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Just the facts
03-10-2014, 04:07 PM
As the search continues with no results I am curious what our resident aviation experts think happened.

I also have one question, how do they know the altitude of the aircraft at the time it disappeared?

Dustin
03-10-2014, 04:22 PM
This is like an episode of Lost.

So freaky. I can't believe they haven't found it yet.

kevinpate
03-10-2014, 04:30 PM
We are of peace. Always.


- what if it wasn't just a reboot after all?

PennyQuilts
03-10-2014, 04:40 PM
I keep thinking about the families. They must have assumed their loved ones were lost and that is awful, enough. Now? They have to be living in the hell of just not knowing and actually having hope.

Makes me wonder if the pilots were involved. Or perhaps the baggage folks on the ground who unloaded the luggage for the five people who didn't get on board (they could shift certain contents to other bags). I am perplexed that (if it turns out to be true) the plane began turning around. Mysterious.

SoonerDave
03-10-2014, 04:41 PM
As the search continues with no results I am curious what our resident aviation experts think happened.

I also have one question, how do they know the altitude of the aircraft at the time it disappeared?

No huge aviation expert here, but I have to believe the aircraft was under someone's radar observation somewhere, and I believe altitude would be part of the normal data reported...

The fact that we've not seen any damage is just mystifying. I realize some have posted speculation about it "disintegrating" in air, but one has to think of just what kind of an explosion it would take to completely vaporize an airplane.....

Dustin
03-10-2014, 04:45 PM
I keep thinking about the families. They must have assumed their loved ones were lost and that is awful, enough. Now? They have to be living in the hell of just not knowing and actually having hope.

I wouldn't be able to function. The thought of it just makes me sick to my stomach.

PennyQuilts
03-10-2014, 05:24 PM
No huge aviation expert here, but I have to believe the aircraft was under someone's radar observation somewhere, and I believe altitude would be part of the normal data reported...

The fact that we've not seen any damage is just mystifying. I realize some have posted speculation about it "disintegrating" in air, but one has to think of just what kind of an explosion it would take to completely vaporize an airplane.....

Well, they were up very high and may have been in rural area so the debris might be miniscule. But still. You'd think they would be able to pick up something on radar. This thread has to include speculation and conspiracy so I'll add that I read somewhere that the US might have the capacity to pick up on an explosion but be keeping it to themselves so as to not tip their hand on what they know and what they don't know. TWA 800 blew up flying out of NYC and they had something similar happen on the ground in Bangkok in 2001. It had to do with the center fuel tank. I personally have my doubts about TWA 800. Both those took place in plain sight but this one not so much. When I read that they had two oil slicks, I thought surely that was the plane but they've eliminated that as evidence because it isn't jet fuel.

SoonerDave
03-10-2014, 05:38 PM
Well, they were up very high and may have been in rural area so the debris might be miniscule. But still. You'd think they would be able to pick up something on radar. This thread has to include speculation and conspiracy so I'll add that I read somewhere that the US might have the capacity to pick up on an explosion but be keeping it to themselves so as to not tip their hand on what they know and what they don't know. TWA 800 blew up flying out of NYC and they had something similar happen on the ground in Bangkok in 2001. It had to do with the center fuel tank. I personally have my doubts about TWA 800. Both those took place in plain sight but this one not so much. When I read that they had two oil slicks, I thought surely that was the plane but they've eliminated that as evidence because it isn't jet fuel.

Yup, it was marine fuel. And I heard a report earlier today that said US satellite info found no evidence of a large explosion in the area.

This is just bizarre.

Snowman
03-10-2014, 06:00 PM
Well, they were up very high and may have been in rural area so the debris might be miniscule. But still. You'd think they would be able to pick up something on radar. This thread has to include speculation and conspiracy so I'll add that I read somewhere that the US might have the capacity to pick up on an explosion but be keeping it to themselves so as to not tip their hand on what they know and what they don't know. TWA 800 blew up flying out of NYC and they had something similar happen on the ground in Bangkok in 2001. It had to do with the center fuel tank. I personally have my doubts about TWA 800. Both those took place in plain sight but this one not so much. When I read that they had two oil slicks, I thought surely that was the plane but they've eliminated that as evidence because it isn't jet fuel.

