Mike Morgan says this coming event for OKC Sunday and Monday is going to be huge, with possible violent tornadoes and extremely large hail. NOAA seems to suggest the highest tornado threat will be Monday in eastern Oklahoma.

At least from my observations people who live in the OKC are generally far more educated and alert to the dangers of tornadoes than people are in the Dallas area..Given the exact same WX circumstances I feel very certain that a major tornado would kill far more people in the Dallas area than in the OKC area.
For that we have our local weather community to thank….

In spite of the bigger TV market Dallas TV doesn’t devote near as much time and money in covering tornadoes….

Obviously, Oklahoma also sometimes gets injuries and fatalities from severe weather but I have to wonder if the possibility of that happening in places like the Dallas area isn't higher because of a lack of the comprehensive coverage that we get.

Growing up there, I can definitely tell you people were nowhere near as "weather aware" as we are here. In fact, a lot of people would complain if weather coverage went too long even if it was a serious storm. I had a good friend who until recently worked for the ABC affiliate and they would get a torrent of angry emails if programs were interrupted for weather (OMG you interrupted Dancing with the Stars to tell me its raining!!). For this reason I think a lot of station shy away from the wall to wall coverage you see here.

Its a little discerning considering that you won't find a larger metro in the US at a greater risk for tornadoes than DFW. A lot of people believe that DFW will never get hit by tornadoes because "they never hit cities, only small towns and trailer parks" (yes I've heard this many times).

Obviously, Oklahoma also sometimes gets injuries and fatalities from severe weather but I have to wonder if the possibility of that happening in places like the Dallas area isn't higher because of a lack of the comprehensive coverage that we get.

But the Dallas area makes for a much bigger, sprawled out populated area to hit.

But the Dallas area makes for a much bigger, sprawled out populated area to hit.

Which has nothing to do with what I said.

I thought Mike said Friday was Mike's D-Day. Is he moving the goalposts? What a narcissistic drama queen.

At least from my observations people who live in the OKC are generally far more educated and alert to the dangers of tornadoes than people are in the Dallas area..Given the exact same WX circumstances I feel very certain that a major tornado would kill far more people in the Dallas area than in the OKC area.
For that we have our local weather community to thank….

In spite of the bigger TV market Dallas TV doesn’t devote near as much time and money in covering tornadoes….

Maybe that's because OKC is in the literal center of the bullseye for tornados, historically speaking. If our weather people didn't make it a priority they would be idiots.

Watching the KXAS live stream with Rick Mitchell. Really miss him in this market. No offense to Damon Lane, but Rick was great IMHO. Measured, informative delivery and coverage. There's a reason he's gone on to bigger markets.

Damon Lane comes off as cocky. Rick was cool and personable -- a rare combination. Consummate professional. I think I actually prefer Rusty McRanie (sp?). It's a shame Damon Lane got the gig simply because of his frat-boy looks. Rusty has a better on-air persona during severe weather events.

Really quick, I setup this thread: http://www.okctalk.com/arts-entertainment/33784-okc-weather-coverage-wars-2013-a.html To talk about the local OCMs and other on camera personalities. So let's not get too far down the road in here arguing about them. :)

Looking ahead. Quieter day tomorrow and also Friday. Friday is pretty unstable, but very strong cap should keep things quiet - mostly.

Saturday May 18th

Saturday looks to be a day where we could see some higher end severe weather. Dryline will be out west in far Western OK. Some storms should fire along it by late afternoon. Conditions will be such that large hail and damaging wind will be main threat. LCLs will be quite high as the lower levels will be quite dry. If moisture return is greater than expected, we need to watch this day closely.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/072/SKT_NAM__KOUN.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130518-3gfs.png

Sunday May 19th

Sunday still looks significant with widespread severe weather probably. Dryline is still out west and will help kick storms off along it west of the I-35 corridor. Nothing much more to really ad. Things will look to be coming into place for a significant day.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/096/SKT_GFS__koun.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130519-1gfs.png

Monday May 20th

Much like Sunday, higher end severe weather seems probable. Dryline is further in so that will push the convection over central and eastern OK.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/120/SKT_GFS__koun.png

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/20130521.png

Really quick, I setup this thread: http://www.okctalk.com/arts-entertainment/33784-okc-weather-coverage-wars-2013-a.html To talk about the local OCMs and other on camera personalities. So let's not get too far down the road in here arguing about them. :)

Noted.

