15% or greater chance of severe weather from W to C OK on Wednesday. SPC has outlined this risk on the Day 4 outlook. Classic dryline setup in the making.

At this time, it does appear tornado potential will be in play.

Severe threat for Wednesday has mostly pushed into extreme W OK with any late afternoon storms that develop. The threat out west will be for large hail and maybe an isolated tornado. Otherwise, it appears the cap will be too strong and keep any widespread development from occurring. C OK could still see some storms after dark that come in from the NW, the main threat with these will be damaging wind.

Will update tomorrow afternoon for any changes.

Supercells have developed out in the TX PH. These will march eastward into W OK. Large hail and outside shot at tornado are main threat for anyone out in far W OK.

These Panhandle storms will eventually die out after crossing into W OK heading into dark. Then we will see later development to the NW associated with the cold front. Impacts into C OK from the NW will be around 9-10pm from the looks of it. Below is a snapshot of forecast after dark. Strong winds and some hail with the taller storms will be the main threat with these. Models do indicate potential for storm-training over a localized area from NW/W OK into C OK. Could see some flash flooding in a small area.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019040320/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_10.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019040320/hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png

Storms are moving through W OK now. Impact into C OK will be closer to midnight timeframe. Heavy rain and some gusty winds will be primary threat.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019040401/hrrr_apcpn_scus_9.png

Anon, thank you for your updates and information. They're very much appreciated!

Anon, thank you for your updates and information. They're very much appreciated!

Of course!


Wrap-around development occurring across N Edmond and points north. This will be short-lived this morning.

Next shot at storms is very late Friday night into Saturday. Right now, it doesn't appear significant severe weather is likely, but will keep an eye on it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019040406/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_60.png

How is Sunday looking?

Val and Amy Castor had a run in with baseball-sized hail near Hollis yesterday. Doesn't sound like a fun way to spend a Wednesday.

As of now, does it look like Saturday is a washout? Hopefully it'll wait till later in the day and the morning will be fine.

My place in south OKC picked up about half an inch from last night's storms. Most of the state is below average for rainfall for the past 90 days so it's good that we got a decent drink overnight. http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/drought/last_90_days/drought_wildfire

As of now, does it look like Saturday is a washout? Hopefully it'll wait till later in the day and the morning will be fine.

Right now, I think it's more likely that Saturday Morning will be a washout, with things tapering off in the afternoon.

Forecast is turning out to be very strange for C OK.

Tonight we will see storms develop across W and NW TX and move NE toward OK. These are predicted to die out shortly after crossing the border down in extreme SW OK before the early Saturday AM hours. We will see an additional cluster form behind it and move across the same path and this one is also forecasted to die out, but may just barely make it to C OK by early Saturday evening.

After that there is a chance, Sunday evening, we see a thin line of pop-up style thunderstorms across a boundary develop along the I-44 corridor, but confidence is low in this occurring. SW, S, and SE OK by far have the highest chances of seeing rain storms. C OK's best shot will be with the cluster attempting to come in Saturday evening.

It is very possible that C OK may not see any rain this weekend. Like I always say, check the radar before going out for any outdoor activities. Don't let a forecast prevent you from missing out on our first really warm weekend in a while!

Does anyone know what happened to the Interactive ESP radar that was available on channel 9's website in OKC and Channel 6 in Tulsa? That radar was, far and away, the most user-friendly online radar for Oklahoma City. I know it probably cost some bucks and they didn't want to license it any longer. Or, was it built for use by Griffin stations and they quit using it for some other reason? I'm baffled. It was where you could zoom in on your block if you wanted, had tracking for hail and hail sizes, it offered so much more than what they have now. Channels 4 and 5 both use open source software to merge with their own radar that has some of the same capabilities, but there's no comparison to the old ESP Interactive.

Anyone know what's up with the demise of ESP?

^^^ I'd like to know also where it went ?

Seems like we're clearing out well enough behind the decaying complex that moved through a little while ago to allow for some level of redevelopment later this afternoon.

Yep wrap around wave getting going across W/SW OK. Likely will spark another cluster of storms. These will also move through very quick.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely coming for all of C OK. Rapid destablization taking place behind the dead MCS.

Large hail will be main threat. Storms will be fast moving.

There doesnt appear to be enough energy to keep things going.

Storms are really, really struggling at the moment.

Yea looks like evening outdoor plans are greenlight. Tops of towers getting blown off.

I’m glad because I wanted to see the FInal 4 and not David Payne.:)

While I will root for storm busts for all next 2 months long, if we could just get into the mid 90's with some persistent ridging we wouldn't even have to worry about storms. I would pay huge $$$ for that.

Does anyone know what happened to the Interactive ESP radar that was available on channel 9's website in OKC and Channel 6 in Tulsa? That radar was, far and away, the most user-friendly online radar for Oklahoma City. I know it probably cost some bucks and they didn't want to license it any longer. Or, was it built for use by Griffin stations and they quit using it for some other reason? I'm baffled. It was where you could zoom in on your block if you wanted, had tracking for hail and hail sizes, it offered so much more than what they have now. Channels 4 and 5 both use open source software to merge with their own radar that has some of the same capabilities, but there's no comparison to the old ESP Interactive.