Ground radar only goes out so far over water (off hand I want to say the useful range is something like 50 miles due to the curve of the earth), plus there can be dead zones from topography or natural false readings, most of the news stories I have seen saying radar probably are really talking about the signal from the transponder.

RadicalModerate
03-10-2014, 06:09 PM
Perhaps the Bermuda Triangle decided to move to Maylasia?

Achilleslastand
03-10-2014, 06:15 PM
When the plane made last contact how many hours of fuel were left? This is pure speculation but at this point maybe its time to realize you are searching in the wrong area.

PennyQuilts
03-10-2014, 06:17 PM
I always worry when my kids travel (what parent doesn't?) but my two girls, SIL and one of my grand babies flew to New Zealand and landed this morning. I was pretty on edge imagining how awful it would be if their plane just vanished. Actually, I didn't really imagine it because as soon as I tried to formulate a thought in that regard my brain would flatline.

Rajah
03-10-2014, 06:19 PM
Air traffic controllers keep track of planes via "non radar" zones due to terrain obstruction or equipment inabilities due to distance restrictions. Surely this flight was over one during this time.

PennyQuilts
03-10-2014, 06:32 PM
They said it had just entered Vietnam airspace - nothing has been reported to the effect that they weren't being tracked. I need to go look at a map of the area. For all I know, there are a number of nearby airports.

Just the facts
03-10-2014, 08:47 PM
I know the pilots can use on-board instruments to determine altitude but how do people on the ground know? I thought it was sent through the transponder, and if so, is there any way to send the wrong altitude? When the Air France flight crashed in the Atlantic it took 5 days to find the debris field but this area is heavily populated and if it exploded 10 of thousands, if not millions, of people would have seen it - especially at night. It would have been a huge flash at 35,000 feet. You would be able to see it for over a hundred miles. I am wondering if it landed somewhere. I have to think if it was a terrorist bomb someone would have claimed responsibility by now.

OKCisOK4me
03-10-2014, 08:53 PM
There is a Bermuda Triangle over on that side of the planet but it is off the coast of Japan, so I doubt that would be it. It does seem like a Flight 815 scenario OR the movie Millinium with Kris Kristopherson except that the future kept the plane too.

Just the facts
03-10-2014, 08:54 PM
Never mind, it seems they have found parts of the plane.

Searchers Report Spotting Plane Debris - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304732804579427991198487418)

LocoAko
03-10-2014, 09:03 PM
Never mind, it seems they have found parts of the plane.

Searchers Report Spotting Plane Debris - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304732804579427991198487418)

That article is from yesterday afternoon. IIRC they've disproved the connection with that debris since then.

Just the facts
03-10-2014, 09:07 PM
That article is from yesterday afternoon. IIRC they've disproved the connection with that debris since then.

Yep - just read that it wasn't part of the plane.

Malaysia Crash Search Taps Technology as Debris Eludes - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-10/mysteries-of-deep-often-yield-when-jets-crash-over-water.html)

Achilleslastand
03-10-2014, 09:49 PM
This has to be unprecedented. Almost 72 hours since she went missing and still nothing. If the plane did in fact have several hours of fuel left their search radius is going to have be pretty huge. I keep thinking back about what happened to Payne Stewart and wondering if that could have happened to all crew and passengers in this case.

Snowman
03-10-2014, 10:09 PM
This has to be unprecedented. Almost 72 hours since she went missing and still nothing. If the plane did in fact have several hours of fuel left their search radius is going to have be pretty huge. I keep thinking back about what happened to Payne Stewart and wondering if that could have happened to all crew and passengers in this case.