Here are the thoughts from NWS Norman and SPC...


SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMITTHUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE EC MODEL INDICATES A LEAD
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A STORM OR TWO MAY FORM IN FAR WESTERN OK. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CHANCES RATHER SLIM.

SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONG CAP MAY
AGAIN LIMIT STORM DEVELOPING SATURDAY BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAYBE NORTH TEXAS.

BETTER LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
MAY FAVOR MORE STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA.

MONDAY MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS IN
OKLAHOMA...AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS PART OF THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN BROAD/GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXISTS DAYS 4-5 /SUN. 5-19 AND
MON. 5-20/ AND POSSIBLY INTO DAY 6. HOWEVER...RATHER PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION OF SHORT-WAVE FEATURES CASTS
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DETAILS OF THE UPCOMING SCENARIO.

IN GENERAL...THE TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD IN A SOMEWHAT PIECEMEAL FASHION.
THE INITIAL/ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE FEATURE SHOULD AFFECT THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
TO OCCUR ALONG A ROUGHLY N-S SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REGION AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH 40 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLYS...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL COMBINE WITH THE VERY
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY TO ALLOW STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH LIKELY DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...A SECOND SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
SEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.
AGAIN...TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE DIFFERS AMONGST THE
VARIOUS MODELS...AND CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE
INFLUENCED THE SURFACE PATTERN SUBSTANTIALLY -- BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS YIELDING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
FORECAST. STILL...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND EMERGENCE OF
THIS SECOND/STRONGER SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SUGGESTS THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES AS AFTERNOON STORMS
ERUPT ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND INTO PARTS OF KS/OK/N
TX AND POSSIBLY NWRN AR.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO DAY 6 /TUESDAY/...WHICH
-- COMBINED WITH THE TWO PRIOR DAYS OF WHAT WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD CENTRAL U.S. CONVECTION/SEVERE WEATHER -- CASTS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST SUCH THAT NO AREAL DELINEATION OF
THREAT WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM BEYOND DAY 5. STILL...TUESDAY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REQUIRE RE-EXAMINATION IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS AMPLE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
EXIST.

So does this look like its shaping up to be a May 3, 1999 type event?

So does this look like its shaping up to be a May 3, 1999 type event?

That is pretty much impossible to call. That day started out as forecasted SLIGHT Risk. It wasn't until hours leading up to and during the event did it shape up to be such long-lived tornadoes. Kind of like last night in N TX.





Anyways, last night much of OKC had close to 7 tenths of an inch of rain. SC into SE OK got 2" + with storms redevloping over same areas close to the Red River right now.

So does this look like its shaping up to be a May 3, 1999 type event?

In what way? This isn't directed at you, but the chat room regulars know this, you can't always keep relating everything to May 3rd. In the grand scheme, May 3rd was high impact to mainly just Central OK and the Wichita area. For everyone else, it was nothing more than a localized high end weather event that meant nothing to people outside of that area. That day saw 66 tornadoes in OK and KS. Since then there have by 26 more significant outbreaks than that in talking about pure volume of confirmed tornadoes - 10 of those in the last 3 years. So when asked "is this like May 3rd" it is really a disservice to label it as such because that date only means something to people that were impacts or weather geeks. May 3rd is dwarfed significantly by more large scale events, especially the Super Outbreak of 2011 that had 358 tornadoes and 324 fatalities.

So bringing it back, to put it into context.

