Just realized I have been posting in last months threads. Going to copy my last two posts from today here:


We will see storms develop this afternoon and evening across NW OK and down across NC TX. Storms will develop and track out of TX into S and SW OK and ride up over C OK during the overnight hours. Wednesday morning commute will likely be a wet one.

Temperatures will be pretty static for the next week with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 60s.






Storms are beginning to develop as said above.

Short-range models are suggesting a concentrated area of heavy rain (4"+) somewhere over C OK. There is growing concern of local flash flooding by early morning wherever the development training occurs.

FLOOD WATCH FOR METRO

Areas Affected:
Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Comanche - Cotton - Garvin - Grady - Johnston - Kingfisher - Lincoln - Logan - McClain - Murray - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Seminole - Stephens

Effective: Wed, 10/4 1:45am Updated: Wed, 10/4 3:45am Urgency: Future
Expires: Wed, 10/4 7:00pm Severity: Moderate Certainty: Possible

Details:

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a
* Flood Watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and
rivers...and flooding of low lying areas for portions of central
Oklahoma, east central Oklahoma, southeast Oklahoma, southern
Oklahoma, and southwest Oklahoma, including the following areas,
in central Oklahoma, Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Kingfisher,
Lincoln, Logan, McClain, Oklahoma, Payne, and Pottawatomie. In
east central Oklahoma, Pontotoc and Seminole. In southeast
Oklahoma, Johnston. In southern Oklahoma, Carter, Garvin,
Murray, and Stephens. In southwest Oklahoma, Caddo, Comanche,
and Cotton.
* Through 7 pm Wednesday
* Heavy rainfall will occur with periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms through Wednesday afternoon.
* Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are likely with higher amounts
possible.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

COUNTIES AFFECTED:
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Looks like the latest models are showing darn near 4 inches of rain in spots of central OK from today's system. Gonna be a soaker.

Looks like the heaviest rainfall totals will line up from about El Reno to just north of the Guthrie area.

How does 2017 compare to 2007 and 2015 in terms of annual rainfall so far? I am curious if OKC will be looking at a record or near record wet year this year.

Definitely not like 2007. 2007 was unforgettable for a lot of rain. Some locations in central Oklahoma went over 60" for year's total, which were all time records. But weather is like real estate -- location, location, location. So it depends. My own annual tally just went over 34". Average annual is 36.71". Unless the rain shuts down for the rest of the year, all of Oklahoma should be able to get its average annual rain amount this year. If the heavy rain stays persistent for the rest of the year, you could be looking at one of the rainiest years ever.

Pawnee to the northeast of me just went over 6", so once again, it gets down to location, location, location. And proves how hard it is to forecast the weather accurately. Pawnee County isn't in the flood watch when initially issued.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.8760hr.png?1507139708777

Definitely not like 2007. 2007 was unforgettable for a lot of rain. Some locations went over 60" for year's total, which were all time records. But weather is like real estate -- location, location, location. So it depends. My own annual tally just went over 34". Average annual is 36.71". Unless the rain shuts down for the rest of the year, all of Oklahoma should be able to get its average annual rain amount this year. If the heavy rain stays persistent for the rest of the year, you could be looking at one of the rainiest years ever.


Some areas in eastern OK are already approaching records. The all-time record is 76.61" in Broken Bow in 2009. For comparison a tropical rainforest typically averages over 80" annually.

http://www.mesonet.org/20th/images/annual_rain.png

And average annual rainfall...would be interested to see 2000-2017 compared to this map of averages from 1961-1990:

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/namerica/usstates/weathermaps/ok.gif

Spend 6 hours standing in the rain at the OKC PD shooting range, there was no point even trying to stay dry. It was soaked out there.

As of 5:35 pm, Will Rogers World Airport in Oklahoma City has had a record of 2.56". Previous record on Oct. 4th was 2.22" in 1955.

Rain in Pawnee is at 7.58". Rain there is about over.

Chance of strong storms Friday evening. Storms will fire in a line from KS into the TX PH. These will push east as we head into the night and eventually weaken. Likely will not be severe by the time they reach C OK, but W OK could see gusty winds or small hail.

Strong storm will be coming through the plains Monday evening. Rain chances will be mostly NE and E OK. But the entire state will feel a significant drop in temperatures as highs Tues and Wed will only be in the 60s. Lows will be down into the 40s until late week when we begin to moderate.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH out until 10 pm for the NE quarter of Oklahoma. Oklahoma County not included.

Areas Affected:
Adair - Cherokee - Craig - Creek - Delaware - Kay - Lincoln - Mayes - McIntosh - Muskogee - Noble - Nowata - Okfuskee - Okmulgee - Osage - Ottawa - Pawnee - Payne - Rogers - Tulsa - Wagoner - Washington

Effective: Mon, 10/9 2:55pm Updated: Mon, 10/9 3:00pm Urgency: Expected
Expires: Mon, 10/9 10:00pm Severity: Severe Certainty: Likely

COUNTIES AFFECTED:
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Storms have started in southeast Kansas as of 3:30pm.
https://icons.wxug.com/data/weather-maps/radar/united-states/lawton-oklahoma-region-current-radar-animation.gif

Yes, boundary just came through OKC. Winds will shift from NW and cool air will filter down the rest of tonight and tomorrow. Open your windows and turn off the AC!

