View Full Version : Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012



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venture
12-03-2012, 12:09 AM
December marks the start of meteorological winter, even though record highs have been widespread. History has shown that Oklahoma weather during this time of year can fluctuate a lot. Fire Danger also goes up significantly as vegetation is now dormant. Severe weather, while not typical isn't completely rare this time of year. The severe weather images though will be removed for the winter to clear things up a bit in this post.


This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Current Conditions


Norman Warning Area MapTulsa County Warning Area Maphttp://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/oun.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/tsa.png (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/)Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Red Flag Warning | Fire Warning | Severe Weather Statement | Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook | Fire Weather Watch
Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service (http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php)Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions
Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnighthttp://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.wx.gif (http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/current_conditions/current_conditions)
Severe Weather Information

Current Watches (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)Current Mesoscale Discussions (MCD) (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/validww.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/validmd.png (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/)
Snowfall Images
24 Hour Snowfall Totalshttp://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map_only.php?var=snowfall_24_h&min_x=-103.5&min_y=33.0&max_x=-94.0&max_y=38.0&bgvar=dem&shdvar=shading&title=2&width=600&height=450&font=0&lbl=m&palette=0&h_o=0&metric=0&snap=1&o6=1&o9=1&o13=1
6 Hour Snowfall Forecasts (http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/oklahoma-snowfall-forecast.htm)
6 Hr12 Hr18 Hr24 Hr30 Hr36 Hr42 Hr48 Hrhttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt1_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt2_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt3_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt4_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt5_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt6_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt7_oklahoma.pnghttp://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/images/oklahoma/SnowAmt8_oklahoma.pngFire Weather Images


Oklahoma Mesonet 24-inch Fractional Weather Index Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.daily.current.FW60.grad.png?1343628443278O klahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.RELH.grad.png

Oklahoma Mesonet -Burn Index Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://okfire.mesonet.org//data/public/mesonet/models/realtime/nfd/images/latest.bi.gif?1343629065Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/daily/mesonet.rainfall.quarterinch.png

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
*Click any above graphic to view discussion.*
Day 1 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)Day 2 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)Days 3 to 8 (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day1otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/day2otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/imgs/day38otlk_fire.gif (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)



References



COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Surface and Upper Air Data (http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/)
NWS Norman Page: NWS (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/)
Storm Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Center (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/)
Oklahoma Mesonet: Mesonet | Home Page (http://www.mesonet.org/)
West Texas Mesonet: Texas Tech University : West Texas Mesonet (http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/)
Oklahoma Fire Weather: NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=fireweather)
Oklahoma Road Conditions: Road Conditions (http://www.dps.state.ok.us/cgi-bin/weathermap.cgi)
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: The Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference (http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php) -or- SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE (http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/)
TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts (http://www.twisterdata.com/)
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page (http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm)
NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/)
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/)
HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)


Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) (http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/)
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly (http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/)
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.




State Radar ImagesWSR-88D Twin Lakes (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/TLX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TLX&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Frederick (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/FDR_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=fdr&loop=yes)
WSR-88D Vance AFB (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=vnx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no)Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)
http://radar.weather.gov/lite/NCR/VNX_loop.gif (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=VNX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes)


​State Satellite Images

Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)
Image will appear blank overnight.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.visible.png)Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)
Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png (http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/noaa/sat/maps/realtime/latest.goes_east.ir.png)

venture
12-03-2012, 12:25 AM
New thread is going now, so wanted to give an outlook based on tonight's GFS run. I do want to say for several days now it keeps wanting to bring cold air down south, and that hasn't change. Precip chances keep bouncing all over the place, so that part of the forecast is very low confidence at this point.