1) There is no way to say this upcoming event will surpass any total volume of reports in the various severe weather buckets (hail/tornado/wind) at this point in time.

2) The impact area overall with this could be pretty significant going from OK/TX north to ND/MN and east to IL/WI over 3 days - probably a larger area when we add in the prospects for activity continuing on Tuesday.

3) The May 3rd event's impacts on OKC still rank as the 3rd costliest in US history right now behind the Joplin and Tuscaloosa tornadoes. No way we can even determine that now until things have concluded.

Essentially my point is this. You can't relate one event to the next. May 3rd was traumatizing for many in Central OK, but there have been many well after that. Is this going to be a high end event? The way it looks yes. Going into more detail than that isn't possible at this point and is all just best guessing. Will there be tornadoes? Probably. As well as very large hail and destructive winds. Of course something could change it all turns into a gray showery grunge fest of a day.

That is a big problem with forecasting, the general population does not understand localization when it comes to weather.

Issue a tornado watch for C OK, and supercells go north and south of OKC - and OKC gets some nice sunset photos and maybe a gust of wind. The general consensus of the most populated area would claim that the forecasters "suck" and the weather was a non-event. Same thing with winter storms, snowfall amount gradients can go from dusting to 10+ inches in a matter of a handful of miles.

It isn't about forecasting exact areas of being hit with X type of storm. It is about making people in the general area AWARE that significant weather could occurr in or near their area. People need to let go of the ME ME ME concept and realize the randomness of weather and more specifically, tornadoes.




2011 super outbreak will forever be a haunting day for me. And I was here in OKC. Those days will forever be remembered by those affected people, but I bet if you ask most people here in OKC what happened on those late April days in 2011 - they will have no idea. Much like people there will not immediatly think of May 3, 1999 for OKC citizens.

That is a big problem with forecasting, the general population does not understand localization when it comes to weather.
It isn't about forecasting exact areas of being hit with X type of storm. It is about making people in the general area AWARE that significant weather could occurr in or near their area. People need to let go of the ME ME ME concept and realize the randomness of weather
and more specifically, tornadoes.


I remember once watching a leaf floating down a mountain stream. The water currents took it here and there and eventually into a calmer area next to the bank where I was standing. It moved slowly around in the calmer water, spun a few times in a small whirlpool then drifted back into the main flow and disappeared downstream. Since the atmosphere is essentially a very, very thin/non-dense body of water it occurred to me then that weather prediction might be a lot like predicting the exact path of that leaf. It's not exactly "random" but there are a nearly infinite number of variables that could effect the accuracy of the prediction.

Some good points are made here. If May 3, 1999 would have happened a little farther west, it likely would have gone down as a non-event for most people. On that same note, the 2011 outbreak could have been catastrophic for OKC had it occurred a little farther east. As good as our forecasting is, its still a wait and see game when it comes to exactly where the storms will hit.

Some good points are made here. If May 3, 1999 would have happened a little farther west, it likely would have gone down as a non-event for most people. On that same note, the 2011 outbreak could have been catastrophic for OKC had it occurred a little farther east. As good as our forecasting is, its still a wait and see game when it comes to exactly where the storms will hit.

Good point, reminiscent of the question, "If a tree falls in the forest and there's no-one there to hear it, does it make a sound?" We wouldn't remember May 3rd if it simply ran across open ground; unfortunately it didn't.

12Z NAM is in and now covers through Sunday evening. The GFS run is just getting underway so we should have those details here in a couple hours to compare. I'm holding off for the GFS due to one main issue, the 12Z NAM accelerates the dryline at warp speed on Sunday. Looking at its last 4 runs we the latest common time period is 06Z Sunday or 1 AM Sunday. The prior three runs (18Z, 00Z, and 06Z) all were in general agreement on having the 60 degree dewpoint line back to the OK/TX border out west. With the new 12Z run it has it much further east between US 183 and 281 near Weatherford. What this translates to is much less moisture between that area and where the actual dryline is at 1AM - which all runs agree is on the TX/OK border out west. With less moisture until Central OK that dryline has the ability to just haul it eastward as the air dries out. The problem we run into then is where it actually sets up for storm initiation.

