The negative financial impact of Covid-19, both local and national, is going to be unlike anything we've seen in a very long time. I can't but wonder will mortgage companies, utilities, insurance (or other high monthly expenses) will a grace period be extended as needed?

I can imagine a food server or hotel worker having their work hours curtailed drastically which will hurt their pocketbook. The idea of 'work from home' does not apply to a large portion of the work force.

I hope a grace period for high monthly expenses will be provided as needed.

Your thoughts?

The negative financial impact of Covid-19, both local and national, is going to be unlike anything we've seen in a very long time. I can't but wonder will mortgage companies, utilities, insurance (or other high monthly expenses) will a grace period be extended as needed?

I can imagine a food server or hotel worker having their work hours curtailed drastically which will hurt their pocketbook. The idea of 'work from home' does not apply to a large portion of the work force.

I hope a grace period for high monthly expenses will be provided as needed.

Your thoughts?

Lots of people are going to lose their cars, their apartments, their houses, their businesses, etc. unless everybody allows a grace period for everything. There are so many millions living on the edge, paycheck to paycheck, if not day-to-day or underwater, it's going to be horrible for this country.

I think this may be in the works from most large companies. An economy has so many working parts that a massive disruption like this will definitely be a major change to our lives for a while. Just remember, not all payment receiving businesses are huge, massively profitable businesses so there certainly may be hardship for a few weeks.

Along with "encouragement" from the Feds for all payment oriented firms to work with customers, the Feds should also postpone the normal April 15 tax deadline to something like August 1 or September 1.

I read an article that the virus doesn't transmit as easily in hot environments is promising for a summer slowdown. If this happens and the spread slows, the economy will come back. How quick a recovery and how much of one is unknown.

Disney World is closing...

Hopefully this ordeal will be a quick turn around. I was self employed for 20 years and I know the unique challenges with finances and being self employed. As a result I have a lot of empathy for those who are in the labor market where their income is based on tips, weather interruptions and other obstacles which prevent steady income. I hope some financial grace can be extended to those who will most assuredly need it.

^

At the same time, it's going to be hard for many small businesses to keep paying their employees when revenues are sharply down.

Very true. When I had slow down turns when I was self employed I had to dig really deep in order to pay my employees who needed the business to sustain them. But luckily the down turn only lasted a week or so. This situation could have much longer duration of financial lose.
^

At the same time, it's going to be hard for many small businesses to keep paying their employees when revenues are sharply down.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said this morning that banks will be provided as much liquidity as necessary - that should help with the upcoming wave of consumer debt payment defaults. The package being negotiated with Congress includes extended unemployment benefits (“gig” worker coverage is unknown), waiving work requirements for food aid, $45 billion in Medicaid funds to states (how would that work in Oklahoma?). Unknown about student loan repayment abatement. More details of the package will be known as the day goes on.

The DOW has jumped backed up 1200 points so far.

Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said this morning that banks will be provided as much liquidity as necessary - that should help with the upcoming wave of consumer debt payment defaults. The package being negotiated with Congress includes extended unemployment benefits (“gig” worker coverage is unknown), waiving work requirements for food aid, $45 billion in Medicaid funds to states (how would that work in Oklahoma?). Unknown about student loan repayment abatement. More details of the package will be known as the day goes on.

Paid sick leave, paid sick leave, paid sick leave, paid sick leave........... I know that's (almost) impossible to implement right now, but I'm guessing we'll see how badly we (by "we", I mean collective America, I've personally thought we've needed it for decades) need it after this runs its course.

The DOW has jumped backed up 1200 points so far.

Gains are now less than 500 and dropping.

Gains are now less than 500 and dropping.
Damn. Was hoping for a rebound.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-13-20-intl-hnk/h_880ab4411b837f369c5511561cba7c39

Delta to cut capacity by 40%, park 300 airplanes. This is just the beginning.

There are going to be tons of layoffs.

The question becomes how does the government help these businesses and the people without jobs?

Back up over 800 but waiting on the Trump State of Emergency speech. Should also include some cooperation between Pelosi and Mnuchin.

This will take massive infusion of federal money to prop up and keep this economy from collapsing. The double-edged sword is the deficits and accumulation of debt. So much uncertainty.

This will take massive infusion of federal money to prop up and keep this economy from collapsing. The double-edged sword is the deficits and accumulation of debt. So much uncertainty.

Oh, absolutely, recession here we come, hope it's not too bad, but it's probably going to be global.

Market closed up big today, but its going to be a long weekend with probably all sorts of news coming from Europe.

