View Full Version : Oklahoma Weather Discussion - December 2012



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Anonymous.
12-17-2012, 03:06 PM
I guess we won't have a white Christmas this year. :(



I wouldn't place money on not having one right now. The models are trending more and more towards a winter storm Christmas Day and the following day.

Obviously things could change (like the last few systems). One thing in particular about this Christmas storm, is it was showing up many days ago - consistency is always a good sign! :]

SoonerDave
12-17-2012, 03:35 PM
I wouldn't place money on not having one right now. The models are trending more and more towards a winter storm Christmas Day and the following day.

Obviously things could change (like the last few systems). One thing in particular about this Christmas storm, is it was showing up many days ago - consistency is always a good sign! :]

Yeah, reading a few places that are starting to look at Christmas Day with a bit more intrigue. Still early, but....I think the consistency of the models is starting to draw at least a bit more attention...

ou48A
12-17-2012, 03:35 PM
The best Christmas gift of all for many Oklahoma’s would be more than a foot of very wet snow.

Anonymous.
12-17-2012, 03:37 PM
The best Christmas gift of all for many Oklahoma’s would be more than a foot of very wet snow.


See Christmas 2009 in OKC. That was amazing.

ou48A
12-17-2012, 03:46 PM
See Christmas 2009 in OKC. That was amazing.I was here.. I am hoping for a wet snow and without the wind.

Western Kansas or the high plains is where it’s at for really bad blizzards. No trees, hills, very flat, a lot of short wheat ground means that it all piles up around house and roads.
They can make what we had in 2009 look like child’s play. They really are a lot more amazing.

SoonerDave
12-17-2012, 03:47 PM
See Christmas 2009 in OKC. That was amazing.

Yeah, but I could do without the blizzard. Stranded lots of folks, messed up a lot of Christmas plans. I'd be happy with a couple of inches of nice powder that didn't imperil anyone. Now I understand how beneficial the wet snow would be for our drought, so I understand ya there 100%

OKCisOK4me
12-17-2012, 04:16 PM
See Christmas 2009 in OKC. That was amazing.

Yeah, it was so amazing that I had to have my dad come and pick me up on Christmas Day because my car was stuck in its parking spot, lol. At least he has 4 wheel drive :-)

Anonymous.
12-17-2012, 04:49 PM
Well...I guess at least from a meteorological standpoint it was amazing. The track of the Low was pretty much ideal for OKC to get the most snow possible. The stranded motorists show how truly rare it was, nobody was actually expecting that significant of a storm. The winter weather around here is usually stories of crying wolf due to the complexity of the Low's track and the volatile liquid/frozen lines that seem to always drape across central OK.


What were you sillyheads doing out in a winter storm anyways?! You are supposed to shop before the Eve. :D

Plutonic Panda
12-17-2012, 06:45 PM
Hey I like blizzards! :D

OKCisOK4me
12-17-2012, 06:55 PM
Well...I guess at least from a meteorological standpoint it was amazing. The track of the Low was pretty much ideal for OKC to get the most snow possible. The stranded motorists show how truly rare it was, nobody was actually expecting that significant of a storm. The winter weather around here is usually stories of crying wolf due to the complexity of the Low's track and the volatile liquid/frozen lines that seem to always drape across central OK.


What were you sillyheads doing out in a winter storm anyways?! You are supposed to shop before the Eve. :D

Don't forget about the notorious dry slot that always seems to kill that winter precipitation!

ou48A
12-17-2012, 08:20 PM
Gary England said that this is looking like a tough storm and that we could see 10 to 12 inches in central Oklahoma.
Any idea on the winds yet?

If we are going to get a foot with high wind, I will put up some snow fence so it doesn’t drift my street closed, again!

PS: I thought I heard NOAA started giving names to winter storms? Does this storm have a name yet?

BG918
12-17-2012, 08:56 PM
It will be interesting to watch but the models are indeed showing a significant storm from the 25th-27th.

ljbab728
12-17-2012, 10:11 PM
The best Christmas gift of all for many Oklahoma’s would be more than a foot of very wet snow.

Not if it keeps me from seeing any of my family.

