Snow was much heavier in N OKC, and was sticking to side streets.

As I came into work into DT OKC, it was 3 degrees warmer with rain and little bit of snow.

This is essentially the second storm in a row that the NWS called incorrectly. [Friday's dusting not a storm].

To be fair, both storms were tinkering on a few degrees. (maybe someday they will learn to be cautious and issue advisories before precip is actually falling)

Man, I bet its days like this that even the most tea-totaling meteorologist here in OKC at least contemplates taking up drinking :)

This is essentially the second storm in a row that the NWS called incorrectly. [Friday's dusting not a storm].

To be fair, both storms were tinkering on a few degrees. (maybe someday they will learn to be cautious and issue advisories before precip is actually falling)

Not just the NWS...pretty much all local media. ;)

I think we keep seeing the failings of relying or favoring a single model and its products. I've read many discussions on Faceplace and elsewhere how many were throwing out the GFS because its been off. When right now, it pretty much is the model that nailed this a few days out. It keep the higher precip totals and lower total snow accumulations (at least it actually showed them)...which is pretty much what we got.

I drove from Nichols hills to norman starting at 7:00a - road accumulation wasn't too bad, but bridges were getting slick combined with extremely large snowflakes which obstructed vision. Quite dangerous travel conditions on the highways and people had already slid off the road on SB I35 and NB I35 was a parking lot... Be careful out there!

Not just the NWS...pretty much all local media. ;)

I think we keep seeing the failings of relying or favoring a single model and its products. I've read many discussions on Faceplace and elsewhere how many were throwing out the GFS because its been off. When right now, it pretty much is the model that nailed this a few days out. It keep the higher precip totals and lower total snow accumulations (at least it actually showed them)...which is pretty much what we got.



I am pretty sure the local stations are puppets for the NWS. They never go against them it seems. KFOR is somewhat independent in forecasting, but even they often are scared to call something that the NWS is not.




Melting has begun as precip is slowing and temperatures are rebounding a few degrees. Now to wait for tonight...

I am pretty sure the local stations are puppets for the NWS. They never go against them it seems. KFOR is somewhat independent in forecasting, but even they often are scared to call something that the NWS is not.

It depends on the station I think. Yesterday it seemed KOCO was definitely in copy/paste mode and just reproducing the NWS forecast. KWTV wasn't really picking a side and KFOR went with the snow trend in the models. So as much as we all like to make fun of Morgan...LOL


Melting has begun as precip is slowing and temperatures are rebounding a few degrees. Now to wait for tonight...

Depends on where you are too. :) Here in Norman we are moving back into a more snow mode and way from rain. There is also a pretty good band of precip going back to Lawton now that still has to move through. Oklahoma Co is slowing some as the back edge for up there is right at the Canadian Co border...unless this stuff over us moves up that way more. Temp wise we are up around a degree over the last 2 hours...at 33.1°F now up from a low at 32.1 at 7:05AM. So not a major rebound here.

So, is the rain/snow done for the day in Norman?

So, is the rain/snow done for the day in Norman?

Nope. Stream of moisture runs all the way back to NW Texas so it'll continue for awhile. Plus the main system pulls through tonight which will bring the chance of heavier rain and storms along the front overnight and early tomorrow.

I'm going to be driving from OKC to Stillwater for the KU/OSU game tonight, and will be driving back after the game around 11pm. I will be relying on the updates you guys post here!

Next push of precip coming in from the south. This will be just for a few hours before drying out again. Right now appears to be mostly a rain/sleet mix (at least going by what it is in Norman right now). Could still see some snow mix in, but I think we are out of that mode for now.

I'm going to be driving from OKC to Stillwater for the KU/OSU game tonight, and will be driving back after the game around 11pm. I will be relying on the updates you guys post here!

This as of 3:02PM:

Stillwater Weather Forecast - Outlook This Afternoon & Tonight:

This
Afternoon
Snow Likely. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 60% Hi 37 °F
NWS forecast: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. East southeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight
Wintry Mix. Chance for Measurable Precipitation 100% Lo 32 °F
NWS forecast: Rain, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet before midnight, then rain, snow, and freezing rain. Low around 32. East wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

http://www.stillwaterweather.com/wxgraphic.php?type=banner_big (http://www.stillwaterweather.com/)

At one time I would guess that we had 3+ inches of snow here in Bixby, but the snow stopped and then changed to rain for an hour or so, then mixed, and is now back to moderately falling all snow. Probably about 1-2 inches at my house.

3368

This is a picture out my back window taken at 4:05 pm.

Any predictions for tonight?

GFS totally nailed that persistent band of snow in far E OK along I-40.


