View Full Version : Covid-19 in OKC (coronavirus)




chuck5815
07-03-2020, 12:27 PM
16212

Damn, that’s chump change. Should have made it $3,000 if they wanted compliance.

RustytheBailiff
07-03-2020, 03:39 PM
It's like watching a slow motion train crash but the conductors are too proud to hit the brakes

Not the conductors, the train company President had all the brakes removed.


STAY SAFE WEAR A MASK

Bill Robertson
07-03-2020, 04:47 PM
I don't see how the tripling of hospitalizations in the last three weeks isn't an indication that we won't be where Texas and Arizona are in short order. Do we have more hospitals per capita than those states?
I don’t get why we don’t roll back to at least a full Phase 2. But Texas really hasn’t done anything but close bars and limit restaurant capacity. Arizona has gone back to closer to what our Phase 2 was.
I was on the bass players forum today and there seem to be more people that believe since it’s not the top story on every single newscast that the crisis is over. And it isn’t on the news near as much as it was once. I stopped watching local news at all for awhile because everything was COVID, COVID and more COVID. Some newscasts now barely mention COVID other than the side effects like unemployment card issues. It’s like news is stuck on news cycles and they don’t know what to do with an ongoing story.

TheTravellers
07-03-2020, 05:29 PM
KOCO reporters' Twitter accounts and Oklahoma Source on Facebook are pretty good sources for this information.

Also found out about the FB group "Oklahoma City Masked and Unmasked" - incredible amount of info on which establishments are, literally, masked or unmasked. Braum's is getting slammed on there by folks and they say they couldn't afford masks for all their employees, just insane. Bet they found the money after the mandate went into effect today for OKC, and I'll also bet they don't mask up anywhere else except where they're forced to.

C_M_25
07-03-2020, 09:27 PM
It’s so hard to quantify how much masks really help; however, this may be about as close to a slap in the face for people to wake up as you’re going to get.

I’m sure there’s caveats and pitfalls to this dr’s experiment, but directionally, this is a pretty good illustration to how much masks can really help.

https://fox6now.com/2020/06/30/doctor-demonstrates-how-face-mask-blocks-respiratory-droplets-from-spreading/amp/

Bill Robertson
07-04-2020, 07:24 AM
Just left Homeland on Rockwell. Around 80% mask wearers. Double that of two weeks ago.

Pete
07-04-2020, 07:55 AM
54,000 new cases in the U.S. yesterday.

Florida, Arizona and Texas continue to rage.

Bill Robertson
07-04-2020, 09:03 AM
Oops

kukblue1
07-04-2020, 10:08 AM
Cases today 580. I figured they be low cause of the Holiday. How does the state song go? Your doing fine Oklahoma. Only our leaders are beveling that crap now

Pete
07-04-2020, 10:56 AM
580; almost another one-day record for Oklahoma.

Libbymin
07-04-2020, 11:13 AM
11,400 cases in Florida. Oof.

kukblue1
07-04-2020, 12:45 PM
It has mutated and have become much more easier to get. Thankfully they think it don't make you any sicker then before and we have gotten better with treatments but i'm not willing to take the chance of getting it. It's just to work and back again for me. I admit I let my guard down some in the past couple of week and hopefully I currently don't have it. No fever no cough and can smell things. They are also now saying smell is a better indication then a fever as you might not get a fever but you will most likely use your sense of smell

Ed Shadid
07-04-2020, 01:19 PM
It has mutated and have become much more easier to get. Thankfully they think it don't make you any sicker then before and we have gotten better with treatments but i'm not willing to take the chance of getting it. It's just to work and back again for me. I admit I let my guard down some in the past couple of week and hopefully I currently don't have it. No fever no cough and can smell things. They are also now saying smell is a better indication then a fever as you might not get a fever but you will most likely use your sense of smell

Very interesting. Almost 80% of Covid-19 patients have loss of smell using scratch and sniff tests, but only 40-50% of them realized it. Combining anosmia (loss of smell) with fever checks, and perhaps even pulse oximetry (oxygen level in the blood which can be checked with an inexpensive oximetry device which goes over a fingernail) would seemingly dramatically increase the odds of detecting infection rather than simply utilizing temperature screens.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/02/smell-tests-temperature-checks-covid19/

RustytheBailiff
07-04-2020, 01:33 PM
Very interesting. Almost 80% of Covid-19 patients have loss of smell using scratch and sniff tests, but only 40-50% of them realized it. Combining anosmia (loss of smell) with fever checks, and perhaps even pulse oximetry (oxygen level in the blood which can be checked with an inexpensive oximetry device which goes over a fingernail) would seemingly dramatically increase the odds of detecting infection rather than simply utilizing temperature screens.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/02/smell-tests-temperature-checks-covid19/

Yes, that is interesting. Should be incorporated by businesses to ensure the safety of their workers.

