View Full Version : 2013 Space Weather Discussion



venture
02-04-2013, 05:27 PM
Finally some stuff to talk about this year that'll be neat, so time to resurrect this old thread.

Detail provided by:
NWS Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/)

SpaceWeather.Com - SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids (http://www.spaceweather.com/)


Some details on up coming near Earth Asteroids...

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/neo/groups.html)) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones (http://www.minorplanetcenter.org/iau/lists/Dangerous.html) all the time.


On February 5, 2013 there were

1376
potentially hazardous asteroids.



Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
Asteroid
Date(UT)

Miss Distance

Size
1999 HA2 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=1999%20HA2&orb=1)
Feb 5

58 LD

1.3 km
2013 BA74 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013%20BA74&orb=1)
Feb 6

4.5 LD

41 m
2013 BS45 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013%20BS45&orb=1)
Feb 12

4.9 LD

30 m
3752 Camillo (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=3752%20Camillo&orb=1)
Feb 12

57.5 LD

3.4 km
2013 BV15 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013%20BV15&orb=1)
Feb 13

3.7 LD

59 m
1999 YK5 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=1999%20YK5&orb=1)
Feb 15

49.1 LD

2.1 km
2012 DA14 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14&orb=1)
Feb 15

0.09 LD

58 m
2009 AV (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2009%20AV&orb=1)
Feb 25

59.7 LD

1.0 km
2007 EO88 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20EO88&orb=1)
Mar 18

4.4 LD

23 m
1993 UC (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=1993%20UC&orb=1)
Mar 20

49 LD

3.8 km
1997 AP10 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=1997%20AP10&orb=1)
Mar 28

45.9 LD

1.8 km
2010 GM23 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2010%20GM23&orb=1)
Apr 13

3.9 LD

50 m
2005 NZ6 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2005%20NZ6&orb=1)
Apr 29

24.9 LD

1.3 km
2001 DQ8 (http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2001%20DQ8&orb=1)
Apr 30

74.3 LD

1.1 km

http://www.spaceweather.com/site_images/spacer.gifNotes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.



Sun Spot ConditionsAuroral OvalCoronal Holeshttp://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/04feb13/hmi200.gifhttp://www.spaceweather.com/POES_PICS/poes_latest240_northamerica.gifhttp://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/04feb13/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

venture
02-04-2013, 05:31 PM
So the one thing to point out, is that on Feb 15th, Asteroid 2012 DA14 will pass roughly 20,000 miles from the surface of the earth. From what I've read this will be the closest pass we've had in quite some time.

Also going on right now, though not visible to us until April, is Comet Lemmon is getting brighter. The Southern Hemisphere has been getting a good show for about a month now.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/02feb13/greencomet_strip.jpg

Plutonic Panda
02-04-2013, 06:19 PM
I've been looking forward to this NEO!!!!!!

frontallobotomy
02-05-2013, 12:11 PM
Cool thread

ThomPaine
02-05-2013, 10:12 PM
Thanks Venture. I appreciate the science you enlighten us with. Please keep it up!

venture
02-05-2013, 10:25 PM
Plu's CME seems to have happened. LOL

EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION: The magnetic canopy of decaying sunspot AR1667 erupted this morning (Feb. 6th @ 00:21 UT), producing a C9-class solar flare and hurling a coronal mass ejection into space. According to first-look images from NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft, the CME appears to be heading in the general direction of Earth. If so, the likely time of arrival would be Feb. 8-9. Stay tuned for updated forecasts.

From spaceweather.com

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/06feb13/hmi200.gif

Plutonic Panda
02-05-2013, 11:16 PM
and I'll bet Oklahoma will get the worst of it. lol ^ ^

venture
02-09-2013, 01:44 PM
Mercury will be visible tonight just before sunset to the west. It'll be pink with twilight blue around it.

Spaceweather.com Realtime Image Gallery (http://spaceweather.com/gallery/index.php?title=Mercury)

Another CME occurred today and will possible deal a glancing blow to the earth, so those north of us should get a good light show from the auroras.

Asteroid 2012 DA14 had its size increased to 60m as it gets closer. Still expected to miss us by 17,000 miles, which is good. It's size would deal a blow to leave a crater roughly twice the size of OKC. That would be a bad day. :)

ljbab728
02-09-2013, 07:57 PM
Mercury will be visible tonight just before sunset to the west. It'll be pink with twilight blue around it.

