For our southern counties...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0201_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 201
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1025 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ABILENE TEXAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
TURNING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WW AREA. THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SITUATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER MAY
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS
NORTHERN TEXAS. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.

I see rotation in the top storm near Mustang, is that correct? It looks like the top rotation almost "merged" with the bottom one.

There was some weak rotation in the storm yes...but it was absorbed into the more dominate only otherwise we could have seen more up there.

http://i83.photobucket.com/albums/j286/UnFrSaKn/581813_10151484723788731_641145578_n.jpg

Insight Visual Media | Oklahoma based graphic design, web development, photography and video production company (http://www.goivm.com/)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0202_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 202
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1045 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 201...

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN FLANK OF AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
MORNING... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN STORMS APPROACHING THE OKLAHOMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY BECOME THE PREDOMINANT SEVERE THREAT IN A SWATH CLOSER TO
THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27035.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (10%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

Warning now includes far west metro area.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN WA****A COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT


* AT 1056 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALFALFA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Now looks like the most severe storm will travel north of the recovery area.

Not sure where to put this, so I'll put it in a few places: Kevin Durant just donated a million dollars for tornado relief.

Not sure where to put this, so I'll put it in a few places: Kevin Durant just donated a million dollars for tornado relief.

Let me get a new thread going so we don't let the good news get buried under the general weather information for the new activity popping up.

http://www.okctalk.com/current-events-open-topic/33988-may-20th-tornado-recovery-news-information.html#post646718

Not sure where to put this, so I'll put it in a few places: Kevin Durant just donated a million dollars for tornado relief.

I know he makes a lot of money, but wow. That's what CHK, an $14B company donated.

Warning on the storm to the west...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT


* AT 1124 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF COGAR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN BINGER AND EAKLY.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

The storm headed to the northern sides of metro will have some strong wind, it is kind of bowing out ahead of the complex.


Storms south of it intensifying and filling in - heading towards Moore.

Hanging in there Venture?

Busy busy week. Looks like a couple more days later this week and then things change around a bit. I'll do another long range forecast later.

Anon has the Northern storm covered pretty good. Hail is done, so yeah wind threat there. A couple new little storms have popped up ahead of the line that will be heading into Moore and Norman.

The only other severe storm is in SW OK to the NW of Waurika. Moving NE and could effect Duncan, Comanche, and eventually Pauls Valley.

Oklahoma and Logan counties now...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A


* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT


* AT 1155 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF YUKON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.


HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...

Things will be on the downward trend for the rest of the day now. Just some moderate rain and thunder for the next couple of hours. Some showers/storms may slide into SW OK later, but nothing major.

NWS Norman PNS...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 5/20/2013 NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO EVENT -
UPDATE 2...

.OVERVIEW...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DISPATCHED FOUR DAMAGE SURVEY TEAMS TO
THE PATH OF THE NEWCASTLE/MOORE OK TORNADO. NEW STATEMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THESE TEAMS REPORT FINDINGS. THIS
INFORMATION REMAINS PRELIMINARY AND THE INFORMATION HERE COULD
CHANGE.

.NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO

RATING: EF4
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 190 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 17 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: N/A
FATALITIES: N/A
INJURIES: N/A

START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 2:45 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 4.4 W NEWCASTLE /GRADY COUNTY /OK
START LAT/LON: 35.2580 / -97.6775

END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 3:35 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 4.8 E OF MOORE OK /CLEVELAND COUNTY /OK
END LAT/LON: 35.3409 / -97.4007

SURVEY SUMMARY: FOUR SURVEY TEAMS CONTINUE TO SURVEY THIS LONG TRACK
TORNADO. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS FOUND AROUND 4.4 MILES WEST OF NEWCASTLE
...SOUTH OF TECUMSEH ROAD ALSO KNOWN AS NW 16TH STREET AND EAST LAKE
ROAD. THE TORNADO TRACKED NE TO THE INTERSTATE 44 BRIDGE OVER THE
CANADIAN RIVER AND THEN TOOK A MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH MOORE.
TORNADO DAMAGE ABRUPTLY ENDS 0.3 MILES EAST OF AIR DEPOT ROAD AND N
OF SE 134TH ST.