Is the loss of smell complete? Say could you sniff a bottle of ammonia without reacting? and is it safe to test with a bottle of ammonia?



STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS

soonerguru
07-04-2020, 02:05 PM
It has mutated and have become much more easier to get. Thankfully they think it don't make you any sicker then before and we have gotten better with treatments but i'm not willing to take the chance of getting it. It's just to work and back again for me. I admit I let my guard down some in the past couple of week and hopefully I currently don't have it. No fever no cough and can smell things. They are also now saying smell is a better indication then a fever as you might not get a fever but you will most likely use your sense of smell

No. It is not easier to get than it ever was, it’s just that Trump and numerous governors (including our own) just threw up their hands and stopped taking action. Also, people interpret this lack of action as evidence that the pandemic is behind us. This was always a dangerously contagious virus.

d-usa
07-04-2020, 02:24 PM
No. It is not easier to get than it ever was, it’s just that Trump and numerous governors (including our own) just threw up their hands and stopped taking action. Also, people interpret this lack of action as evidence that the pandemic is behind us. This was always a dangerously contagious virus.

The spike protein has mutated, and the majority of cases are the new variant. It infects easier, but the disease course hasn’t changed and the severity and mortality of the variants is the same.

OKC Talker
07-04-2020, 02:47 PM
The spike protein has mutated, and the majority of cases are the new variant. It infects easier, but the disease course hasn’t changed and the severity and mortality of the variants is the same.

Please be careful stating hypothesis as fact, it confuses people and makes them dismiss legitimate possibilities as "fake news" leading to situations like the one we're in now.

If in fact a mutation in the spike protein made COVID-19 more contagious, the theory is that it happened in Europe in February before it was spread in the United States so it's essentially irrelevant to us except to improve the scientific understanding of how the virus works.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/06/29/coronavirus-mutation-science/

d-usa
07-04-2020, 03:06 PM
It is relevant, because the mutation that happened in Europe is now the prevalent strain in the US. It has replaced the less infectious strain that was the predominant strain a few months ago.

Which can likely be a relevant factor for our increased numbers, which are not just a result of increased testing as we see a higher percentage of tests with positive results.

OKC Talker
07-04-2020, 03:14 PM
It is relevant, because the mutation that happened in Europe is now the prevalent strain in the US. It has replaced the less infectious strain that was the predominant strain a few months ago.

Which can likely be a relevant factor for our increased numbers, which are not just a result of increased testing as we see a higher percentage of tests with positive results.

The theory is that the virus from China spread to Europe where a mutation happened, and that virus is what spread across the world. Recent studies are showing that there weren't major outbreaks of the Asian version of the virus in the United States and from the beginning what we saw in the United States was the European virus. Unfortunately this doesn't fit the narrative of the "Kung Flu" that certain people want to spread though. It also doesn't cover up the "Second Wave" of cases like others want to explain away. This is all on us people. We're doing this to ouraelves and only we have the power to fix it.

SoonerDave
07-04-2020, 03:25 PM
It has mutated and have become much more easier to get. Thankfully they think it don't make you any sicker then before and we have gotten better with treatments but i'm not willing to take the chance of getting it. It's just to work and back again for me. I admit I let my guard down some in the past couple of week and hopefully I currently don't have it. No fever no cough and can smell things. They are also now saying smell is a better indication then a fever as you might not get a fever but you will most likely use your sense of smell

Was wondering where you'd seen this report? I'd read speculation that it might have mutated but nothing authoritative.

d-usa
07-04-2020, 03:45 PM
https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0092-8674%2820%2930820-5

kukblue1
07-04-2020, 04:08 PM
Was wondering where you'd seen this report? I'd read speculation that it might have mutated but nothing authoritative.

https://www.sciencealert.com/current-dominant-strain-of-covid-19-more-infectious-than-original-study

Just google covid 19 mutation.

