Let's talk stocks, investing, economy, Fed, and all that here. Political discussion needs to be tied it into stocks. IE obamacare is going to be great for health care stocks, a Trump tariff on Mexico is going to kill carmakers.

I really hope we don't see negative interest rates they are a horrible horrible idea.

What negative interest rates can do to US stock market (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/12/what-negative-interest-rates-can-do-to-us-stock-market.html)

If you have money in the market right, you're an out & out fool, did people not learn their lesson in 2008-09?

If you have money in the market right, you're an out & out fool, did people not learn their lesson in 2008-09?

Thanks for that Tundra, great input. Why are you in this thread? Go away troll.

If you have money in the market right, you're an out & out fool, did people not learn their lesson in 2008-09?

Like when people invested in the market while it was low after it crashed, and tripled their money in 8 years.

Like when people invested in the market while it was low after it crashed, and tripled their money in 8 years.

When the market started coming back yes, but with all of the same warning signs of 08-09 you'd be crazy to keep gambling your money in the market, especially if you're nearing retirement age. Pulled almost all of mine out in 08 by the advice of my advisor and Im glad I listened... its no different today.

Thanks for that Tundra, great input. Why are you in this thread? Go away troll.

Not trolling, some people like myself just happen to know about a lot of different topics....

When the market started coming back yes, but with all of the same warning signs of 08-09 you'd be crazy to keep gambling your money in the market, especially if you're nearing retirement age. Pulled almost all of mine out in 08 by the advice of my advisor and Im glad I listened... its no different today.

Good lord, you pay for a stock adviser?

Good lord, you pay for a stock adviser?

I was back then, extremely glad I was.....

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/21-new-numbers-that-show-that-the-global-economy-is-absolutely-imploding

If this doesn't make you want to throw all you life savings into the stock market, I don't know what would...

Bad things are upon the horizon...

When the market started coming back yes, but with all of the same warning signs of 08-09 you'd be crazy to keep gambling your money in the market, especially if you're nearing retirement age. Pulled almost all of mine out in 08 by the advice of my advisor and Im glad I listened... its no different today.

Yes, a lot of people yanked their 401(k) money on poor advice like that. They took a big tax hit and then they had a bunch of red-tape to deal with. Those who didn't listen to those saying to "get out of the market," watched their plans tank and then rise to much higher levels than before - without a tax hit and all the hassle that came to those who pulled their 401(k) money. You always link to doom & gloom websites that make money selling survival food, gold, silver, and boat loads of BS.

I have to agree with Tundra. I don't own a single stock, bond, or piece of precious metal. I converted everything to cash and paid down debt. I just hope the economy can hang on until March 2017 so I can get the cars paid off.

Now having said that, one thing I know for sure is the stock market will not crash. The Fed will ruin us all with worthless money before they allow the market to crash. The DOW is going to 50,000 (but bread is going $22.50).

Yes, a lot of people yanked their 401(k) money on poor advice like that. They took a big tax hit and then they had a bunch of red-tape to deal with. Those who didn't listen to those saying to "get out of the market," watched their plans tank and then rise to much higher levels than before - without a tax hit and all the hassle that came to those who pulled their 401(k) money. You always link to doom & gloom websites that make money selling survival food, gold, silver, and boat loads of BS.

Its better to pay taxes, because it means you have a profit, then to stay in and lose your profit and principal. Do you have 7 figures in your 401k? If not you wouldn't understand.....

I retired May 3rd, 2004 and I have received a monthly withdrawal every month since. Most of the time, my principal has been above or remained at the same amount as when I retired. I'm a little low right now but still, considering that I have enjoyed almost 144 paydays, I can't complain about the market. If I could go back to 2004, knowing what I know now, I wouldn't change a thing because if I wasn't in the market it wouldn't be long and I would be living on Social Security.
C. T.

Its better to pay taxes, because it means you have a profit, then to stay in and lose your profit and principal. Do you have 7 figures in your 401k? If not you wouldn't understand.....

No, I don't, and If you have seven figures in a 401(k) you're less than .05% of those with 401(k) plans.

No, the taxes people paid were actually penalties for early withdrawal for those who got talked into leaving the market in '08. And there were plenty who didn't even trust parking their money in a money market fund. Bad advice - much of it fueled by Porter Stansberry and others who get rich on fear.

No, I don't, and If you have seven figures in a 401(k) you're less than .05% of those with 401(k) plans.

No, the taxes people paid were actually penalties for early withdrawal for those who got talked into leaving the market in '08. And there were plenty who didn't even trust parking their money in a money market fund. Bad advice - much of it fueled by Stansberry and others who get rich on fear.