You would have to add some qualifiers for 72 hours to be unprecedented

ljbab728
03-10-2014, 10:18 PM
You would have to add some qualifiers for 72 hours to be unprecedented

True. I think it's been a little more than 72 hours since we last heard from Amelia.

catch22
03-10-2014, 10:34 PM
I know the pilots can use on-board instruments to determine altitude but how do people on the ground know? I thought it was sent through the transponder, and if so, is there any way to send the wrong altitude? When the Air France flight crashed in the Atlantic it took 5 days to find the debris field but this area is heavily populated and if it exploded 10 of thousands, if not millions, of people would have seen it - especially at night. It would have been a huge flash at 35,000 feet. You would be able to see it for over a hundred miles. I am wondering if it landed somewhere. I have to think if it was a terrorist bomb someone would have claimed responsibility by now.

Radar scopes combine two sets of data to correctly track airplanes.

Primary display is pure radar data. There is no information being transmitted, just radar reflections. Dots moving around.
Secondary display is transponder interrogation.

At the beginning of a flight, controllers assign a 4-digit squawk code to the flight plan of the airplane. On the runway (or at airports with Ground Radar -- at the beginning of taxi), the pilots will switch their transponder on and set it to Mode C. Under Mode C, when the ground based transponder interrogator makes a sweep (on the same sweep rate and radial as the primary radar -- in sync) and the transponder gets pinged, it immediately broadcasts the unique transponder code, and the aircraft's unique HEX transponder identifier, and the pressure altitude. The primary radar reports the position of a dot, and at the same time the secondary reported a transponder in the same exact location, it identifies that dot as a particular aircraft. It then grabs the data -- gets the squawk code which identifies the flight number, flight plan, aircraft type, and other information in the flight plan database, and displays that information next to the primary target. In the data stream, the aircraft's reported altitude was in the Mode C transmission, and is also reported next to the primary target.

http://gyazo.com/29273340fc420681074d4c5300de0981.png

Top text is the callsign
Bottom left is Altitude in thousands (025 is 2,500 ft)
Bottom right is calculated ground speed based on the distance the target moved between sweeps.

The N in the middle of the target, means that radar sector N has control of that aircraft (Which is facility specific -- basically what workstation has control). C is a different controller/radar workstation, so the data doesn't fully display since another controller has control of that airplane.

Basically secondary data reports all the information, and applies it to the primary target.

gjl
03-10-2014, 10:38 PM
I also have one question, how do they know the altitude of the aircraft at the time it disappeared?

All general and commercial aviation aircraft should equipped with an altitude reporting transponder. There may be even more sophisticated altitude reporting devices on commercial aircraft.

The fact that there wasn't even a mayday call indicates that what ever happened, the pilot and copilot had to have been incapacitated pretty much instantly. It doesn't take but pushing a button with your thumb and speaking into the mike in front of your mouth to issue a mayday call.

Snowman
03-10-2014, 10:43 PM
All general and commercial aviation aircraft should equipped with an altitude reporting transponder. There may be even more sophisticated altitude reporting devices on commercial aircraft.

The fact that there wasn't even a mayday call indicates that what ever happened, the pilot and copilot had to have been incapacitated pretty much instantly. It doesn't take but pushing a button with your thumb and speaking into the mike in front of your mouth to issue a mayday call.

It also could indicate the problem impacted their electrical systems/radio or that what ever happened was very quick and they never had the time to get through there initial reactions to start sending a mayday call

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 06:34 AM
Thanks Cath22 - that is what I thought but didn't know for sure. Some of what I read indicated they were not in range of the secondary sweep and if that is the case ground personnel couldn't know altitude or air speed. I have no idea if being out of range is true or not but the fact that they aren't even sure if the plane turned around or not suggest to me that it might be. Also odd is that many of the cell phones carried by passengers are still operational and some show to be logged into instant messaging services - which I would think would make locating them easy peasy. Just find the tower receiving the signal and the phones would have to be within a few of miles of it.

tomokc
03-11-2014, 06:41 AM
No hearing a distress call isn't atypical. With AF447 there was four minutes, 23 seconds between autopilot disconnect to the end of the CVR recording as it climbed to 38,000 feet and then descended to the ocean surface - no radio call was made. (However, the ACARS system sent numerous automated messages to AF in the last three minutes of flight, having to do with failing aircraft systems.) Pilots are taught to "aviate, navigate and communicate" in that order. Telling someone that you're about to crash won't lessen the likelihood of it happening. Focus on a solution.