I watched the speech on a station with the Dow and S&P in a letterbox. Once it became clear that EVERYONE is pitching in to get tests quicker and easily available, get testing results more quickly,and the like, the market started climbing. Investors liked what they were hearing.

It's going to be very painful for 2-3 months and then hopefully the concerns will state to subside and we'll start heading the right direction again.

I'd rather just take the pain now then have this drag out for 6 months or so. There are many businesses that won't be able to hang on that long.

I'm really curious what the actual impact to the economy would be if we just stopped everything for 3 weeks. Financial markets, everything except for essential services such as electrical plants and water systems. After 3 weeks it would be just like turning the lights on at the office on Monday morning after a weekend.

Could the economy theoretically take a 3 week holiday? Provide a 1 month extension on all loans. If your loan matures on 6/2030, it now matures on 7/2030.

I don't think it could happen but I'd rather this be done with as quick as possible. Would the effects of that be better or worse than 3 months of financial ruin?

^

That's basically what has been done in Italy and it seems they've gotten on top of this thing.

Culturally and politically, that would never happen here.

Bezos is probably in the best position to take a financial hit, and yet most of our $ will probably be going to him for streaming and digital content from homes.

Bezos is probably in the best position to take a financial hit, and yet most of our $ will probably be going to him for streaming and digital content from homes.

And of course, ordering all types of things online while we are social distancing.

These are uncharted waters for sure. But what if viruses become our new normal. How in the world could financial markets and John Q. Public endure so much uncertainty? I hope, hope, hope this ISN'T our new normal.

https://i.gyazo.com/4749ea6af7bda3ff0cf9a9a3fa6a1046.png

^We are currently at 2028 according to the John Hopkins site. Date and number does match day 10. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR0WpqVnGavdZq2lJ2pEEl6MKqYXZP vUm0o29x8-HCF6BDlqLn8hdN61bs0#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The more tests and kits used, the high the numbers will go. I'm more interested in the number hospitalized.

https://theaircurrent.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Capacity_Reduction_Comparisons.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1239535655417307136/8I2dgUaB?format=jpg&name=medium

the bottom chart compares available seat miles relative to the base schedule that was published before cuts and how different scenarios will return those ASM's back into inventory. ASM's are a standard unit of measure of capacity for airlines.

A 50 seat airplane flying exactly 100 miles provides 5,000 ASM's of capacity, for example.

That second chart is brutal, especially given that in all likelihood, the "all clear" date is going to be much later than April 15th.

Dow is now down 1,400 and below 20,000.

I can't see any way this doesn't get a lot worse until we get on the backside of the infection curve.

Delta now parking 600 airplanes, up from the previous 300 of last week. Cutting domestic capacity by 70% from base schedule and 85% international.

Dow now down over 2,100 points today.

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

For once, I agree with you, but not sure what other options we have.

I posted this on the restaurant closing thread:

Everyone is focusing on restaurants and hotels, but virtually every small- and medium-sized business is going to be screwed if this goes for more than 2 months.

The best hope is for longer term SBA loans. I'm already in the queue. They are talking about up to $2 million amortized out up to 30 years at a low interest rate. That will be the key for many businesses being able to come out of this.

For once, I agree with you, but not sure what other options we have.

the ship to do something different i think has already sailed ....

what poeple need to understand is that the experts are not saying that what we are doing will stop anyone from getting this virus they are saying we will save some (unknown) number of lives because the hospitals wont get fully overrun ..

but if these experts are correct 1,000,000 + people are going to die from this .. anyway

and we will also have destroyed the economy and caused X amount of other deaths

this economic impact is and will be worse than the virus ... and in the end might not be worth it .

It won't be.

Should have let it spread like wildfire and be done in 4-6 weeks.

And before everyone slams me, I have a

Mom
Dad
Grandmother
Aunt
Uncle

all in that high risk category.

The depression that follows this won't be worth. For me or them.

Boomers man. They'll put the millennial generation through 2 massive economic contractions in 12 years with a 3rd on the way (debt crisis). Way to leave the country better than you found it.

WSJ op ed basicly said we should have sheltered the old and at risk and everyone else should have lived their lives ..

This is the tip of the economic iceberg. We're in inning 1. You've only lost some retirement funds. Go ahead and kiss that goodbye. You'll never retire.

