Then you saw it wrong. I'm not making this up. And, I didn't say OKC was not in the area. You must have trouble with your reading also. Your link is not the same one she had on at 10 something.

I agree. I watched all three forecasts tonight and KFOR is the only one that said OKC was the direct bullseye for a possible tornado outbreak tomorrow. The other two stations included OKC in the risk area but did mentioned that its possible the risk area will be farther east depending on where the dry line ends up.

Then you saw it wrong. I'm not making this up. And, I didn't say OKC was not in the area. You must have trouble with your reading also. Your link is not the same one she had on at 10 something.

You indicated from the other stations that the risk was slightly north and east of the OKC metro so how does that include OKC in the area? I don't think I had any problem reading that. LOL


All other weather folk have the biggest risk for tomorrow slightly north and east of OKC metro.

This constant bashing of KFOR is really rather silly.

I am currently in far southeastern Oklahoma and I was planning in driving back up to the city at around noon today. Would that be a good idea or should I leave earlier? I don't want to drive into hail.

I am currently in far southeastern Oklahoma and I was planning in driving back up to the city at around noon today. Would that be a good idea or should I leave earlier? I don't want to drive into hail.

Leave earlier. Try to be in OKC by three or four at the latest.

Much of that severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled and now only includes a rather small portion of the northeast quadrant of Oklahoma but including Tulsa and Bartlesville:
Stillwater Weather - Advisories, Watches, Warnings, Etc. (http://stillwaterweather.com/advisories.php)

New Day 1 will be out shortly so I'm not going to bother posting the existing one right now. However, at present the Moderate risk is for all of the OKC Metro area roughly US 81 and east down to Elgin down to Wynnewood and then back to the northeast right of a line from Seminole to Bixby to Miami.

Day 2 Moderate Risk again (it is the 45% area on the map)...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN KS/W CENTRAL
AND SWRN MO SWWD INTO CENTRAL OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD INTO N CENTRAL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS THE SD/NEB
VICINITY...WHILE A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
LOW EJECTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD. WHILE A SECOND LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE PAC
NW COAST LATE...THE CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE SYSTEM OF
INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL ON MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SD VICINITY
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK SHIFTS INTO
THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SWRN OK VICINITY...NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND A DEVELOPING DRYLINE. THE COLD FRONT
AND DRYLINE SHOULD SERVE AS PRIMARY FOCI FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD/SEVERE STORMS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
WHILE DETAILS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD/INTERVENING CONVECTION...ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST MONDAY/DAY 2 ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

WEAKENING/DIMINISHING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BUT AS STORMS/CLOUDINESS WANE THROUGH THE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...EXPECT THE ONSET OF HEATING TO DRIVE STRONG
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE
PRE-FRONTAL/PRE-DRYLINE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FEATURE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING
JET STREAK AND FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES --
INCREASES...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT/RAPID GROWTH OF INITIAL CONVECTION
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. AS SHEAR INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH INTENSIFYING FLOW ALOFT...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY ACQUIRE
ROTATION -- PARTICULARLY WHERE CAPE/SHEAR JUXTAPOSITION APPEARS MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. HERE...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST. THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE EVENING...AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS IN
SOME AREAS. EVEN SO...ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD LINGER
LOCALLY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS -- WITH CONTINUED TORNADO AND
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THREAT SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY COOLS/STABILIZES -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_any.gif

New moderate risk is out and is roughly for the same area in OK.

Moderate Risk - East of a line from Medford to Kingfisher to Chickasha to just east of Duncan and then north of a line from Duncan to Sulphur to Ada to Muskogee to Jay.
Slight Risk surrounds it on the western edge it runs from Alva to Watonga to Lawton to Wichita Falls.

