Obviously we'll all be deeply concerned for the Texas coast as they are about to get spanked pretty hard. Rita is now the 3rd strongest storm ever, rated by barometric pressure. Looks like then Tropical Depression Rita will move into Southern Oklahoma on Sunday and hang around a couple days. Flooding rain and tornadoes looks like the main problem with us. Should be interesting to say the least. Add a bit more detail...here is tonight's Special Weather Statement from the Weather Service office down here in Norman...

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...IMPACTS ON OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FROM HURRICANE RITA...

WHILE UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE EXACT PATH OF RITA...THE
LATEST INFORMATION SUGGESTS IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
REMNANTS OF THE STORM WILL EFFECT THE OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IF THE STORM TAKES A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK IT IS LIKELY THAT LITTLE OR NO EFFECTS FROM THE STORM
WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN THESE AREAS.

SHOULD THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE HURRICANE VERIFY...THE
FOLLOWING EFFECTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY ACROSS PART
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

1. 25 TO 35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH...
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS... TO LAWTON... TO
OKLAHOMA CITY AND STILLWATER. SMALL AND LIGHTWEIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS
SHOULD BE SECURED. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO 15 TO 25 MPH SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT UPON THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER AND THIS RAIN WOULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL.
HOWEVER...DEPENDING UPON THE RATE OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...TOO
MUCH RAIN MAY FALL IN TOO SHORT A TIME TO ALLOW SOILS TO SOAK UP THE
RAINFALL. THUS...SOME FLOODING MAY RESULT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND.

3. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STORMS TRACK. CURRENTLY ALONG AND EAST ON INTERSTATE 35.

4. WET ROADS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND INCREASED TRAFFIC COULD LEAD TO
DELAYS AND ACCIDENTS. ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR TRAVEL
DESTINATIONS THIS WEEKEND.

5. SOME AIRLINE DELAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN...ALLOW EXTRA TIME
TO REACH YOUR DESTINATIONS THIS WEEKEND.

BECAUSE THE TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THE BEST ADVICE NOW IS TO REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS LATE IN THE WEEKEND FROM A WEAKENING
RITA. PLAN NOW AND CONSIDER WHAT STEPS YOU WILL NEED TO TAKE IF IT
BECOMES EVIDENT LATER THIS WEEK THAT RITA WILL INDEED AFFECT
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL MORE PRECISELY FORECAST THE
TRACK OF RITA AND THE POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS ON OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AS WE MOVE
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING IMPACTS OF
HURRICANE RITA VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

What is scary is that the current models are projecting that Rita will maintain hurricane strength all the way into north Texas. What's worse is that the current projection shows that the refineries near Houston will likely take a direct hit. These refineries account for 25% of our nation's refining capacity. There was a lot of talk among many economists that the gas price impact will be much worse than Katrina... $4/gallon or higher is very possible and $5/gallon is not out of the question, some are saying this morning.

My brother and his family are driving from Houston to stay with us here. People are heeding the evacuation warnings much more quickly in the wake of Katrina's disaster. But evacuating that many people out one of the nation's top 5 cities is quite a challenge. Yesterday evening, evacuees from Galveston were facing 12-hour trips just to get to Huntsville, a trip that you could normally make in about 2 hours.

If Rita maintains its strength, we may not see the human drama that we saw with Katrina, but we will indeed feel a much bigger impact on our short-term and long-term economy.

From CNN/Money (http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/21/news/economy/rita_threat/index.htm):


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Remember when gas spiked to $3-plus a gallon after Hurricane Katrina? By this time next week, that could seem like the good old days.

Weather and energy experts say that as bad as Hurricane Katrina hit the nation's supply of gasoline, Hurricane Rita could be worse.

Katrina damage was focused on offshore oil platforms and ports. Now the greater risk is to oil-refinery capacity, especially if Rita slams into Houston, Galveston and Port Arthur, Texas.

"We could be looking at gasoline lines and $4 gas, maybe even $5 gas, if this thing does the worst it could do," said energy analyst Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. "This storm is in the wrong place. And it's absolutely at the wrong time," said Beutel.

Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Weather 2000, said Rita now appears most likely to hit between Port Arthur and Corpus Christi, Texas, sometime between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Just about all of Texas's refinery capacity lies in that at-risk zone. (For a look at CNN.com's coverage of Hurricane Rita, click here (http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2005/hurricanes/).)