Anonymous.
12-17-2012, 11:03 PM
Not if it keeps me from seeing any of my family.

This is why forecasts exist. For planning...

ljbab728
12-17-2012, 11:10 PM
This is why forecasts exist. For planning...

Planning doesn't always help that if weather prevents travel. Travel plans can't always be changed.

Ginkasa
12-17-2012, 11:38 PM
This is why forecasts exist. For planning...


We had an icestorm on Christmas something like 12 or 13 years ago. I was still a kid. We could have gone to our grandma's and stayed overnight on Christmas Eve and spent the holiday with the whole family as usual, but then we would have been stuck. Wouldn't have been a problem, but my dad had to work on the 26th. He couldn't have made it if we were stuck at grandma's. Point is, turbulent storms can be disruptive regardless of the level of planning.

ou48A
12-17-2012, 11:56 PM
Not if it keeps me from seeing any of my family.

Those who make a living from agriculture would be very happy with a heavy wet snow regardless of your plansÖ..
Many who want lower food prices will be happy too!

ljbab728
12-17-2012, 11:58 PM
Those who make a living from agriculture would be very happy with a heavy wet snow regardless of your plans…..
Many who want lower food prices will be happy too!

Well they can just pray for the snow to wait one day then. LOL
But seriously having a large snowstorm here on Christmas is going to have zero effect on our food prices so don't hang your hat on that one. That would barely be a blip on the radar for that problem. As someone who grew up on a farm I don't need any lectures about how important weather is.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 12:02 AM
Well they can just pray for the snow to wait one day then. LOL
But seriously having a large snowstorm here on Christmas is going to have zero effect on our food prices so don't hang your hat on that one. That would barely be a blip on the radar for that problem. As someone who grew up on a farm I don't need any lectures about how important weather is.Anything that puts a major dent in the drought across a broad area like they are talking about will impact the futures market.

ljbab728
12-18-2012, 12:04 AM
Anything that puts a major dent in the drought across a broad area like they are talking about will impact the futures market.

And what they're talking about for here will come nowhere close to making any kind of a dent in the drought. It wouldn't hurt but it won't affect any markets in the least. It would appeal to those who like to look at it and it would cause transportation issues and that's about all.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 12:11 AM
And what they're talking about for here will come nowhere close to making any kind of a dent in the drought. It wouldn't hurt but it won't affect any markets in the least. It would appeal to those who like to look at it and it would cause transportation issues and that's about all.

I have heard 10 to 12”.
But regardless it’s a step in the right direction and perhaps an indication of a changing weather pattern that if true would without question move the futures markets.
Also regardless….. Mother Nature doesn’t wait on us and our best plans. Weather can still be king

ljbab728
12-18-2012, 12:16 AM
I have heard 10 to 12”.
But regardless it’s a step in the right direction and perhaps an indication of a changing weather pattern that if true would without question move the futures markets.
Also regardless….. Mother Nature doesn’t wait on us and our best plans. Weather can still be king

You're absolutely correct. What will happen will happen. We don't have to like it or hope for it though. LOL

ou48A
12-18-2012, 12:19 AM
It doesn’t happen all that often this far south but winter weather can control your life and your travel plans, if you let it.
While living in far more blizzard prone areas I learned to always keep my winter travel plans very flexible and allow an extra day on either end of the trip to accommodate weather issues.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 12:35 AM
If this snow does materialize let’s hope OKC city, state of OK and others do a much better job than they did in 2009 of clearing the streets and towing off vehicles that were left in the middle of the interstates.
I believe OKC has some additional equipment. Let’s hope they have enough staff this time.

Their poor response had to have cost the area many millions of dollars in lost commerce.

venture
12-18-2012, 12:48 AM
I'm going to let this go a few more model runs before getting into it. Plus, I've been flying all day and I'm tired. :-P

SoonerDave
12-18-2012, 08:15 AM
If this snow does materialize letís hope OKC city, state of OK and others do a much better job than they did in 2009 of clearing the streets and towing off vehicles that were left in the middle of the interstates.
I believe OKC has some additional equipment. Letís hope they have enough staff this time.