INITIALLY PRODUCING EF0 AND EF1 DAMAGE THE STORM INTENSIFIED VERY
RAPIDLY IN 4 MILES PRODUCING EF4 DAMAGE BEFORE REACHING INTERSTATE
44. ONGOING SURVEYS THROUGH MOORE HAVE ALREADY DOCUMENTED NUMEROUS
INDICATIONS OF EF4 DAMAGE WITH ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS OF 190 MPH.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SUCH AS MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WILL BE UPDATED
AS THE TEAMS COMPLETE THEIR SURVEYS.

If I recall, after May 3, 1999 the rest of the season for Central Oklahoma was relatively quiet. Do you think we'll be that fortunate this year?

If I recall, after May 3, 1999 the rest of the season for Central Oklahoma was relatively quiet. Do you think we'll be that fortunate this year?

I'll post the stats, but I wanted to get a little frustration off my chest - so this isn't at your Bchris...I"ll get to your question in a moment.

First one. We need to get off of this May 3rd comparision. It is really not a great way to compare since every event is different, but also because Moore proper has been hit by two other significant tornadoes since then that everyone seems to be forgetting. The references are getting tired and overused and we can't directly relate events. Yes it was significant, but so were the other tornadoes and shouldn't be ignored.

So for the sake of your question now, I'll compare the seasons of significant tornadoes.

After the May 3rd-4th 1999 Tornado Outbreak, we had 47 more tornadoes in Oklahoma. Four of those were strong, including an F2 in December in Guthrie.

After the May 10th 2010 Outbreak which produced two EF4 tornadoes that struck Northern and Central Cleveland County, killing 3 and injuring 81, we had 44 more tornadoes in Oklahoma - including another cluster/outbreak on the 13th out east. Six of those were strong (EF2+) including an EF3 on December 31st.

Finally after the May 24th 2011 Outbreak which produced the EF4 that followed this similar path as the others, also produced the EF5 in the NW Metro Area and another EF4 in the Southwest Metro area. We saw 22 more tornadoes in OKlahoma, including two strong tornadoes. This includes an EF4 in Southwest Oklahoma on November 7th.

Now to play with the stats some more. Prior to these events. In 1999 we had 27 tornadoes prior to May 3rd, in 2010 we had 3 tornadoes prior to May 10th, and 2011 we had 75 tornadoes prior to May 24th.

In 2013 we so far have had 16 tornados in the numbers from January through April. Prior to this ongoing outbreak, we've had 2 tornadoes in May in Oklahoma. So far for May prior to yesterday we were around 10 tornado reports, assessments are still on going. One of those was the EF4 in Shawnee.

So pretty much what you can say is that numbers don't indicate anything. However, one thing of note is that the May 19-20th tornado outbreak for Oklahoma does not have the volume of tornadoes we've seen in the other events except the 24th. Judging by initial numbers we'll probably end up with less than 15 individual tornadoes. May 3rd had 72, May 10th had 56, and May 24th had 21.

So in the grand scheme of things and this is just from the numbers point of view.

Will the season be relatively quiet? Is another 40 tornadoes really quiet if we compare to May 3rd that is. The bottom line is we don't know. We had a very AVERAGE start to the season. I know the media heads are going on and on about how quiet it's been and this and that. When we look at the averages since 1950, we are almost EXACTLY where we expect to be. Average for January is 0.3 we had 2. February is 0.8, we had zero...so January averages that out. March we average 4 and only had 2. April we had 12 and average 11.7. For May we average 21.4 and we are looking at so far around 17ish. So for all sake of discussion - 2013 has been about as average of a year as you ask for. That tends to be ignored in light of these extreme events, but rightfully so.

We have the discussion threads for those events, so we'll keep this type of discussion here which is going to be more focused on meteorological aspect of things as usual.

Your frustrations are typical of a scientist. You don't forget any event. People are making the comparisons because they don't want to remember the other tornadoes. They just didn't leave the same emotional imprint on them and their lives. The human and property toll was much larger on May 3rd...regardless of how many or how powerful any subsequent tornadoes were. Don't get too worked up about that stuff. I hear you though. :)

Yeah I know. I feel better after I typed that. LOL Or perhaps it is the carpal tunnel annoying my wrists from typing so much. LOL

I get all the pain in my forearm.
Keep up the good work man. I don't think you realize how much respect people have for you in return for all you continue to do to keep us informed.

