I think Mike may be padding his forecast.

New model runs soon. We will see where it trends. I noticed the last run it kills a New Year's Eve storm.

This is why forecasting this far out is depressing...

This is why the media needs to back off until these things actually get onshore so the upper air soundings can do their thing.

He's probably focusing on the 18Z GFS which dry slots all of Central OK but dumps 12" on Western and Eastern OK.

I'm ignoring it until I see it last 2-3 more runs.

Actually what he said was the model he was referring to was trending towards all of the activity being to the east of Oklahoma. He absolutely did not rule out the possibility of getting hammered though based on another model.

I think Mike may be padding his forecast.

New model runs soon. We will see where it trends. I noticed the last run it kills a New Year's Eve storm.


This is why forecasting this far out is depressing...

New Year's is two weeks away. We don't know what's going to happen 1 week from now.

Actually what he said was the model he was referring to was trending towards all of the activity being to the east of Oklahoma. He absolutely did not rule out the possibility of getting hammered though based on another model.

I'd love to see what he was actually looking at then. LOL

New GFS throws a huge curveball...

Putting the system into the SE US. LAME! Hoping it is a random outlying run. Seems extremely drastic after so much consistency.

New GFS throws a huge curveball...

Putting the system into the SE US. LAME! Hoping it is a random outlying run. Seems extremely drastic after so much consistency.

Ehh...its actually setting up two lows. The initial one comes out of the panhandle and moves across Oklahoma before turning NE just south of the I-44 corridor and continues due NE up until the OH/IN/MI tri-state border area. Then another area of low pressure develops along the cold front over the Gulf Coast, which is what you are seeing, and intensifies to a very significant storm. Weds evening it is a 999 MB low over SW GA, by Thursday morning it is a 975 mb low over Western VA/NC, then by Thursday evening it is at 963 mb parked near Albany, NY.

Really this isn't shocked. ECMWF hinted that a weaker storm system and kept most of the cold air north. 18Z GFS had a bit more northern storm track and the 00Z now has a track just south of 18Z but no where near as strong to pull down the cold air and pull up the moisture. Most of this model data is pretty weak though until the system is able to be sampled. That won't start until probably Saturday.

Morning tv 7 day forecasts were all pretty tame

This is my thinking after this morning's runs.

Storm is starting to show some more "oomf" for the Low across OK. However it looks to dump snow in the panhandles, then fizzle out and regroup as it crosses OK and dump more on Eastern OK and AR into MO.


This being said, it is a good thing the local media is calming down about a blizzard. At this time it is still too early.

I would wait until Sunday night forecasts to paint doomsday or not. RIght now the New Year's Eve storm is looking better. However this is how all of the models have been going this month. Shows a strong storm about a week+ out, then modifies once the event is nearer and things pan out totally different.

At this time I would say keep monitoring, but right now the trend is somewhat stable - the afternoon runs will give a good indication on if a more potent Low will be apparent here in OK (or not).

Main story today is going to be wind, dust, and fire danger. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are up (see the first page for map).

Later this afternoon/evening could see a good deal of blowing dust so visibilities could drop quite a bit.

12Z model run is processing now so we'll take a peak at next week once that's done.

New GFS continues trend towards a more potent Low. I can't stop watching these models, I want a storm so badly!

New GFS continues trend towards a more potent Low. I can't stop watching these models, I want a storm so badly!

You are going to drive yourself insane. Go outside and get some fresh air...well before you blow away later today. :)

For those wondering, 12Z GFS now has zero snow south of I-40; < 1" over the Central third along I-40; 1-3" in NW OK; and 2-5" over NE OK.

You are going to drive yourself insane. Go outside and get some fresh air...well before you blow away later today. :)

For those wondering, 12Z GFS now has zero snow south of I-40; < 1" over the Central third along I-40; 1-3" in NW OK; and 2-5" over NE OK.

Think Anonymous may need an intervention :)

12Z GFS forecast for New Years Eve storm now shows what could be a very significant ice storm (over 1.5" of accumulation). Not buying it right now, but just tossing it out there.

It looks like sand is in our forecast!

NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Amarillo, TX (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=AMA&loop=yes)

You can kinda see it low on the horizon if you look out west. I just washed my car (for rain, not for sand)!

it looks like sand is in our forecast!

nws radar image loop of composite reflectivity from amarillo, tx (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=ncr&rid=ama&loop=yes)sandstorm!!!!!!! ;)

Hazardous weather outlook, from the National Weather Service, Tulsa | Oklahoma Weather Blog (http://blog.newsok.com/weather/2012/12/19/hazardous-weather-outlook-from-the-national-weather-service-tulsa-61/)

the news is saying we are still getting winter weather next week? Confidence increasing on next week's winter storm forecast - Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com (http://www.koco.com/weather/Confidence-increasing-on-next-week-s-winter-storm-forecast/-/9845544/17836930/-/oxgxdb/-/index.html)

Short Term Update - High Wind Warning remains in effect through the overnight. Cold front is approaching from the west and will get winds roaring up to 60 mph in many places. A significant amount of dust is also blowing in with this and is covering much of Western Oklahoma now. There is also a small band of snow out in the panhandles which could drop a quick inch or two in Northern sections tonight.

Christmas Day Storm Outlook
18Z GFS evolved a bit more to a heavy snow event over the NW quarter of OK. We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out to see if it will start moving back to earlier solutions. Still looks like it'll swing and move NE up into the Lower Lakes. At that time we'll see a classic transfer of energy to a new coastal low (Nor'easter) on Thursday/Friday.

New Years Storm Outlook
18Z GFS takes the system south through Texas with some overrunning precip over OK. Looking at generally 0.5 to 1.0" of liquid with it all melted down. Looking at the air temps it might start off as a very cold rain initially but should go over to snow pretty quickly. Surface temps are going to be at or just above freezing.

The Christmas Day Storm still won't be on shore until Sunday, so a lot of volatility with the forecasts should be expected.

00Z GFS keeps with the 18Z theme. First primary low strengthens over the panhandles and then swings east just south of the Red River. It'll move out over Arkansas to the Boot Heel area of MO by Weds morning. It continues NE into Central OH and starts to transfer scenario to a new low off the Carolina coast.

Snowfall area is a little further south to I-40 again.

Mike Morgan still says there's an opportunity for "significant accumulation" :-)

Mike Morgan still says there's an opportunity for "significant accumulation" :-)Anything liiiiiiiiike.... say maybe blizzard conditions?

Anything liiiiiiiiike.... say maybe blizzard conditions?

I'll take this opportunity to point out the actual NWS definition of "Blizzard"...

Blizzard(abbrev. BLZD)- A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:


Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)

Blizzard WarningIssued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours.


Notice the absence of any accumulation requirement for a blizzard. 1 inch...16 inches...doesn't matter. :)

Anything liiiiiiiiike.... say maybe blizzard conditions?

You can have a blizzard at your house if you like. I'll pass. LOL

Strongest wind is in Central OK now. Will last for a few more hours. Gusts 45-55 mph are likely. Sustained winds should remain between 30-40 mph.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustarrows.gif?1355984826902

Strongest wind is in Central OK now. Will last for a few more hours. Gusts 45-55 mph are likely. Sustained winds should remain between 30-40 mph.

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.gustarrows.gif?1355984826902She is blowin. :)

Yea those winds last night were insane.

This morning's GFS pretty much destroys the Christmas storm. It did this once before a few days ago, but we will see if the trend continues this afternoon. But right now it looks like cold dry air.

Anything liiiiiiiiike.... say maybe blizzard conditions?

Hope so.... want to use those new tires I put on the jeep. :D

Have g-babies, daughter and her hub rolling in from se WY most/all of the 24th after 9am their time (hopefully). I will be rolling back from sw Dallas myself with youngest son late on the 24th. So if storms can manage to sit somewhere out west until Christmas day, I can be happily snowed in beginning then. Can always send the SSgt. SiL back by plane and entertain my Ames and the g-babies for an extra week should it get uglie out.

Now, if only I could get 'bama son and bride home as well. Not to be this year unfortunately. But on a brighter note, the twister last night missed his house by a mile and missed his workplace as well. Was good to hear they all fared well.

New GFS run out. Indicating a possible trend to push the system further south. (need better moisture return though, now)

12Z GFS is updated for the majority of the Christmas Day storm now. Has the system dropping from NW to SE through OK now on Christmas day through early on the 26th. Has zero snowfall in far NE and far SW OK, most of the snow is between. Accumulations 1-2 inches with higher amounts SE when the storm starts to pick up on gulf moisture. Another big change from previous runs, so just sit back and wait...I'm sure this will change another dozen times.