Never heard of Stansberry before or any others, my advisor right here in Oklahoma laid it out for me , it was ultimately my decision, as was it to get back in.... I'd do it again in a heart beat

Invest for the long term and don't worry when the market plunges. I put $5,000 in a Fidelity Contrafund IRA during the mid 1990s and it's now worth over $30,000. Had I messed with it by trying to time the market, I bet it wouldn't be worth nearly that much. Some of its biggest holdings are Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Starbucks, Visa and Nike.

It depends on how you are invested. If you are talking about money that goes into a 401k, I agree that this isn't a great time for the market, but 401k's are for the long-term so if you're not retiring in the next five years really you should be looking past this blip and investing for the long-haul.

If you are investing via a brokerage account, the first thing everyone should realize is you can make money in the stock market both when it is an up market and when it is a down market. I have actually made far more money in down markets by shorting stocks or by buying into leveraged ETFs/ETNs that inversely track, sometimes with multiplying leverage, the motion of the market, a commodity, a base or precious metal, or a business sector. If you really are convinced beyond all belief that the market is headed down, then why not invest in instruments that are going to go way up in that kind of a market? If you don't know what's going to happen and think the market is too volatile, then why wouldn't you invest in notes that are trading on volatility futures?

I do want to say that you absolutely should not do any of this unless you really know what you are doing, but today is always a great day to learn. Download any number of free apps, set yourself up a fake portfolio, and see how you do. Watch what happens, tweak it, and learn. If you have enough money in a brokerage that you have access to professional trader tools, run an advanced market momentum scan and see what the big trades are that day. Look at what the big traders are actually trading. Try to figure out why. Make notes.

Also realize the market never sleeps. You can trade in our country during certain hours, or other countries during other hours. A down market here may not equal a down market there. There are many opportunities "in a down market" if you just look for them.

Reading the last few comments I can see that some of us differ on the severity and ultimate outcome of the looming economic issues. Some think this is just another bump in the road. I personally believe this is going to be a point of inflection. The path we are on is going to change permanently which is why I don't own any imaginary stuff.

Reading the last few comments I can see that some of us differ on the severity and ultimate outcome of the looming economic issues. Some think this is just another bump in the road. I personally believe this is going to be a point of inflection. The path we are on is going to change permanently which is why I don't own any imaginary stuff.

But change to what?

We're not going to go back to bartering. Currency is still very necessary for us to live our day to day lives and any change to the current system is far more likely to be evolutionary than revolutionary. And when things are revolutionary they almost always tend toward simplification/consolidation. I don't think you can go away from Dollars, Euros, Yen, Pounds and Rubles. If you do, it's toward a more singular, world-wide currency…I certainly don't see the city-states that are so important in your view of the future initiating their own currencies, because people want mobility.

And the reason this is important is because as long as we have these concentrated forms of currency, it is perfectly reasonable to value resources in those currencies. Yes, those currencies are "easily" manipulated, but they've ultimately done a decent job over the last many centuries in helping us move forward and progress as a society. We have made some missteps, but none so egregious that we need to completely overhaul the system in hindsight.

21 New Numbers That Show That The Global Economy Is Absolutely Imploding (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/21-new-numbers-that-show-that-the-global-economy-is-absolutely-imploding)

If this doesn't make you want to throw all you life savings into the stock market, I don't know what would...

Bad things are upon the horizon...

Now you are getting investing advice from Facebook clickbait? Maybe you should go back to paying for advice.

The only way you have seven figures in a 401k is if you include the cents.

But change to what?


I don't know what it will change to but I think a discussion along those lines would seriously detract from the intent of this threads topic. Alas, I am 100% standing behind my 2020 prediction - which is simply that by Dec 31, 2020 there will not be 50 US States.

I don't know what it will change to but I think a discussion along those lines would seriously detract from the intent of this threads topic. Alas, I am 100% standing behind my 2020 prediction - which is simply that by Dec 31, 2020 there will not be 50 US States.

I don't think Porto Rico becoming a state will collapse the economy.

I don't think Porto Rico becoming a state will collapse the economy.

Have you seen the Puerto Rico economy? It might.

Puerto Rico Economy (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/puerto-rico-economy/)

Let's talk stocks, investing, economy, Fed, and all that here. Political discussion needs to be tied it into stocks. IE obamacare is going to be great for health care stocks, a Trump tariff on Mexico is going to kill carmakers.

