will ultimately depend on how things evolve overnight. If we get more overnight convection than what's currently forecast, the focal point for tomorrow afternoon's event will likely be to our southeast. But if all of the overnight convection stays to our north, I would expect us to be under the gun. For the time being I would say that we're on the northern edge of the highest threat area. Looks like our best severe weather chances will be sometime between 3:00 p.m. - 7:00 p.m. with significant hail and flash flooding as the main threats.

Tomorrow afternoon is going to be a close call for the Metro, and I think it will ultimately depend on how things evolve overnight. If we get more overnight convection than what's currently forecast, the focal point for tomorrow afternoon's event will likely be to our southeast. But if all of the overnight convection stays to our north, I would expect us to be under the gun. For the time being I would say that we're on the northern edge of the highest threat area. Looks like our best severe weather chances will be sometime between 3:00 p.m. - 7:00 p.m. with significant hail and flash flooding as the main threats.

Some interesting sounds from 5-6 tomorrow right along I-40. I'm sure it will change again it's 3 pm now on Tuesday but tomorrow looks interesting

I-40 South still seems to be under the gun for 10/4/23. Looks like 5-6 time frame still.

Feels like mid-May outside this morning. I would lean towards the Metro having a robust severe weather threat between approximately 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. today. Higher chances as you go south.

Latest HRRR shows the most training storms being just along I-40 and points south.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023100412/hrrr_apcpn_scus_21.png

It was great watching, again, the area to the NE of OKC get dumped on. When is it supposed to rain in OKC? Or is it shifting away from us?

SVR Watch is out for W OK, this does not include OKC (at this time). We should continue to see development of storms across SW and W OK that fill in as they head ENE.

Impact of storms into OKC is likely to be around 5-6pm. Heavy rain will be the primary threat, some embedded hail pockets are possible, but the storms will likely be clustered by the time of reaching C OK, so large hail threat will decrease unless some cells stay isolated.

Hey anon, I spotted a radar with some storms north of Chickasha but couldn't tell much beyond that. Just heavy rain or a hailer headed into OKC?

OKC now under the severe watch until 10:00 pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 705 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC005-013-017-019-023-027-029-049-051-061-063-067-069-077-085-
087-091-095-099-101-107-109-111-121-123-125-127-133-137-
050300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0705.231004T1945Z-231005T0300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA BRYAN CANADIAN
CARTER CHOCTAW CLEVELAND
COAL GARVIN GRADY
HASKELL HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE
MARSHALL MCCLAIN MCINTOSH
MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE STEPHENS
$$

Watch has been extended [actually just a new one covering C and SE OK]. Numerous isolated new cells going up just W and SW of OKC. These will have hail threat and be impacting the city between 4 and 5pm now.

It almost looks like this first round is splitting and the largest amount of rain may mostly miss central OKC (I’ll be happy to be wrong) - which is quite funny given the recent commentary in this thread!

^This will be the only round of storms for OKC. After these pass, it will just be scattered showers and drizzle.

Latest HRRR showing generally around 1" across the OKC area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023100420/hrrr_apcpn_scus_7.png

Severe threat is quickly diminishing as elevated thunderstorms are currently congealing into clusters while moving into the Metro. Ultimately, it appears that the effective cold front moved too far south of the Metro to support surface-based convection, and a lack of any meaningful convective inhibition allowed for widespread initiation and prevented any of the elevated storms from becoming dominant enough to sustain much of a severe hail threat. Fortunately, it does appear that most of the Metro will still get some nice rainfall totals over the next hour or two, although not as much as what was forecast a couple of days ago. Be on the lookout for localized street flooding during the evening commute.

Just light rain, no thunder and .04" so far in Stillwater. I'll probably have to water my plants later on unless this thing wants to turn into a long-lasting gentle rain for the night. Tulsa County has a severe thunderstorm warning as of 5:45 pm.

Decent rains across many areas of the state before another dry week with cooler temps. It will really feel like fall next week with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s

https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png?cache_bust=1696466719808

A seasonably strong cold front will pass through the Metro this afternoon, bringing gusty north winds and a fairly sharp drop in temperatures. Tomorrow morning will be chilly with lows dropping into the lower 40's. Highs only reach the mid 60's tomorrow, but full sunshine and much lighter winds should result in a beautiful day. Southerly winds return by Sunday and will herald a fairly rapid warm up, with highs getting back into the mid 80's by the middle of next week. Next system should impact the area on Wednesday or Thursday, although best precipitation chances may stay to our north and east. Regardless, looking at another cooldown by next weekend, although it doesn't appear to be too significant. Overall, a fairly standard mid-autumn pattern for the region.

Finally... Hello fall!

Finding things I left in my jacket pockets season!