Bill Robertson
07-04-2020, 04:53 PM
Yes, that is interesting. Should be incorporated by businesses to ensure the safety of their workers.

Is the loss of smell complete? Say could you sniff a bottle of ammonia without reacting? and is it safe to test with a bottle of ammonia?



STAY SAFE WEAR MASKS
The first day I felt something was going on was a Friday. The first Friday that all the restaurants had to do curbside only. I stopped on the way home and got my favorite thing in the world. Hideaway hand tossed ATW pizza and an inbetweener salad with extra Bleu Cheese. I ate a couple bites of the salad and one small slice of pizza. It tasted like cardboard. My wife said it was perfectly normal and she ate her share and made work lunches from mine. Sunday I went and picked up my second favorite thing. A Johnnies chili cheese burger and onion rings. Tasted like cardboard. My wife’s order she said was expectedly amazing. I tossed mine after a couple bites. I hardly ate anything for a week.

kukblue1
07-04-2020, 04:59 PM
You would think it would be easier to a smell and taste test in a bar with all the limes and lemons but would be trustworthy enough to tell you the truth that they can smell the lemon?

kukblue1
07-04-2020, 05:23 PM
I'm not sure what it is like around here but I'm seeing a lot of packed beaches all around the country and I mean packed. Do you think Oklahoma can hit 1,000 cases in a day?

d-usa
07-04-2020, 06:40 PM
I was the only person wearing a mask out of over a hundred people at our neighborhood kids parade. My kid was the only child wearing a mask while riding her bike.

C_M_25
07-04-2020, 06:52 PM
I was the only person wearing a mask out of over a hundred people at our neighborhood kids parade. My kid was the only child wearing a mask while riding her bike.

Our neighborhood had a kids parade today too. We didn’t take ours to participate. We got donuts instead. I saw pictures though and only saw one guy driving a golf cart with a mask. I wonder if it was you? If so, props to you man. There was a definite lack of masks today.

You guys talking about beaches being jam packed. Oklahoma beaches were packed full of people today. The entire beach at keystone lake was lined with boats, and they had a second row anchored just offshore behind them. It was a mess. I worry about our numbers 2 weeks from now...

Bill Robertson
07-04-2020, 06:56 PM
I'm not sure what it is like around here but I'm seeing a lot of packed beaches all around the country and I mean packed. Do you think Oklahoma can hit 1,000 cases in a day?
It’s somewhere between entirely possible and absolutely certain that we’ll see 1000 cases a day at some point since people still just don’t get it. Please don’t gloat and scream “I told you so” when it happens.

dankrutka
07-04-2020, 07:15 PM
Please be careful stating hypothesis as fact, it confuses people and makes them dismiss legitimate possibilities as "fake news" leading to situations like the one we're in now.

+1000. Can we have this posted as a pop up every time someone enters this thread?

dankrutka
07-04-2020, 07:20 PM
I'm not sure what it is like around here but I'm seeing a lot of packed beaches all around the country and I mean packed. Do you think Oklahoma can hit 1,000 cases in a day?

While it is disconcerting to see people not physically distancing, an outdoor beach is not the biggest concern. Some of these pictures floating around are from side angles that distort distance. While people should continue to distance and wear masks outdoors when near others, indoor spaces are the primary problem with some scientists hypothesizing that indoor activities are 20 times more likely to cause virus spread. I've decided to save my ire for indoor events.

kukblue1
07-04-2020, 10:35 PM
I drove home from work 11 p.m. tonight on July 4th and let me tell you the traffic was so bad. I don't even want to guess how many people were out tonight not social distancing. Close to a thousand cases is going to be a possibility. We went from about 200 250 a day 2 almost 600 if it doubles again we're at the Thousand mark

pw405
07-05-2020, 01:25 AM
I'm not sure what it is like around here but I'm seeing a lot of packed beaches all around the country and I mean packed. Do you think Oklahoma can hit 1,000 cases in a day?

Food for thought... with data through July 3rd, Texas' % positive test rate, averaged over 7 days, currently sits at 14.5%.