I really hope we don't see negative interest rates they are a horrible horrible idea.

What negative interest rates can do to US stock market (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/12/what-negative-interest-rates-can-do-to-us-stock-market.html)

Negative interest rates are a desperation move. The horrible idea was creating a group of central bankers to keep prices "stable" when all they do is create bigger and bigger economic bubbles that collapse.

Jealousy isn't a good trait Swake....


Why don't you explain how you got "seven figures" in your 401k after you emptied it in 2008? I don't think you even understand a 401k or how a 401k plan works when you make that claim. It's not impossible to have one with seven figures, but doing it in seven years is going to be really, really close. Winning Powerball close to impossible. It would take Mitt Romney levels of manipulation to get there and even then it might not be possible.

With contribution limits currently at $18k per year and $53k including employer matches, why don't you explain how you got there in seven years.

Negative interest rates are a desperation move. The horrible idea was creating a group of central bankers to keep prices "stable" when all they do is create bigger and bigger economic bubbles that collapse.

It seems the only thing the Fed is capable of is creating bubbles. We are like a pot of water on the stove. It seems to take forever for the first bubble to rise to the surface and pop, and then slowly another forms and pops, then a few more, then several at once, and before long we are at full boil with bubbles raising and popping so fast that there is no stability in the pot. We aren't boiling yet but we are getting close.

Notice in the video the discussion around savings vs spending and that Hayek wants to use public transit to go to the Fed.

d0nERTFo-Sk

Reading the last few comments I can see that some of us differ on the severity and ultimate outcome of the looming economic issues. Some think this is just another bump in the road. I personally believe this is going to be a point of inflection. The path we are on is going to change permanently which is why I don't own any imaginary stuff.

If you really believe that, then put a bunch of money in inverse indexes which always do the opposite of what the market does. If the market crashes big, you will make money. Then put it in the traditional market. It goes up, and you make more money. If you do this correctly, you are making money constantly, up or down.

If you think the market is going to go up but it'll all be fantasy, then think about what that means from a big picture perspective. Does it mean the dollar is going to devalue? Then find an ETF that is going to go up if that happens. If you're feeling like doing something risky and think the dollar is going to drop quickly, then look at triple leverage notes that are going to go up by 3x for every down dollar 1x. (Realize that there are fees, contango and other elements that can erode your profit unless you know what you are doing with this).

Have you seen the Puerto Rico economy? It might.

Puerto Rico Economy (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/puerto-rico-economy/)

I have... Sad really. Kind of Detroitish

Why don't you explain how you got "seven figures" in your 401k after you emptied it in 2008? I don't think you even understand a 401k or how a 401k plan works when you make that claim. It's not impossible to have one with seven figures, but doing it in seven years is going to be really, really close. Winning Powerball close to impossible. It would take Mitt Romney levels of manipulation to get there and even then it might not be possible.

With contribution limits currently at $18k per year and $53k including employer matches, why don't you explain how you got there in seven years.

Going on 20 years now me and my wife have been able to contribute to 401ks and IRA's each year in the amount of between $45-50 thousand a year , as well as investing in the market , CD's , and just a plain ol savings accounts at the bank. We chose in 07 from advise from our advisor to pull our money out and pay the taxes , rreinvested it in the market in late 09 and have done rather well..... We've been fortunate to have both had great jobs and great employers we live modestly. When I said 7 seven figures in a 401 k really just 7 figures in our retirement fund....I am a low risk kinda guy, so to me I'd rather pay the taxes and live to fight another day, than watch it all shrivel up and die....

Negative interest rates are a desperation move. The horrible idea was creating a group of central bankers to keep prices "stable" when all they do is create bigger and bigger economic bubbles that collapse.

Why Negative Interest Rates Spell Doom For Capitalism | Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-18/why-negative-interest-rates-spell-doom-capitalism)

In actual investing talk. Ford is yielding 4.9% on dividends and a PE of 6.65

If you really believe that, then put a bunch of money in inverse indexes which always do the opposite of what the market does. If the market crashes big, you will make money. Then put it in the traditional market. It goes up, and you make more money. If you do this correctly, you are making money constantly, up or down.

What am I going to do with a bunch of worthless dollars? In my opinion you guys are all trying to pick the most luxurious seat on the Titanic, and I am looking to get off at the first possible opportunity.

What am I going to do with a bunch of worthless dollars? In my opinion you guys are all trying to pick the most luxurious seat on the Titanic, and I am looking to get off at the first possible opportunity.