Warming up again this week into the low 80’s but with low humidity and lots of sunshine. Really nice fall weather to get outside. Humidity increases on Thursday ahead of a front but the best rain/storm chances are in eastern OK and especially into NW Arkansas. Worth watching to see if that shifts west this week.

Windy and dry will be the rule for the next week. Well above normal temperatures and gusty south winds will be the rule for the next three days, but a strong cold front will pass through during the overnight hours on Thursday and usher in a pattern change to well below normal temperatures and gusty north winds for the next several days thereafter. Possible warming trend and a return of precipitation chances as we approach next weekend. It officially feels like mid-autumn in Oklahoma!

GFS models keep Oklahoma entirely dry on Thursday. EURO and CMC are more bullish on storms firing in NE OK. Better chances statewide around 10/19-20 with better moisture return ahead of a cold front. No abnormally cold temps on the horizon for the next two weeks.

Guess it's time to turn the sprinklers on again. No rain in the near future

Yes, pretty boring weather-wise around here for a few days. Wed-Thurs will be about the wind. Then it will be about the cold air heading into the weekend.

Yes, pretty boring weather-wise around here for a few days. Wed-Thurs will be about the wind. Then it will be about the cold air heading into the weekend.

Hrrr one run tried to fire storms in the Metro than it went away now the Nam st is trying to fire storms in the metro. SMH This is for Thursday evening

^ This morning NAM and HRRR trying their hardest to pop off an isolated showers/storms across C OK.

^ This morning NAM and HRRR trying their hardest to pop off an isolated showers/storms across C OK.

What time are they trying to pop off?

What time are they trying to pop off?

One run this morning had it 7pm of the HRRR the Nam was early Friday morning but not going to happen maybe 10% chance.

Earlier this morning SPC removed any chance of C OK getting development. Their latest update here at lunchtime has added it back in, extending to C and S OK. This is for the extreme outside chance that something could get developed this evening. Models have continued to not let go of the possibility.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023101215/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_15.png

I'd really like some good rain. Our pond needs a refill. I will say I'm completely looking forward the fall-like temperatures however.

Congratulations if you got a little bit of rain tonight totally missed me at my house on the west side of town

Very narrow band of rain overnight from central to NE OK where some areas around Tulsa picked up over an inch.

Better rain chances return end of next week after a couple chilly sunny days (mainly because of the gusty north winds)

Well rain chances have gone way down for most areas later this week. Some parts of SE OK and the Red River valley could see storms Thursday into Friday. Possible change to a wetter pattern beginning the last week of October with big rains possible especially in western OK.

Dry start to fall across many areas of the state hopefully things pick up in November. Much better shape this year with our summer rainfall than last year though except for a few areas like north-central OK that are still in severe drought
https://data.prod.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/delseason_rain.current.png?cache_bust=169739099577 8

This will change but models are in agreement that a pattern change begins mid-next week which should bring more rainfall to the southern Plains through the first week of November
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023101618/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Hot weather returns this weekend with highs in the mid-upper 80's, near 90 in some areas. Still dry and windy so fire danger will be elevated especially areas in western OK.

The big pattern change begins on Tuesday 10/24 and continues into Wednesday 10/25 as the remnants of Hurricane Norma move northward. Then a better chance of widespread storms and heavy rain on Thursday 10/26. Then another storm moves in the following Monday 10/30 - at this time Halloween looks to be clear and cool with high temps in the 50's

The clouds moving over Oklahoma today are from Hurricane Norma currently hitting Cabo. That storm will be a rain maker across the state later this week

Here it comes. Hurricane remnants + upper-level storm system sweeping across. Should be taking a direct path over OK.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif?cache_bust=1698067689922

Hopefully it stays on its current track as this will really ease the drought in many areas. The water situation in SE Kansas is particularly bad right now.

Rain will be the big story this week and next week it will be the cold weather, possibly the first freeze of the season for many across the state.

Here is the latest on a few weather models.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023102312/gem_apcpn_scus_16.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023102312/gfs_apcpn_scus_17.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2023102312/namconus_apcpn_scus_28.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2023102312/rgem_apcpn_scus_84.png

GFS model showing accumulating snow along the OK-KS line next week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023102406/gfs_asnow_scus_38.png

Wow. Fall was a nice two weeks I guess.

Looks like there might be freezing rain in the forecast next week.


What did everyone get in their rain gauges? It feels like about an inch at my house.

1.2 inches out NW OKC

Is this it? Or is there more coming?

Next batch is in W TX right now. Models suggesting up to another inch in C OK.

Looks like there might be freezing rain in the forecast next week.


What did everyone get in their rain gauges? It feels like about an inch at my house.

1.6 in mine down in norman.

Progress on the rain shield out across W OK is slowing and weakening. HRRR is suggesting this batch will die out as it reaches C OK. Then there will be a resurgence to the SE. So C OK may be close to finished with anything heavier than light showers.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2023102512/hrrr_apcpn_scus_28.png