American just cancelled my afternoon flight to Chicago, this is going to be fun...

American just cancelled my afternoon flight to Chicago, this is going to be fun...

Yeah, ORD is running a ground delay of about 120+ minutes right now. It is going to be a rough couple of days.

Want to point this out when it comes to handling the Christmas Week Storm...



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1146 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

..SFC LOW NEARING THE WEST COAST SUN NIGHT

PREFERENCE: 12Z NAM / 12Z GFS / 00Z CMC
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVELING
THROUGH THE SRN END OF WEST COAST TROUGHING ON SUN...AND THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. THE NAM FALLS WITHIN THE SPREAD AND HAS DECENT
AGREEMENT FROM THE 12Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 12 HRS
SLOWER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS AND THE 00Z UKMET IS
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE 00Z CMC SUPPORTS THE NCEP
CLUSTER...WILL LEAN THAT WAY ATTM...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUFFERING FROM POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.

Can you be like Brian Greene when it comes to quantum physics and paint a picture for us on that?^^

Can you be like Brian Greene when it comes to quantum physics and paint a picture for us on that?^^

In non-meterological speak, its saying "Well, Forecast X says one thing. Forecast Y says another. Forecast Z is between X and Y. And none of the forecasts have really said the same thing twice."

The triggering mechanism (the "trough" in the discussion above) for all this weather hasn't even moved onshore yet, and until it does, the computer models are employing their own ideas about when and how fast it will move. Some make it move sooner, some later, and others are in between. So any given forecast you may hear is, in honesty, tied at least in part to the faith a particular weatherman has to a particular forecasting model.

See, all this winter storm stuff started cooking up a couple of days ago because the models, over several runs, had been remarkably consistent in showing a major storm next week. When forecasters start seeing different computer models repeatedly telling them the same thing over several iterations, they take notice. And, then, as Venture (and others) pointed out, a later model came along, picked up on some subtlety, and it blew the model apart. No more Epic Christmas Blizzard II. About the only thing they can report now is the inconsistency among those same models. About the best they can say is that something of some intensity probably will arrive sometime around Christmas, or thereabouts. How's that for vague? :)

In short, right now, they're pulling it out of their...ears.

:)

Dave you nailed it. LOL

They gotta trim that hair in those ears. Thanks SoonerBrian! :p

Yea that was pretty accurate. The runs are extremely inconsistent now.

However, with the storm that just swept across the Central Plains and into the midwest, I would say the GFS holds more water.

Yea that was pretty accurate. The runs are extremely inconsistent now.

However, with the storm that just swept across the Central Plains and into the midwest, I would say the GFS holds more water.

Looks like KFOR is reporting snow sometime late Christmas evening. Nothing to get excited about. :p

18Z GFS went bone dry again. It keeps the system pretty close to the same path as earlier but dries it out from OK until MS.

18Z GFS full run is done...Happy New Year? ;)

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/12/20/18/GFS_3_2012122018_F312_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png

Well, since they were predicting 10-12 with that Christmas model, I'll say ^^that^^ thing will be nada. I'll be wishing for rain cause I don't have cable at home and oSu plays their crappy bowl game at 11am NYD.

GFS just can't make up its mind. Precip has improved on this latest run over much of OK. The New Years system looks like a home-run (like christmas did this far out) - Don't hold your breath.

Yes, GFS now shows 1-5 inches across most of Oklahoma on the 26th, with 2-3 being most common. The New Year's storm hasn't loaded yet. I would love to see at least 4 inches of snow or so next week with this system!

I would rather see 4 inches of rain.

I would rather see 4 inches of rain.

Actually that would be great, if it was spread over a month. 4 inches of rain in one day would be horrible. It would be much more beneficial to have 12 inches of snowpack sit for a few weeks than that. Slowly seeping back into the ground.

Okay so this is what the great and powerful models are saying tonight.

Christmas Week Storm (GFS)
Looks like 100% snow based on forecast upper air soundings. It will start in NW OK early Christmas morning. NW quarter could see roughly 0.5 to 1" of snow by 6AM. From 6AM until 12PM precip will increase over Oklahoma, remaining dry over far SW OK and far NE OK. Looking at roughly 1-3" inches over much of the state, some isolated areas could see 4". From 12PM until 6PM snow will start to taper off from west to east. West of I-35 looks like less than an inch of additional snow. East of I-35 an additional 1 to 5 inches...increasing the closer to Fort Smith, AR. Between 6PM and 12AM Wednesday most will be out of the start except for some light snow over far eastern OK. So right now worst case OKC metro scenario appears to be 2-4". You may yawn...I'll wait. Good? Alright. Winds during this look like 15-25 mph, but really not bad.