Currently, OK's rolling 7 day average % positive test rate is 5.1%. This is where Texas' % positive rate was at the beginning of June.

HOPEFULLY, we don't get anywhere close to a 14% positive rate, so let's be a bit conservative and assume a 12% positive rate. Applied to OK's total test count, that would give us these daily case counts:

June 30th - 1,845
July 1st - 563
July 2nd - 808
July 3rd -1,296

Truly horrifying is Arizona. Current rolling 7 day % average - 25.7%

If we assume a 25% positive rate for OK's tests, it gives us these daily case counts:

June 30th - 3,851
July 1st - 1,179
July 2nd - 1,684
July 3rd - 2,701

(Figures calculated with data from: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/usa) If you visit the website, you can mouse-over to see the hard numbers.

https://i.imgur.com/RzjEJLS.jpg

Thankfully, OK's rolling 7-day % positive rate has come down over the last 9 days. 5.1%. Our peak so far was 7.9% on June 24th (blue line).

As a reminder though.. things can change quickly. Looking at the entire US, you can clearly see the trouble with our reopening. The % positive rate (blue) was trending downwards throughout May and the start of June. The US reached a low of 4.4% positive rate on June 15th. Since then, we've never seen the % positive rate decrease.

https://i.imgur.com/OPVDAr5.jpg

If the US % positive rate gets to 10%, then we can expect to see daily case counts in the 70,000+ range.

pw405
07-05-2020, 01:39 AM
I drove home from work 11 p.m. tonight on July 4th and let me tell you the traffic was so bad. I don't even want to guess how many people were out tonight not social distancing. Close to a thousand cases is going to be a possibility. We went from about 200 250 a day 2 almost 600 if it doubles again we're at the Thousand mark

This is where I have great concern... literally every person I work with was still making plans for the July 4th as if Covid wasn't even around. With July 4th being on a Saturday, combined with record unemployment, combined with alcohol, and the desire to have a great time at least ONCE this year. I've got a bad feeling about what the data will reveal in the coming weeks.

C_M_25
07-05-2020, 07:05 AM
Two problems I see with our society and this virus:

1. Education levels and bad information. This has led to the belief by people that somehow, any regulation from the government will result in a permanent loss of their precious freedoms. People!! No regulation will be permanent!! We will not turn into a communist country!! Do what’s right so we can squash this thing!!

2. God awful leadership...at all levels. I’ve never seen so many levels of leadership “pass the buck” to the levels below them. It’s now down to store owners and people to decide if they want masks on their face or in their stores. Screw That!!! This is a pandemic. A public health emergency! Why won’t any of our leaders do what is right and mandate masks in public and limit group gatherings to 10 or less again?? Why does 45 insist there is no problem and that we’re handling it very well?? Maybe, we would have more compliance in all the states if we had national leaders who embraced science and bipartisanship. It’s unreal...we really are living in a time like idiocracy. All we need is an executive order to water our crops with Gatorade.

Pete
07-05-2020, 09:03 AM
The next few weeks are likely to be horrific after all these mass gatherings over the weekend and the general direction we've been headed for the last 2 months.

I am legitimately worried about our country.

kukblue1
07-05-2020, 09:29 AM
The next few weeks are likely to be horrific after all these mass gatherings over the weekend and the general direction we've been headed for the last 2 months.

I am legitimately worried about our country.

Tough action is going to be needed. Like a complete shut down. It happen in most of Europe at the beginning when it was manageable. I'm afraid after this weekend we might be to the point where it's going to require a mass shutdown. It's going to be hard for our leaders to do but if the hospitals are packed they won't have no choice. That is also another worry. They are going to start waiting until hospitals are over flowing and that will be bad.

Pete
07-05-2020, 09:55 AM
Just yesterday, our nation's top politician stated that 99% of the cases are 'harmless'.

Fully 4.5% of all people diagnosed with the disease have died and hundreds of thousands more have been hospitalized.


So, we are nowhere close to even recognizing the problem let alone dealing with it.

If this is allowed to rage on through the end of the year, and that certainly seems to be the case, we are going to be in deep poop all the way around.

Pete
07-05-2020, 10:01 AM
283 new cases per Sunday's report.