If things are going bad that fast, i think you wasted a whole lot of your money paying off all that debt. If things fall apart, as you think, all the debt's going to be worthless anyway because everyone will be in default. The slate will just get wiped clean as the US gets split up and put back together again.

Why Negative Interest Rates Spell Doom For Capitalism | Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-18/why-negative-interest-rates-spell-doom-capitalism)

The two main problems I have with negative interest rates are:

1.) In order for it to work on a population you need to make cash illegal or hard to use. This will trigger some Christians who will read it as 'the mark of the beast' where you can't buy or sell with the RFID mark. This will lead to able body workers opting out of the system.

2.) It doesn't encourage spending in risk adverse people. It will just cause these people to save more and spend less to have enough principle to retire on.

I will now read the link and see if the author agrees with me.

In my opinion you guys are all trying to pick the most luxurious seat on the Titanic, and I am looking to get off at the first possible opportunity.

Don't necessarily agree with it Kerry but this is a great statement.

In actual investing talk. Ford is yielding 4.9% on dividends and a PE of 6.65

I leave my 401 to the professionals but have a small account I dabble/play with. Take the approach like it is a blackjack table in Vegas and don't have anything in there I can't afford to lose. I have been thinking of stocks that pay consistent dividends. Beside Ford, who else do you like. (And for the rest of you...not going to go buy just on someone's recommendation on an online forum)

Why Negative Interest Rates Spell Doom For Capitalism | Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-18/why-negative-interest-rates-spell-doom-capitalism)

Don't read ZeroHedge, it's a crap site. It's written by a very disgruntled former hedge fund trader that was banned for life from Wall Street by the Feds.

There's nothing wrong with ZeroHedge... :rolleyes:
Sure, some of the articles posted occasionally may relate more to Alex Jones material, but nonetheless, ZeroHedge puts it out there where the MSM won't.

Instead of telling people not to read it, it's more beneficial to simply say that other resources are available as well, that others may or may not deem more credible for whatever reason.

All you're going to hear from CNBC or Fox Business (or some of the others) is the typical editor approved material, anyway.

And I say this as someone who reads all of them, not just one or two.

If things are going bad that fast, i think you wasted a whole lot of your money paying off all that debt. If things fall apart, as you think, all the debt's going to be worthless anyway because everyone will be in default. The slate will just get wiped clean as the US gets split up and put back together again.

Yep - if only we went from our current interest rates to currency collapse, but we won't. Plenty of financial pain still to come.

There's nothing wrong with ZeroHedge... :rolleyes:
Sure, some of the articles posted occasionally may relate more to Alex Jones material, but nonetheless, ZeroHedge puts it out there where the MSM won't.

Instead of telling people not to read it, it's more beneficial to simply say that other resources are available as well, that others may or may not deem more credible for whatever reason.

All you're going to hear from CNBC or Fox Business (or some of the others) is the typical editor approved material, anyway.

And I say this as someone who reads all of them, not just one or two.

That Article is full on Alex Jones.

Look, ZeroHedge starts with the premise that we are all doomed and the economy will fail. It's in their byline. Every single article picks and chooses facts, then often blurs or bends facts and then often outright lies to achieve that predetermined conclusion. It means that there is not a single article there worth reading.

If things are going bad that fast, i think you wasted a whole lot of your money paying off all that debt. If things fall apart, as you think, all the debt's going to be worthless anyway because everyone will be in default. The slate will just get wiped clean as the US gets split up and put back together again.

This…If the Dollar goes away, so do the banks that hold your debts in dollars. The bank can only foreclose or repossess on something that's politically viable. If 2 houses in a subdivision are in foreclosure, nobody cares and the bank wins. If 20 houses in a subdivision are in foreclosure, everyone looks around asking what the hell is going on and the bank loses.

Of course, you have to make it out of the initial stages of wide-spread default because people will only sympathize with you when *they* are also going through it. But the kind of cataclysmic event imagined in JTF's scenario (which I don't see as impossible, btw) is not going to going to take a decade to materialize…it will take 6-18 months in today's paradigm. In that case, debt/foreclosure/repossession will be much further down on the list of worries, and eating will be much higher up until the localized economies he's talking about can pick back up (somewhere between 2 and 10 years later).

Somewhat ironically, I think it would be the cities/states that are less dense/populated that would thrive in these instances.

Somewhat ironically, I think it would be the cities/states that are less dense/populated that would thrive in these instances.

Density wins everytime. Goods and services will flow to areas where the most customers can be reached for the least amount of money. That is true today and will be true tomorrow.

Also, having a defunct currency doesn't alleviate the obligation to repay. It might take a bank 10 years to collect, but they will eventually do it.