Feels awesome!!

Feels awesome!!

Sooooo agree!

I love the cool fall weather... Sitting outside with my dogs loving life.

I somehow don't think it's gonna be so comfy in the morning.

Severe weather is likely Saturday evening. At this time, it looks like could see a line of storms come out of NW OK and swing through to the south and east. Damaging winds main culprit at this time.

Storms should develop tomorrow afternoon late in NW OK and SW KS.

This will spread south and east into the main body of OK as we head into the night. Storms should not be severe, but could get severe warned if winds appear to be strong with the line.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017101318/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_33.png

Just like last week, we are building warmth ahead of the next storm. Which will once again be coming through Saturday evening. It will be basically identical to last weekend with storms coming out of the NW in a line, likely providing damaging winds.

SPC has already upgraded Saturday to an 'enhanced' risk across OK. Models have hinted at potential for supercells to develop ahead of main squall-line. Any storms that do develop ahead of this line will have a window of opportunity for large hail and outside shot @ a small tornado. Nevertheless, the main threat still remains with damaging winds with the main line of storms.

Models still hanging onto the idea of initial supercells. SPC hatched area over basically all of C OK for large hail and damaging winds with a weak chance of a tornado early. Hail and tornado threats will be with cells that develop ahead of the main line that will be coming out of W/NW OK. The line's focus will be damaging winds.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017102012/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_37.png

Meanwhile, it doesn't look like a bad winter is coming with temps having a chance of being warmer than normal: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-noaa-forecasters-predict-cooler-wetter-north-and-warmer-drier-south

Meanwhile, it doesn't look like a bad winter is coming with temps having a chance of being warmer than normal: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-noaa-forecasters-predict-cooler-wetter-north-and-warmer-drier-south

I guess that depends on how you look at bad..... We may be a powder keg if that drier forecast happens.

Combined with a wet warm fall to get a lot of growth that can then dry up.

Short range models keeping discrete supercells developing down in SW OK and moving toward C OK this evening. Then entire line lights up and consumes these cells. Hail threat will be significant with these early storms.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2017102117/hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_7.png

Latest data shows 1-2 supercells firing somewhere near Caddo county. Tornado watch is coming soon.

Tornado watch for OKC until 10 pm.

Counties covered:
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Huge hail coming out of that first supercell heading to west of Carnegie. Also rotation is becoming more organized (hence the hail size).

All storms now severe. Most dangerous storms are from Carnegie to Cordell.

The line is now forming out along the TX/OK border and will race east. This line will engulf the storms ahead of it and create a widespread damaging wind scenario for C OK.

In Stillwater, was that thunder or an earthquake? An any rate, a narrow new line of storms is approaching Stillwater as of 5:15 pm. No advisories for there at that time.

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TLX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.313&noclutter=0&t=1326398785&lat=36.10796738&lon=-97.07638550&label=Stillwater%2C+OK&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=393&centery=530&transx=-7&transy=290&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.rad.gif

Reports of tornado on storm west of Cache.

Tornado headed into Medicine Park. Western sides of the town.

Tornado threat quickly diminishing as cluster moves closer to C OK.

Tornado threat quickly diminishing as cluster moves closer to C OK.

Anon, that storm with the rotation down near Cyril and heading toward Chickasha - you think that rotation becomes less intense as it approaches OKC? Starting to get close enough to....well, pay attention a bit.

Tornado threat quickly diminishing as cluster moves closer to C OK.

It didn't diminish quickly enough to keep a EF-1 tornado from hitting the Riverwind Casino in Norman where the governor was present for the Beach Boys concert.

Yea I was gone after that post so didn't update. But yea that one storm's hook just rode along the line straight into the Norman area. Quick little spinup.

Lows Saturday morning:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017102512/namconus_T2m_scus_49.png

FREEZE WATCH
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Beckham - Blaine - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Wash ita
Effective: Sat, 10/28 12:00am Updated: Wed, 10/25 7:00pm Urgency: Future
Expires: Sat, 10/28 10:00am Severity: Moderate - Certainty: Possible

Details:

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a Freeze Watch,
which is in effect from late Friday night through Saturday
morning.
* TEMPERATURE...29 to 32 degrees across much of the area, possibly
as low as 24 degrees across northwest Oklahoma.
* IMPACTS...Sensitive plants may be damaged or killed if left
outdoors unprotected. A hard freeze is likely across northwest
Oklahoma Saturday morning.

Information:

A Freeze Watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible.
These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

COUNTIES AFFECTED:

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

Coldfront just came through OKC. Strong northerly winds will be arriving as we head into the evening hours. Winter jacket weather the next two days.