-Ready for nationwide housing prices to fall 20-30% because everyone is out of a job?
-Ready for credit shortages? The student loan and personal unsecured loan defaults will be through the roof. That's 1.3 trillion. That'll go systemic. It's 3-6 months out, and what if the next point is true. You know like waiters and servers carry huge amounts of it. They're unemployed today thanks to government leadership.
-The Fed/US Treasury keeps firing $1 trillion bullets every month, and runs out of capacity
-Then comes massive asset deflation mixed with rampant inflation

Millions may have died, but in this scenario hundreds and hundreds of millions are going to suffer severely.

Then trump will probably suspend the election and we start teetering on a total breakdown of society.

This is the tip of the economic iceberg. We're in inning 1. You've only lost some retirement funds. Go ahead and kiss that goodbye. You'll never retire.

-Ready for nationwide housing prices to fall 20-30% because everyone is out of a job?
-Ready for credit shortages? The student loan and personal unsecured loan defaults will be through the roof. That's 1.3 trillion. That'll go systemic. It's 3-6 months out, and what if the next point is true. You know like waiters and servers carry huge amounts of it. They're unemployed today thanks to government leadership.
-The Fed/US Treasury keeps firing $1 trillion bullets every month, and runs out of capacity
-Then comes massive asset deflation mixed with rampant inflation

Millions may have died, but in this scenario hundreds and hundreds of millions are going to suffer severely.

Then trump will probably suspend the election and we start teetering on a total breakdown of society.

I would say "Do you need a push?" but you are already way off the ledge of negativity. We may as well all stop living to save our burden on society, right?

As long as we don't see some incredible spike in critical cases (and that has not been happening anywhere) I could see a scenario where we just take a "we have to get on with things" approach after a couple of months.

There is really no way our economy can survive a complete shut down for 6 months or more and that reality is starting to hit home.

So, hopefully we'll be able to make a responsible judgment in 30 to 60 days that yes, there are going to be cases, but our healthcare system can handle the most extreme cases so everyone needs to get back to work.

Hopefully.

I would say "Do you need a push?" but you are already way off the ledge of negativity. We may as well all stop living to save our burden on society, right?

he is not wrong a lot of that will likely happen

As long as we don't see some incredible spike in critical cases (and that has not been happening anywhere) I could see a scenario where we just take a "we have to get on with things" approach after a couple of months.

There is really no way our economy can survive a complete shut down for 6 months or more and that reality is starting to hit home.

So, hopefully we'll be able to make a responsible judgment in 30 to 60 days that yes, there are going to be cases, but our healthcare system can handle the most extreme cases so everyone needs to get back to work.

Hopefully.

The flatten the curve assessment was done by scientists, without any economic people getting to weigh in.

It's time reevaluate whether flatten the curve does the most good for the most people. This guy says 18 months to "flatten the curve entirely". In 18 months America will have collapsed.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

As long as we don't see some incredible spike in critical cases (and that has not been happening anywhere) I could see a scenario where we just take a "we have to get on with things" approach after a couple of months.

There is really no way our economy can survive a complete shut down for 6 months or more and that reality is starting to hit home.

So, hopefully we'll be able to make a responsible judgment in 30 to 60 days that yes, there are going to be cases, but our healthcare system can handle the most extreme cases so everyone needs to get back to work.

Hopefully.

Agreed Pete, but the government has to be seen as doing something. I will be interested to see what the government decides to do next month.

The flatten the curve assessment was done by scientists, without any economic people getting to weigh in.

This situation is completely unprecedented.

Fortunately, we live in the information age where we can monitor other countries and how the virus is progressing.

In the end, it's likely we'll come to the conclusion we just have to keep going and as long as we prioritize the most critical cases, there is every chance our hospitals won't become overwhelmed, which has always been the main concern.

Is cash king right now?

he is not wrong a lot of that will likely happen

I thought his numbers were still optimistic. The dollar is backed by a working population. We're not fooling anyone when at least half the country are out of work.

Is cash king right now?

i think yes i would not be in anything but very very select stocks and even those are risky the federal gov is going to back money market funds the same as cash for a long time so they should be ok

We will soon have to shift from "the sky is falling and everything must stop!" to "most people are getting mildly ill and just need bed rest and then we'll deal with the most critical cases as they arise".

Once the panic about overwhelming hospitals passes (and I think it soon will) then we can once again move forward and deal with the residual economic fallout.

This situation is completely unprecedented.

Fortunately, we live in the information age where we can monitor other countries and how the virus is progressing.