TMI, Sid! :tongue:



Good post venture. I am alright with any comparisons (just plug my ears and lalalalalalala) as long as it makes people more prepared for the next. I guarantee that both of the schools that were damaged, will be rebuilt with a storm room. It may be a harsh reality, but sometimes learned lessons are done the hard way. Unfortunately Moore has been taught about tornadoes far too often. I am willing to bet they will have even more requests for storm rooms/shelters after this one.

Every once and a while comes along a storm that doesn't care if you're in a closet or a bathtub like you're supposed to be in - sometimes you just have to get out of the way.



Wait, which thread am I in?!

Here is the rain graph thus far, it is still raining heavily in SE OK:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png


Close to 3 inches in south and east OKC. 1 inch or less the further northwest in OKC.

Extended Storm Outlook

Weds May 22 - Could see some isolated storms fire in Central OK tomorrow. This is a very low chance and only NAM is suggesting this.

Thurs May 23 - Increasing instability along and south of I-40. Could see some storms fire up in the south, but may also have a complex of storms on going early on moving South over Central and Eastern OK that would keep severe threat down for all but far SW OK - which is what SPC is thinking now.

Fri May 24 - Slight chance of storms along Red River area.

Sat May 25 - Chance of storms, some severe most areas of OK.

Sun May 26 - Mostly dry, looks like storms will be around OK but not in the state.

Mon May 27 - Chance of storms, some severe, in W OK.

Tues May 28th - Dry

Weds May 29th - Chance of storms far West.

After that cap looks to build in more and keeps precip chance down. June 1st and June 2nd will have high instability, but that's a ways out there.

Rating is now an EF5

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 5/20/2013 NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO EVENT -
UPDATE 3...

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY HAS NOW RATED THE NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO AS EF5...

.OVERVIEW...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DISPATCHED FOUR DAMAGE SURVEY TEAMS TO
THE PATH OF THE NEWCASTLE/MOORE OK TORNADO. NEW STATEMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THESE TEAMS REPORT FINDINGS. THIS
INFORMATION REMAINS PRELIMINARY AND THE INFORMATION HERE COULD
CHANGE.

.NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO

RATING: EF5
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 200-210 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 17 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1.3 MILES
FATALITIES: N/A
INJURIES: N/A

START DATE: MAY 20 2013
START TIME: 2:45 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 4.4 W NEWCASTLE /GRADY COUNTY /OK
START LAT/LON: 35.2580 / -97.6775

END DATE: MAY 20 2013
END TIME: 3:35 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 4.8 E OF MOORE OK /CLEVELAND COUNTY /OK
END LAT/LON: 35.3409 / -97.4007

SURVEY SUMMARY: EXPERTS SURVEYING IN MOORE HAVE DETERMINED DAMAGE IS
EF5 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OVER 200 MPH. FOUR SURVEY TEAMS CONTINUE TO
INSPECT DAMAGE FROM THIS LONG TRACK TORNADO. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS
FOUND AROUND 4.4 MILES WEST OF NEWCASTLE...SOUTH OF TECUMSEH ROAD
ALSO KNOWN AS NW 16TH STREET AND EAST LAKE ROAD. THE TORNADO TRACKED
NE TO THE INTERSTATE 44 BRIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN RIVER AND THEN TOOK
A MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH MOORE. TORNADO DAMAGE ABRUPTLY ENDS
0.3 MILES EAST OF AIR DEPOT ROAD AND N OF SE 134TH ST.

INITIALLY PRODUCING EF0 AND EF1 DAMAGE THE STORM INTENSIFIED VERY
RAPIDLY IN 4 MILES OR AROUND 10 MINUTES PRODUCING EF4 DAMAGE BEFORE
REACHING INTERSTATE 44. NUMEROUS INDICATIONS OF EF4 DAMAGE WITH SOME
AREAS NOW DETERMINED AT EF5 DAMAGE...THE HIGHEST CATEGORY ON THE EF
SCALE...WITH OVER 200 MPH WINDS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SUCH AS MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH WILL BE UPDATED
AS THE TEAMS COMPLETE THEIR SURVEYS.