When it comes to this forecast I think of situations where winter storms get moisture cut off by storms developing on the south end of these systems. There are going to be storms developing over the Gulf coast, so this could come into play. Also if the low doesn't strengthen enough before reaching OK, that could restrict how much moisture is pulled up and squeezed out.

So how does the GFS compare to the other medium range models? DGEX is a bit faster than the GFS. It also keeps most precip either over far western OK and also to the Southeast. of OK. ECMWF is a bit slow on everything, keep the low about 12 hours before the speed of the GFS.

NWS right now is favoring the 00Z GFS/UKMET/GEM model blend. Confidence is increasing some with this solution, but still below average.

New Years Week Storm (GFS)

Again focus of the discussion here is the GFS 00Z solution for the New Years week storm. Precip appears to start between 6AM and 6PM on the 30th. Looks like all rain during that time period which roughly 0.1 to 0.5" of rain along and south of I-44. From 6PM to 6AM Monday the 31st looking at rain continuing over most of Oklahoma. An additional 0.5 to 0.8" of rain along and south of I-44, less than a half inch north. Between 6AM to 6PM Monday the 31st heavy rain continues. 0.5 to 1" west of I-35 and 1 to 1.25" east of I-35. All liquid still. From 6PM to 6AM Tuesday Jan 1st, transition to snow occurs. Now if this verifies the ground will be very wet so actual ground accumulation will be limited. Winds will be in the 20-30 mph range during this period. If it would all stick we would be looking at 1-3" over Western OK, 2-5" over central OK, and all rain still east. After that period the storm exits quickly and there will only be some light wrap around snow over NE OK.

Not much to really compare this storm to so far out. I would take this all with a large grain of salt as I don't expect this New Years forecast to pan out exactly like this. Biggest thing is hoping for the moisture to get things damp around here. We also have a ton of cold air coming down and cold air once established doesn't move easily. If there is any snow pack after next week, then that will also play a role in how things will turn out.

Special Weather Statement:

Message summary: wintry precipitation remains possible on Christmas day through Christmas night...
Weather models continue to depict a pattern favorable for winter weather across the central and southern plains...beginning Christmas day...and ending late the day after Christmas. While there has been a consistent signal for winter weather over the last several days...it is still unclear how much snow may accumulate and where. At this time...the areas with the best chance of seeing accumulating snows will be across the northern third of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Winter weather is very difficult to predict and the forecast is likely to change several times before the holiday. If you are planning to travel across the central or southern plains for the upcoming holiday week...have a contingency plan in place...and prepare for possible weather related delays and cancellations.

From: Stillwater Weather Advisories, Watches, Warnings, Etc. (http://stillwaterweather.com/advisories.php?zone=OKC119#WL1)

I'm betting we see very little rain or snow on Christmas but I hope I'm wrong.

12Z GFS is in for the storm next week. It is keeping roughly the same track of swinging around OK and then moving up the Ohio River. I think we may finally be seeing some consistency build back in here, but still a day or two until models get a good hold of all the dynamics with it.

This morning looks like 1" or less southern 1/3rd of OK, 1-3" I-40 and south. 2-4" north of I-40 which some areas seeing 3-6" from North Central to NE OK.

I'm not really all that worried about amounts right now, just more so consistency in seeing moisture and the storm track.

Last few runs have been showing consistency into strengthening the Low as it crosses OK. Looks like we may get some decent snow out of this afterall.

these forecasts will all change tomorrow, right? ;)

12Z GFS is in for the storm next week. It is keeping roughly the same track of swinging around OK and then moving up the Ohio River. I think we may finally be seeing some consistency build back in here, but still a day or two until models get a good hold of all the dynamics with it.

This morning looks like 1" or less southern 1/3rd of OK, 1-3" I-40 and south. 2-4" north of I-40 which some areas seeing 3-6" from North Central to NE OK.

I'm not really all that worried about amounts right now, just more so consistency in seeing moisture and the storm track.

Have the models firmed up on which day it will hit?

Have the models firmed up on which day it will hit?