The 12Z NAM actually holds of much precip north of I-40 in NW and NC OK, but some have isolated cells along I-44 to the south. The precip forecast itself is a little suspect since CIN is generally completely removed along the dryline by mid afternoon which would call for storms to form along it with relatively little resistance (at that point).

So as it stands, no really changes to the forecast right now. We'll see how it plays out on a couple more runs before moving things around.

I went down and caught pretty much all of the action in the vicinity of Mineral Wells - Millsap - Granbury - Cleburne, TX yesterday/last night. Here is some video I shot of the Millsap, TX tornado:

MillsapTX_tornado_051513 - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xdc11hB-mg)

Pictures:

Millsap, TX tornado:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/941708_10101424135008917_1628804384_n.jpg

https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/309984_10101424121341307_367267075_n.jpg

Granbury, TX tornado (you can just make out the wedge underneath the absolutely insane updraft):

https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/969781_10101424122493997_1555740663_n.jpg

Hail coming out of the Granbury, TX meso/RFD:

https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/268983_10101424122533917_1448913567_n.jpg

Cleburne, TX wedge (sorry about the low contrast but it was 100% dark by this time)

https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/375117_10101424134824287_1182880833_n.jpg

Some good points are made here. If May 3, 1999 would have happened a little farther west, it likely would have gone down as a non-event for most people. On that same note, the 2011 outbreak could have been catastrophic for OKC had it occurred a little farther east. As good as our forecasting is, its still a wait and see game when it comes to exactly where the storms will hit.

Its a case of geographic bad luck. If Moore and Midwest City wasn't in the way of an F5 people wouldn't remember it besides storm chasers and forecasters who seem to remember every detail the past 15 years. lol

Great pics and video Lance. Glad you made it back in one piece. Makes me miss being out there in a chaos again - slightly. ;)

From NWS Fort Worth - House, well where it once was, in Granbury, TX...

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/557941_525440847492533_2025012254_n.jpg

I know the rush to judgement of "only slab left = EF5" but that's not always the case. If the construction materials of the home weren't significant, that has to be taken into account. NWS is saying early ruling on this tornado is EF4, which looks about right. Especially with these photos:

http://www.dallasnews.com/incoming/20130516-air3.jpg.ece/BINARY/w700x467/air3.jpg

http://www.dallasnews.com/incoming/20130516-air2.jpg.ece/BINARY/w700x467/air2.JPG

Nice, wood floors throughout entire house! But no really, those houses don't look to be built too structurally sound. EF 4 seems about right.

Great job s00nr1. But where was the invite!? lol


Looks like you had a great choice on that storm, was there much chaser convergance?

WOW!!! Great photos!!!

The one showing the stripped slab reminds me of an "In Your Corner" type broadcast following a tornado that hit part of Edmond back in the 1980s. The homeowner was all upset because the framers of his house didn't put the nuts and washers on the anchor bolts and that was the reason his house was swept from the slab. Somehow he was ignoring the fact that the bottom plates were all still there, secured apparently by the Ramset Pins or concrete nails that were used to shoot them down as the house was being constructed. No conventionally framed house can be expected to withstand a direct hit from a powerful tornado. Measures can be taken to reinforce every framing joint, but nothing can be done to make a wood-framed structure tornado proof.

ps: i don't see any of the sole plates still attached to the slab so the framing must have been substandard. but who were those wood floor guys??? =)

Speaking of "chaser convergance" I nearly became an innocent storm statistic/victim at the intersection of Post and Spencer-Jones Rd. due to a convoy of chasers going after the one that went through Frontier City at speeds far exceeding the posted limit. =)

May 19th Forecast Discussion is up: Severe Weather Outlook ? Sunday May 19th | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=254)

Still working on the other days.