10% Tornado risk, including the hatched area for strong tornadoes, runs east of US 81 down to Chickasha over to Purcell and McAlester back up to Tahlequah. There is also a 15% tornado risk area now North and East of line from Newkirki to Pawnee to Stroud to Okmulgee to Muskogee and up to Tahlequah.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KS...WESTERN MO...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...KS/MO/OK...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF TX/OK. THIS
AIR MASS IS POISED TO RETURN RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO BY MID AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER THE REGION.

A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS CAP WILL INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING/MIXING ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH FORCING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER EASTERN KS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20-23Z. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES...BUT A FEW SUBTLE STORM-SCALE DETAILS WILL INFLUENCE THE
OUTCOME. ONE PROBLEM MAY BE THE DEGREE OF HEATING REQUIRED TO BREAK
THE CAP OVER OK AND THE RESULTING LCL HEIGHTS. NEVERTHELESS...VERY
HIGH CAPE VALUES /MLCAPE OVER 4000 J/KG/ MAY OFFSET THE NEGATIVE
INFLUENCES SO HAVE INCREASED TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...RAPIDLY
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AFTER 00Z /0-3KM HELICITY VALUES RISING
TO 300-500 M2/S2/ WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AS FAR EAST
AS SOUTHWEST MO.

OTHERWISE...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0+ C/KM WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF VERY LARGE
HAIL. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE AFTER DARK AND SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MO WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS.

One thing to note is that the HRRR keeps things high and dry in OK and it has by far been the model of choice the past few days:

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013051910/t5/cref_t5sfc_f15.png

As I was saying yesterday and in previous outlooks, prior day activity always make these forecasts complicated. So let's try to break it down some. Sky condition wise we are completely clear, for the most part, south of the northern 2 rows of counties. There are some congested CU in Lincoln and Pott counties, some left over showers in far eastern OK, and some showers/storms along the cold front in the OK panhandle. Winds are mostly South to SSE of over of the state south of what would appear to be a boundary in Northern OK. The areas under the clouds are mostly variable to East winds, but NW OK is backing to the SE. The western Panhandle behind the front has gusty NW winds.

The dryline today is starting to bulge in some to West Central OK as dewpoints in Erick are down to 36 already. West Texas mesonet shows extremely dry air back behind the dryline which is why we see Red Flag Warnings up for NW TX today. Unfortunately we don't have a morning sounding yet from Norman, but should be available soon. Mesoanalysis from SPC shows much of the area is pretty strongly capped and high CIN values over much of the state. The only erosion so far is in far SW OK where the dryline is pushing through. CAPE values are generally around 1000 j/kg so far (going by it) but SW OK is showing values in excess of 2500 j/kg already. With the bright sunshine expect a lot of baking today to really heat things up.

The Norman sounding just came in, so will hit on that now. Strong cap in place (8.7) right now so that's going to keep things quiet. CAPE at 1605 which is pretty unstable. Helicity is really high right now but that will work out through the day and rebuild later. LCLs are at 932 but except them to go up some. Right now 932 mb appears to be around 850 meters up. Storm motions right now would be NE at 35 mph which is acceptable speeds for warning lead times.

Short term models aren't showing much in the way of development for today, but we are still waiting on the morning 12Z model runs as well. Expect most storms to start firing by mid afternoon in the Slight Risk area to the west and then gradually increase in quantity as they move into the moderate risk area.

http://wedgefest.wind.ttu.edu/gem_images/L_nwsama_plot.gif
http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TDEW.grad.png?1368968467713

http://climate.cod.edu/data/raob/KOUN/skewt/KOUN.skewt.20130519.12.gif

One thing to note is that the HRRR keeps things high and dry in OK and it has by far been the model of choice the past few days:


11Z is run is slowly filling in now and has much of the same. It keeps the dryline completely capped off and only a few storms along the cold front in far northern OK and maybe 1 or 2 in Osage down to Pawnee counties. I'm not sure how realistic that is with the amount of uninhibited heating we are going to have today and just the sharp contrast on the dryline. A 30 to up to 50 degree difference in dewpoint temps is pretty significant. The interesting thing to me is how it is going to handle the dryline. Right now it isn't too far off on position, but isn't drying it out enough behind it. It does punch it east pretty quick and has it on the western edge of Oklahoma/McClain/Logan counties by 2PM but then puts the brakes on and it sits pretty much on a Stillwater - Norman - Duncan line until retreating after dark.