Anyone know what's up with the demise of ESP?

They appear to have partnered very aggressively with Baron Weather (https://www.baronweather.com/) they had tinkered with some of their tech over the last few years, but that massive radar they built last year seems to have been developed by Baron (Who also rolled out the NWS dual polarization tech). And it seems the partnership just continues to grow which is why you see them using things like hail swath product and other buzzwordy tech on their newscasts. It seems Baron even rebuilt the News9 Weather app recently. So I'm going to assume they have some exclusivity clause with Baron to only use Baron tech on their sites which is why ESP went away.

If you have an iPhone I can't recommend RadarScope enough, if you can mostly read a radar it's about one of the most powerful tools you can get at a very affordable price. I believe they have a Windows desktop program now as well.

Okay, the sun is out!!!! And according to mesonet no storm chances till next weekend. If we could JUST get to those mid 90's! #NostormsinOCKthisspring!

Warm, No Storms Wednesday, a Freeze, and then Snow? by Aaron Tuttle
http://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/04/07/warm-no-storms-wednesday-a-freeze-and-then-snow/?fbclid=IwAR00VY0nwdZ9YZ-Njfta3-C5KwiudIVMPN4IpKQ8PqNO1SjniAr1Ec0xxMY

Warm, No Storms Wednesday, a Freeze, and then Snow? by Aaron Tuttle
http://aarontuttleweather.com/2019/04/07/warm-no-storms-wednesday-a-freeze-and-then-snow/?fbclid=IwAR00VY0nwdZ9YZ-Njfta3-C5KwiudIVMPN4IpKQ8PqNO1SjniAr1Ec0xxMY

He mentions the lack of moisture from the gulf so far several times in that article. It seems like that was an issue last spring as well. In fact, I wonder if this is part of a bigger shift in our weather patterns. We’ll see what May brings though. That is our most active time, but it has been a little frustrating that winter won’t turn loose of its grip around here. It has pretty big impacts on crops and the economies of the rural areas of our state.

He mentions the lack of moisture from the gulf so far several times in that article. It seems like that was an issue last spring as well. In fact, I wonder if this is part of a bigger shift in our weather patterns. We’ll see what May brings though. That is our most active time, but it has been a little frustrating that winter won’t turn loose of its grip around here. It has pretty big impacts on crops and the economies of the rural areas of our state.

I know so little about meterology but it does seem to me that the wet area this time of year has been shifting further east over the last decade or two. But that may just be me. I sure haven't seen any mets bring it up or anything. But it seems the frequent storms of my child hood tend to happen more over Arkansas and Alabama lately.

Funny he didn't mention the low that just crossed Texas and is now pushing into the SE kind of messing up the gulf pipeline. Just not enough time to get it going again before the next storm comes in.

Moisture recovery from the Gulf is always an issue this time of year. Just more of an issue these past few years it seems like. One of the reasons that May is more active is because the Gulf recharges faster after a cold front gets that far down south. This year is looking like more of the same where if we do get active weather it will be mid to late May.

I know so little about meterology but it does seem to me that the wet area this time of year has been shifting further east over the last decade or two. But that may just be me. I sure haven't seen any mets bring it up or anything. But it seems the frequent storms of my child hood tend to happen more over Arkansas and Alabama lately.

There is a lot of evidence that the edge of the Plains is moving further east toward the 99th Meridian. Here is an interesting article: https://www.earthmagazine.org/article/dividing-line-past-present-and-future-100th-meridian
https://www.earthmagazine.org/sites/earthmagazine.org/files/2018-01/Cantner_100thMeridianMap.png

So does the next week or so look to be the last hurrah for winter this year?

Looks like Severe weather may be in store for next Tuesday 4-16/Wednesday 4-17 time frame. All modes appear possible at this time.

Extreme fire danger across the western half of the state today. Strong southerly winds will shift to come out of the W/NW overnight, rushing in cooler air. Thursday will be breezy with highs in the 50s. Friday will be nice with highs in the 60s and light winds. This is ahead of the next storm which will pretty much ruin Saturday outdoor time for the entire state. Rain will move in from the SW with temperatures in the 40s for majority of the state. Could see some heavy wet snow mix in in areas in W and NW OK.

After this weekend, we rebound back into Spring with nice weather. Next storm impact showing up around Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.

Rain chances start increasing for C OK by late morning into lunchtime Saturday. It will be a cold and miserable day across nearly the entire state. Temperatures will fall with the rain and may sneak some local areas down near 33-34 where wet snowflakes could fall. No accumulation, but would be interesting to see, at least. After Saturday is ruined, Sunday recovers to around 60F for C OK and Monday we are right back in the 70s.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019041206/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_45.png

Totally thought my Apple Watch was calling me out this morning! (But then I realized it was just sending me an air quality alert)
15239

I-35 is shut down in both directions in Moore due to wind damage to the 34th Street bridge that's under construction.