Their poor response had to have cost the area many millions of dollars in lost commerce.

I can't give the city/state too much grief for their response to that storm. That was an epic monster, and there's no way it would even be considered prudent for a city/state like ours to be able to respond significantly better. Only way I could see it would be to change our winter response planning quite drastically - in a manner not consistent with what we know is our more conventional winter weather season. This may be a rough or imperfect analogy, but the idea is there - it would be like Hoboken planning for a Hurricane Sandy every year,. or Buffalo planning for an F5 tornado. You can't. You can only plan for the generally foreseeable.

Look at Dallas from a few years ago. They had a monster ice and snow event, and they're even less prepared for such things than we are. I don't even think the city of Dallas owns a literal snowplow; they just affix blades to road graders and tractors and do the best they can.

I remember that '09 blizzard well, and also remember talking to my mom about it, and she pointed out that it was one of the worst she'd ever seen. And that includes the time we spent in Buffalo, New York, where I was born, and winter storms were as regular as pancake breakfasts at the Kiwanis. She, as a native Oklahoman, typically jokes about how we react to even slight winter weather here in contrast to the realities of Buffalo, but that blizzard was....different.

I'll be very interested to hear Venture's take on all this, but I must admit my eyebrows are being raised even a week out not so much at what the TV people are saying, but at the fact that apparently lots of other weather types are getting very interested in what the models are showing for next Tuesday-Thursday, and have apparently been showing with remarkable consistency for a few days now.

Lots of time left, lots can change, but it's going to get very interesting.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 09:32 AM
Plows that are bought now if properly maintained easily pay for them self’s after one or 2 large events. Plows when properly operated and maintained can last 50 years or more. I have used 70 year old plows.

Plows are a relatively small investment that pays for its self-many times over. It pays for its self by getting commerce back up and running quicker and it saves by allowing emergency response times to be quicker. Removing the snow prevents many millions of dollars’ worth of damage to pavement.

It is foreseeable that we will have snow storms and blizzards in our state and even if they don’t happen every year the relatively small investment easily pays for its self

SoonerDave
12-18-2012, 09:54 AM
Plows that are bought now if properly maintained easily pay for them self’s after one or 2 large events. Plows when properly operated and maintained can last 50 years or more. I have used 70 year old plows.

Plows are a relatively small investment that pays for its self-many times over. It pays for its self by getting commerce back up and running quicker and it saves by allowing emergency response times to be quicker. Removing the snow prevents many millions of dollars’ worth of damage to pavement.

It is foreseeable that we will have snow storms and blizzards in our state and even if they don’t happen every year the relatively small investment easily pays for its self

Remember, it was Dallas that doesn't have the snowplows. And the relative value of the snowplows isn't in having one, its in the opportunity cost of whatever other Vitally Important Thing is competing for the same limited city/state funds. If you think of it in terms of (totally as an example) replacing worn out police cars, broken garbage trucks, updating water services, things like that, it becomes evident you have to rack and stack priorities accordingly, and then things like snowplows - no matter how valuable they are for the purpose for which they're intended - more pressing priorities necessarily prevail.

Anyway, this is getting off topic, sorry. Returning to Possible Christmas Winter Storm Discussion :)

If you follow any weather types on Twitter, it is *abuzz* right now with the models showing a potential storm next Tuesday-Wednedsay. Apprently the latest EURO model run continues to show a possible "significant winter storm" in the plains next Tues-Thu. Looks like there are two models right now - both concur on a storm next week, but one says it hits Christmas Day, the other says snow in to the OK area in the latter half of Christmas day, with the "big hit" on the 26th, then starting to move out on the 27th.

Our former local KOCO guy, Rick Mitchell, He's advising "Too early for details, but stay tuned."

There are a lot of eyeballs on this.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 10:11 AM
Remember, it was Dallas that doesn't have the snowplows. And the relative value of the snowplows isn't in having one, its in the opportunity cost of whatever other Vitally Important Thing is competing for the same limited city/state funds. If you think of it in terms of (totally as an example) replacing worn out police cars, broken garbage trucks, updating water services, things like that, it becomes evident you have to rack and stack priorities accordingly, and then things like snowplows - no matter how valuable they are for the purpose for which they're intended - more pressing priorities necessarily prevail.