Tonight is another tough forecast. Sleet/snow/freezing rain showers popping up and riding over colder air over much of OK at the moment.

Temperatures the last few hours have began to fall once again as we approach evening. Ground temperatures are in the upper 30s over mosts of OK with the exception of mid 40s in the SW and close to freezing in the E where there is packed snow on the ground.


With all that said, I am not sure what to expect tonight - will wait for models runs within the hour.

Just now starting to sleet here at Britton Rd & Hefner Pkwy.

Any predictions for tonight?

A 100% chance of it being dark outside

I haven't look at the weather forecast lately, and now they are saying power outages!

That was a weird drive home. In 20 minutes, I had nothing -> light rain -> nothing -> heavy rain -> sleet -> nothing.

Link?

Lololol

Well Mike Morgan said on Channel 4 that we could possibly have ice in the morning with slick and hazardous roads as well as Power Outages. This is going to be unplesent, especially since I have school

Well the NWS going for mostly rain over OKC metro once again for tonight.


And once again I have some doubts. A couple things here, temperatures are hovering around 33-34F. Light surface winds out of the east are bringing in refrigerated air off of the snow pack in E C OK. Wetbulb temps are drifting down to right around freezing (33F currently). Ground temperatures have fallen since precip started early Wednesday morning. N OKC is around 36-37, S OKC around 37-38.

Warmer air aloft will work in throughout the night, but nighttime cooling with evaporation cooling will also be occurring. This is going to be another battle zone over C OK tonight. With all the factors mentioned above, I would not be surprised if OKC sees ice on trees/lines/bridge with snow moving in towards morning hours. It could be a total nightmare if temperatures get to 32 for a while or even lower - but on the other hand it could be 34 degrees all night and everyone flies to work @ 80mph in the rain as usual.

It has been sleeting off and in here for a while now. At times very heavily. It's accumulating on sidewalks but not really n roads. I expect that slick spots will develop soon.

What part of the city are you in, ZYX2?

What part of the city are you in, ZYX2?

Sorry, meant to add "in Tulsa" to that.

Looks like Tulsa is likely to get hit hard. I'm wondering how it is looking for Edmond and if they will cancel any school in this area.

Sorry...had stuff to do this evening. Umm latest HRRR has us with mostly rain until 1AM and then starts mixing in some snow. By 3AM looks like a transition to icing will take place and should last until the precip exits the area around 9AM. We are looking at maybe another half inch to an inch of precip over most of Central OK by the time it ends.

In addition to the Winter stuff, Severe Weather is a risk over much of the area from Norman to Ada to Durant and back to the west and south of I-40. The area about 30-40 miles either side of I-40 will probably be the most confusing to forecast in this since storms could make it up in this area. If we have icing conditions, any storms will increase the amounts significantly and cause major problems.

Instability Forecasts
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013022100/t5/bli_t5sfc_f08.png

CAPE
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013022100/t5/mucp_t5sfc_f09.png

Snowfall Forecasts...
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_jet/2013022100/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f15.png

Link?

Thank you.. Thank you very much. :)

Rain pockets developing all over SW OK right now as the next piece of energy moves into NW TX.


One thing beginning to concern me is the pocket of low level dry air sneaking into C OK from the SE. Checking on dewpoints, there is a stream of dry air that is being pushed into the southern and central parts of the state by the surface winds. Looking @ wet-bulb profiles, this air can cool to 31-32 pretty easily. I don't think it will penetrate into the OKC metro as the winds are not very strong - but if it does, there could be a surprise significant icing event over populated areas.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0179.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NW TX AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 210452Z - 210645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...INITIALLY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...AND THEN DEVELOPING/SPREADING E/NEWD ACROSS
NW TX TO SW-SRN OK. HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT...GIVEN THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO REMAIN ELEVATED.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN WIND PROFILER DATA AT JAYTON TX AND
SURROUNDING WSR-88D VWP DATA ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN A SSELY LLJ /UP TO 50 KT/. THIS IS
RESULTING IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND WAA NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED EWD FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ALONG THE BORDER OF SRN WARD/ERN REEVES COUNTIES TX THROUGH
THE VICINITY OF KAUS TO KHOU. TWO PARALLEL NNE-SSW ORIENTED BANDS OF
TSTMS IN WEST CENTRAL TX TO FAR SERN NM PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
APPEAR TO BE DELINEATING THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER FORCING...
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO W/NW TX AHEAD OF THE POWERFUL SWRN STATES
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INTERCEPTING THE NWWD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN. AT 04Z...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED MUCAPE RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG FROM N-S ALONG THE LEADING BAND OF CONVECTION. THE
RECENT 00Z RUNS OF THE 4 KM WRF-NMM/NSSL WRF-ARW EACH SUGGEST THE
ERN MOST BAND OF STORMS BECOMES THE PRIMARY ONE WITH A FAIRLY RAPID
INCREASE IN NWD AND SWD DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 06-09Z INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL OK. THIS MARKED INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE GREATER ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND AS LOW LEVEL WAA INCREASES ALONG A FURTHER
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ INTO NW-N CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL OK. EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 40-70 KT IS ALREADY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