Wait and see I guess. Yesterday we were all pointing out how great HRRR did, but that was only with the SW convection since just about everything busted with NW OK. :) Wouldn't be the first day for the cap to crush a potentially significant day, but I think that also has to be taken into consideration. If the cap holds longer, the instability will build even more making it more volatile should something be able to break through.

I agree that with CIN forecasted to go to nearly nil later this afternoon it seems questionable at best that the HRRR would prevent precip from breaking out. With that being said, my chase target today is going to be Kingfisher, OK. After sifting through all the morning model data it appears this will be a location fairly close to the triple point (intersection of prog'd sfc low, dryline, and boundary positions). We will watch the dryline closely and monitor its location to determine how quickly we need to move east.

I agree that with CIN forecasted to go to nearly nil later this afternoon it seems questionable at best that the HRRR would prevent precip from breaking out. With that being said, my chase target today is going to be Kingfisher, OK. After sifting through all the morning model data it appears this will be a location fairly close to the triple point (intersection of prog'd sfc low, dryline, and boundary positions). We will watch the dryline closely and monitor its location to determine how quickly we need to move east.

Yeah I would definitely play the triple point today. 12Z HRRR starting to show more precip closer to central OK, so perhaps it is finally trending away from the all dry scenario. Now if we could just answer why it isn't loading any South Central close in images, but yet has every other region loaded. LOL

Dryline placement definitely huge today on how far east it gets...

This first image is at 3PM showing most of the CIN ahead of the dryline gone with very high instability to play with.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/SGP/rapSGP_con_sbcape_008.gif

These are images at 7PM showing the increasing favorable conditions for tornadic storms...

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/SGP/rapSGP_con_stp_012.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/SGP/rapSGP_con_scp_012.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/12/SGP/rapSGP_con_1kmhel_012.gif

Close up of HRRR...first hint of storms in Central OK

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013051912/t5/cref_t5sfc_f09.png

12Z HRRR is also starting to hold the dryline back a but further now to where it won't clear I-35.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013051912/t5/dewp_t52m_f12.png

What does the projected dry line placement mean for OKC?

So if it ends up right along I35 what exactly does that mean for us in central Oklahoma. We get hit with storms that are just getting rolling or could they get nasty right off the bat?

The call for C OK today is all based on if anything fires from the dryline push this afternoon.

And if it does, does it have time to get cranking before it is passed OKC?


OKC may dodge today. Tulsa will get most definitely get some fun.



Just keep being weather aware today and go about your business. If anything pops just W or SW of OKC, it will probably have time to evolve into massive hail dumpers.

So if it ends up right along I35 what exactly does that mean for us in central Oklahoma. We get hit with storms that are just getting rolling or could they get nasty right off the bat?

These things could easily go severe with in 15 minutes of forming today with the instability. So it just depends.

14Z update is in, and it continues the trend of slowing the dryline down and forming storms along it.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013051914/t5/dewp_t52m_f09.png

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013051914/t5/cref_t5sfc_f07.png

Anything relevant in the observation of cumulus trying to build in mid OK county and scoot rapidly to the NE?

Anything relevant in the observation of cumulus trying to build in mid OK county and scoot rapidly to the NE?

Just overall indication of instability. I'm going to be focusing more on the dryline out west. There are some CU going up along it now.

New Day 1 outlook is out...almost zero change to anything. So not going to bother posting it.

CU picking up a bit more out west now. Will probably see an MCD come out in an hour or so and a watch around 2 or 3. Explosive development is quite possible today with them going severe in a minutes. So stay alert.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/1km/Oklahoma/current/Oklahoma.vis.gif

Sorry for the ton of images, just want to show how things are coming together.

