Even though we didn't get the snow I was hoping for I still want to thank Venture, Anonymous and the others that contributed to keeping us informed. Forecasting isn't an exact science and Mother Nature doesn't always cooperate and do what she's supposed to do.

This. I spent all day yesterday on this board, and I really appreciate the effort you guys put into keeping us all informed.

Venture -- any totals on actual precip yesterday? It rained for so long, and a good steady rain at that, I was hoping to hear a good number!

The KOCO Tornado app has a rainfall option and shows 1.08" at WRWA to 1.36" in Edmond.

All amounts will rise in N, W, and NW OK as the snow melts into the guages:

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.48hr.png




And this is a map of totals from essentially the entire month of February: [snow melt is still not accounted for yet in the same areas listed above]

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/rainrfc.720hr.png

From some quick and dirty googling, that's over twice the normal rain for February.

I'll take it.

With apologies to our well-respected meteorologists here...

3390

Mike Morgan was kinda right

Here is the snow total map updates from NWS Norman...the tight gradient definitely came true. 1" in W OKC to 8-9" in Canadian County. So roughly 30 miles from a little dusting to the city being pretty well a mess today.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image7.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image1.jpg

Mike Morgan was kinda right

Keep in mind Morgan was forecasting 3-6" still through yesterday morning until he backed off. So while we jumped ship earlier that most, he still bit the bait with most of us instead of sticking to the forecast models that kept the accumulating snow west of OKC since Friday.

One (of many) things that I don't really understand is why people would want or hope for snow instead of rain. OK, it's white instead of clear . . . I don't get it. Is it the snow forts, igloos, snowball fights, snowmen, sledding or what? One of the reasons I moved to Oklahoma decades ago was to get away from a lot of snow.I grew up in Oklahoma so I didn't move here to get away from snow. But after the blizzards of '09/'10 I swore if it ever did that again we're moving to Florida.

Totals from out in the Panhandles. The models didn't really zero in on the widespread heavy snow amounts out there until the event was pretty much underway.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ama/graphicast/image3.jpg

I grew up in Oklahoma so I didn't move here to get away from snow. But after the blizzards of '09/'10 I swore if it ever did that again we're moving to Florida.

Although I gave up motorcycles a long time ago . . . (we only had a three month riding season). =)
I think I used to hate the shoveling the most. the other snow stuff was alright but not worth the cost.

Thanks, Again, Venture! really.

One (of many) things that I don't really understand is why people would want or hope for snow instead of rain. OK, it's white instead of clear . . . I don't get it. Is it the snow forts, igloos, snowball fights, snowmen, sledding or what? One of the reasons I moved to Oklahoma decades ago was to get away from a lot of snow.

i enjoy getting a snow day and not going to work

As always take this with grain of salt

https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans
Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)
40 minutes ago.

Next Winter Storm Update: Yeah, like I said, there's always another storm, eventually. So I took a peak at the long range model info. Remember we're stuck in an active and colder than normal pattern through the 3rd week of March. That means things can sneak up on you. However, right now, indications are that the next *big* snow storm for parts of Oklahoma will be around the weekend of March 9th. I've gotten lucky on these long range forecasts all winter; let's see if this one pans out too. Once we get within a few days of the arrival, we'll be able to detail the location and timing, assuming nothing changes of course. Stay tuned!

As always take this with grain of salt

https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans
Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)
40 minutes ago.

Next Winter Storm Update: Yeah, like I said, there's always another storm, eventually. So I took a peak at the long range model info. Remember we're stuck in an active and colder than normal pattern through the 3rd week of March. That means things can sneak up on you. However, right now, indications are that the next *big* snow storm for parts of Oklahoma will be around the weekend of March 9th. I've gotten lucky on these long range forecasts all winter; let's see if this one pans out too. Once we get within a few days of the arrival, we'll be able to detail the location and timing, assuming nothing changes of course. Stay tuned!

Hopefully, the storm part will pan out regardless of what form the liquid falls in. March 9th is pushing it for winter weather. A couple of degrees higher and their wouldn't have been a blizzard out west yesterday.

I would say more of a chance of snow right now, not really a big snow storm. There is no run-to-run consistency yet on the system for March 9th/10th.

06Z Feb 25: Light snow Western PH and far NE OK.
12Z Feb 25: Light accumulation far NE OK, storm system sticks to mainly Ohio Valley.
18Z Feb 25: No system.
00Z Feb 26: Light snow accumulation body of OK.
06Z Feb 26: Moderate to Heavy Snow over SW, SC, and Central OK into NE OK.
12Z Feb 26: Light snow far Eastern OK.