THE INITIAL MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF STRONGER...SUSTAINED STORMS AND THUS RESULTS IN A LOWER
PROBABILITY FOR WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. GREATER CONCERN FOR AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 09Z. AT
THAT TIME...STRONGER ASCENT...GREATER MIDLEVEL COOLING AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY
INTO NW-NORTH CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK SUGGESTING A WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 02/21/2013

Rain pockets developing all over SW OK right now as the next piece of energy moves into NW TX.


One thing beginning to concern me is the pocket of low level dry air sneaking into C OK from the SE. Checking on dewpoints, there is a stream of dry air that is being pushed into the southern and central parts of the state by the surface winds. Looking @ wet-bulb profiles, this air can cool to 31-32 pretty easily. I don't think it will penetrate into the OKC metro as the winds are not very strong - but if it does, there could be a surprise significant icing event over populated areas.

This scares the crap out of me a bit...

Loop (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomain.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2013022101&plotName=ptyp_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t5)

Squall line feature gets here and its all forecast as freezing rain/ice. Would not be a fun rush hour.

As a school kid that drives himself to school, I'd like to get some weather folks opinion on a pretty generic question for such a complex thread... Does it look like there will be many school closings in the morning?

As a school kid that drives himself to school, I'd like to get some weather folks opinion on a pretty generic question for such a complex thread... Does it look like there will be many school closings in the morning?

Don't ask me. I went to school up north. :) We didn't close school unless the roads were snow packed with more than 6", wind chills under 20 below, or significant icing. Otherwise most schools just ran 1 to 2 hour delays...which I don't think I've ever seen done down here.

As a school kid that drives himself to school, I'd like to get some weather folks opinion on a pretty generic question for such a complex thread... Does it look like there will be many school closings in the morning?

Depends on where you are. If your talking about schools in the OKC Metro...I'd plan on schools being in session at this point. It's rather complicated to be sure, so my advice is to get up a little earlier than usual just to see where things are in 6-7 hrs.

Depends on where you are. If your talking about schools in the OKC Metro...I'd plan on schools being in session at this point. It's rather complicated to be sure, so my advice is to get up a little earlier than usual just to see where things are in 6-7 hrs.

Yes, I'm in the OKC metro (36th and Classen area). I shall do that. Thank you!

32 degree line closing in on Bixby. GET HERE!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0180.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE...NWRN AND
N-CNTRL OK...SRN KS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 210549Z - 211145Z

SUMMARY...INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MIXED
P-TYPES INITIALLY...ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. A
TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOWFALL MAY OCCUR IN A SW-NE CORRIDOR FROM THE
NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL KS...WHILE A MORE UNCERTAIN/MIXED
P-TYPE IS LIKELY ACROSS NWRN AND N-CNTRL OK.

DISCUSSION...STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
A SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS OVERSPREADING RICHER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION /PER RECENT RADAR LOOPS/. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN
TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO WRN OK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LIFT
BECOMES JUXTAPOSED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED WITHIN THE 300-306
K LAYER.

THE SFC FREEZING LINE...POSITIONED FROM 40 ESE GUY TO 30 E AVK PER
05Z OBSERVATIONS...IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG SWD AS MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING OCCURS /AS SUPPORTED BY 04Z RAP AND 00Z NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS/. HOWEVER...A WARM NOSE CENTERED NEAR THE 800 MB LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INITIALLY MIXED P-TYPES. AS THE LARGE-SCALE
SYSTEM AND PRECEDING LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFT EWD...COOLING WITHIN THIS
LAYER SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS A
CORRIDOR FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL KS...WITH RATES OF
1-1.5 INCH PER HR POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...THE WARM LAYER CENTERED NEAR
800 MB IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE PRONOUNCED AND ABOVE
FREEZING...WHILE NEAR- TO SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES MAY FAVOR
P-TYPES OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION RATES IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONGOING LIGHTNING S OF THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA.

