View Full Version : General Weather Discussion - May 2019



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Anonymous.
05-01-2019, 09:18 PM
A small round of storms expected to develop across W and NW OK by morning. May clip the OKC metro from the west. Otherwise, mostly an event for SW and S OK from the looks of it. However, storms will ride outflow boundaries and predicting where they develop and how far is nearly impossible.

After that we will have a break until likely late Friday night we have another round come up from NW TX and impact the state.

Looking even further out we will have some chances of more storms Sunday night and looks like again early next week.

OkiePoke
05-02-2019, 10:02 AM
Some forecasts are showing storms Friday morning, would you agree with that?

Anonymous.
05-02-2019, 03:16 PM
Yes for C OK, we should see spotty showers and storms develop right around sunrise. Then likely a break in the action until later when a larger cluster organizes across W/NW OK and slides to the SE in the afternoon. Exact timing of everything could shift by hours depending on when storms actually initiate.

Anonymous.
05-03-2019, 10:04 AM
Line of storms in N/NW OK is slowly building east. We will see development of showers and storms ahead of this complex as we head into the afternoon hours. Eventually everything will sweep off to the SE as we head into the evening. Heavy rain and flash flooding is the main threat.

Timshel
05-03-2019, 10:30 AM
Any guestimate as to when the rain will be over? Lyric Theater is having an outdoor event in the boathouse district (which everyone should go to! http://broadwayandbrew.com/) this evening and I'm hoping the rain won't cause serious issues.

Anonymous.
05-03-2019, 10:59 AM
Any guestimate as to when the rain will be over? Lyric Theater is having an outdoor event in the boathouse district (which everyone should go to! http://broadwayandbrew.com/) this evening and I'm hoping the rain won't cause serious issues.

My guess is for C OK majority of rain is over by 6-7pm.

C_M_25
05-04-2019, 11:37 AM
Any news on Sunday? Last I heard, there was a small chance for large storms. Any new data coming in suggesting otherwise?

SEMIweather
05-04-2019, 04:00 PM
Any news on Sunday? Last I heard, there was a small chance for large storms. Any new data coming in suggesting otherwise?

The main storm threat tomorrow should be in Western OK. There may be some morning storms in the OKC area but I wouldn't expect them to be severe.

Wednesday is looking like the biggest severe weather threat for the Metro at this time, but it's still several days out so all can change.

Bunty
05-05-2019, 09:03 PM
Severe thunderstorm watch 137 is in effect until 400 am cdt
Counties affected: Beckham; Caddo; Canadian; Cleveland; Creek; Grady; Greer; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; McClain; Nowata; Okfuskee; Oklahoma; Okmulgee; Osage; Pawnee; Payne; Pottawatomie; Rogers; Seminole; Tulsa; Washington; Was hita

Areas affect in dark pink:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

https://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

Anonymous.
05-05-2019, 09:29 PM
Storms approaching C OK now. Likely will be severe by the time they impact OKC from the W and NW. Heavy rain is main threat. Perhaps some small hail, but damaging hail is unlikely.

jn1780
05-06-2019, 07:11 AM
Still three days out, a more classic dryline type of event Wednesday. SPC mentioned higher probabilities may be needed.

http://www.weather.gov/images/oun/graphicast/image7.png?c184a8ed6b0de7c8f3a3226463707c5b

Anonymous.
05-06-2019, 12:40 PM
We should see some storms pop up this Monday afternoon across SW KS and in toward the Panhandle area. At this time, it looks like these will form a line and move across NW OK and into S KS. However, we could see some southern-edge back-build that brings additional areas under the gun. Will monitor.

Tuesday looks like severe storms will develop out in the pandhandle and form a squall line as it enters W OK. Storms will begin to dissipate as it will be well after dark before storm chances reach C OK.

Wednesday will be determined based on Tuesday night's storms. But at this time we may see development just west of C OK along the I-35 corridor. Full storm maturity may be achieved by the time any supercells are entering the OKC area. This will likely be a 'Moderate' risk day for a decent portion of OK. Large hail will be primary threat, with tornado threat accompanying any discreet cells that develop off the dryline.