Ed Shadid
07-05-2020, 10:14 AM
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2020283?query=featured_coronavirus#article_r eferences

New England Journal of Medicine study indicates that people with Type A blood had a 45% higher risk of infection than those with other blood types and identified a “protective effect” in people with Type O blood; they were only two-thirds as likely to become infected. Blood type also seems to have a potential impact on severity of illness.

Incredibly, I don't know my blood type smh

Pete
07-05-2020, 10:18 AM
^

I don't know mine either and I've had blood drawn twice this year already.

You think they would include that on the basic panel info. sheet.

Norman Newbie
07-05-2020, 12:12 PM
283 new cases per Sunday's report.
I’ve been pleasantly surprised that the death rate in Oklahoma has held somewhat steady during this past month of increased cases. (Any loss of life is devastating, so I’m not glossing over the deadly nature of this pandemic.) I’m a bit surprised, too, that the majority of deaths continue to occur in the 65-plus group while the younger group responsible for the spikes are surviving this thing in large numbers...so far. We’ll see what the next few weeks hold. I’m hopeful that the death toll continues to hover where it is and that we won’t show exponential growth. Time will tell.

kukblue1
07-05-2020, 12:49 PM
283 new cases per Sunday's report.

Where there any stations not reporting though cause of the holiday. I would imagine tomorrow numbers will be low . The rest of the week will be thru the roof if they have a back log?

TheTravellers
07-05-2020, 02:32 PM
The next few weeks are likely to be horrific after all these mass gatherings over the weekend and the general direction we've been headed for the last 2 months.

I am legitimately worried about our country.

I can't understand why Holt's mask order was only for 2 weeks, it'll expire pretty much as the numbers are going to go through the roof because of 7/4 activities. Why not just make it for a month, does he also expect it to just go away magically?

Bill Robertson
07-05-2020, 02:40 PM
I can't understand why Holt's mask order was only for 2 weeks, it'll expire pretty much as the numbers are going to go through the roof because of 7/4 activities. Why not just make it for a month, does he also expect it to just go away magically?
Not even a month. Until ordered otherwise.

jonny d
07-05-2020, 02:50 PM
It would not surprise me if 2/3rds of the board has already had it. But I doubt that many have had serious, or even minor symptoms. If the virus is weaker, or if America has gotten better at treating it, then why not have more people get it when it is 100 outside than during flu season in October thru February? Again, every life lost is tragic, but we can't stay at home forever. A vaccine is not coming anytime soon, and when it does, it will be similar to the flu vaccine (I know how ineffective the flu vaccine can be - I have only gotten the flu once, which was the 1 year I got the vaccine). I would like to see a mask mandate, but the constant fear-mongering is not helping anyone.

Bash away! But I will do my part, and wear my mask and wash my hands often. But the constant bashing of those who don't get us nowhere.

kukblue1
07-05-2020, 03:15 PM
It would not surprise me if 2/3rds of the board has already had it. But I doubt that many have had serious, or even minor symptoms. If the virus is weaker, or if America has gotten better at treating it, then why not have more people get it when it is 100 outside than during flu season in October thru February? Again, every life lost is tragic, but we can't stay at home forever. A vaccine is not coming anytime soon, and when it does, it will be similar to the flu vaccine (I know how ineffective the flu vaccine can be - I have only gotten the flu once, which was the 1 year I got the vaccine). I would like to see a mask mandate, but the constant fear-mongering is not helping anyone.

Bash away! But I will do my part, and wear my mask and wash my hands often. But the constant bashing of those who don't get us nowhere.

We just don't know the long term effects of the virus or how long immunity last for. If it keeps mutating maybe it will become much weaker. So if we can slow the spread now and give more time to study it we will be much better off in the long run. Deaths are going down I think we were below 400 again yesterday nation wide. We could get that even lower or more people kept from getting sick and finding treatments for it. There are some drugs like Eidd-2801 that look very promising.

jonny d
07-05-2020, 03:20 PM
We just don't know the long term effects of the virus or how long immunity last for. If it keeps mutating maybe it will become much weaker. So if we can slow the spread now and give more time to study it we will be much better off in the long run. Deaths are going down I think we were below 400 again yesterday nation wide. We could get that even lower or more people kept from getting sick and finding treatments for it. There are some drugs like Eidd-2801 that look very promising.