15Z RAP showing storms forming west of Metro by 4PM. The next imagine, which I won't put here, has a line of storms by 5PM all up and down I-35.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/RAP/15/SGP/rapSGP_sfc_radar_006.gif

Latest from Norman...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD...
TO ENID...TO EL RENO...TO LAWTON...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAWTON...TO PAULS VALLEY...TO SEMINOLE. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS
THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AND IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM
ARNETT...TO HOBART...TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.


IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO MORE THAN 70 MPH
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA FROM NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY TO
MEDFORD AND PONCA CITY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 2 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WARM...HUMID...AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
ARE DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY MID-AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING
IS FORECAST TO GREATLY WEAKEN THE INVERSION. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE
EAST FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...PLUS
SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD PUSH A FEW UPDRAFTS
THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION. THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT... AND WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
ROTATING UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY MAY 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE VERY
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS
PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OKLAHOMA. THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

First MCD...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0697.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SCNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEB
AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191751Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z...MOST LIKELY OVER
SCNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK. STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WARM SECTOR OVER ERN KS...NERN OK AND EVENTUALLY WRN MO THIS
EVENING. INITIAL THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM WRN TX INTO
FAR WRN OK THEN NWWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS A
COLD FRONT. A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER AND HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES AN EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN
OK. UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR
BENEATH VERY STEEP /8-9 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. WARM AIR AT THE BASE OF
THE EML IS SERVING TO CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SFC BASED STORMS IN
THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE LOCATED WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT
REGION AS WELL AS DRYLINE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED
TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

MID-UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN
50+ KT DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL
ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...AND THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY.

I think things will fire W of OKC, by just enough to maybe get some action here.


The dryline is moving just slow enough. Nice CU field riding along it. Will probably initiate within the next 2 hours.

Anon, agree completely. We are in the chat ready to go. :)

On Facebook, it's reported that Reed Timmer is positioning his Dominators just to the north of the Oklahoma City area.

I think things will fire W of OKC, by just enough to maybe get some action here.


The dryline is moving just slow enough. Nice CU field riding along it. Will probably initiate within the next 2 hours.

Shouldn't we have a watch at this point?

Shouldn't we have a watch at this point?

MCD just came out. Stand by.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0698.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN...CNTRL...AND SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 191845Z - 191945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OK. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY
AND POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW
TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SHOWS A DRYLINE RAPIDLY MIXING
EWD ACROSS WRN OK...ATTENDANT TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NWRN
OK...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL
OK. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS FAR NRN OK...BUT UNIFORM SLY WINDS WERE NOTED ON BOTH
SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED LINE OF
CU WAS NOTED PRECEDING THE DRYLINE...ORIENTED SW-NE FROM NEAR A 30 E
CSM TO 15 NW END LINE...WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER IMPULSE
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER.

STRONG SFC HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF OK...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER CU FORMING MORE RECENTLY BUT STILL EXHIBITING CAPPED/FLAT
CHARACTER. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH
FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S F WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SHOULD RESULT IN EROSION OF
THE SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION NOTED IN THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING. AS
THIS OCCURS...DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS
LIKELY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS.
TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACCOMPANYING SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AS WIND
PROFILES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.

RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION
SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA BETWEEN
20-21Z...AND PERHAPS AFTER 21Z ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL OK. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/19/2013

KOCO's slide show predictor has the metro barely dodging today's events. It looks like Tulsa may get the brunt of it.

KOCO's slide show predictor has the metro barely dodging today's events. It looks like Tulsa may get the brunt of it.

Take the TV station's short term models and just throw them in the garbage. They are worthless 80% of the time.

I also dislike that they are used in a way that people will view them as literally "this is what the radar will look like" instead of approximate activity will happen but could be offset by 50 to 100 miles in either direction.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0182_radar.gif

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Mod (30%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA


* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.


* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


&&


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW 181...


