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Okay time for a new month.

Right now it looks like rain chances go up Tuesday night. Weak, moisture starved system comes through.

Then this weekend it gets bone-chillingly cold.

Looks like after the cold air moves in, we will have small 'clipper' type systems come through with snow chances. Nothing looks significant at this time until around January 15th.

Little ice pellets now falling downtown.

Snow and sleet moving into OKC metro right now, should be minimal impacts.


One of the "clipper type" systems I mentioned above, is beginning to look more significant over this coming weekend. Will have to watch it as temperatures will be plummeting at that time.

Hunch tells me this will be the month Winter finally hits.
And it could be interesting precipitation speaking. I expect heavier amounts towards the end of the month. But, we shall see.

Btw, thanks for the all the updates and analyses Anon.

This weekend there will be a weak low that swings in behind this current storm that is bringing us the overriding moisture (fog) and warmer temperatures.

Models are saying this little low will have little to no moisture until it reaches the MS river area. However, it still attempts to produce some precipitation. Right now the forecast is for this clipper low to track on the OK/KS border, giving that area the best chance for rain to snow mix. There could be a pocket/band of decent snow that develops on the deformation side of this low as it tracks east, which would likely setup to the south and west of wherever the main low tracks. This will be something interesting to watch for over the weekend to see if it unfolds. Impacts will likely be insignificant other than maybe brief moderate to heavy snow over a very localized area.


Looking ahead, temps still to drop heading into the next week until a couple days before the next system - which is still on track for around the 15th.

Hunch tells me this will be the month Winter finally hits.
And it could be interesting precipitation speaking. I expect heavier amounts towards the end of the month. But, we shall see.

Btw, thanks for the all the updates and analyses Anon.
My common sense tells me this will be the month Winter finally hits, since it's the coldest month of Winter.

My common sense tells me this will be the month Winter finally hits, since it's the coldest month of Winter.

HA! I knew there'd be a snarky response to that, which is fair.
However, I will say this: there were lots of people moaning and groaning about how "unseasonably warm" the ENTIRE month of December was.

All I was meaning is that I think it'll get bone chillingly cold this month, and people will finally have their Winter.

Okay super hard forecast tonight.

Clipper low is still coming across the state this evening. Someone will get a heavy band of snow out of it, then it will dissipate, only to reform over eastern OK into AR/MO.

The tricky part is guessing where it will setup, this is virtually impossible - and for how long the band stays alive is another mystery.

NAM puts the band somewhere in NW OK (Think Elk City to Ponca City)
GFS puts the band somewhere WC-COK (Think just west of OKC to near Stillwater)

Basically, watch the radar tonight and we will see where it sets up, but don't be caught offguard if you see some decent snowfall rates. It will likely be heavy in a very localized area. Could see 3-6" in a narrow swath somewhere.

Okay super hard forecast tonight.

Clipper low is still coming across the state this evening. Someone will get a heavy band of snow out of it, then it will dissipate, only to reform over eastern OK into AR/MO.

The tricky part is guessing where it will setup, this is virtually impossible - and for how long the band stays alive is another mystery.

NAM puts the band somewhere in NW OK (Think Elk City to Ponca City)
GFS puts the band somewhere WC-COK (Think just west of OKC to near Stillwater)

Basically, watch the radar tonight and we will see where it sets up, but don't be caught offguard if you see some decent snowfall rates. It will likely be heavy in a very localized area. Could see 3-6" in a narrow swath somewhere.

It appears to be heading toward OKC but Weather Channel predicts only 1 inch at this time. But their forecast seems to change every 30 minutes or so.

Tornado Payne on channel 9 has upped his predicted snow accumulation to 1-2 inches for central OK (10 PM Friday newscast).

Really snowing at my place this morning:

BaVTW7gkjNs

Tornado Payne on channel 9 has upped his predicted snow accumulation to 1-2 inches for central OK (10 PM Friday newscast).

:Smiley122

Really nice snowfall yesterday. Big, wet flakes, fluffy powdered sugar appearance on the ground, but didn't turn to ice or screw up driving generally. Doesn't happen too often.

Really nice snowfall yesterday. Big, wet flakes, fluffy powdered sugar appearance on the ground, but didn't turn to ice or screw up driving generally. Doesn't happen too often.It could do that a couple times a week and I'd be just fine.

Yeah, it was great. Pretty for a little bit. The kids had a lot of fun. Really nice.

Any hints as to what type of precip we can expect with the system coming in next weekend the 16th-17th ?

Any hints as to what type of precip we can expect with the system coming in next weekend the 16th-17th ?

Hopefully something that will deflate your Snowpocalypse balloon!

Hopefully something that will deflate your Snowpocalypse balloon!

Hardy har har Good one!! NOT!!

Hardy har har Good one!! NOT!!

Are you sure you're 42?