The aircraft disappeared in a large part of the world with lots of water, not a lot of people, very good radar & radio coverage, and SAR resources less than what we're accustomed to in the US and Europe. The wreckage is likely submerged - nothing has been heard from ELTs, nothing has been found from the air. The pingers on the FDR/CVR are good for 30 days, but the audible range is less than four miles. Good news - the water in the likely search area is shallow, so when the aircraft and passengers/crew are found, the recovery will be much easier than AF447 (13,000 feet under the South Atlantic).

EDIT: Every cellphone discussion I've read is invalid. Callers state that their calls to these phone are either ringing or going straight to VM, and neither necessarily indicates whether or not these phones are on & within range of a cell tower. Use common sense: cellphones must be near cell towers in order to function, and that means civilization. If a loaded B-777 crashed in civilization we'd know it.

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 06:49 AM
I have to disagree with "not a lot of people". That is one of the most heavily populated parts of the world with thousands of boats/ships in the water at any given moment. I don't see any way this thing crashed in the ocean, or exploded in the air, and someone not see or hear it. You are right about shallow water though. The water in this area is 50 to 150 feet deep. At that depth assuming it didn't break apart the tail section would be sticking out of the water.

kelroy55
03-11-2014, 07:07 AM
I have to disagree with "not a lot of people". That is one of the most heavily populated parts of the world with thousands of boats/ships in the water at any given moment. I don't see any way this thing crashed in the ocean, or exploded in the air, and someone not see or hear it. You are right about shallow water though. The water in this area is 50 to 150 feet deep. At that depth assuming it didn't break apart the tail section would be sticking out of the water.


That may not be the case where this plane was at....

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370's route heading north from Kuala Lumpur was over sparsely populated and heavily forested mountainous areas of Malaysia and the Gulf of Thailand.

Opinion: Why so few clues about missing Malaysia flight? - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/10/opinion/palmer-malaysia-aircraft-air-france/index.html?hpt=hp_bn7)

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 07:40 AM
If the plane made it over land and away from the shoreline then yes it would have gone into an area of low population density, but the last radar image showed it over the water. It would have had to fly a long ways without being picked up by anyone's radar.

tomokc
03-11-2014, 08:01 AM
Radar technology and coverage in that part of the world isn't very good. Again, you can't think first world, eastern seaboard, New York TRACON with multiple (sometimes redundant) radars (including civilian & military) looking across high and low sectors, ACARS, ADS-B, and the rest of it. This is a remote area.

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 08:58 AM
I think they are either going to find it on a mountainside in Vietnam or a thousand miles out in the Indian Ocean.

kelroy55
03-11-2014, 10:17 AM
I think they are either going to find it on a mountainside in Vietnam or a thousand miles out in the Indian Ocean.

Either one is going to be a nightmare to investigate.

Plutonic Panda
03-11-2014, 12:00 PM
No hearing a distress call isn't atypical. With AF447 there was four minutes, 23 seconds between autopilot disconnect to the end of the CVR recording as it climbed to 38,000 feet and then descended to the ocean surface - no radio call was made. (However, the ACARS system sent numerous automated messages to AF in the last three minutes of flight, having to do with failing aircraft systems.) Pilots are taught to "aviate, navigate and communicate" in that order. Telling someone that you're about to crash won't lessen the likelihood of it happening. Focus on a solution.

The aircraft disappeared in a large part of the world with lots of water, not a lot of people, very good radar & radio coverage, and SAR resources less than what we're accustomed to in the US and Europe. The wreckage is likely submerged - nothing has been heard from ELTs, nothing has been found from the air. The pingers on the FDR/CVR are good for 30 days, but the audible range is less than four miles. Good news - the water in the likely search area is shallow, so when the aircraft and passengers/crew are found, the recovery will be much easier than AF447 (13,000 feet under the South Atlantic).