Ch. 9 is now saying the NWS has just upgraded the Moore tornado to an EF5

Ch. 9 is now saying the NWS has just upgraded the Moore tornado to an EF5

Refresh your page. :-P Probably should also delete the wall of text in the quote so it doesn't scroll everyone's screen away. :)

Refresh your page. :-P Probably should also delete the wall of text in the quote so it doesn't scroll everyone's screen away. :)

I didn't see your post in time;)

What does the tornado threat look like for the system moving in late this week into the weekend?

https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash3/931226_570782836275981_1420290905_n.jpg

What does the tornado threat look like for the system moving in late this week into the weekend?

I'll take a look after the evening model runs.

No family on any hurt or gone lists. By default I'm thinking Tristans is ok. His mom is my ex dil and I don't get to see him much at all.

I wanted to take a post and personally thank Venture for his posts on OKCtalk and chat on weatherspotlight and our meteorologists/chasers in general. I was following along all weekend with the developing weather situation and the information put out there by these people is so valuable. I live almost directly behind Southmoore, so I had alerted my wife to the situation early on as you all had identified this storm as very worrisome. At 2pm, she pulled our son out of Oakridge elementary and took him home. Then at 2:15, I headed home from downtown to be with them. Got home probably at 2:40ish, right when the funnel started forming over Newcastle. We usually go to my parents house to use their shelter, but that would have been driving towards the storm, so I quickly decided to drive us to Norman and out of the path. I think our power went out at 2:48, so it wasn't much time to spare from when we left.

Everything turned out fine for us, just debris everywhere. But I just think about what could have been, since it passed barely a 1/2 mile from us. If I left any later, I could have been stuck on 35. That could have been my son's school, and as you know they locked down Moore schools. My wife and I cringe at the thought of being turned away from trying to get your kid out when an EF5 is bearing down, only to be refused and turned away. In this case we weren't in the line of destruction, but I was able to make informed decisions that could have been life saving in our case based on the info you are putting out there. Literally every minute is so critical in these situations, and I wanted to thank all those that provide this service and give people the knowledge needed to save lives.

Thanks for the feedback Kb. I am definitely sur Anon, Lance, and all the other contributors to these threads appreciate hearing this type of feedback. Social media is such a big portion of our lives now, it has become one of the primary ways to inform about the weather.

If there are any suggestions, features, and so on you would like to see added just let me know. I'm trying to work on a software package that would help understand what is going on without needing a lot of technical training on how to decode everything.

Wonder if some kind of pop-up link to some met definitions/abbreviations/acronyms would be helpful, Venture? Nothing super technical, just a simple explanation (to the extent possible, realize not all words/terms are so "reducible" LOL). So many of the terms are really very simple concepts that sound complicated, eg "mesocyclone" just means "mid-level rotation." Most will probably glaze over at the former, but not so much the latter.

Now I'm not sure if you can do too much those skew charts :)

Slight risk tomorrow with a hatched area over SW OK. Main threat very large hail could also see some damaging winds and a tornado or two.

...NWRN TX/WRN OK...
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER
PARTS OF OK TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS NWRN TX. ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY DELAY
STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN AN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT ATTENDING THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT OVERLAID BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE REACHING 3000-3500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODEST WINDS ALOFT /25 KT AT 500 MB/...STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH
THE LATTER THREAT INCREASING IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO A SMALL
MCS AND MOVE EWD/SEWD DURING THE EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
INITIAL PHASE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER 03-06Z.

CH-9 mentioned on its noon WX that we could have significant weather by the middle of next week.

CH-9 mentioned on its noon WX that we could have significant weather by the middle of next week.

Not good. Are they expecting more F4/F5 tornadoes at this point?

Not good. Are they expecting more F4/F5 tornadoes at this point?

Only about 1% of all tornadoes are classified as a true EF5. There are so many variables that go into projecting the storms and tornadoes - especially a week out - that making such a granular prediction is just frought with peril. Even the day-to-day atmospheric variability can throw significant monkey wrenches into a given day's forecast.

Best thing anyone can do is stay aware, informed, and keep on keepin' on.