DISCUSSION...THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEARS LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE ADVECTING AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE ON 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES THROUGH A MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE CAPE...THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BY EARLY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAINTAINING THE RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A COUPLE OF LONG-LIVED/LONG TRACK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

I wouldn't be surprised if today and tomorrow are worse than yesterday

Take the TV station's short term models and just throw them in the garbage. They are worthless 80% of the time.

I also dislike that they are used in a way that people will view them as literally "this is what the radar will look like" instead of approximate activity will happen but could be offset by 50 to 100 miles in either direction.


The most people need certainty. They tune in to the news to find out what will happen, not what may or may not happen depending on this and that scientific term they don't understand. Maybe they shouldn't cater to the lowest common denominator, but that's a different argument.

I wouldn't be surprised if today and tomorrow are worse than yesterday

It always was suppose to be. :)


The most people need certainty. They tune in to the news to find out what will happen, not what may or may not happen depending on this and that scientific term they don't understand. Maybe they shouldn't cater to the lowest common denominator, but that's a different argument.

Yeah. I just think it is an inherent flaw of using a simulated radar reflectivity product like they do. People just don't know how to actually understand it. Of course some of the OCMs in the market portray it as an actual representation of what the radar will look like and that is their fault.

Warning for Canadian County coming soon. Moving over to the chat since this stuff is going fast.

Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

The most people need certainty. They tune in to the news to find out what will happen, not what may or may not happen depending on this and that scientific term they don't understand. Maybe they shouldn't cater to the lowest common denominator, but that's a different argument.

Meteorologists surely wish the same, but meteorology is still an inexact science to fully figure out.

Warning for Canadian County coming soon. Moving over to the chat since this stuff is going fast.

Live Chat | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?page_id=40)

It going strong in northwest Oklahoma, outside the watch area.

It going strong in northwest Oklahoma, outside the watch area.

They are building up now,look out folks!

Towering cumulus about 50 miles southwest of Norman

Having major chat issues. Posts being accepted but not showing up.

Tornado warring for OKC area now

Having major chat issues. Posts being accepted but not showing up.

Mine showed up but isn't the page supposed to auto refresh?

Mike morgan just gave a heads up for norman!

Sirens going off in Edmond

Tornado on the ground 15th/Bryant - Coltrane. Damage. Take cover if you're near this area and not watching coverage.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/19-6.png

Heavy circulation right along US 66 near Pops, moving NE. This is near Luther and they're saying could drop a tornado at any time.

Newcastle, Blanchard are also in the middle of a large thunderstorm. Sirens for this area are sounding now.

Mile and a half north of Luther, half-mile wide tornado on the ground. Debris in the air. Wellston take cover. Get your radio on.
92.5 is covering channel 9 television audio. Not sure about the others.

Payne and Val are reporting 1/2 mile wide turning into a wedge tornado, debris ball is a mile wide. This is a serious situation. Payne says EF4, Val thinks EF5. Reporting serious damage now. Non-survivable if you're above ground per channel 9.

Channel 9 has the only sky shot of a HUGE wedge tornado. Mile across by radar. Wellston - take cover and listen to coverage. Don't mess with us here.

Mike Morgan said this will wipe every house to the ground. Must be below ground! I think Mike is all too accurate this time.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/may13/ktlx_20130519_21571.png

Gary said this storm reminds him of a storm he "doesn't even want to think about" which means, obviously, May 3rd of '99. Carney is in the path of this storm now. Over 150mph.

Chad is an eyewitness to homes being torn up in Carney. He sounds very sad and shocked. If you're in the path of this storm and not watching or listening to TV or radio, take cover and get the radio on and stay underground. Multi-vortex tornado at possibly EF5 strength.

Heads up in the Newcastle area.....

Funnel just east of 62 and north of highway 9. Wall cloud and heavy rotation, heading toward Norman, will pass I-35 near Riverwind.

I just wanted to pass along info if you're in an office and can't get information easily, but I have to go now. Everybody should be on TV or radio now. Be safe.