"There is no lucky 7-10 split scenario to use a bowling analogy," he said. "If you're [a refiner] within 200 miles, you're going to feel the effect."

Compounding Katrina's impact When Katrina hit, 15 refineries, nearly all in Louisiana and Mississippi, with a combined capacity of about 3.3 million barrels a day were shut down or damaged, according to the Energy Department. That represented almost 20 percent of U.S. refining capacity.

Within a week, almost two-thirds of that damaged capacity had resumed some operations, according to the department. But four refineries with nearly 900,000 barrels a day of capacity are still basically shut down.

If Rita hits both the Houston-Galveston area, as well as the Port Arthur-Beaumont region near the Texas-Louisiana border, that could take out more than 3 million barrels of capacity a day, according to Bob Tippee, editor of the industry trade journal Oil & Gas Journal in Houston.

"Before Katrina, the system was already so tight that the worst-case scenario was for a disruption that took 250,000 barrels of capacity out of the picture. That would have been considered a major jolt," said Tippee.

"We're already in uncharted territory now. We can't project what happens from another shot the size of Katrina or worse."

Part of the problem is that skilled crews needed to make refinery repairs are already busy trying to fix the Katrina damage. That would extend recovery time from Rita.

"[Rita] could have a significant impact on supply and prices -- this really is a national disaster," Valero Energy (http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?shownav=true&symb=VLO) (Research (http://cnnfn.investor.reuters.com/Reports.aspx?ticker=VLO)) CEO Bill Greehey in an interview with Reuters Tuesday evening.

Gas not the only concern Problems could spread beyond the gas pumps.

Tippee said that natural-gas prices could see a further spike, since so many of the offshore platforms off of Texas produce natural gas, not crude oil.

And while gasoline imports have helped bring gas prices down from record highs, there isn't as much potential for heating-oil imports, he noted.

"Gasoline tends to obscure everything, especially since we aren't paying heating bills right now," said Tippee. "But we were already looking at a winter fuel problem. We're about to take another hit that will cause a lot of problems."

Schlacter said even the oil platforms off the Louisiana Gulf Coast, which are not likely to take a direct hit from Rita, could be affected by large waves churning up the Gulf of Mexico as the storm passes to the south. Waves of as much as 40 to 50 feet could hit the platforms off the Texas Coast, he estimated.

Tippee said that production across the Gulf is already being affected by oil companies pulling workers (http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/21/news/fortune500/oil_companies.reut/index.htm) off platforms ahead of the storm. And it's not just domestic oil being interrupted.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the nation's largest gateway for overseas oil, stopped accepting deliveries of its 1.2 million barrels of oil a day Wednesday afternoon due to high seas, LOOP spokeswoman Barb Hesterman told Reuters. She said the disruption was expected to be "for a short time."

But if Katrina is any guide, it could take several days after Rita passes for production to resume even at oil and gas platforms that escape damage.

"There were several days where if you could have gotten out to the platform, you could have started it back up, but you couldn't find the boats or helicopters you needed to get back to the platforms," he said.

Time to fill up - this is horrible.

Scribe, I heard that people are stuck in traffic for hours and hours.... I hope your family arrives safely and soon. Let us know if there is anything we can do to help.

I hope Texans will be okay .... my thoughts and prayers are certainly with all of those who are in the path.

They made it to Fort Worth okay. They'll be driving here tomorrow and spend the weekend. Thanks for your concern. I'll keep you updated.

How can they raise the price of gas if bush put a price cap at 3 bucks a gallon. If they do then that is gougeing. What was the point of putting a price cap on gas and not enforce it. Oh wait thats the way the government works! Make a law and not enforce it.

Where did you see that Bush put a price cap at $3/gallon?

It was said and annouced, that he did. When he signed the price cap it can not go over 20% when he signed it in. In the norman trasnscipt today gov henry and drew edmondson said they will stand by what bush has done and will not put up with the price gougeing, including anything with goods or services liike hotels, storage units being used by evacuees.
He put that cap on gas about a few weeks, I remebered hearing about it and then heard that he did. I am glad that he did so as to stop this nosense of gas gougeing, its getting old and needs to stop.