DatePM HighAM LowWeather24HR Precip Ending 8AMSnowfall Ending 8AMMonday, December 03, 2012Low 70sNear 60Very slight chance of storms east.< 0.10"Tuesday, December 04, 2012Low 60sNear 50Slight chance storms SE< 0.10"Wednesday, December 05, 2012Upper 50sLow 40sDry0.00"Thursday, December 06, 2012Low 60sLow 40sDry0.00"Friday, December 07, 2012Mid 50sLow 40sSlight chance of rain< 0.10"Saturday, December 08, 2012Low 60sUpper 40sSlight chance of rain< 0.10"Sunday, December 09, 2012Upper 60sUpper 50sChance of rain0.10"Monday, December 10, 2012Near 60Mid 60sChance of rain0.10 - 0.50"TraceTuesday, December 11, 2012Mid 20sNear 30Rain to Snow0.50 - 0.80"3-6"Wednesday, December 12, 2012Mid TeensUpper TeensDry0.00"Thursday, December 13, 2012Mid 30sNear 20Flurries/Light Drizzle< 0.10"Friday, December 14, 2012Mid 30sMid 30sFlurries/Light DrizzleTraceSaturday, December 15, 2012Near 50Low 30sDry0.00"Sunday, December 16, 2012Mid 30sNear 30Dry0.00"Monday, December 17, 2012Mid 20sMid 20sDry0.00"Tuesday, December 18, 2012Upper 20sLow 20sDry0.00"

Bostonfan
12-03-2012, 07:44 AM
Looks like next week will feel much more like Christmas. I must say, it sure hard to get into the spirit with temps in the 70's.

kelroy55
12-03-2012, 07:52 AM
Tuesday, December 11, 2012 Mid 20s Near 30 Rain to Snow 0.50 - 0.80" 3-6"
Wednesday, December 12, 2012 Mid Teens Upper Teens Dry 0.00"
Thursday, December 13, 2012 Mid 30s Near 20 Flurries/Light Drizzle < 0.10"
Friday, December 14, 2012 Mid 30s Mid 30s Flurries/Light Drizzle Trace

Let's just skip those 4 days

Plutonic Panda
12-03-2012, 10:43 AM
Tuesday, December 11, 2012 Mid 20s Near 30 Rain to Snow 0.50 - 0.80" 3-6"
Wednesday, December 12, 2012 Mid Teens Upper Teens Dry 0.00"
Thursday, December 13, 2012 Mid 30s Near 20 Flurries/Light Drizzle < 0.10"
Friday, December 14, 2012 Mid 30s Mid 30s Flurries/Light Drizzle Trace

Let's just skip those 4 daysnooooooooo!!! lol :)

kelroy55
12-03-2012, 11:06 AM
nooooooooo!!! lol :)

LOL well if it's going to snow make it worthwhile and drop a foot.

ou48A
12-03-2012, 04:42 PM
Our state desperately needs moisture of any type.

Several very heavy wet snows sure would help.

venture
12-03-2012, 05:21 PM
Our state desperately needs moisture of any type.

Several very heavy wet snows sure would help.

Definitely when it would allow the moisture to soak in and not run off.

GFS is still showing snowfall start on Monday morning for a good portion of Oklahoma. It is also opening the barn door late next week for a true arctic outbreak. Seems a bit early, but we'll see how it evolves.

blangtang
12-03-2012, 06:27 PM
I ran my A/C today. I want to look back at this thread during a blizzard.

ShiroiHikari
12-03-2012, 09:42 PM
Had to run my AC a bit today too.

I'd love some snow to help me get in the spirit. But honestly, at this point I'll settle for some damn rain! I hate to think what's going to happen if this drought continues...

Bunty
12-04-2012, 02:42 AM
Had to run my AC a bit today too.

I'd love some snow to help me get in the spirit. But honestly, at this point I'll settle for some damn rain! I hate to think what's going to happen if this drought continues...

Really. The drought is so bad in Stillwater that a small part of the bottom of Boomer Lake is starting to show as pictured. 2 to 2 1/2 inches in the area since September have been far from enough. What kind of white birds are those? Egrets?

http://stillwaterweather.com/photos/boomerlakedrought1.jpg

sacolton
12-04-2012, 11:45 AM
No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?

Plutonic Panda
12-04-2012, 12:43 PM
No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?I don't recall anyone saying it will be massive and a life threatening storm.

Jesseda
12-04-2012, 12:44 PM
No news about the massive killer winter snow storm that is coming to destroy us all on Monday?

yeah you would think if there was any chance of snow next week that the news would be over dramatic with it by now

Anonymous.
12-04-2012, 01:01 PM
They have learned their lesson. This isn't their first rodeo. While the first winter event of the season is definitely exciting (from a meteorological standpoint) it is additionally exciting at the moment since the weather has been stagnant since September. OKC has the best local weather coverage, and when the weather is boring here - the guys and gals get bored also. So this is finally something to look forward to.