Easy180
05-07-2019, 09:38 AM
NWS currently going with Slight risk and very low tornado potential for Wednesday.

Bunty
05-07-2019, 10:34 AM
FLOOD WATCH--Does not include Oklahoma City:

Details: ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of
central Oklahoma, northern Oklahoma, northwest Oklahoma, and
western Oklahoma, including the following areas, in central
Oklahoma, Kingfisher, Logan, and Payne. In northern Oklahoma,
Garfield, Grant, Kay, and Noble. In northwest Oklahoma,
Alfalfa, Blaine, Dewey, Ellis, Harper, Major, Woods, and
Woodward. In western Oklahoma, Custer and Roger Mills.
* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning
* Rainfall amounts of two inches or more are possible. This
rainfall on top of the already wet soils will lead to runoff and
flooding, especially of low lying and poorly drained areas.
* Do not drive through flooding roadways. This is especially
dangerous at night.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Area covered in green:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Anonymous.
05-07-2019, 03:08 PM
Severe weather ongoing out in the panhandles currently as forecast. These should form a line and push east as we head into the evening. The storms may very well begin to lose steam as they approach C OK around midnight. However, could still be severe - especially with wind gusts from any bow echo portions of the cluster.

As of now, it looks like the speed of the low's movement will actually increase, thus not giving the atmosphere plentiful time early Wednesday to be favorable for development of severe storms in C OK. So as of now, SPC will maintain a slight risk for Wednesday, but we may not see any storm development at all. The dryline is forecast to move from W OK through C OK sometime early evening, which will be the focal point of any development Wednesday afternoon. So just stay updated, but as of right now it does not look likely.


Snapshot of storms coming in late Tuesday night:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019050718/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_12.png

Anonymous.
05-07-2019, 08:00 PM
Ahead of the line, we have storms bubbling up randomly here in C OK. Atmosphere has a lot of lift right now so little organization or direction with these. At this time not severe, but strongest cell currently moving S to N thru western parts of Norman. We will have to watch for discrete cells that begin rotating. Large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible with any dominant storms.

Tornado Watch likely coming in the next hour for all of C OK.

Storm-spin parameters are pretty ideal right now across the area.

Bunty
05-07-2019, 08:25 PM
TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES OKC METRO

Updated: Tue May-07-19 09:11pm CDT
Effective: Tue May-07-19 09:15pm CDT
Expires: Wed May-08-19 05:00am CDT

Severity: Severe
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Beckham; Blaine; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Comanche; Cotton; Creek; Custer; Dewey; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Greer; Harmon; Jackson; Jefferson; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Major; McClain; Murray; Noble; Nowata; Okfuskee; Oklahoma; Osage; Pawnee; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Tillman; Washington; Was hita

Counties in yellow affected:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Anonymous.
05-07-2019, 08:43 PM
I would say we can check if venture's chat is running for easier information sharing, but I cannot even remember the URL. weather spotlight or something like that?

EDIT: found the old link, looks like it is no longer a valid domain.

Anonymous.
05-07-2019, 08:48 PM
Storm cell west of Norman and east of Newcastle is exploding upward right now. Hail signatures coming up.

Cell NW of Carnegie also coming up decently.


9:53pm EDIT: Cell coming into Moore and out of Newcastle/Nroman area is now severe warned. Right now it is looking like the healthiest cell ahead of the cluster.

Bobby821
05-07-2019, 09:03 PM
Here is the correct URL for his site: http://www.wxstuff.com/index.php?r=dashboard%2Fdashboard

Anonymous.
05-07-2019, 09:06 PM
Here is the correct URL for his site: http://www.wxstuff.com/index.php?r=dashboard%2Fdashboard

Oh nice! Good find. Here is the link to the chatroom if anyone wants to chat, we won't have control over the screen-streaming, but better than posting in the forum.

https://chatroll.com/embed/chat/wxstuff-live-chat?name=wxstuff-live-chat

SEMIweather
05-07-2019, 09:38 PM
Nice downpour at my place a few miles north of Downtown. No hail, not too much lightning.