----

Sunday May 19th continues to look like a day that has the potential for significant severe weather across Oklahoma (also elsewhere, but these outlooks are focused on OK only). There is some disagreement with the NAM and GFS on moisture content in Western Oklahoma early in the day which can play into how fast the dryline moves through the day. The NAM is also much faster with the cold front from the north, moving it into NW OK by late afternoon. GFS keeps the front back into KS and the panhandles. For the sake of this outlook, both solutions are going to be presented with the understanding of a blend for the final outlook.

NAM Discussion

This model is the most aggressive in terms of forward speed of the dryline and front on Sunday. This can have serious impacts on where convection initiation takes place and which areas are most likely to be impacted. It also throws an interesting twist into just the type of storms we may see. The dryline would typically provide us with the more classic supercell storms whereas the front could provide more linear activity. At the intersection point it is always possible to get added spin to the atmosphere in a localized area, so that needs to be watched to. Overall feel the NAM is a bit fast with the boundaries. The NAM *does* pull the dryline back in the evening, as is common this time of year, and doesn’t push the front much further south. This means that with the NAM solution, most areas east of US 81 will stay in the higher risk area and though west of it will see their chances fade as the dryline passes. Of course, once it moves back to the west if any overnight redevelopment occurs they could be subject to severe weather again.


http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/19-nam.png

Forecast sounding is a bit mixed when it comes to tornado potential. There is a pretty large gap of surface moisture and air temp in Central OK. This more or less is a result of having a faster dryline speed and moving the better moisture to the east. Moving the sounding over by Shawnee and Seminole the moisture improves a good deal. Directional shear will be present and speed share is there as well.


http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/sndgs/NAM_12_084_35.22;-96.97.gif

GFS Discussion

GFS has been old reliable with this setup. It hasn’t really changed all that much and continues to indicated a very good setup for severe weather. It has the dryline out west near Weatherford (and north/south of there) by early evening before it begins to retreat. Cold front is back further to the NW. It keeps most areas, at this time, along and west of US 81 in the 60°F + dew points. Exceptional instability will exist ahead of the dryline with little capping that will setup for a classic dryline/supercell scenario. It is hard to tack down this early the most favorable location for specific severe weather types, so at this point it is best to just assumed the entire area is at risk for all three.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/19-gfs.png

Forecast sounding remains impressive. Hodograph has a near perfect arch to the right showing a favorable environment for rotating/right turning supercells. Directional shear is especially good with decent SE winds at the surface and WSW winds above 700 mb. Indices on the sounding are near the top of the line for severe storms. LI -8, CAPE 4300 j/kg, SWEAT 592, TT 57, EHI 9.6, SRH 0-3km 369, and relatively low CIN. All very well in line for severe weather.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/084/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png

Bottom Line

So with all this in mind, what is the main take away? Severe weather seems likely at this point on Sunday. That includes the risks for very large hail, destructive winds, and several tornadoes. It is still too early to pin point exactly who is most at risk and which feature is going to be most prominent. As of right now would essentially call it a severe risk from US 183 and to the east through the state. Won’t say “slight, moderate, or high” since those terms are more focused on storm coverage than intensity of the activity that develops. If/when storms develop they will more than likely be severe and that should be enough to warrant attention.

Nice, wood floors throughout entire house! But no really, those houses don't look to be built too structurally sound. EF 4 seems about right.

Great job s00nr1. But where was the invite!? lol


Looks like you had a great choice on that storm, was there much chaser convergance?

There's a dead witch somewhere in OZ.

So if we see tornadoes, does this look favorable for F4/F5 storms?

So if we see tornadoes, does this look favorable for F4/F5 storms?

Too much goes into that, not even going to worry about it until we get closer.

Those are great photos.
M. Armstrong just showed the slab photo on his noon KWVT WX cast.

He showed a moderate risk for large areas of Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday.

[QUOTE=venture79;645384]From NWS Fort Worth - House, well where it once was, in Granbury, TX...