Plowed roads reduce the wear and tear of police cars, garbage trucks, and prevent accidents.
Many municipalities mount plows on their garbage trucks…. we could do that too in Oklahoma.



In the long run plowed roads save money and free up money for other pressing needs in our area.

Jim Kyle
12-18-2012, 10:16 AM
Many municipalities mount plows on their garbage trucks…. we could do that too in Oklahoma.Good luck getting the contractors to do that! I don't think OKC owns a single garbage truck...

adaniel
12-18-2012, 10:36 AM
I can't give the city/state too much grief for their response to that storm. That was an epic monster, and there's no way it would even be considered prudent for a city/state like ours to be able to respond significantly better. Only way I could see it would be to change our winter response planning quite drastically - in a manner not consistent with what we know is our more conventional winter weather season. This may be a rough or imperfect analogy, but the idea is there - it would be like Hoboken planning for a Hurricane Sandy every year,. or Buffalo planning for an F5 tornado. You can't. You can only plan for the generally foreseeable.

Look at Dallas from a few years ago. They had a monster ice and snow event, and they're even less prepared for such things than we are. I don't even think the city of Dallas owns a literal snowplow; they just affix blades to road graders and tractors and do the best they can.

I remember that '09 blizzard well, and also remember talking to my mom about it, and she pointed out that it was one of the worst she'd ever seen. And that includes the time we spent in Buffalo, New York, where I was born, and winter storms were as regular as pancake breakfasts at the Kiwanis. She, as a native Oklahoman, typically jokes about how we react to even slight winter weather here in contrast to the realities of Buffalo, but that blizzard was....different.

I'll be very interested to hear Venture's take on all this, but I must admit my eyebrows are being raised even a week out not so much at what the TV people are saying, but at the fact that apparently lots of other weather types are getting very interested in what the models are showing for next Tuesday-Thursday, and have apparently been showing with remarkable consistency for a few days now.

Lots of time left, lots can change, but it's going to get very interesting.

Well said, SoonerDave.

I mean, would you expect Chicago to be prepared for an F4-F5 tornado? Yes, something like that can *technically* happen in that area, but its very rare. Likewise, when an epic blizzard not seen since in decades hits, especially with as little warning the Christmas Eve 09 storm had, its foolish to expect everything to be back to normal in 24-48 hours. Heck, the last major snowstorm to hit NYC (December 2010,) everything wasn't plowed for at least 6 days.

I will also say, with apologies for those I offend, that the lack of personal preparation for many in this state is far more troubling than anything the city does. I grew up a military brat and had to live in both Alaska and North Dakota. Everyone there knew the drill in the winter. Have a good FWD or AWD car with plenty of antifreeze and good snow tires (The truck/SUV ownership rate is far lower up there than here). Have blankets and a small shovel in the car just in case. Keep about 3 days worth of food and medicine in the house when a big storm is forecast. Most importantly, have the sense to know when its appropriate to go out and just hunker down at home with some hot cocoa and some movies until its safe to go out.

The "drill" in Oklahoma? Go to the grocery store the night before. Fight and elbow others in some post-apocalyptic scene and grab 20 loaves of bread. When the storm hits and you realize that you have nothing to go with said bread (or if you just get bored), get in your giant SUV or lifted truck with bald tires, conditions be damned, and go see if there's a Wal Mart open. Pray to God you don't get stranded/stuck and if you do, hope that there's an even bigger idiot with a bigger truck/SUV who can tow you out. When you finally get home and have to stay in the house for an extra day or 2, complain loudly about being stuck inside, how terrible the plowing is, how you trudged through the snow barefoot when you were a kid, how "weak" everyone is, etc. etc.

The sad thing is I am only slightly exaggerating, and in all seriousness, I am really surprised that more people have not perished during previous bouts of winter weather.