If Tuttle is defining "right now" as a run from last night and not that latest one, sure. However, until there is any consistent indication that this is going to be a significant storm it is all throwing darts in a dark room. If I was officially forecasting this I would say there are good indications we might have snow in the state on one of those two days, and I would favor Eastern OK since that is the only constant in this.

Comparison between the 12Z (first graphic) and the earlier 6Z snowfall forecast.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/02/26/12/GFS_3_2013022612_F300_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/02/26/06/GFS_3_2013022606_F300_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

So, aside from the twitterverse, where is Aaron Tuttle, nowadays?

So, aside from the twitterverse, where is Aaron Tuttle, nowadays?

He's been working at the FAA since he left KOCO.

Hopefully, the storm part will pan out regardless of what form the liquid falls in. March 9th is pushing it for winter weather. A couple of degrees higher and their wouldn't have been a blizzard out west yesterday. I agree with you.

March can be a dry month, we need to keep the storms systems rolling in every few days.
Some of the worst western Oklahoma/ Kansas/ Panhandles blizzards have occurred in late March.

I just created this:

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8238/8511638454_7a441e896e.jpg

Nice weather today!

https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

(BTW the long range experimental model I glance at calls for an identical winter storm, same track/outcome/everything on Sunday the 10th. The odds of this actually happening have got to be astronomical)

I just created this:

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8238/8511638454_7a441e896e.jpgOMG!!!! Can I post this on my Facebook? I didn't just want to steal it and post it. lol

https://www.facebook.com/ATsFans

(BTW the long range experimental model I glance at calls for an identical winter storm, same track/outcome/everything on Sunday the 10th. The odds of this actually happening have got to be astronomical)

18Z GFS moves the system through early on the 9th. Dry West and Central, some light precip all East...mainly rain as well. So it is what it is. We've been over this many times before on these long range outlooks. They'll change 39 times before it actually happens. Zero consistency with the models = me not really caring too much right now.

There was a brutal patch of dry air just over OKC. Even to the east of us they were getting winter precep. In this case and to the untrained eye, it looked like just bad luck. That little pocket of no-precip hung out on a bullseye over OKC for a very long time.
For several years in Austin it seemed like the had a high pressure area centered on the Austin area, it seemed every storm either went north of our dome from Waco north or south around San Antonio. That was why the droughts and extreme temps kept going for months with no end in sight.

We have had some more snow today, out here in SE Aurora we have had quite a bit more than what we had around the office in Denver.

Since attention was brought to March 9th, I wanted to share the 00Z GFS run tonight. Right now, no snow...but could be a good amount of rain. Bulls-eye for the precip is right over Norman. Upper air profiles are way too warm, so it won't even be borderline if we go by this. Again, a lot of this is meaningless, but there is something coming through that weekend so we just need to watch it.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/02/27/00/GFS_3_2013022700_F252_PCPIN_12_HR.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013022700_F252_35.5000N_97.5000W.png

that graph bears an ominous resemblance to a tornado . . .

and of course the 9th is a Saturday....

that graph bears an ominous resemblance to a tornado . . .

well, it is from twisterdata.com ;–)

Let's call it what it is, while something could happen, we're talking 240 hours out from now... ensemble means are scattered around ..as they should be this far out...

3395

Let's call it what it is, while something could happen, we're talking 240 hours out from now... ensemble means are scattered around ..as they should be this far out...

Indeed. Which is why we always restate anything that far out is pretty worthless to put much weight behind. Its nice to watch trends to see how things evolve, but right now nothing to get excited about.

OMG!!!! Can I post this on my Facebook? I didn't just want to steal it and post it. lol

Go for it, lol.

Indeed. Which is why we always restate anything that far out is pretty worthless to put much weight behind. Its nice to watch trends to see how things evolve, but right now nothing to get excited about.

I don’t put any weight behind the AT prediction other than to watch the time space for activity.
However I do find fun in speculating about what something like this might or might not do.
Anyone with a brain knows not to take a forecast this far out with anything but a grain of salt and I know you know that.:D

Mike Morgan KFOR TV 4 Just indicated that we could have a heavy precipitation storm on or about March 9 and 10th and that we may not have cold enough weather in OKC..... for a lot of snow?

Great news since we still need a lot more moisture

Mike Morgan KFOR TV 4 Just indicated that . . .
Great news since we still need a lot more moisture

. . . and don't his suits look great? I don't wear a tie but he sure can pick some nice ones.