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/557941_525440847492533_2025012254_n.jpg

I know the rush to judgement of "only slab left = EF5" but that's not always the case. If the construction materials of the home weren't significant, that has to be taken into account.


I don't see any anchor bolts on this slab to tie down the exterior walls.

Saturday's Outlook: Storm Outlook ? Saturday May 18th | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=257)

Storm chances for Saturday May 18th are pretty conditional. Instability will be quite high for much of Central and Eastern Oklahoma, but convergence will be pretty low. Dryline will remain out west where the best convergence will exist, especially over NW OK. However, the cap will be fairly strong and a decent amount of CIN will exist for much of the day. Should anything happen to develop, it will likely go severe. Chance of all modes of severe weather will be possible, but coverage will be pretty limited.
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/18-gfs.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/060/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png
http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/18-nam.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/NAM-test/060/SKT_NAM__koun.png

kbsooner;645425I know the rush to judgement of "only slab left = EF5" but that's not always the case. If the construction materials of the home weren't significant, that has to be taken into account.
I don't see any anchor bolts on this slab to tie down the exterior walls.

Ref. Post #265.
Of course, F6 tornadoes have been known to suck the bolts right out of the stemwall/slab edge (and then patch the concrete) so who knows . . .

Another round of severe weather is possible on Monday. The key thing with each of these events to remember is that prior day’s activity will directly impact the following day. Monday right now is looking like the main risk area will be from Central to Eastern OK. The dryline will push east some with the cold front moving down from Kansas. Storm development will happen along the boundaries by late afternoon. Storm movement looks like it will be ENE at 25 to 30 mph.

Severe indices are all favorable for severe weather. Forecast sounding wind profile shows pretty good directional and speed shear. Hodograph is also favorable for right turning supercells.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/screencap/outlooks/may13/20-gfs.png
http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/GFS-test/108/SKT_GFS__KOUN.png

Ref. Post #265.
Of course, F6 tornadoes have been known to suck the bolts right out of the stemwall/slab edge (and then patch the concrete) so who knows . . .

Habitat for Humanity constructed something like 60 of the destroyed Granbury area homes.
I wonder about the quality of construction with those......So who knows

Brief Look at the rest of next week is posted here: Early Look: Storm Risk Tues-Fri | Weather Spotlight (http://www.weatherspotlight.com/?p=263)

Also, we've hit on this before here many times...but last night is sending a clear reminder that some people don't get it...

http://images.scribblelive.com/2013/5/16/dbe435de-63d2-4e55-8828-6da989c0e4e2_500.jpg

Habitat for Humanity constructed something like 60 of the destroyed Granbury area homes.
I wonder about the quality of construction with those......So who knows

As an experienced "journeyman" framer, I helped construct several Habitat for Humanity houses in my spare time.
From what I observed they are more tornado resistant, construction quality-wise, than many of those McMansions in certain OKC Sprawldivisions.

(you wouldn't believe some of the shoddy flaws behind the custom wall treatments and textures)

So it looks like a very active pattern through the end of next week.

Hopefully the metro can avoid a serious tornado strike and at the same time pick up some good rain out of this.

So it looks like a very active pattern through the end of next week.

Hopefully the metro can avoid a serious tornado strike and at the same time pick up some good rain out of this.

That's the hope. We are only running 2 inches above normal for the year and it takes July behaving like July to wipe that out.

They've said on the news that Monday is our best chance for storms, if they're severe but how severe will they be

They've said on the news that Monday is our best chance for storms, if they're severe but how severe will they be

An F12 super-apocalypse-nado and basketball sized hail. That is how severe!

They've said on the news that Monday is our best chance for storms, if they're severe but how severe will they be

Just follow the discussions in this thread and you'll have your answer. :)

Don't pay attention to percentages, that is mostly going to be about storm coverage not chances for storms to occur.

As an experienced "journeyman" framer, I helped construct several Habitat for Humanity houses in my spare time.
From what I observed they are more tornado resistant, construction quality-wise, than many of those McMansions in certain OKC Sprawldivisions.