OKC Guy
05-07-2019, 09:41 PM
Nice downpour at my place a few miles north of Downtown. No hail, not too much lightning.

Cool site shows lightening strikes. Click on Texas and it covers Oklahoma too

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=31

Anonymous.
05-07-2019, 09:50 PM
Northern half of the line of storm is gusting out ahead of itself. This will accelerate the arrival of storms for roughly the northern half of I-35 corridor. And the southern edge will lag behind some. Cluster likely to take on a backwards S shape and move east as one unit.

This will result in the most severe portion of the cluster being the southern half. I would say from Norman and south will be the more dangerous parts of the line.

Flash flooding and initial gust front will be the main threat. Small tornado spinups are possible ahead and just in front of the line, but like I mentioned - SC OK will be the main focus.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019050800/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_11.png

OKC Guy
05-07-2019, 10:48 PM
News9 Val Caster has live footage of tornado north of Hobart and now 10 miles north nw of it now heading to Cordell

Wow, 2 of them on ground a mile away from each other

Anonymous.
05-07-2019, 10:55 PM
Yes, I am still updating the chatroom, not many people are awake it seems.

Tornado Emergency issued for Cordell area. For reference, there has only been 8 of these issued in the USA in the last 3 years.

Anonymous.
05-07-2019, 11:56 PM
Storms coming into metro now are not severe. Just some thunder and heavy rain. Initial gust front could be upwards of 30mph, but even that is dissipating relatively quick here around 1am.

As mentioned earlier, main focus for severe threat will be just S of the metro and points to the west where unstable conditions still exist.

Quicker
05-08-2019, 02:10 AM
I went to the Killers concert tonight at the Zoo Amp. I’d been watching the forecast the last few days not wanting to get caught in bad weather and bought tickets this afternoon believing it wasn’t going to hit before midnight. I guess people were spooked because I found VIP tickets online that had face value with fees of $100 a ticket for $65 bucks apiece...

At about 10pm, halfway through the Killers set, it just started pouring... It was really an excellent concert and nobody seemed to care or were leaving, we were all just having a great time and dancing in the rain. It actually made it just that much more fun...

I’m really happy I went :)

OKCbyTRANSFER
05-08-2019, 03:38 AM
I went to the Killers concert tonight at the Zoo Amp. I’d been watching the forecast the last few days not wanting to get caught in bad weather and bought tickets this afternoon believing it wasn’t going to hit before midnight. I guess people were spooked because I found VIP tickets online that had face value with fees of $100 a ticket for $65 bucks apiece...

At about 10pm, halfway through the Killers set, it just started pouring... It was really an excellent concert and nobody seemed to care or were leaving, we were all just having a great time and dancing in the rain. It actually made it just that much more fun...

I’m really happy I went :)
News channels mentioned the concert several times as the storm rolled in. Main concern was hail and the lightening, with the possibility of getting a few thousand people out of there. *Glad you enjoyed it*

Anonymous.
05-08-2019, 07:21 AM
SPC has dropped the Slight risk for majority of OK this morning. Current rain and overcast will prevent any major destabilization.

However, HRRR model shows clouds eroding quickly later this morning across W OK that could lead to 1-2 isolated supercells to develop if everything pans out just right. Will have to watch the trends all day.

okatty
05-08-2019, 08:25 AM
I went to the Killers concert tonight at the Zoo Amp. I’d been watching the forecast the last few days not wanting to get caught in bad weather and bought tickets this afternoon believing it wasn’t going to hit before midnight. I guess people were spooked because I found VIP tickets online that had face value with fees of $100 a ticket for $65 bucks apiece...

At about 10pm, halfway through the Killers set, it just started pouring... It was really an excellent concert and nobody seemed to care or were leaving, we were all just having a great time and dancing in the rain. It actually made it just that much more fun...

I’m really happy I went :)

KOCO was covering this and talking about it a lot - they seemed to think they should have issued a warning from the stage for people to leave due to potential for severity. Sounds like all was well and lots of fun!