Marginal severe storms tonight. HRRR shows them forming in the Metro area around 2AM. Hail to golf balls and some strong winds are the main threats.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013052223/t5/cref_t5sfc_f08.png

Yup. Northwest moving to southeast.

Also tomorrow evening watch for a supercell or three in SW OK.

Latest HRRR delaying storm development a bit tonight. Latest couple of runs show initiation closer to day break moving into Central OK around rush hour.

Latest run down on May 19-20th tornadoes...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

...LATEST ON TORNADO INFORMATION FOR MAY 19 AND MAY 20...

A NUMBER OF TORNADOES AFFECTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON MAY 19 AND 20. INFORMATION ON MOST OF THESE TORNADOES IS
STILL VERY PRELIMINARY.

...MAY 19 EDMOND TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 4:22-4:30 PM CDT
LOCATION: NEAR 33RD STREET AND SOUTH BOULEVARD STREET
IN EDMOND TO NEAR HIGHWAY 66 AND POST ROAD

...MAY 19 ARCADIA TORNADO /OKLAHOMA COUNTY/...
RATING: EF0
PATH LENGTH: SHORT
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NARROW
TIME: 4:33 PM CDT
LOCATION: APPROX. 1 SW ARCADIA

...MAY 19 LUTHER-CARNEY TORNADO
/OKLAHOMA.. LOGAN AND LINCOLN COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF3
PATH LENGTH: 20 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 4:41 PM - 5:24 PM CDT
LOCATION: 3 NORTHWEST OF LUTHER TO CARNEY TO
2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRYON

...MAY 19 LAKE THUNDERBIRD-SHAWNEE TORNADO
/CLEVELAND AND POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF4
PATH LENGTH: 20 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 6:00 PM - 6:50 PM CDT
LOCATION: LAKE THUNDERBIRD /8 MILES EAST OF DOWNTOWN
NORMAN TO 6.5 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MCLOUD

...MAY 19 WEST OF PRAGUE TORNADO
/POTTAWATOMIE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF2
PATH LENGTH: 7 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 400 YARDS
TIME: 6:59 PM - 7:12 PM CDT
LOCATION: 6 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PRAGUE TO
3 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PRAGUE

...MAY 19 NORTHEAST OF PRAGUE TORNADO
/LINCOLN AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES/...
RATING: EF1
PATH LENGTH: 10 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 700 YARDS
TIME: 7:17 PM - 7:33 PM CDT
LOCATION: 3.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRAGUE TO
5.5 MILES WEST OF WELTY

...MAY 20 NEWCASTLE/MOORE TORNADO
/GRADY..MCCLAIN AND CLEVELAND COUNTIES/...

RATING: EF5
PATH LENGTH: 17 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 1.3 MILES
TIME: 2:45 PM - 3:35 PM CDT
LOCATION: 4.4 MILES WEST NEWCASTLE TO 4.8 MILES EAST
OF MOORE

...MAY 20 STEPHENS COUNTY TORNADO...

RATING: TO BE DETERMINED
PATH LENGTH: APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: TO BE DETERMINED
TIME: 7:58 PM - 8:20 PM CDT
LOCATION: APPROXIMATELY 7 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MARLOW TO 3 MILES WEST OF BRAY.


OTHER TORNADO REPORTS ARE ALSO STILL BEING INVESTIGATED FROM MAY 20.

Thunder booming lightning from the storm before it went tornadic. This is looking to the east of my work off of NW 23rd & Meridian:

Lightning with Booming Thunder - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfIa6X29e_8)

Thunderstorms continue to train over central OK.

New line of storms going up further north, west of Ponca City.


Flooding will be a concern for the new few hours. Especially on the SW sides of OKC.

Huge hail reported with the cell moving toward Ardmore right now. Baseballs.

Where does all this rain put us in the drought crisis?

SPC has modified the outlook for this afternoon, MODERATE risk in extreme SW OK with the SLIGHT risk extending further north and east. Almost grazes the SW OKC metro.

Will be interesting to see what happens down there this eve.

SPC has modified the outlook for this afternoon, MODERATE risk in extreme SW OK with the SLIGHT risk extending further north and east. Almost grazes the SW OKC metro.

Will be interesting to see what happens down there this eve.

Yeah, Slight risk actually includes McClain County, all of Grady, and extreme SW Canadian now.