EDIT: Every cellphone discussion I've read is invalid. Callers state that their calls to these phone are either ringing or going straight to VM, and neither necessarily indicates whether or not these phones are on & within range of a cell tower. Use common sense: cellphones must be near cell towers in order to function, and that means civilization. If a loaded B-777 crashed in civilization we'd know it.There are more people that live in that part of the world than outside of it. That is the most heavily populated part of the world.

catch22
03-11-2014, 12:05 PM
I'm liking the hole in the fabric of time and space theory more and more as each hour passes.

Plutonic Panda
03-11-2014, 12:08 PM
I'm liking the hole in the fabric of time and space theory more and more as each hour passes.Lucky bastards ;)

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 12:09 PM
I'm liking the hole in the fabric of time and space theory more and more as each hour passes.

FhbrLjcAPw0

catch22
03-11-2014, 12:12 PM
I need some mushrooms.

Is that serious?

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 12:37 PM
I need some mushrooms.

Is that serious?

As serious as a heart attack.

The Langoliers (TV Mini-Series 1995) - IMDb (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112040/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1)

catch22
03-11-2014, 12:46 PM
As serious as a heart attack.

The Langoliers (TV Mini-Series 1995) - IMDb (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0112040/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1)

Geez.

Richard at Remax
03-11-2014, 12:50 PM
One of the best made for TV movies. I remember watching it as a kid and didn't sleep too well afterwards

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 12:58 PM
One of the best made for TV movies. I remember watching it as a kid and didn't sleep too well afterwards

I couldn't sleep well after watching it either - but probably for a whole different reason :).

Now if you want a time vortex movie that kicks **** - The Final Countdown

The Final Countdown (1980) - IMDb (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0080736/)

IdHNfpYxNWg

Richard at Remax
03-11-2014, 01:03 PM
the only theory I have is that they somehow lost all power and radio and had to make an emergency water landing like the plane on the Hudson. Only difference was that the plane was more severly damaged, then just sank whole.

tomokc
03-11-2014, 01:06 PM
There are more people that live in that part of the world than outside of it. That is the most heavily populated part of the world.

I don't know how you quantify either of your two statements. MH370 departed Malaysia and may have flown over parts of Thailand, Cambodia or Vietnam. Of 192 countries ranked by population density, Malaysia ranks 96, Thailand 58, Cambodia 94 and Vietnam 30. MH370 also overflew the Gulf of Thailand, intended to fly over the South China Sea, and is now being reported to have possibly flown over the Malacca Strait towards the Andaman Sea. Three of those four bodies of water are open sea.

You can describe population density any way you want, but in this region there have been no verified reports of a B-777 for four days now. If I could choose anywhere in the world I'd want to wait for a quick rescue following a plane crash, this wouldn't be it.

FritterGirl
03-11-2014, 01:07 PM
FhbrLjcAPw0I still remember reading the book (long before I saw the movie). Had nightmares for weeks. Sad to say a similar scenario has crossed my mind this week, as unlikely as that seems.

Per the latest news, it now appears as if the plane flew completely off course by several hundred kilometers to the west. Now the question remains where did the plane land (or crash-land), if it did that at all. Terrible for all involved.

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 01:16 PM
They might as well start searching airports in Sri Lanka and Somalia.

kelroy55
03-11-2014, 01:25 PM
They might as well start searching airports in Sri Lanka and Somalia.

I'm pretty sure satellites already watch them.

Just the facts
03-11-2014, 01:33 PM
I'm pretty sure satellites already watch them.

If only we had the level of government we pay for. Based on the latest it is pretty clear there was active attempt to avoid detection and if destroying the plane was a goal it could have easily been done at any time. No need to turn off transponders and fly below civilian radar to do that.

Laramie
03-11-2014, 01:42 PM
They might as well start searching airports in Sri Lanka and Somalia.

The history of sea pirating in those areas are documented.

It's strange how world technology can track and trace phone calls; yet we lose sight of something as large as 300-seat (239 passenger) Boeing 777 jet.


http://www.thunderfans.com/vforum/images/smilies/okc.gif "Oklahoma City looks oh-so pretty... ...as I get my kicks on Route 66." --Nat King Cole.http://www.thunderfans.com/vforum/images/smilies/okc.gif

hoya
03-11-2014, 01:51 PM
FhbrLjcAPw0

This was the first thing I thought. The Langoliers got 'em.

blangtang
03-12-2014, 11:23 PM
I snipped a couple things from this WSJ article, there is a lot of confusing info out there, I see this as new and interesting...