Anyways, don't expect doomsday forecasts (if needed) until Saturday night when the exact track and precip bulbs are developing as the storm slides out of the Rockies.


The even longer term models show a more significant event later in the week as well, but once again the certainty this far out is so small that it is comical to even mention it in a news cast 10 days out.

ou48A
12-04-2012, 01:04 PM
I am surprised our local news media really hasnít recognized the severity of our drought in the northern areas of our state.

In the far northern areas the winter wheat crop really is on the verge of being as bad as the dust bowl days.
Without significant moisture very soon this is an economic disaster in the making in large areas of our state.

sacolton
12-04-2012, 04:36 PM
I was looking at this ...

3019

ou48A
12-04-2012, 05:12 PM
The even longer term models show a more significant event later in the week as well, but once again the certainty this far out is so small that it is comical to even mention it in a news cast 10 days out.



While most of us understand the accuracy of a 10 or more day forecast is still very poor, it’s still good to know that there is possibility of a very significant cold / ice/ snow event toward the end of next week.

It helps some people with their planning and makes me/us start paying more attention to forecast

venture
12-04-2012, 06:14 PM
I'll do another forecast this evening with the 00Z GFS run and see what it spits out. We are still looking at about 48 hours until the main storm comes ashore out west where the weather balloons can do their work.

Anonymous.
12-05-2012, 08:16 AM
Latest trends are for OKC to get nothing but cold dry air. System little further north and less moisture.

Hopefully they will come back around, we could use some liquid!

SoonerDave
12-05-2012, 08:34 AM
Yeah, Jed on Ch9 was saying the prospects for snow had just about, ahem, evaporated (my bad joke, not his). Just no moisture coming in with these systems.

venture
12-05-2012, 11:02 AM
Yeah, Jed on Ch9 was saying the prospects for snow had just about, ahem, evaporated (my bad joke, not his). Just no moisture coming in with these systems.

Well there will be plenty of moisture, just not for us. :)

Looking at a good swath of 3-6" across KS, 6-9" across MO into the IL/WI.

kelroy55
12-05-2012, 11:07 AM
Well there will be plenty of moisture, just not for us. :)

Looking at a good swath of 3-6" across KS, 6-9" across MO into the IL/WI.

They get all the fun

Bill Robertson
12-05-2012, 11:20 AM
Latest trends are for OKC to get nothing but cold dry air. System little further north and less moisture.

Hopefully they will come back around, we could use some liquid!Liquid falling from the sky I want. Just not frozen. Snow causes me a lot of extra hours of labor that I'm not used to and that I don't get paid for.

venture
12-05-2012, 12:34 PM
This gives you a good idea what we are looking at, per GFS at 12Z...

Please note the storm system will not be making landfall until early Friday morning over BC, so limited upper air readings until then. Things could change pretty drastically. The main track of the low will would drop it down from BC through MT, WY, CO into OK and then swing northeast along I-44 up into Northern OH. If it could goes further into TX, things can change.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/12/05/12/GFS_3_2012120512_F144_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Bill gronos
12-05-2012, 06:14 PM
Anybody notice the unusual red sky just after 5pm today?

It was another nice red sunset, but this evening the sky was red 360 degrees around, even quite low in the sky due east. I can't remember seeing this effect before.

Did a web search and found that a lot of people on the Northwest US coast noticed something very similar Dec 1, 2012: sky strangely red near sunset in all directions. Several of the posters commented that it was scary-looking. Here is the link for their discussion: Red Sky In South Puget Sound Region With Pics (http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2065371/pg1)

Can we get a weather guy/gal take on the all-over red sky this evening?

Plutonic Panda
12-05-2012, 06:50 PM
I kinda noticed a weird sky, but I didn't pay attention to the East. This might be a little off subject, but has anyone noticed the haze that seems to be forming along the highways. It seems that traffic counts have shot wayyyyyy the hell up since even a year ago and I don't know whether OKC is becoming like Dallas or L.A. where as smog is starting to become a common occurrence in the morning or what, but I just started noticing it last week.