Coldfront just came through OKC. Strong northerly winds will be arriving as we head into the evening hours. Winter jacket weather the next two days.

Thank you cold front. Please let me yard die a quick death

Dat wind, tho! Shaking my whole apartment building!

Yes, mine too!

Unfortunately for the kids, looks like Halloween will be the worst weather day this week. Cold & cloudy with a slight chance of some light showers towards evening.

After that, we warm up significantly for Wednesday and Thursday. Fire danger will be high. Then another cooldown comes in for Friday. For the moment, this weekend looks fantastic.

Beautiful day today, try to hold off on turning on the AC - because tonight is another cooldown. Friday highs will be in the 50s. Saturday we warm back up to 70s, and Sunday most of the state will be back in the 80s.

Looking ahead, next week cools down significantly with a chance of rain coming mid-week. Look for highs in the 40s in the latter part of the week until finally moderating into the weekend with some highs in the 60s.

A glaring temperature contrast from 48 to 90 in Oklahoma on Sunday afternoon while a cold front makes another attempt to pass through the state.

http://stillwaterweather.com/img/temp2017.png

Holy cow, all week the forecast was for 80 in OKC and now it's barely in the 60's.

^ Yes, the boundary sagged about 30 miles further south than forecast. So the highs were made around 10am.

This cold air is going to sit over the plains for a while. Cold rain chances move in Tuesday night into Wednesday. Likely a freeze Wednesday night, especially if skies clear. Moderation still looks likely as we head towards the weekend with highs getting back into the 60s.

Fog and drizzle will develop overnight tonight.

High fire danger coming Friday. Weekend looks pleasant with highs in the low 60s.

WIND ADVISORY
Areas Affected:
Alfalfa - Atoka - Beckham - Blaine - Bryan - Caddo - Canadian - Carter - Cleveland - Coal - Comanche - Cotton - Custer - Dewey - Ellis - Garfield - Garvin - Grady - Grant - Greer - Harmon - Harper - Hughes - Jackson - Jefferson - Johnston - Kay - Kingfisher - Kiowa - Lincoln - Logan - Love - Major - Marshall - McClain - Murray - Noble - Oklahoma - Payne - Pontotoc - Pottawatomie - Roger Mills - Seminole - Stephens - Tillman - Wash ita - Woods - Woodward

Effective: Sat, 11/18 12:00am Updated: Fri, 11/17 5:12am Urgency: Expected
Expires: Sat, 11/18 3:00pm Severity: Minor Certainty: Likely

Details:

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST
SATURDAY...
The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST
Saturday.

* TIMING...Late tonight through Saturday afternoon.
* WINDS...North 25 to 30 mph sustained with gusts over 50 mph,
especially western and northern Oklahoma.
* IMPACTS...Driving on east-west roadways may be difficult for high-
profile vehicles.

Information:
A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Light brown area affected:
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png

OKC reached 82 degrees on Friday destroying a 121 year old daily record high!

Wind advisory has expanded to include all the state except for the panhandle.

The state needs some moisture. Unfortunately this entire week looks dry, possibly some showers the weekend after Thanksgiving.

Actually we're doing quite well at the moment, and there's still water in the ditches in many areas from the last rain.

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/agriculture/map/agriculture_essentials/drought/oklahoma_drought_monitor_map

As a whole, the state is at normal to -2 inches for the year, and we still have 42 days to go. Looking at averages, we can expect another 2-4 between now and New Year's.

37.07" of rain for the year here, so far. The heavy parts of the storms didn't miss too often here on the east side of Stillwater. Average annual is 36.71" for Stillwater.

Actually we're doing quite well at the moment, and there's still water in the ditches in many areas from the last rain.

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/agriculture/map/agriculture_essentials/drought/oklahoma_drought_monitor_map

As a whole, the state is at normal to -2 inches for the year, and we still have 42 days to go. Looking at averages, we can expect another 2-4 between now and New Year's.

More talking about in the past 2-3 weeks there hasn't been much moisture which is creating a very high fire danger with these warm, windy and dry conditions.

Stupidly windy weather continues Tuesday. Extreme fire danger.

Tuesday night a slight chance for rain in OKC, best chance is NE OK over Tulsa area. High temperatures will be knocked down into the 50s beginning Wednesday. Still no sign of legitimate moisture in the next week. We are entering dangerous fire conditions heading into winter.

First major cold could be looming around the December 4-7 timeframe.

This will be for the eventual December thread. But GFS is beginning to consistently suggest a large storm late next week. The timing is similar to the colder air I mentioned above.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017112818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

This will be for the eventual December thread. But GFS is beginning to consistently suggest a large storm late next week. The timing is similar to the colder air I mentioned above.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017112818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

Rain mostly yes?

Hopefully rain, most of the state is entering drought conditions into winter.

Latest has the storm ejecting more to the south across TX. Leaving OK dry and cold.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017113006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png