In the end, it's likely we'll come to the conclusion we just have to keep going and as long as we prioritize the most critical cases, there is every chance our hospitals won't become overwhelmed, which has always been the main concern.
We will have to think outside the box, there are still going to be a lot of people unemployed. They may not be healthcare professionals, but they dont need to know the entire medical encyclopedia. They will have to be taught covid treatment protocols.

Looking at the site below, of the current 7,800 cases or so in the U.S., only 12 are considered serious/critical.

I realize we are early on and that as the illness spreads and time passes, more people will move into the serious category.

But we also know the virus has been circulating in this country for weeks if not longer and we've yet to see anywhere near a huge number of severe cases.

I'll think we'll collectively get our minds around this, the economic consequences will become the biggest concern, and there will be great public support for going back to school and work.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

As long as we don't see some incredible spike in critical cases (and that has not been happening anywhere) I could see a scenario where we just take a "we have to get on with things" approach after a couple of months.

There is really no way our economy can survive a complete shut down for 6 months or more and that reality is starting to hit home.

So, hopefully we'll be able to make a responsible judgment in 30 to 60 days that yes, there are going to be cases, but our healthcare system can handle the most extreme cases so everyone needs to get back to work.

Hopefully.

I think the most important thing is slowing this down so our healthcare system can catch up a little bit. It is clear that the US has been woefully unprepared. letting this into the wild while our crisis response is in hibernation would be extremely risky since there is no herd immunity. Now that the supply chains for the healthcare industry are in overdrive, perhaps the risks can be better managed and slowly we can get society back up and running again soon.

It's very similar to wildfire strategy, it's not about putting the fire out, it's about slowing it down and containing it into area that can be managed or at least areas that are the least risky.

I think the most important thing is slowing this down so our healthcare system can catch up a little bit. It is clear that the US has been woefully unprepared. letting this into the wild while our crisis response is in hibernation would be extremely risky since there is no herd immunity. Now that the supply chains for the healthcare industry are in overdrive, perhaps the risks can be better managed and slowly we can get society back up and running again soon.

It's very similar to wildfire strategy, it's not about putting the fire out, it's about slowing it down and containing it into area that can be managed or at least are the least risky.

And really, that can be done by setting up drive-through testing stations and then focusing our healthcare resources on dealing with only critical cases.

Once we get there, we'll have a proven system and we can start to resume normalcy.

According to this site, the U.S. has over 6,000 hospitals:

https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Each of those have a lot of beds and staff.


That's a ton of capacity if we just focus those resources on the people who are in serious condition. Everyone else can just stay home.

I think the government is hoping and praying for a summer slowdown and they can use that time to plan for a winter wave.

Shutting the country down for 18 months is not a realist strategy. Sorry it's just not. There wont be a functioning government to bail anyone out.

Looking at the site below, of the current 7,800 cases or so in the U.S., only 12 are considered serious/critical.

I realize we are early on and that as the illness spreads and time passes, more people will move into the serious category.

But we also know the virus has been circulating in this country for weeks if not longer and we've yet to see anywhere near a huge number of severe cases.

I'll think we'll collectively get our minds around this, the economic consequences will become the biggest concern, and there will be great public support for going back to school and work.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Agree. After fear comes anger and the economic impact is way worse than China virus.

I hate to keep mentioning the flu but we lose 20,000-30,000 per year to flu and for the China virus to justify killing our economy would need to be 10 to 50 times worse. Also, a lot of the deaths were to people who may have succumbed to seasonal flu or other ailments. Not to downplay anyone who caught it but putting it in perspective.

As long as we don't seem some incredible spike in critical cases (and that has not been happening anywhere) I could see a scenario where we just take a "we have to get on with things" approach after a couple of months.

There is really no way our economy can survive a complete shut down for 6 months or more and that reality is starting to hit home.

So, hopefully we'll be able to make a responsible judgment in 30 to 60 days that yes, there are going to be cases, but our healthcare system can handle the most extreme cases so everyone needs to get back to work.

Hopefully.

99% have been people with prior or other health issues. In America that means fat. Should have taken better care of yourselves or do you want to ruin the generation's life for a decade beneath you. Given this is Boomers were dealing with the answer is yes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/99-25-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says/ar-BB11mr4X

This is the 2nd time in 12 years the boomers have done this.

1. Cease all hospital functions apart from dealing with people who are in serious condition (no elective surgeries, etc.)

2. Bring in healthcare workers to any hotspots, or transport cases to where there is capacity.

3. Provide drive-through testing stations so any concerned parties don't burden the hospital system.

4. Unless there is some huge spike in serious cases, get on with life.