(you wouldn't believe some of the shoddy flaws behind the custom wall treatments and textures)


I know what you mean. Shoddy craftsmenship drives me nuts.

If I ever hit the lottery I’m going to build a very energy efficient home out of materials that will not burn, termites wouldn’t bother,
be somewhat earth quake resistant and would survive with only superficial damage from a strong tornado.
It would probably help though if I played the lottery…. maybe

(you wouldn't believe some of the shoddy flaws behind the custom wall treatments and textures)


Oh yes I would. Saw some of the cheapest building tricks by supposedly good builders in some very expensive homes. It was at that point I realized I'd watch every phase of my house as it was built....And I did!

18Z Updates are done. NAM has started to back fill the moisture into western OK some on Sunday, but still takes the dryline almost all the way to I-35 before pulling it back west. GFS is steady as she goes. Here are the GFS supercell composite maps for Sat-Mon.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_054.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_078.gif

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/SGP/gfsSGP_con_scp_102.gif

Meanwhile, for a view of how the weather is doing in north central Oklahoma, or at least during the daytime, a new webcam has turned up showing the northern sky from OSU:

http://wwc.instacam.com/instacamimg/STLLW/STLLW_l.jpg?rnd=15-051320130102readImage.asp?dummy=1368748669271

http://wwc.instacam.com/instacamimg/STLLW/STLLW_l.jpg?rnd=15-051320130102readImage.asp?dummy=1368748669271

Mike Morgan says OKC is the direct bullseye for an intense tornado outbreak on Sunday into Monday.

Mike Morgan says OKC is the direct bullseye for an intense tornado outbreak on Sunday into Monday.

Of course he is...Bedazzled Tie Watch has been issued. :doh:

Anywho. 00Z models are in mostly. No major changes. Both NAM and GFS push the dryline to about US 81 by early evening before retreating west on Sunday.

Nothing else really to add that I have mentioned before. I would not be shocked to see an SPC Day 3 Moderate Risk issued tonight. Day 2 we'll likely see a slight risk hatched area added over probably the western half of the state. The current Day 5 30% risk area will translate to roughly the same area on the new Day 4, and we'll see a new Day 5 30% risk area for at least the SE 1/3rd of the state - if not back to I-44.

It's going to be a long weekend/week ahead. Enjoy tomorrow.

Of course he is...Bedazzled Tie Watch has been issued. :doh:

Anywho. 00Z models are in mostly. No major changes. Both NAM and GFS push the dryline to about US 81 by early evening before retreating west on Sunday.

Nothing else really to add that I have mentioned before. I would not be shocked to see an SPC Day 3 Moderate Risk issued tonight. Day 2 we'll likely see a slight risk hatched area added over probably the western half of the state. The current Day 5 30% risk area will translate to roughly the same area on the new Day 4, and we'll see a new Day 5 30% risk area for at least the SE 1/3rd of the state - if not back to I-44.

It's going to be a long weekend/week ahead. Enjoy tomorrow.

I watched Mike's forecast and never heard him say anything about a bull's eye. He showed a map with the probability areas and mentioned what area the OKC metro was in. There was no hype, just normal coverage.

I watched Mike's forecast and never heard him say anything about a bull's eye. He showed a map with the probability areas and mentioned what area the OKC metro was in. There was no hype, just normal coverage.

Good to hear. Maybe we can get away from attempting relay what the local OCMs are saying and just stick to contributing to the conversation or at the most, post a link to their forecast to view. They are more than welcome to come on the threat and contribute, and one has several times already.

Just what I always wanted for a yard ornament.

My neighbors would love me even more.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiAU9aeo1jc

SPC kept the Day 2 at a 5% risk level which is below slight risk criteria.

...SRN PLAINS...
A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
SRN KS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO NW TX. EAST OF THE
DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. IN
SPITE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION AND 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING +12 C. THIS COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF A STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP
FROM SRN KS SWD INTO NW TX...THEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A
SEVERE THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS.