SW OK storms looks like they'll move in about 5PM. Start approaching the metro around 9-10PM this evening.

where are we on the drought?

where are we on the drought?


Need to be more specific on area, but for OKC metro area, we are +1.45" above normal for this time and that does not include today. (18th wettest in recorded history)

Man, I'm sure hoping that by the time June rolls around, we're getting past the worst of all this. Guess I'm relying on history in that May is typically the big watershed month for severe weather around here, know there's nothing magic about June, just hoping the trends finally change some here in the next week or two...lots of tired folks in Moore, Little Axe, Shawnee, etc. that could use a break.

The severe weather injuring people and property is the downside to getting some of Oklahoma's most beneficial rains.

We need a full year of even-spaced above normal precip to really get back on our feet in the state. This year has gotten off to a great start. Be thankful for every drop your area gets during spring because by July into August, we may be wishing we has just a few more storms that dropped buckets on us.

I hope the current deluge lightens up a bit before I have to venture out to pick up my wife around 12:30.
(sorry . . . that sounds a bit selfish in the overall scheme of things/weather matrix.)

Thoughts on evening storm chances. I'm wonder how much of an effect this morning MCS will have. We should see a good deal of subsidence behind it that could actually stabilize the air quite a bit - something the models have shown for a couple days. So we'll need to watch for that and see.

CH-9 mentioned on its noon WX that we could have significant weather by the middle of next week.

That's because Oregon's weather becomes your weather in a few days. Very cold and wet system has come down from Gulf of Alaska. Unusual even for Oregon this time of year. Freezing level around 3000 ft. Yesterdays high in Portland was 49! Watch out, it's coming your way.

Watched ch-9 on sun and mon and saw both tornadoes form. Kind of eerie from 1200 miles away. I watched in amazement as they formed and moved along and then, all of a sudden, it dawns on me there are people down there. The wonder gives way to the horror.

The radar loop on Monday's storm was amazing as it really begins to spin up as it approaches Moore.

Maybe we'll reach 50 today.

That's because Oregon's weather becomes your weather in a few days. Very cold and wet system has come down from Gulf of Alaska. Unusual even for Oregon this time of year. Freezing level around 3000 ft. Yesterdays high in Portland was 49! Watch out, it's coming your way.

Watched ch-9 on sun and mon and saw both tornadoes form. Kind of eerie from 1200 miles away. I watched in amazement as they formed and moved along and then, all of a sudden, it dawns on me there are people down there. The wonder gives way to the horror.

The radar loop on Monday's storm was amazing as it really begins to spin up as it approaches Moore.

Maybe we'll reach 50 today.

The kicker for that storm is that its following a northwesterly flow, which I believe is generally less conducive to the very violent weather in the vein of what happened this last weekend. When we get southerly flows, that's when things get dicey. Not at all saying the former cannot produce tornadoes/violent weather, just that it isn't quite as likely. From what I understand, that current Oregon storm kicks off the weekend, but then a southerly flow returns late Saturday or into Sunday/Monday.

Venture or Anon can surely correct if I've got this wrong :)

The severe weather injuring people and property is the downside to getting some of Oklahoma's most beneficial rains.

We need a full year of even-spaced above normal precip to really get back on our feet in the state. This year has gotten off to a great start. Be thankful for every drop your area gets during spring because by July into August, we may be wishing we has just a few more storms that dropped buckets on us.

I'm liking the rain but hope it dries up enough so I can mow my yard. Lost the Corgi in it last night.

KFOR is predicting another major outbreak mid next week.

As expected risk areas pushed back west to now be west of a line from Ardmore to Lawton to Clinton to Arnett.

All of SC OK is now in full sunshine. With the previous rainfall pushing east and leaving moist ground baking under the sun. I feel like instability could actually go up.

Especially if SW OK clears out. There is some weird cloud pooling taking place over there. Watch the vis sat imagery for clearing to the SW, dewpoints in SW OK are still in the upper 60s. I think the ~50 DP will get wiped out with the sun coming out over SC and C OK here in the next few hours. Should see instability go back up.

Also to note, it may be in error - but on the revised convective outlook, SPC left the tornado parameters and coverage area the same as the outlook before. But they changed everything else accordingly.