Fortunately, I will be in South Texas for Christmas, so I will get to miss out on all the fun. I was actually ready to call BS on the coming snow; however, the guy on the youtube video clip below tends to know his stuff pretty well and is forecasting a pretty significant snow event:

Major winter storm COULD develop next week!!!!!!! - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbasdh-SdnA)

SoonerDave
12-18-2012, 10:37 AM
NWS has issued some preliminary guidance on next week's possible storm...emphasizing things are still too far out for precise timing, but I think things are gravitating toward a decent chance for something happening in the Plains next week...

Iowa Environmental Mesonet (http://bit.ly/V55HuG?OUN)

SoonerDave
12-18-2012, 10:51 AM
Well said, SoonerDave.

Fortunately, I will be in South Texas for Christmas, so I will get to miss out on all the fun. I was actually ready to call BS on the coming snow; however, the guy on the youtube video clip below tends to know his stuff pretty well and is forecasting a pretty significant snow event:

Major winter storm COULD develop next week!!!!!!! - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbasdh-SdnA)

Thanks, adaniel :)

The discussion on that youtube clip is VERY interesting. I think it explains, at least in part, why so many other met types are really taking notice with this storm - the fundamental change in the blocking that the one model is predicting, which then forces that storm system and the cold air south into the plains.

Next week is getting very, very interesting. Just have to keep watching, too early to get out the ice and shovels yet, of course. But that video did a nice job of providing a pretty simple explanation of the changes going on that's essentially creating this forecast scenario.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 11:06 AM
Well said, SoonerDave.

I mean, would you expect Chicago to be prepared for an F4-F5 tornado? Yes, something like that can *technically* happen in that area, but its very rare. Likewise, when an epic blizzard not seen since in decades hits, especially with as little warning the Christmas Eve 09 storm had, its foolish to expect everything to be back to normal in 24-48 hours. Heck, the last major snowstorm to hit NYC (December 2010,) everything wasn't plowed for at least 6 days.

I will also say, with apologies for those I offend, that the lack of personal preparation for many in this state is far more troubling than anything the city does. I grew up a military brat and had to live in both Alaska and North Dakota. Everyone there knew the drill in the winter. Have a good FWD or AWD car with plenty of antifreeze and good snow tires (The truck/SUV ownership rate is far lower up there than here). Have blankets and a small shovel in the car just in case. Keep about 3 days worth of food and medicine in the house when a big storm is forecast. Most importantly, have the sense to know when its appropriate to go out and just hunker down at home with some hot cocoa and some movies until its safe to go out.

The "drill" in Oklahoma? Go to the grocery store the night before. Fight and elbow others in some post-apocalyptic scene and grab 20 loaves of bread. When the storm hits and you realize that you have nothing to go with said bread (or if you just get bored), get in your giant SUV or lifted truck with bald tires, conditions be damned, and go see if there's a Wal Mart open. Pray to God you don't get stranded/stuck and if you do, hope that there's an even bigger idiot with a bigger truck/SUV who can tow you out. When you finally get home and have to stay in the house for an extra day or 2, complain loudly about being stuck inside, how terrible the plowing is, how you trudged through the snow barefoot when you were a kid, how "weak" everyone is, etc. etc.

The sad thing is I am only slightly exaggerating, and in all seriousness, I am really surprised that more people have not perished during previous bouts of winter weather.

Fortunately, I will be in South Texas for Christmas, so I will get to miss out on all the fun. I was actually ready to call BS on the coming snow; however, the guy on the youtube video clip below tends to know his stuff pretty well and is forecasting a pretty significant snow event:

Major winter storm COULD develop next week!!!!!!! - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbasdh-SdnA)

Almost all full time farmers and most longtime residents who live on the high farm plains are far more prepared than what you have described.

Virtually all farmers and much major business have their own equipment to remove snow. I know the energy company’s I worked for did. A few locations had snow mobiles, snow cats and used helicopters. Some folks still keep horses so they can get around in deep snow. One energy company I worked for paid a retainer fee for the use of horse’s which I used for few hours once, it sucked. My energy company gave each of us 2 winter survival kits for our personal vehicles. Most people I knew kept a minimum of 2 to 3 weeks’ worth of food for people, and at least that much for their animals. It was past experiences that lead to these preparations

ou48A
12-18-2012, 11:07 AM
Good luck getting the contractors to do that! I don't think OKC owns a single garbage truck...