-----

"U.S. investigators suspect that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 stayed in the air for about four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky.

Aviation investigators and national security officials believe the plane flew for a total of five hours based on data automatically downloaded and sent to the ground from the Boeing Co. BA -0.99% 777's engines as part of a routine maintenance and monitoring program."

.....

"A total flight time of five hours after departing Kuala Lumpur means the Boeing 777 could have continued for an additional distance of about 2,200 nautical miles, reaching points as far as the Indian Ocean, the border of Pakistan or even the Arabian Sea, based on the jet's cruising speed."

U.S. Investigators Suspect Missing Airplane Flew On for Hours - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/news/article_email/SB10001424052702304914904579434653903086282-lMyQjAxMTA0MDEwMzExNDMyWj)

SoonerQueen
03-13-2014, 12:41 AM
No plane debris found at spot shown by China's satellite images, Malaysian aviation chief says - @AP

venture
03-13-2014, 03:34 AM
WSJ reporting that the engines were still sending data back for a few hours after contact was lost. I'm starting to wonder if we are seeing a repeat of Helios 522. That flight suffered a significant decompression and loss of oxygen that knocked everyone out. The aircraft continued until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the terrain.

Just the facts
03-13-2014, 06:30 AM
WSJ reporting that the engines were still sending data back for a few hours after contact was lost. I'm starting to wonder if we are seeing a repeat of Helios 522. That flight suffered a significant decompression and loss of oxygen that knocked everyone out. The aircraft continued until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the terrain.

I doubt it - someone manually turned off both transponders. If there was power for the engines to send data the was power for the transponders.

kelroy55
03-13-2014, 06:34 AM
This whole thing is getting weirder by the day.

tomokc
03-13-2014, 06:34 AM
The big difference between MH370 & Helios 522 is that the latter was never out of radar contact, and was even tracked by two F-16s whose pilots made close visual inspections of the passenger cabin and flight deck.

I trust information coming from Boeing and Rolls Royce far more than the Malaysian government, and the WSJ reporter - Andy Pasztor - is the best aviation reporter in the business.

Snowman
03-13-2014, 06:53 AM
I doubt it - someone manually turned off both transponders. If there was power for the engines to send data the was power for the transponders.

What does that have to do with anything with the Helios flight, it's problem was a slow depressurization due to having the pressurization system incorrectly set to manual before takeoff, then mistaking the warning the plane gave when it detected pressure was getting low (plus missing the multiple times checklists and an engineer stated that should have been checked).

If the pilots were suffering from hypoxia they might have mistakenly turned off the transponders trying to fix the actual problem.

Just the facts
03-13-2014, 07:03 AM
So the 2200 mile radius is based on data from the engines, and not fuel onboard. Does anyone know how this data is transmitted by the engines. Does it go to a satellite or does it require some earth-based relay station which it might have been out of range of? If it does go to a satellite do they have global coverage or are there dead zones? The Air France flight sent data right up to impact but how it sends the data was never mentioned either.

jn1780
03-13-2014, 07:34 AM
The big difference between MH370 & Helios 522 is that the latter was never out of radar contact, and was even tracked by two F-16s whose pilots made close visual inspections of the passenger cabin and flight deck.

I trust information coming from Boeing and Rolls Royce far more than the Malaysian government, and the WSJ reporter - Andy Pasztor - is the best aviation reporter in the business.

I'm not sure I trust that report. I would think Boeing and Rolls Royce would be waving their hands in the air more, if they felt confident data was still being sent.

Just the facts
03-13-2014, 07:45 AM
No doubt it seems a lot of what I would consider basic data collection simply didn't take place. There are multiple ways in which this plane communicates with people outside the aircraft and the investigators didn't appear to collect any of that data up front, so the info just comes trickling out slowly from every nook and cranny.