25th into 26th still look solid. At least that part hasn't wavered any. LOL

Meanwhile, today is a very interesting weather day. After lows in the teens this morning the temps have already soared to the low 60's. With humidity close to 10%, there must be a lot of compression in the SW wind blowing. Hopefully, no fires in the news today.

Have the models firmed up on which day it will hit?

It's too bad our weather forecasting isn't like what it is in Back to the Future 2...right on time!

NWS UPDATE:

Message summary: ...winter precipitation remains possible christmas day...
Weather forecast models continue to depict the potential for a winter storm to affect oklahoma and northern texas christmas eve night through christmas night... With the best chance on christmas day. A brief period of light wintry mix will be possible across parts of oklahoma and western north texas christmas eve night with rain across the rest of the area. The precipitation will then change over to snow on christmas. Strong winds could also lead to blowing and drifting of the snow in some areas. The snow is expected to end from west to east christmas night.

The amount of snow and where the heaviest snowfall will occur is still uncertain as the computer models continue to disagree. Some models take the track of heaviest snow across northern oklahoma...While others take it near the red river valley of southern oklahoma and northern texas. One thing is for sure...these tracks will likely change slightly over the next few days and hopefully will come into better agreement. With the variation in forecast tracks...everyone across the state of oklahoma and those across northern texas should pay close attention to refined forecasts over the weekend. If you are planning to travel across the southern plains for the upcoming holiday week... Have a contingency plan in place and prepare for weather-related delays and cancellations.

18Z came in about 10 minutes ago or so. Its pretty much sticking to the same track as the 12Z, so we might be finally getting that nailed down.

Moisture amounts continue to be the big differences. 18Z is drier than 12Z overall. They both agree on snowfall over much of Oklahoma except for the far SW portion of the state. 18Z also keeps North Central and NE OK dry...so places like Enid, Ponca, Bartlesville, etc wouldn't see much of anything with this solution. The areas in between could see a general 1-3" swath, with a section over Central OK from Chickasha up to Tulsa around 3-5".

If we were to put the 12Z and 18Z together we could say the best areas to expect snow right now would be north/east of a line from Elk City to Lawton to Wichita Falls; and then south/west of a line from Alva to Enid to Claremore to Tahlequah.

Winds still look like they'll be 15-25 mph, so enough to keep it from being a graceful snowfall.

Every other run seems to run dryer, then wetter, and on and on and on.

I think the GFS may be under estimating moisture return, right now dry air is streaming over TX and OK thanks to that system that moved through the midwest (currently in extreme N New England). Once that system dissolves out to the north, we should see some moisture come back into the picture. Right now you have to go to the extreme southern tip of TX to find where it is.

Have g-babies, daughter and her hub rolling in from se WY most/all of the 24th after 9am their time (hopefully). I will be rolling back from sw Dallas myself with youngest son late on the 24th. So if storms can manage to sit somewhere out west until Christmas day, I can be happily snowed in beginning then. Can always send the SSgt. SiL back by plane and entertain my Ames and the g-babies for an extra week should it get uglie out.

Now, if only I could get 'bama son and bride home as well. Not to be this year unfortunately. But on a brighter note, the twister last night missed his house by a mile and missed his workplace as well. Was good to hear they all fared well.

Here's hoping all your family comes in safe from the storm, Kevin. Back in 2009, all three of my kids came for Christmas from NYC. Two got stuck in motels - one half way down Turner Turnpike (snow kept blowing in their room under the door), and the other got stuck about what amounts to a fifteen minute drive from here on a regular day. The third was flying in and fifteen minutes before landing, they closed the airport so so she spent most of Christmas in Houston, trying to get here. Horrible. But at least they were all safe.

GFS is stuck on the track, like I posted earlier, and the 00Z run confirms that.

Snowfall amounts are starting to get pretty consistent as well. General area of 1-3" for most of Oklahoma except for the far north. Then pockes of 3-5" over West Central, Central, and Southeast Oklahoma. There is also indications of 5-8" over Central and far SE OK within those areas of heavier snow. Wind forecast is up slightly Central and SW OK could see winds 20-25 mph with some higher gusts.

If we see the models continue this trend, especially once the system is onshore, I would expect Winter Storm Watches to go up for nearly all of the state to get awareness to the developing situation. However, at this point I would only expect Warnings for areas with the heaviest snow and wind combinations. Winter Wx Advisories and Snow Advisories (Not Travelers Advisories you idiots at KFOR and KWTV) will be able to take care of most of the conditions the state will experience.