However, lets say I am totally wrong. I am still debt-free and no one gets a portion of my paycheck except me.

Don't read ZeroHedge, it's a crap site. It's written by a very disgruntled former hedge fund trader that was banned for life from Wall Street by the Feds.

That should be the main reason to read zero hedge.

Yep - if only we went from our current interest rates to currency collapse, but we won't. Plenty of financial pain still to come.

But if what you say is true, you should just charge up all you can buying survivalist gear and canned food, not paying OFF your debt. All that debt is going up in smoke.

What am I going to do with a bunch of worthless dollars? In my opinion you guys are all trying to pick the most luxurious seat on the Titanic, and I am looking to get off at the first possible opportunity.

Then like I said, don't invest in something that is based in dollars. Find an ETF that is indexed to something other than dollars. Maybe its some second world currency, maybe its a precious metal, maybe you trade on someone else's market... you are thinking small by thinking about dollars and up markets. The Titanic crashed into an iceberg, not the entire British passenger fleet. Find the right ship.

Going on 20 years now me and my wife have been able to contribute to 401ks and IRA's each year in the amount of between $45-50 thousand a year , as well as investing in the market , CD's , and just a plain ol savings accounts at the bank. We chose in 07 from advise from our advisor to pull our money out and pay the taxes , rreinvested it in the market in late 09 and have done rather well..... We've been fortunate to have both had great jobs and great employers we live modestly. When I said 7 seven figures in a 401 k really just 7 figures in our retirement fund....I am a low risk kinda guy, so to me I'd rather pay the taxes and live to fight another day, than watch it all shrivel up and die....

Congratulations, that's awesome to hear. If you timed it right, then you made what was a huge negative for everyone else a huge positive for you, probably on the order of 2x or 3x. I'd hang onto that adviser.

12256

12256

Not really. There's always more QE. We haven't had any real inflation, despite every doomsday prediction.

Infation in small doses is very healthy. Too much or 0-inflation is indicative of problems. Negative rates or deflation are not good at all.

Not really. There's always more QE. We haven't had any real inflation, despite every doomsday prediction.

Who knows if we have inflation or not - they keep changing how they calculate it. This is an older story but you get the idea. The formula has changed again since this article came. However, it is clear that the Feds first 4 attempts at QE wasn't big enough to cause rampant inflation, of course, it wasn't big enough to have a lasting effect on the economy either. QE5 will probably be bigger.

Stock Markets, Business News, Financials, Earnings - CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/id/)

The only real inflationary area is housing costs right now. This is a huge issue in some locations because wages aren't rising either. What is VERY questionnable is the unemployment rate. Wages aren't rising because people are coming out of nowhere to take open jobs instead of shortages which should be starting to pop up at current rate levels. The answer is the unemployment rate is higher than advertised. Until wages start to rise, there will be no real, widespread, economic improvement. If a company like Boeing offers up hundreds of high paying jobs, you figure out a way to get them. Tax incentives get made up in other ways, down the line and often, in indirect ways.

You can't get inflation if people can't afford to take on more debt which they in turn use to buy things. So it doesn't matter if they launch more QE, it just sits on the banks balance sheets.

You can't get inflation if people can't afford to take on more debt which they in turn use to buy things. So it doesn't matter if they launch more QE, it just sits on the banks balance sheets.

That is why banks started subprime home loans in early 2000 and rolling negative equality into car loans well before that (which had to be the stupidest loan idea in the history of bad loan ideas).

If you have money in the market right, you're an out & out fool, did people not learn their lesson in 2008-09?

I have quite a bit in my 401K and have rode out the storm before and after 08 and come out in pretty good shape. I think those who panicked and sold off creating a big tax penalty are the fools.

I have quite a bit in my 401K and have rode out the storm before and after 08 and come out in pretty good shape. I think those who panicked and sold off creating a big tax penalty are the fools.

We will have to agree to disagree.... I like the sure thing and that's not what the market is telling me right now.

We will have to agree to disagree.... I like the sure thing and that's not what the market is telling me right now.

Couldn't you do a cash option in your 401k? Why would you pay the extra 10%, on top of the tax hit at your marginal rate, to move it to cash?

That is why banks started subprime home loans in early 2000 and rolling negative equality into car loans well before that (which had to be the stupidest loan idea in the history of bad loan ideas).

Banks starting buying loans due to the money they could make creating securities (e.g. CMBS, RMBS, ect) from them. The different tranches could be then sold to investors based on their risk appetite.