I went outside and looked but couldn't see it for some strange reason.

venture
02-09-2013, 11:09 PM
I went outside and looked but couldn't see it for some strange reason.

Oh yeah, those darn clouds and fog. LOL

2012 DA14 up to 62m now. Getting a better look as it gets closer obviously.

ljbab728
02-14-2013, 11:01 PM
Russian meteorite causes damage and injuries.

Meteorite falls in Russia?s Chelyabinsk region; damage and casualties unclear - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/meteorite-falls-in-russias-chelyabinsk-region-damage-and-casualties-unclear/2013/02/15/7041c0c8-7732-11e2-b102-948929030e64_story.html)

Dustin
02-14-2013, 11:33 PM
Russian meteorite causes damage and injuries.

Meteorite falls in Russia?s Chelyabinsk region; damage and casualties unclear - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/meteorite-falls-in-russias-chelyabinsk-region-damage-and-casualties-unclear/2013/02/15/7041c0c8-7732-11e2-b102-948929030e64_story.html)

This is crayzay! Video footage is just as crayzay!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7c-0iwBEswE

Watch full screen 1080p

Dustin
02-14-2013, 11:34 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Np_mpGYSBSA#!

Sonic boom from the meteor

Dustin
02-14-2013, 11:35 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=b0cRHsApzt8

Another

Dustin
02-14-2013, 11:43 PM
This is (supposedly) some damage from the impact.

http://i.imgur.com/MJUGa4h.jpg

OKCisOK4me
02-14-2013, 11:55 PM
That's absolutely insane...especially those last two videos. Its especially crazy to ask why the guy in that first video was filming in the first place! I mean, what are the chances! SMH beyond belief...

Dustin
02-15-2013, 12:02 AM
That's absolutely insane...especially those last two videos. Its especially crazy to ask why the guy in that first video was filming in the first place! I mean, what are the chances! SMH beyond belief...

Most people in Russia have dashcams because of insurance fraud and police corruption. People jump in front of cars all the time over there so they can make some money off of their injuries.

Dustin
02-15-2013, 12:23 AM
This one is incredible. Boom happens at 0:11. Turn down volume!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=b7mLUIDGqmw#!

Dustin
02-15-2013, 12:25 AM
I wonder if this is any relation to 2012 DA14? If not, what a huge coincidence!

dmoor82
02-15-2013, 12:28 AM
Will the event be able to be seen by eye?What time?

OKCisOK4me
02-15-2013, 12:49 AM
Will the event be able to be seen by eye?What time?

Come again?

SoonerBoy18
02-15-2013, 03:35 AM
Scary

Plutonic Panda
02-15-2013, 03:46 AM
BADASS!!!!!!!!!! I would've loved to have been there! Man why does all the crazy sh*t happen in Russia? lol... It's been said the world has became cooler since video cameras were introduced there ;) lol

BBatesokc
02-15-2013, 05:41 AM
Pretty good compilation here to.... Meteor shards hit Russia after explosion in the sky - video | World news | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2013/feb/15/meteor-shards-russia-explosion-video)

Snowman
02-15-2013, 07:42 AM
I wonder if this is any relation to 2012 DA14? If not, what a huge coincidence!

ESA said it was not related.

We run into an average of around 100 tones of space debris per day.

venture
02-15-2013, 10:52 AM
NASA TV will have coverage of the fly by today at 1PM. Apparently observatories in Australia are going to be used to show it in near live/real time.

NASA to Broadcast Asteroid Flyby of Earth - NASA Science (http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/13feb_asteroidcoverage/)

venture
02-15-2013, 10:55 AM
If anything to learn from the Russian event, it is a good reminder there are plenty of things off our little marble that we can't control. These things have been hitting since the planet was formed and won't stop anytime too. We are impacted by roughly 100 meteors a day. The ones like Russia doesn't happen all that often though, somewhere like once every few years.

OKCisOK4me
02-15-2013, 11:17 AM
BADASS!!!!!!!!!! I would've loved to have been there! Man why does all the crazy sh*t happen in Russia? lol... It's been said the world has became cooler since video cameras were introduced there ;) lol

Reminds me of the scene in Deep Impact, accept that, after having watched what happened in Russia, I now know that the scene in Deep Impact is way off (ie, the asteroid making a shuttle noise as it barrels over the interstate on its way out to the ocean). If that were real life, it would have sent a shockwave and probably imploded everyone in that part of the movie!