It has been raining medium to hard in NW OKC since 2pm, and still is. The NOAA rain fallen shows over 3” but I bet its closer to 3.5 to 4. Luckily mowed my yard yesterday.

Looks like most of Oklahoma received a good 1-2+ inches out of this weekend storm with the stark exception of NW OK which didn’t get anything.

I'm 4 miles due east of the airport and I show 2.15" of rain on my weather station. That was a good soaking, but I'm glad we didn't get any heavier rain; the ground was pretty well saturated by the afternoon and that could have turned into a flood situation pretty quickly.

Storm coming through on Wednesday looks like it will produce severe weather in parts of the state. Right now the forecast places area of focus across the NE 2/3 of the state. Compact low is expected to develop across NW TX and SW OK and eject to the east. This will likely develop storms across SW OK and push them E/NE. Right now SPC has 15% probabilities, but upgrades could be done in the next couple days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019041512/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_46.png

Looks like most of Oklahoma received a good 1-2+ inches out of this weekend storm with the stark exception of NW OK which didn’t get anything.

Yep. The next chance for rain comes Monday, PM.
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/rainapr15-2019.png

Tomorrow looks interesting. Some amateur chasers I follow on another site seem to think the tornado potential just isn't there tomorrow at least for central OK. So hopefully they're right!

https://i.imgur.com/24WKS39.png

i'm hoping for some good news about timing that means i won't be in my car in traffic when it hits...

i'm hoping for some good news about timing that means i won't be in my car in traffic when it hits...

David Payne said storm potential will start in OKC at about 5pm.

Unique forecast for C OK today. The way the low is ejecting into the plains will result in a nearly guaranteed storm development across NW OK and S & E OK. Leaving a potential hole in the middle. We will have to monitor cumulus fields and radar for development across SW into C OK for impacts. Also potential for back-building development coming south off of the storms to the NW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019041711/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_15.png

Does this looked changed now? Seems to have moved South since earlier this AM?

Unique forecast for C OK today. The way the low is ejecting into the plains will result in a nearly guaranteed storm development across NW OK and S & E OK. Leaving a potential hole in the middle. We will have to monitor cumulus fields and radar for development across SW into C OK for impacts. Also potential for back-building development coming south off of the storms to the NW.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019041711/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_15.png

Tuesday night, Aaron Tuttle was on Facebook saying he saw weakness in the model data over central Oklahoma and said that change would likely happen and it sure did this morning.
https://stillwaterweather.com/photos/tuttle.png

Aaron Tuttle has a degree in meterology?

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FOR THE COUNTIES MARKED IN DARK PINK:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Hi-Res Short Range models latching onto the storms riding along into NW OK and then having explosive development to the south as they approach NC OK. If development occurs, this will be just directly west of OKC and points to the south and west as the night progresses. Main threat will be wind damage as storms will likely be linear.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2019041722/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_6.png




https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019041718/nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_9.png

Storms popping directly west of OKC metro right now (9:30pm). They are not severe, but might be by the time they impact majority population.

Storm is coming into Mustang now, will be hitting rest of OKC from there (10:10pm ish)

Storm is now indicated as severe. Movement is still east into OKC proper, from west to east [west, now (10pm) - east side (11pm)].

However, storm is stuck behind the outflow boundary and this will help to weaken the storm(s). Wind is the main threat.

In far NW OKC we just got lots of hail and lots of rain. All in last 20 minutes. Hail half covered yard.

I got hail for 20 minutes straight a few miles north of Downtown, but fortunately none of it was much larger than quarter-sized. Really nice storm.

I didn't see much hail on the south side, 4mi due east of the airport... but my rain gauge shows we picked up 0.63" of rainfall. That was a nice storm that put on a very pretty show of lightning and thunder!

Backside spotty showers and some rumbles of thunder coming in from the west. Short-lived and will die out heading into dark.

FLOOD WATCH OUT
The area affected runs from Stillwater to the southwest corner of Oklahoma. It includes all the Oklahoma City Metro Area. It's in effect until 1 pm Tuesday.

AREA COVERED:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Waves of rain and storms moves in tonight. The general theme seems to be a focus of heaviest rainfall from SW to C OK along the I-44 corridor. Here are some model predictions for amounts over the next 3 days.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019042212/nam3km_apcpn_scus_20.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2019042212/rgem_apcpn_scus_48.png



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019042212/gfs_apcpn_scus_11.png

It's Festival of the Arts week so of course there is rain! Glad there doesn't appear to be much risk for any severe weather though. The storms a few years ago were horrible for everyone involved with the festival. I'm bummed that rain appears to be very likely tomorrow morning - planned to go out there first thing but that does not appear incredibly likely.

Some major rainfall moving through this morning. The OKC East Mesonet site picked up 0.41" in 15 minutes as the heaviest storms passed by. Farther to the SW, Hobart is at 5.40" of rain and counting from this event.