JamesFiend
12-05-2012, 06:53 PM
I kinda noticed a weird sky, but I didn't pay attention to the East. This might be a little off subject, but has anyone noticed the haze that seems to be forming along the highways. It seems that traffic counts have shot wayyyyyy the hell up since even a year ago and I don't weather OKC is becoming like Dallas or L.A. where as smog is starting to become a common occurrence in the morning or what, but I just started noticing it last week.

Definitely have noticed a brown haze around the city coming into work from out east every morning. What a bummer.

catch22
12-05-2012, 06:53 PM
Probably a very high altitude thin layer of haze reflecting light back across the sky.

Plutonic Panda
12-05-2012, 07:30 PM
Definitely have noticed a brown haze around the city coming into work from out east every morning. What a bummer.I know right. :/

venture
12-05-2012, 08:10 PM
18Z GFS keeping the trend of pushing the snow accumulation further north. Some other opportunities down the road. We'll see if they stick in the next few runs.

Plutonic Panda
12-05-2012, 09:43 PM
18Z GFS keeping the trend of pushing the snow accumulation further north. Some other opportunities down the road. We'll see if they stick in the next few runs.Was that the forecast for the Sun/Mon or the big one later on?

Anonymous.
12-06-2012, 08:24 AM
Sunday/Monday event is super far north now. It looks like even Kansas will get completely left out of the show now. They are in a drought as well.


Looks like bone dry air with an extremely cold north wind is our game for this one.

venture
12-06-2012, 09:31 AM
Yeah appears models are backing away from a southern low developing and only keeping a northern one now. This will keep any snow to the upper midwest and northern lakes.

Anonymous.
12-07-2012, 09:11 AM
Sunday/Monday looks like flurries to a dusting at best.

Looking further out, it appears we will enter a pretty active weather pattern. With a significant storm showing up late next week and weekend. And an even stronger one around Christmas Day. Keep in mind this is so far out that things will definitely change, but it looks like chances of some snow will only get better the next couple weeks.

BG918
12-07-2012, 01:15 PM
Sunday/Monday looks like flurries to a dusting at best.

Looking further out, it appears we will enter a pretty active weather pattern. With a significant storm showing up late next week and weekend. And an even stronger one around Christmas Day. Keep in mind this is so far out that things will definitely change, but it looks like chances of some snow will only get better the next couple weeks.

I also noticed this in the last few GFS model runs. We'll see what happens over the next few days. The question again will be available moisture.

Easy180
12-07-2012, 11:49 PM
Accuweather has us high and dry thru New Years Eve

venture
12-08-2012, 01:59 PM
Accuweather has us high and dry thru New Years Eve

People still use them? :-P

Anyway. NAM and GFS are split on Sunday. NAM is now showing a light accumulation (around an inch) from TUL through Central OK to SW OK. GFS remains mostly dry with just some isolated light snow/flurries.

Easy180
12-08-2012, 03:53 PM
Sunday/Monday looks like flurries to a dusting at best.

Looking further out, it appears we will enter a pretty active weather pattern. With a significant storm showing up late next week and weekend. And an even stronger one around Christmas Day. Keep in mind this is so far out that things will definitely change, but it looks like chances of some snow will only get better the next couple weeks.

Seeing 50's and dry on the few sites willing to go out past 7 days

venture
12-09-2012, 06:02 PM
Still looking at a little bit of light snow tonight, mainly south of I-40. Maybe a dusting in some areas but otherwise not a big deal at all.

catch22
12-09-2012, 09:42 PM
Yay De-icing....

Ehh :(

venture
12-09-2012, 10:36 PM
Yay De-icing....

Ehh :(

Mmmm...glycol baths. Another reason why I likely won't ever go ramp side. ;)

HRRR snowfall forecast for tonight...roughly an inch or less I-40 and south. Most models are in agreement with this.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/from_jet/hrrr_dev1/2012121002/t5/acsnw_t5sfc_f11.png

blangtang
12-10-2012, 12:44 AM
Well, I just found out I'm flying thru O'Hare ORD 12/21 for the XMAS stuff, (thanks priceline) any ideas if I'll get stuck there again? ! ? I suppose there are worse hubs to get stuck in around the holidays....