Speaking of long range forecasts The Weather Channel has us colder than average in March and warmer than average in April and May

I will have to consult my current Farmer's Almanac to establish the veracity here . . . maybe first thing tomorrow morning.

btw, OKCisOK4me: the Blizzard Survival Graphic, above, is GENIUS. thanks for implied permission to use it for non prophet/profit purposes.(OKCisOk4me)
(it makes me laugh every time i look at it. and that is not a bad thing. yet. =)

The Winter Storm of February 24-26. 2013 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130225)


Synopsis


For the third consecutive week, a major winter storm affected the southern Plains with widespread snowfall on February 24-26. An upper level storm system dove southeast through the Great Basin into New Mexico, then intensified rapidly as it lifted east-northeast through West Texas and the Red River Valley. Before any wintry precipitation fell, a few severe thunderstorms developed over southwest Oklahoma along a strong cold front. However, behind this front, very cold air allowed liquid precipitation to change over to snow and sleet by Sunday evening. The strength of this storm allowed it to produce significantly more wind than the ones which struck earlier in the month, leading to blizzard conditions in parts of northern and western Oklahoma.

A strong cold front pushed through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on the afternoon and evening of February 24, reaching into far western Oklahoma by midnight. Heavy snowfall developed behind the front, then gradually spread eastward overnight as temperatures fell to near or below freezing across western and northern Oklahoma. By early afternoon on February 25, moderate to heavy snow was occurring over most areas northwest of a line from Hollis to Kingfisher. Very heavy snowbands and occasional thundersnow led to significant snow accumulations over a large part of northwest Oklahoma. Several areas saw snowfall in excess of 15 inches, and when combined with the snow that was already present from the winter storm a few days before, snow depths of up to 25 inches were reported in localized areas. Strong and gusty winds led to snow drifts up to 5 to 8 feet in depth, shutting down many highways and secondary roads in western Oklahoma.

The heavy wet nature of the snow caused some structural damage at Alva, Cherokee, and Woodward. Widespread power outages were reported due to snow-covered power lines and downed trees and tree limbs. The rain-snow line hovered near the I-44 corridor and Oklahoma City metro area for much of the afternoon, with many areas to the east only changing to snow after sunset as the event was winding down. The snow gradually tapered off from west to east during the late afternoon and evening, with most of the accumulating snow in central Oklahoma ending by midnight.

That is a better, and more exciting, report of observed current events than most of the coverage of the most recent NASCAR event in Daytona.
Thank You! (really! it was a lot closer to home!)

So upcoming weather...

Tomorrow looks like some very light rain/snow in the area...roughly western half of the state. Hardly any accumulation of anything, so zero to get excited about.

The March 9th timeframe continues to show a pretty good system coming through. Rain amounts are down a bunch from what they were, but doesn't really matter right now. This going to keep changing a lot, but want to keep updating it while it keeps showing up.

March 9th - through 6AM: Light (SE) to moderate (NW) rain over the state. NW could be mixing with some snow.
March 9th - through 6PM: Light (NW) to Moderate (Central) precip west of I-35. Moderate to Heavy (East) precip east of I-35. Central and West could see a change over to some winter precip, but looks pretty marginal right now.
March 10th - through 6AM: Light precip far South and SE OK, dry everywhere else.

Total QPF looks like...
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/02/28/12/GFS_3_2013022812_F240_PCPIN_48_HR.png

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pdfs/ok_dm.pdf The updated drought situation. This moisture really helped. It was a bummer we didn't get a decent snowstorm (but we are in a subtropical climate :p). Anyways this storm really put dent in the drought.

From Nick Bender's Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=617662564926295&set=a.381919475167273.110172.199449703414252&type=1&theater

Keep in mind there is a a very big difference with short term drought and long term drought. It also varies on which index you use.

Either way, we have a long long way to go. The short term relief is great, but we need to multiply it by 20. :)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdohomeweb.gif

Keep in mind there is a a very big difference with short term drought and long term drought. It also varies on which index you use.

Either way, we have a long long way to go. The short term relief is great, but we need to multiply it by 20. :)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdohomeweb.gif

Well, hey, at least Georgia's getting some relief, hopefully. Haven't they been in a drought for quite a few years?

Well, hey, at least Georgia's getting some relief, hopefully. Haven't they been in a drought for quite a few years?

Yeah many years. So they need it just the same. They do benefit though by having better sources of fresh water too with all the rivers out there. There is a reason why the Gov't screwed the Native Americans over and stuck them in Oklahoma. :-P LOL

Keep in mind there is a a very big difference with short term drought and long term drought. It also varies on which index you use.TBH, I didn't really think about that.

TBH, I didn't really think about that.