I think it is getting weaker. It may spread easier, but it seems to be weaker. However, the virus could get worse, so if we can determine this is a weaker strain, then waiting til it mutates may not be a good thing. Again, I am not advocating for pox parties, just that the beating people over the head with piety for not wearing masks is not helpful, either.

catcherinthewry
07-05-2020, 03:23 PM
It would not surprise me if 2/3rds of the board has already had it. But I doubt that many have had serious, or even minor symptoms.

Cool. Jonny d says we have almost reached herd immunity levels (70% recovered). Guess we can all stop worrying in another week or two.

kukblue1
07-05-2020, 03:24 PM
I would like to add the biggest issue with this virus vs the flu is how long it takes before you show symptoms. They average is 5 plus days where the flu is 2 days. So when you get the flu you know it right away and think wow i'm sick i better stay home. You get this virus you could be spreading it for a week without even knowing it.

Pete
07-05-2020, 03:28 PM
beating people over the head with piety for not wearing masks is not helpful, either.

Actually, since all scientific evidence indicates that wearing a mask helps slow the spread (and conversely not wearing one facilitates the infection rate), then, yes, social pressure to wear face covering is by definition a very good thing.

catch22
07-05-2020, 03:52 PM
Actually, since all scientific evidence indicates that wearing a mask helps slow the spread (and conversely not wearing one facilitates the infection rate), then, yes, social pressure to wear face covering is by definition a very good thing.

I saw Social Capitol is offering $1 off every drink if you are wearing a mask when ordering, and to encourage that one step further they will give you a mask to wear. That might be the only way forward on this issue since Americans generally won't do anything unless they are given a discount or a free hat or toaster oven.

jdizzle
07-05-2020, 04:00 PM
Actually, since all scientific evidence indicates that wearing a mask helps slow the spread (and conversely not wearing one facilitates the infection rate), then, yes, social pressure to wear face covering is by definition a very good thing.

You will catch more flies with honey than vinegar...but what do I know.

Pete
07-05-2020, 04:03 PM
You will catch more flies with honey than vinegar...but what do I know.

The honey was appealing to common decency and concern for their fellow man.

OKC Talker
07-05-2020, 04:14 PM
The honey was appealing to common decency and concern for their fellow man.

^ I personally am sick and tired of pandering to those who are choosing to be willfully ignorant that they are the problem. If social pressure won't fix this, maybe we need to just start throwing them in jail.

Pete
07-05-2020, 04:16 PM
^ I personally am sick and tired of pandering to those who are choosing to be willfully ignorant that they are the problem. If social pressure won't fix this, maybe we need to just start throwing them in jail.

But that is not going to happen in this state or many states.

So public pressure still remains about the only recourse when you see fully half the population willing to make the smallest of altruistic acts.

jonny d
07-05-2020, 04:24 PM
The honey was appealing to common decency and concern for their fellow man.

Again, I am not advocating for what is happening in this state. I just know that, in my experience recently, mask-shaming works about as well as the American justice system - not well at all.

kukblue1
07-05-2020, 04:51 PM
But that is not going to happen in this state or many states.

So public pressure still remains about the only recourse when you see fully half the population willing to make the smallest of altruistic acts.

No someone in one of these states needs to get a pair of balls and just shut things down for 2-3 weeks. People will bitch and moan and be in an uproar in which they leaders needs to say we tried telling you to wear mask and it didn't work so this is the next step. DEAL WITH IT. Never happen though but it needs too.

jdizzle
07-05-2020, 05:25 PM
No someone in one of these states needs to get a pair of balls and just shut things down for 2-3 weeks. People will bitch and moan and be in an uproar in which they leaders needs to say we tried telling you to wear mask and it didn't work so this is the next step. DEAL WITH IT. Never happen though but it needs too.

Screw people who gave finally come back to work, right? They don't matter much.

PoliSciGuy
07-05-2020, 06:04 PM
Screw people who gave finally come back to work, right? They don't matter much.

Was this supposed to be English?

kukblue1
07-05-2020, 06:04 PM
Screw people who gave finally come back to work, right? They don't matter much.

If Hospitals start to over flow and more and more people start seeing someone struggling with this virus how many people do you think will want to go out to eat or back to the office or out to shop? If it gets bad enough the economy is going to tank even more so than a 2 week shut down.