So far a chance of light snow Sunday night into Monday.

System on the 15th at this time looks like it won't affect the main part of OK, as the low doesn't catch moisture with a weird track until east of the state (will have to monitor this). Another piece of energy comes through behind it on Monday, which at this time looks to be rain to winter precipitation transition.

Another storm is showing up quickly behind that one, around the 21st.


I will note that it is unlikely that the next week or two will play out that way, as models often overestimate moisture return after a storm has passed. So when forecasting storms (especially winter) it is important to note that we won't have the best data until the storm before it has passed.

A lot of action on the horizon as a wet pattern seems to be detailing itself for the next week or so.

After this miniature warmup this week, temperatures drop on Friday.

Another "clipper" type storm comes through Saturday night into Sunday, although this one has a lot more moisture to work with. Once again track will be everything and there will likely be narrow swath of accumulating snow, while others are left out. At this time, it appears southern OK is the best shot at this.

Maybe another chance at light snow Monday/Tuesday.

Larger storm consistently showing up for the next weekend around the 22nd and 23rd.


Like my post above, we must take these systems one-at-a-time as the models sometimes get confused when there is a train of storms like this.

System this weekend is starting to look more bread and milk worthy.

Will keep this updated as we get closer to the event.

Of course I get Monday off and it snows all day....

David Payne's only concern is Storm #4, on the other side of the world, right now. That was per last night's newscast since no one is airing at this time.

Here is GFS for tomorrow:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011506/gfs_asnow_us_15.png

General 0-2 inches unless one of the snowbands really gets cranking. Also the track is favoring southern OK at the moment, exact placement won't be predictable until we see radar trends.

System this weekend is starting to look more bread and milk worthy.

Will keep this updated as we get closer to the event.

So, marathon training this weekend...

Training run tomorrow 7:00 a,m.
Sunday 7:00 a.m.

Thoughts on when system will arrive, snow either or both days? What should we expect during an outdoor run?

I posted just above your post.

I don't know where you are talking about, but assuming OKC - cold both mornings, Saturday morning possibly snowing and likely windy.

Also after this brief winter show tonight into tomorrow, we will focus on the 20th-21st.

Early preliminary estimates from GFS is 6-10 inches over I-44 area.

Well this was a dud.....

My friends got about 5inches by Arbuckle.

Latest GFS runs have the next storm dusting Eastern Oklahoma and no snow at all in the rest of the state. Similar low amounts have been consistent through the last day or so of runs. The areas that get snow just shifting some.

So is winter about over now? I saw 60s for next week.

That's what I am beginning to wonder. Looks like we are heading for a boring winter again. Sigh

I'm going to be very disappointed if we don't get at least one good snow.

That's what I am beginning to wonder. Looks like we are heading for a boring winter again. Sigh

Was the Thanksgiving ice storm not enough for you?

I would rather not have to deal with winter weather myself. It's nice when you are a kid and you get out of school, but as an adult it's mostly hassle.

If we have to put up with oppressive heat/drought in the summer the least the weather Gods could do was bless us with a decent snowstorm at least once a year.

Next chance of action looks to be around Feb 1.

Next chance of action looks to be around Feb 1.

Snow? Thunderstorms maybe?

Next chance of action looks to be around Feb 1.

That's what she said. :cool:

As of now the February 1-2 storm is very powerful. Current projected track is too far north for significant precipitation impact for OK at this time. However, it will be extremely cold after this storm passes.

Will keep this updated as we approach next month.

Here is a neat video of rain in Oklahoma during all of 2015.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtsfyNF2MwI

I'm really starting to think we are not going to get a reals snowfall this season.

Weren't the last two winters pretty similar?

Just wondering when we last had a really decent accumulation.

sure doesn't seem the same around here with Venture leaving.

I will miss Venture more when tornado season comes around. The chat room is fun to be in during the storms.

I'm really starting to think we are not going to get a reals snowfall this season.

That is perfectly fine with me.

I'm really starting to think we are not going to get a reals snowfall this season.

Weren't the last two winters pretty similar?

Just wondering when we last had a really decent accumulation.We had at least two last season that had me on the tractor plowing at work at 4:00 in the morning. But we have had much worse. Those years have me threatening to move to Florida.

The big February 1-3 storm has trended south on track every single run over the last few days. Right now heavy snow cutoff is around central Kansas.

The big February 1-3 storm has trended south on track every single run over the last few days. Right now heavy snow cutoff is around central Kansas.

So what does this mean for Oklahoma? Heavy snow or nothing?

So what does this mean for Oklahoma? Heavy snow or nothing?Latest GFS run has a couple inches in the panhandle and less the further south you go. Metro OKC is at a half inch or so.

Translated that means a 1/4 inch of snow for the metro, most likely none.

What happened to Venture?

What happened to Venture?

He moved.