It's okay. Not many really do. You'll see a lot of people being like "why can't I water, it just rained?!?!?" and get all grumpy. Honestly, the state really just needs to do an all out watering ban for the year until we can get the water supply recovered. People don't need to be worrying about green grass when it could get to the point where water pressure falls to critical levels in Summer. Norman for instance is working to get more water out from T-Bird by buying rights that Midwest City (or Del City) don't use. This is after the oversight board already cut each city's allotment by 10% going forward. Norman's back up emergency supply then comes from OKC, which I don't see them being too willing to sell water when they are having problems of their own.

It'll come down to...do you want green grass or enough water pressure for fire crews (let alone take a shower)? It may very well be that type of decision. For me...I'll take the year off mowing if I have to. :)

NWS Norman put up this winter review today (meteorological winter ends today)...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/oun/graphicast/image7.jpg

It's okay. Not many really do. You'll see a lot of people being like "why can't I water, it just rained?!?!?" and get all grumpy. Honestly, the state really just needs to do an all out watering ban for the year until we can get the water supply recovered. People don't need to be worrying about green grass when it could get to the point where water pressure falls to critical levels in Summer. Norman for instance is working to get more water out from T-Bird by buying rights that Midwest City (or Del City) don't use. This is after the oversight board already cut each city's allotment by 10% going forward. Norman's back up emergency supply then comes from OKC, which I don't see them being too willing to sell water when they are having problems of their own.This!!! I also think the city needs to start forcing new construction to include water saving technology such as low flow faucets and toilets that use less water. In my house, I just installed a water tank under my sink in the bathrooms that catch water from the sink and use the excess water and pumps it to the toilet. It filters it of course, but I think that will save quite a bit of water. Imagine if every house did that if every restaurant, school, office complex did that how much water would be saved. The filter only has to be changed once a week, depending on how much soap is used from washing hands and how often you brush your teeth, ect. Very nice.

Look familiar?

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/02/28/18/GFS_3_2013022818_F264_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Total QPF for the March 9-10 storm:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/02/28/18/GFS_3_2013022818_F264_PCPIN_96_HR.png

For some of the weather geeks here. The FAA Terminal Doppler Radar at Will Rogers will be one of the sites getting an upgrade in April (12th) to product products every minute. Regular NEXRAD typically is 3-7 minutes in its sweep depending on the product. The TDWR at OKC spits out Level 3 data and if you have GRLevel3 you'll be able to view it.

Details: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin13-3tdwr.htm

The radar has a range radius around 50 miles out from the site, so it covers pretty much the entire metro areas for the most part. For severe weather season I'm hoping to have a new server up and running that will broadcast this date on my website.

How will it compare to OU-Prime?

How will it compare to OU-Prime?

It really doesn't. The radar is already there, this is just an upgrade on the sweep times. The TDWR radars are just there mainly for windshear detection, but also provide a bit higher resolution image over a short distance.

The March 9-10th system still in the models. Showing a pretty heavy rainfall still as well with very little snow (mainly on the back edge in far NW OK). We do cool down behind it but the precip moves off very fast. The 00Z GFS pegs precip to start the evening on the 8th and pick up through the 9th and end in central OK the morning of the 10th, but linger through the day in SE OK.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/03/01/00/GFS_3_2013030100_F264_PCPIN_96_HR.png

...I just installed a water tank under my sink in the bathrooms that catch water from the sink and use the excess water and pumps it to the toilet...

This is probably the coolest thing I've ever seen you type. That's some mad skillz, yo!

Thanx man!!! :D There are kits available too I've found out. I'm sure it doesn't really make a difference since I'm just one person, but if just half of OKC did this, it would really amount to something. :)

Thanx man!!! :D There are kits available too I've found out. I'm sure it doesn't really make a difference since I'm just one person, but if just half of OKC did this, it would really amount to something. :)

Cool idea !!!! I've always thought they needed treated waste water for watering lawns.

This is what you call a WTF moment in weather models. I think we can say with a 40% likelihood it's going to rain between 9th and 12th. Right now it continues to look like it'll be all rain. Which if this QPF forecast is anywhere near accurate (which I highly...highly...did I say highly...doubt), that is a good thing LOL...

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2013/03/01/12/GFS_3_2013030112_F264_PCPIN_96_HR.png

Maybe the tide's-a-turnin' Venture.

Maybe the tide's-a-turnin' Venture.

Oh there will be a tide alright if that verifies. Around Lindsey and McGee. :-P

Region 11 Forecast (Texas-Oklahoma) MAR. 2013
1-7 Rain to snow north, showers south; warm, then cold.

I think The Old Farmer's Almanac (by Robert B. Thomas) nailed it.
(or maybe not) (i haven't yet figured out how to use the tide tables =)

What is QPF? Quality Precipitation Forecast? And is that map for liquid precip? Heck, that would be a roof crusher up around Woodward if all that fell as snow!