Plutonic Panda
02-15-2013, 02:51 PM
Reminds me of the scene in Deep Impact, accept that, after having watched what happened in Russia, I now know that the scene in Deep Impact is way off (ie, the asteroid making a shuttle noise as it barrels over the interstate on its way out to the ocean). If that were real life, it would have sent a shockwave and probably imploded everyone in that part of the movie!*LIKE* lol

OKCisOK4me
02-20-2013, 01:05 AM
Interesting article I'm currently reading on weather.com:

Rainbow-Colored Cloud Hides Baby Black Hole - weather.com (http://www.weather.com/news/science/space/rainbow-colored-cloud-baby-black-hole-20130219)

venture
02-20-2013, 08:23 AM
A few big updates today...


CHANCE OF FLARES: New sunspot AR1678 has developed a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for strong explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 15% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

FAST-GROWING SUNSPOT: At the beginning of this week, sunspot AR1678 didn't exist. Now it is five times wider than our entire planet. NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the sunspot's rapid emergence on Feb. 19-20:

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/19feb13/ar1678_anim.jpg

Comet wise...looks like we have 3 now to look forward to this year.

Panstarrs comes into view for us in the Northern Hemisphere next month...

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/l/Luis-Argerich-j3_EOS-6D0495_16_1360780747_lg.jpg

Comet Lemmon shows up in late April/May

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/j/James-Tse-IMG_9289ps_1361350684_lg.jpg

Finally Ison should be bright enough by December to be view-able by the naked eye.

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/a/Allen-Hwang-comet-ISON_1360956756_lg.gif

Plutonic Panda
02-20-2013, 04:35 PM
F***in awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I love this.... :D

venture
03-07-2013, 01:46 PM
SpaceWeather reporting that newly discovered Comet Siding Spring (2013 A1) is currently projected to pass with in 31,000 miles of the surface of Mars and NASA is not ruling out an impact now. Should be a good reminder our solar system is a dangerous place, though not as much of a "wild west" it use to be.

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/732064main1_comet20130305c-673.jpg

NASA - Comet to Make Close Flyby of Red Planet in October 2014 (http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/news/comet20130305.html)

Reminder, starting March 12th Comet Pan-STARRS will start to be visible on the western horizon at sunset near the crescent moon.

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/e/Emilio-Lepeley-IMG_3778-v1-space-_1362549447_lg.jpg

Comet Panstarrs (http://spaceweather.com/gallery/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=77257)
Taken by Emilio Lepeley on March 5, 2013 @ Observatorio Mamalluca, Vicuņa, Chile.

Plutonic Panda
03-07-2013, 04:38 PM
I saw this the other day. I wonder what will happen to our rovers?

ljbab728
03-07-2013, 09:49 PM
I saw this the other day. I wonder what will happen to our rovers?

They will wave hello to the comet as it passes and then go back to their drudgery.

Plutonic Panda
03-07-2013, 10:38 PM
They will wave hello to the comet as it passes and then go back to their drudgery.Let's hope haha.... Maybe take a few fan shots as well ;P

venture
03-09-2013, 01:14 AM
Good resources for the updates on the comets:
The Transient Sky - Comets, Asteroids, Meteors | Bringing you cool stuff about Comets, Asteroids, and Meteors (http://transientsky.wordpress.com/)
Comet ISON Explained (Infographic) | Comet of the Century | Space.com (http://www.space.com/19796-comet-ison-explained-infographic.html)

Couldn't find a chart for Comet Lemmon which comes into view for us in April I believe. ISON is the main show this year and could be very bright, if it survives its first trip around the Sun.

Pan-STARRS
http://transientsky.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/panstarrs-test-2finalv33.jpg?w=630&h=341

Comet ISON
http://i.space.com/images/i/000/026/245/i02/comet-ison-130307a-02.jpg?1362688295

venture
03-09-2013, 09:06 PM
Tomorrow evening should be clear it seems, so get cameras ready as Pan-STARRS is now visible for us.

BG918
03-10-2013, 01:15 PM
I'm going to be in Iceland at the end of March. Curious if the solar activity will be active enough for a good Northern Lights show after dark. I hope so, I've never seen the Lights before.

jn1780
03-10-2013, 01:40 PM
I'm going to be in Iceland at the end of March. Curious if the solar activity will be active enough for a good Northern Lights show after dark. I hope so, I've never seen the Lights before.