OKCretro
05-08-2019, 09:40 AM
does anyone have the state map of oklahoma with the rainfall totals for the year?

Anonymous.
05-08-2019, 09:57 AM
This is where we are at so far:

http://climate.ok.gov/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/drought/caltot.png

jedicurt
05-08-2019, 10:00 AM
http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/category/rainfall

they don't have just for this year. but they do have 30 day, 60 day, 90 day, etc

midtownokcer
05-08-2019, 10:14 AM
I went to the Killers concert tonight at the Zoo Amp. I’d been watching the forecast the last few days not wanting to get caught in bad weather and bought tickets this afternoon believing it wasn’t going to hit before midnight. I guess people were spooked because I found VIP tickets online that had face value with fees of $100 a ticket for $65 bucks apiece...

At about 10pm, halfway through the Killers set, it just started pouring... It was really an excellent concert and nobody seemed to care or were leaving, we were all just having a great time and dancing in the rain. It actually made it just that much more fun...

I’m really happy I went :)

I was there as well. The skies opening up certainly made it more memorable during the last few songs. The crowd went absolutely nuts during "When You Were Young." I got a rash of texts from friends telling me that I needed to take cover (another joked that it was Mike Morgan being his usual self), but at that point it was really just a steady rain before absolutely raining cats and dogs. And of course, just 5-10 minutes after the show, it stopped.

jn1780
05-08-2019, 10:29 AM
The storm in OKC was initially trying to ramp up a bit before weakening. So that's why they made a big deal about the people at the Killers concert. It wouldn't have been the first time to see small quick night tornadoes out of a storm.

I was switching between Mick an Damon last night and seems like Damon Lane was hyping up the storm more last night. Morgan was basically saying some levels of mid-level rotation, "No big deal". While Lane seem sure it was going to ramp up and produce a tornado at any moment.

kukblue1
05-08-2019, 10:33 AM
The storm in OKC was initially trying to ramp up a bit before weakening. So that's why they made a big deal about the people at the Killers concert. It wouldn't have been the first time to see small quick night tornadoes out of a storm.

The zoo amp got lucky. The storm was really ramping up near New Castle and was rotating with a hook at one time weaken when it got near downtown.

baralheia
05-08-2019, 10:45 AM
Between that first isolated cell that moved over the Metro and the the rest of the rain that followed after midnight, my place 4 miles east of the airport picked up 2.63" of rain.

Bunty
05-08-2019, 12:14 PM
A look at how much it rained in the OKC area as of 1pm, May 8. Source: wunderground.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/okcrainmay8.png

Bobby821
05-09-2019, 03:55 PM
It is looking like we will be getting back into the severe weather mode starting next weekend or so...

bchris02
05-09-2019, 04:59 PM
It is looking like we will be getting back into the severe weather mode starting next weekend or so...

It's impossible to know how things will set up until around 48 hours beforehand.

Bobby821
05-09-2019, 07:27 PM
It's impossible to know how things will set up until around 48 hours beforehand.

Not with future weather. Tornadoes and such yes but not with weather patterns..

jn1780
05-09-2019, 08:05 PM
Not with future weather. Tornadoes and such yes but not with weather patterns..

Weather patterns shown 10+ days on models can all of the sudden disappear also. As of right now it looks like the last two weeks of May could be more active. No details of any kind can be predicted though.

Anonymous.
05-10-2019, 02:09 PM
Rain is moving up into SW OK now, should be hitting C OK toward 11pm. Cold rain, maybe some thunder, but nothing severe.

Temperatures will struggle for Saturday, but if the sun can come out, we could hit upper 60s. Sunday and heading into next week looks great.

okatty
05-11-2019, 08:00 AM
Whoever made the call to move OU graduation inside Lloyd Noble last night - good job. Was raining by the end and would have been a miserable mess outside.

BG918
05-11-2019, 08:24 PM
Keystone Dam is currently releasing 75k cfs and will go to 85k on Monday, the largest release in 26 years. Downstream locations in Sand Springs, Tulsa and Jenks are bracing for possible flooding in low areas.