Plutonic Panda
12-10-2012, 08:34 AM
This sucks! I'm starting to get a little p'd off. I WANT SNOW!!!! :/

Anonymous.
12-10-2012, 09:24 AM
This weekend's system looks like rain, no real good chance of frozen precip. Still holding out for Christmas week with colder temps and a couple storms.

BG918
12-12-2012, 07:51 AM
Looks like a chance of light showers across the state with the system that comes in this weekend. A bigger storm is showing up on the GFS for 12-22/23. That one we'll keep an eye on, still over a week out so a lot can change as we've seen many times.

venture
12-13-2012, 08:58 AM
Looks like nothing big until after Christmas Day, but that is at the end of the forecast window so it'll probably change. No real snow chances at all on the horizon. The drought lives on.

Anonymous.
12-13-2012, 09:04 AM
Yea the temperatures are just moderating way too quickly after we have a cool down, the next storm system in line doesn't have much to work with after one passes.


It's funny on this morning's runs the days after Christmas cream us with precipitation. But it looks like rain in the middle 40 degrees. Gross. Looks like another boring winter shaping up (prove me wrong climate, please).

venture
12-13-2012, 06:04 PM
It isn't just us. Family up in the great lakes are nearly 300 days now without more than a trace of snow. This is just crazy and has never been seen before (in recorded history) in those areas.

kelroy55
12-14-2012, 10:55 AM
It isn't just us. Family up in the great lakes are nearly 300 days now without more than a trace of snow. This is just crazy and has never been seen before (in recorded history) in those areas.

Hmmmm Could the climate be changing?

venture
12-14-2012, 03:40 PM
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0681_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 800
PM CST.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST OF
PLAINVIEW TEXAS TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF FORCED...LOW-TOPPED STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVER FAR ERN NM...AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACCELERATING ENE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. CLEARANCE OF
MID/UPR LVL CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO
SUFFICIENTLY STEEPEN ALONG A WIDE ENOUGH SWATH TO SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE BAND MAY FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES RAPIDLY ENE
INTO W TX. IN FURTHER SUPPORT OF STORM STRENGTHENING IS THE NEARLY
SIMULTANEOUS ARRIVAL OF STRONGER DCVA/MID LVL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF UPR TROUGH.
GIVEN 40-50 KT MEAN LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...AND SOME
STRENGTHENING OF MEAN FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVE...SETUP APPEARS TO SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE ENOUGH RISK FOR SVR
WIND GUSTS TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVE AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES BEYOND REGION OF
GREATEST DIURNAL HEATING...ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY REMAIN ACTIVE NEWD
INTO PARTS OF ERN OK/KS LATER TNGT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24045.

venture
12-14-2012, 03:41 PM
Pretty good severe squall line moving into Western OK later this evening. The entire line is mostly severe so high winds are a good bet until they start to die out.

Plutonic Panda
12-14-2012, 03:41 PM
Hmmmm Could the climate be changing?Of course it is. It always changes. About 4.4 billion years ago the Earth was nothing but lava. Now we have a beautiful life filled planet(which I believe we are causing it harm by doing certain things, but emitting carbon is not one of them). The universe and everything in it is going through constant change.

Easy180
12-14-2012, 04:01 PM
So bunch of wind and little rain?

kelroy55
12-14-2012, 05:32 PM
Of course it is. It always changes. About 4.4 billion years ago the Earth was nothing but lava. Now we have a beautiful life filled planet(which I believe we are causing it harm by doing certain things, but emitting carbon is not one of them). The universe and everything in it is going through constant change.

I was thinking of a shorter period than 4.4 billion years..... say the last hundred or so.

Plutonic Panda
12-14-2012, 06:31 PM
I was thinking of a shorter period than 4.4 billion years..... say the last hundred or so.Yessir. The climate always changes.

Bunty
12-15-2012, 12:32 AM
So bunch of wind and little rain?

Yeah, most rain amounts in the state were considerably under a half inch.

sacolton
12-17-2012, 01:26 PM
I guess we won't have a white Christmas this year. :(

kelroy55
12-17-2012, 02:13 PM
Yessir. The climate always changes.

Unlike ignorance, it stays the same.

Plutonic Panda
12-17-2012, 02:49 PM
Unlike ignorance, it stays the same.Okay buddy. :)