..ROGERS.. 02/21/2013

Just about everyone is only a degree or two above freezing at this point. Dewpoints are right around 30 to 33 degrees over most areas too, so its going to be a close call for some areas to get major icing or just a cold rain.

sounded like thunder, NW okc, pets hiding, lol! waking me up, suppose its a trial run for next few months...

as long as the elec doesn't go out...

Storms increasing in intensity. Strongest cell right now in the Metro area is in SW Canadian/NW Caddo/NW Grady. Currently some small hail with it approaching Minco. Hail size just under 1" in diameter. This storm is moving ENE.

Other interesting storm is in Harmon/Greer counties. Hail in this one is up around 1.32" by radar estimates (any sleet could be interfering with this). Storm is moving NE. Won't be shocked to see this SVR warned if hail size keeps up.

Special weather statement
national weather service norman ok
136 am cst thu feb 21 2013


okz021-022-034-035-210800-
greer ok-kiowa ok-wa****a ok-beckham ok-
136 am cst thu feb 21 2013


...significant weather advisory for eastern greer...northwestern
kiowa...southwestern wa****a and southeastern beckham counties until
200 am cst...


At 132 am cst...a strong thunderstorm was located near mangum...
moving northeast at 70 mph.


Hazards include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...


Locations impacted include...
Mangum...granite...sentinel...lone wolf...retrop...brinkman...
Altus-lugert lake and hester.

Hail just came down in N OKC.

Thunder and lightning here in Norman. Crazy.

Thunder and lightning here in Norman. Crazy.

The same in Stillwater as of 2:20AM with rain and some sleet. Temp. at 33. So no thunder snow. It will be interesting to see how conditions are like after sunrise.

Airport is pretty much closed ufn.

Airport closed???

OMG, I just trudged through the ugliest snow/sleet/hail/ice/thunder storm EVER to drop husband off for a flight. Am I going to have to go back out into that????

Is it really that bad out there? I just got the text that school is canceled.

I have no idea how it is in OKC, proper, but it is terrible out in far SW OKC. I keep looking at the weather reports and most are reporting just rain. Here - and from here to the airport - it was sleet, ice, hail, snow, rain and ice. The best part of the drive was the lightning because then I could see. It does seem to be quieting down, now. The thunder, earlier, was intense.

Airport is pretty much closed ufn.

I think it is doing okay, now. Husband was boarding for his 6:30 flight just a few minutes ago.

I woke up in the middle of the night to crazy hail here in NW OKC about 2am, and when I looked out just now the ground was white with sleet. I didn't think it would be that bad to drive on.

I'm the weirdo who didn't want a snow/ice day. It's too close to band contest :/ I also already washed my hair and am quite awake.

Be safe, everyone.

My alarm just went off but I've been up since 1:45 - they launched Husband so no sleep for any of us. I also washed my hair but am not wide awake - I would much rather go back and catch some ZZZZ's. No rest for the wicked, however. Wondering how the morning commute is going to go.

I can not wait until spring gets here, I am sick of the winter crap!

I can not wait until spring gets here, I am sick of the winter crap!

i still want a snow day ... hopefully the cold next week brings lots of snow

Can someone tell me....is the water equivalent the same for sleet as it snow? Seems like it be a bit more dense therefore more moisture. Yes? No?

Can someone tell me....is the water equivalent the same for sleet as it snow? Seems like it be a bit more dense therefore more moisture. Yes? No?

An inch thick of sleet would be closer to water than snow but an inch of sleet is still slightly less dense than an inch of water would be, depending on temperature it formed at a foot of snow may not be an inch of water

People never cease to astound me. Had a guy in a Mustang swerving between lanes and tailgating me and some other cars taking our time down the crummy parts of Hefner. When he finally gets an opening, he goes flying down the road kicking crap all over the place. Guy hadn't even bothered to brush or even defrost his rear window.

I've driven a Mustang in bad weather. I certainly wouldn't be doing 55 down a city street.

I drive a jeep and I wouldn't be doing 55 either.

I drive a jeep and I wouldn't be doing 55 either.

Well, yes. But you have some chance of not ending up in a ditch. My experiences in a 2000 Mustang in similar conditions were akin to trying to steer a pissed off, wet cat back into a tub of water. No one has fun, and you're just going to get hurt.

Roads got noticeably better the farther east I went, aside from the Britton/235 overpass which was a nasty mess.

Can someone tell me....is the water equivalent the same for sleet as it snow? Seems like it be a bit more dense therefore more moisture. Yes? No?

The ratio is around 2:1 or 3:1 for sleet.

Woke up this morning at 6AM to heavy sleet with lightning and thunder at 32F. Only the second time I've ever witnessed thundersleet (even though the METAR reported thundersnow all morning).