Hard to know what the sun will be doing at the end of March, but right now solar activity is low.

Plutonic Panda
03-10-2013, 02:27 PM
I'm going to be in Iceland at the end of March. Curious if the solar activity will be active enough for a good Northern Lights show after dark. I hope so, I've never seen the Lights before.Well, you are lucky my friend! If you see anything, please take some pics or videos. I've been wanting to go up in that part of the world for some time now. Will likely be going to Norway next year, so that will be interesting!

venture
03-10-2013, 04:51 PM
Clearing line is just now to Lawton, so its going to probably be too late for us to get the first look at Pan-STARRS tonight.

venture
03-12-2013, 07:15 PM
Few more minutes of being able to see it here...well if anyone is able to. Here is a pic from VA this evening to give a good guide.

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/r/Ray-Dileo-DSC_6692W_1363137017_lg.jpg

Comet (http://spaceweather.com/gallery/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=77757)
Taken by Ray Dileo on March 12, 2013 @ Smith Mountain Lake, southwest of Lynchburg VA

OKCisOK4me
03-12-2013, 08:35 PM
^^^Yeah, that's a lot further away from the moon then where they've been saying to look (that being in Oklahoma, just above and to the left of the moon). It will skirt diagonally up and to the right of the moon through the 18th. I've heard the best night will technically be the 16th. I looked tonight after I got off work at 8pm and never saw it. Will continue the hunt!

venture
03-12-2013, 08:40 PM
It's funny that viewers of KFOR sent in some pics yesterday. They were basing them off that graphic going around giving an example of placement. However all they were sending in pics of were contrails and didn't realize it...yet KFOR still posted them online? Sigh.

No visual for me today. Plenty of time still though!

OKCisOK4me
03-12-2013, 08:53 PM
I watched Freedom 43 and the weather guy (Chase or whatever his name is) said no pics were coming in tonight as compared to last night so maybe it was a change in the quality and crispness of the atmosphere.

venture
03-12-2013, 10:12 PM
I watched Freedom 43 and the weather guy (Chase or whatever his name is) said no pics were coming in tonight as compared to last night so maybe it was a change in the quality and crispness of the atmosphere.

Looks like they got a good one on the Facebook page, well at least KFOR's side. The only two pics I saw from KFOR (which owns Freedom 43) were jet contrails and not the comet.

ljbab728
03-12-2013, 10:30 PM
Looks like they got a good one on the Facebook page, well at least KFOR's side. The only two pics I saw from KFOR (which owns Freedom 43) were jet contrails and not the comet.

The pic I saw on their news program looked exactly like the picture you posted earlier.

venture
03-13-2013, 09:26 AM
The pic I saw on their news program looked exactly like the picture you posted earlier.

This is what I was talking about: PHOTOS: Did you see the comet? | KFOR.com (http://kfor.com/2013/03/12/photos-did-you-see-the-comet/)

Pictures 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 are either contrails or just clouds. Yet the news still puts them on there. :-P

silvergrove
03-13-2013, 01:46 PM
http://i.imgur.com/qlyBBm9.jpg

Using my boss's telescope and my camera phone, I was able to nab this image. It was hard to get the phone aligned with the eyepiece while my hands were shaking. You can see the comet with the naked eye at the periphery.

RadicalModerate
03-13-2013, 02:31 PM
It looks cold and lonely . . . like that other comet, back around the time of the Nike/San Diego anomoly--was it about 15 years ago?

Nice shot.

venture
03-14-2013, 03:18 PM
Guide for tonight's viewing of Pan-STARRS.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/14mar13/skymap.gif?PHPSESSID=e2g9a7ofnshlsslp24brcsj3v0

jn1780
03-14-2013, 04:12 PM
This is what I was talking about: PHOTOS: Did you see the comet? | KFOR.com (http://kfor.com/2013/03/12/photos-did-you-see-the-comet/)

Pictures 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 are either contrails or just clouds. Yet the news still puts them on there. :-P

Someone posted a picture of a race car with comet written on the side. Yeah, local news media is a joke. lol

venture
03-18-2013, 12:31 PM
Sky map for tonight's viewing...viewing is going to be better as it is moving away from the sun, so it'll be viewable after sunset.

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2013/18mar13/skymap.gif?PHPSESSID=h6pk9nb8sta9ujnhagiq2sa0h4

kelroy55
03-20-2013, 08:05 AM
I wish I still had my telescope :(