BG918
05-12-2019, 02:17 PM
Get ready, the OK severe weather hype machine will be in full effect this week for next weekend’s storm system. Reed Timmer is already calling this one of the more active periods this generation will remember.

jn1780
05-12-2019, 02:35 PM
Get ready, the OK severe weather hype machine will be in full effect this week for next weekend’s storm system. Reed Timmer is already calling this one of the more active periods this generation will remember.

Lol I wonder what he defines as a generation? It does look more active and things will probably get bumpy at least 1 or 2 times next week as any kind of setup in late May usually does. Have to keep I'm mind that not all the severe weather days that chasers are looking at are going to take place in central Oklahoma.

Anonymous.
05-13-2019, 07:29 AM
SPC has 15% probabilities indicated on both Friday and Saturday. Friday is panhandle into western OK (possible MCS coming into C OK late). Saturday is the same, but pushed further east.

At this time, both days appear to be dryline supercells developing that may eventually turn into squall lines and push off to the east.


Also looking past this weekend, it appears there is potentially additional severe weather setups mid-week.

Bunty
05-13-2019, 07:05 PM
Hail in Stillwater Tues. evening around 7:30. Mostly pea to marble size with some a little bigger. Fortunately hail didn't get bigger. 62" rain, so far. The storm formed from overhead to the west side of the county and moved SE.

https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/hailinstillwater.JPG

Easy180
05-13-2019, 07:42 PM
SPC has 15% probabilities indicated on both Friday and Saturday. Friday is panhandle into western OK (possible MCS coming into C OK late). Saturday is the same, but pushed further east.

At this time, both days appear to be dryline supercells developing that may eventually turn into squall lines and push off to the east.


Also looking past this weekend, it appears there is potentially additional severe weather setups mid-week.

Craft beer fest Sat night. Should I be rooting for Saturday morning storms to help my odds of being drunk by 9PM?

jn1780
05-14-2019, 05:14 AM
Looks like it will be getting busy starting Friday. SPC had several days outlined this morning.

SEMIweather
05-14-2019, 06:23 AM
This has the potential to be our most active severe weather period in years.

jn1780
05-14-2019, 06:52 AM
This has the potential to be our most active severe weather period in years.

More active than past two years at the very least. Its hard to take a forecast seriously 6 days out, but Monday and Tuesday look especially big. Still need to get past Friday and Saturday first though.

Anonymous.
05-14-2019, 07:29 AM
SPC has added a 30% probability on Day 4 (TX PH and far W OK). This will likely show up as moderate risk in the initial 3-day batch that we will see tomorrow.

SPC is also outlining 15% probabilities now for the following week that I mentioned yesterday. There is two distinct days of sharp dryline showing up consistently. SPC placing 15% risks on the 7 and 8 day outlooks is relatively rare. Confidence is decent a week out from the event.

bchris02
05-14-2019, 09:17 AM
Craft beer fest Sat night. Should I be rooting for Saturday morning storms to help my odds of being drunk by 9PM?

I wouldn't really make any plans for Saturday evening at this point in time. This has high potential to be one of "those" days for OKC. Next Tuesday as well.

jn1780
05-14-2019, 09:39 AM
I wouldn't really make any plans for Saturday evening at this point in time. This has high potential to be one of "those" days for OKC. Next Tuesday as well.

I don't think anyone has to cancel plans. Just stay weather aware and get indoors when you need to.

FighttheGoodFight
05-14-2019, 09:40 AM
I don't think anyone has to cancel plans. Just stay weather aware and get indoors when you need to.

Ya I am just parking in a parking garage. No changing plans other than that.

jn1780
05-14-2019, 09:46 AM
Hard to gauge tornado threat this far out. but, you can bet the flooding risk is high with all this rain we have been receiving this year.

John1744
05-14-2019, 10:30 AM
The stormchasers discord hasn't been this excited in years. To me that's usually a bad sign for weather lol.