I watched Mike's forecast and never heard him say anything about a bull's eye. He showed a map with the probability areas and mentioned what area the OKC metro was in. There was no hype, just normal coverage.

He said it... I was thinking the same as you when I saw bchris02's comment. Rewound the DVR to watch it again before I could leave the exact same comment as yours here and was glad I did when I heard those words come from his mouth.

The day 3 outlook has the OKC metro area in the southern edge of the higher probability(30%). This will shift eastward, westward, southward, northward before Sunday comes. lol

GFS doesn't really fire anything on Sunday in W OK.

NAM gives us a few supercells (most likely short lived pending on sun down) with a classic setup.


Monday looks like the money-day for both GFS and NAM in C OK.



The atmospheric setup saturday into sunday is pretty much going to determine what goes down (if anything) Sunday afternoon. Then of course Monday pends heavily on what happened Sunday eve. I think right now Sunday may be a no-show in OK. If that occurs, Monday's seriousness may be warranted highly.

The day 3 outlook has the OKC metro area in the southern edge of the higher probability(30%). This will shift eastward, westward, southward, northward before Sunday comes. lol

Naturally. :) Day 3 and beyond pretty much are those - "yes something will happen, in this general area".


GFS doesn't really fire anything on Sunday in W OK.

NAM gives us a few supercells (most likely short lived pending on sun down) with a classic setup.

Monday looks like the money-day for both GFS and NAM in C OK.

The atmospheric setup saturday into sunday is pretty much going to determine what goes down (if anything) Sunday afternoon. Then of course Monday pends heavily on what happened Sunday eve. I think right now Sunday may be a no-show in OK. If that occurs, Monday's seriousness may be warranted highly.

GFS has precip fire on Sunday closer to Central OK around 7PM Sunday in both the 00Z and 06Z runs, where were you seeing it wasn't? Granted nothing out west on Sunday since the dryline, as it is projecting, would be closer to us.

The cap is going to be the biggest issue with this, IMO, and how quickly CIN builds back after sundown. We'll see what the 12Z models as they are running now.

Here is the SPC Day 3 Outlook...they are at a 30% hatched slight risk right now, highest they can go without being at a moderate risk.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF GREAT
PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
SUNDAY AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SEWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS SSWWD INTO
ECNTRL OK. IN SPITE OF THE INSTABILITY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD HOLD BACK CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT BY 00Z/MON
WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING AND MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE EXISTS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON FROM KANSAS CITY SSWWD TO TULSA AND
OKLAHOMA CITY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE. A MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HELPING TO INCREASE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL INCLUDING HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD CREATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR
ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. A
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP AND COULD BECOME ENHANCED IF A
LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES.

GFS has precip fire on Sunday closer to Central OK around 7PM Sunday in both the 00Z and 06Z runs, where were you seeing it wasn't? Granted nothing out west on Sunday since the dryline, as it is projecting, would be closer to us.

The cap is going to be the biggest issue with this, IMO, and how quickly CIN builds back after sundown. We'll see what the 12Z models as they are running now.


In regards to storms firing W of OKC is what I meant. Nobody lives in Eastern OK. C'mon! :D

I really like the setup on Monday. I wish it was memorial day so I could chase...

Watching the KXAS live stream with Rick Mitchell. Really miss him in this market. No offense to Damon Lane, but Rick was great IMHO. Measured, informative delivery and coverage. There's a reason he's gone on to bigger markets.

I was down in Ft Worth Wed. night and was watching Rick. Once again he did a good job.

In regards to storms firing W of OKC is what I meant. Nobody lives in Eastern OK. C'mon! :D

I really like the setup on Monday. I wish it was memorial day so I could chase...

LOL Gotchya.

SPC's SREF product for tomorrow evening...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013051709/SREF_precip_MAX_3hr_f042.gif