The city of Norman owns its own garbage trucks as do many other citys in Oklahoma.
Many times during a snow event trash service is suspended with staff sent home. Mounting snow plows on garbage trucks would be a way to utilized both trained staff and equipment. It would get commerce back up and running quicker and also save money in ways that I previously mentioned.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 11:18 AM
Major winter storm COULD develop next week!!!!!!! - YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbasdh-SdnA)



Very good stuff on the Youtube link
Thanks for posting.
Keep them coming

Dubya61
12-18-2012, 11:51 AM
PS: I thought I heard NOAA started giving names to winter storms? Does this storm have a name yet?

Winter-geddon-it-on-snow-polcalypse-white-out-fury-from-Mount-Doom 2012!

venture
12-18-2012, 12:09 PM
PS: I thought I heard NOAA started giving names to winter storms? Does this storm have a name yet?

No they do not. That is the Weather Channel that is doing it themselves and the NWS does not condone/sanction the action since it has too many variables and insurance implications.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 12:13 PM
No they do not. That is the Weather Channel that is doing it themselves and the NWS does not condone/sanction the action since it has too many variables and insurance implications.

Thanks for clearing that up

SoonerDave
12-18-2012, 12:30 PM
Winter-geddon-it-on-snow-polcalypse-white-out-fury-from-Mount-Doom 2012!

Love it.

OKCisOK4me
12-18-2012, 12:56 PM
Come on dry slot!

Anonymous.
12-18-2012, 01:20 PM
Models look to be pushing a 26 and 27 event (when everyone returns to work). Now my eyes are looking @ New Year's storm also. It looks to clobber OK just days later. This will be especially true if we get measurable snow from the first storm as it will provide the 'refrigerator' effect and benefit the moisture return.


Man I hate forecasting something this far out, but this is way too much fun considering last year we got to do none of this!

venture
12-18-2012, 01:22 PM
New ECMWF 12Z model data is available, it is complete departure from the previous 3 runs. GFS remains relatively consistent in forecast a major winter storms over the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Clustering everything up when you compare all the previous runs, we are looking at the Low forming/intensifying over New Mexico or West Texas Monday/Tuesday. ECMWF has it further north of WY/MT and dropping south quickly. Yesterdays 18Z, 00Z, this mornings 06Z, 12Z GFS runs and the 00Z ECMWF run yesterday all cluster the tracks around the Red River Valley and then moving Northeast into the Lakes. The outlier being the 12Z ECMWF today which takes the low from WY due east into the Lower Lakes region.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/disc/winterstorm2012track.png

We could get into forecast amounts and all that, but really it isn't going to matter until we get some additional model runs. The change by ECMWF is concerning because it could be picking up on something. GFS did go further north on this latest run, so we need to evaluate that as well. There might also be multiple rounds of 6" inch snowfall over some areas of Oklahoma.

I would stay alert at this point but don't fall over the edge just yet on hysteria. :)

OKCisOK4me
12-18-2012, 01:43 PM
So Sunday/Christmas Eve is going to be a better forecast model, and safer bet if our local weather forecasters are going to scare and prepare everyone....Sunday? Cause I don't think that the grocery stores are open on Christmas Eve. I'll do my grocery shopping on Saturday.

SoonerDave
12-18-2012, 01:56 PM
New ECMWF 12Z model data is available, it is complete departure from the previous 3 runs. GFS remains relatively consistent in forecast a major winter storms over the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Clustering everything up when you compare all the previous runs, we are looking at the Low forming/intensifying over New Mexico or West Texas Monday/Tuesday. ECMWF has it further north of WY/MT and dropping south quickly. Yesterdays 18Z, 00Z, this mornings 06Z, 12Z GFS runs and the 00Z ECMWF run yesterday all cluster the tracks around the Red River Valley and then moving Northeast into the Lakes. The outlier being the 12Z ECMWF today which takes the low from WY due east into the Lower Lakes region.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/disc/winterstorm2012track.png

We could get into forecast amounts and all that, but really it isn't going to matter until we get some additional model runs. The change by ECMWF is concerning because it could be picking up on something. GFS did go further north on this latest run, so we need to evaluate that as well. There might also be multiple rounds of 6" inch snowfall over some areas of Oklahoma.

I would stay alert at this point but don't fall over the edge just yet on hysteria. :)

Venture, I was watching one met video earlier today that discussed the GFS model having the storm move toward the Great Lakes. This particular commenter emphatically disagreed with that model due to the blocking pattern that was emerging in NE US from the Euro model, and thus said the storm would push south and east, not through the Lakes, as a result of the blocking. Bottom line, the guy was very skeptical of the GFS in the current scenario.

Any thoughts?

venture
12-18-2012, 01:57 PM
So Sunday/Christmas Eve is going to be a better forecast model, and safer bet if our local weather forecasters are going to scare and prepare everyone....Sunday? Cause I don't think that the grocery stores are open on Christmas Eve. I'll do my grocery shopping on Saturday.

Yeah, this thing won't be onshore for another few days so we won't get more accurate forecasts until then. However, consistency is good but that new ECMWF just throws a fly in things for confidence.

If we look at the 12Z GFS precip forecast we'll start to see moisture move in Tuesday afternoon. Could see some heavy rain initially over much of Oklahoma, whereas NW OK could be mostly snow. Wednesday evening cold air will move in as the low moves into Eastern OK and will change everything to snow. Still looking at some heavy snow NW, moderate in Central sections. It'll taper off by Thursday evening.

Next round of snow moves in New Years Eve (auto hockey + alcohol = nonstop news coverage!). It will move out quickly on New Years Day. This looks like it'll be 100% snow and precip values are around 0.70-0.80" for Central OK. So that would definitely be a decent snowfall for us again if you do the typical 10 to 1 ratio (it might be higher since all levels of the atmosphere will be well below freezing).

This could be huge in helping with fire season kicking into full swing and helping with the drought.

venture
12-18-2012, 02:01 PM
Venture, I was watching one met video earlier today that discussed the GFS model having the storm move toward the Great Lakes. This particular commenter emphatically disagreed with that model due to the blocking pattern that was emerging in NE US from the Euro model, and thus said the storm would push south and east, not through the Lakes, as a result of the blocking. Bottom line, the guy was very skeptical of the GFS in the current scenario.

Any thoughts?

In my little drawing which is pretty bad (LOL), the red line is the ECMWF and the blue is the GFS. I'm not really sure why he would make that comment since the ECMWF is showing almost the exact same thing...and it is the Euro model for those that don't know. There is going to be a lot that needs to wash out though. I'm not committing to anything yet because we've seen these monster storms predicted just evaporate even after 8 consistent runs.

ou48A
12-18-2012, 02:03 PM
This could be a life threating event.


National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ025&warncounty=OKC109&firewxzone=OKZ025&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement)


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012


... A LARGE WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A RAPIDLY EVOLVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE. THE STORM THEN APPEARS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS... OKLAHOMA... AND TEXAS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM... SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE WHITE OUT OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. BE PREPARED TO HAVE YOUR TRAVEL ARRANGEMENTS CANCELLED OR CHANGED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK.

SoonerDave
12-18-2012, 02:05 PM
In my little drawing which is pretty bad (LOL), the red line is the ECMWF and the blue is the GFS. I'm not really sure why he would make that comment since the ECMWF is showing almost the exact same thing...and it is the Euro model for those that don't know. There is going to be a lot that needs to wash out though. I'm not committing to anything yet because we've seen these monster storms predicted just evaporate even after 8 consistent runs.

Good enough :) Thanks, Venture. I am not on board with any hysteria either, but watching the stuff this far out is fascinating. Always trying to learn!

venture
12-18-2012, 02:15 PM
This could be a life threating event.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=OKZ025&warncounty=OKC109&firewxzone=OKZ025&local_place1=&product1=Special+Weather+Statement)

Issued by The National Weather Service
Oklahoma City, OK

Tue, Dec 18, 2012, 10:06 AM CST
Updated Dec 18, 2012, 1:40pm CST
... A LARGE WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A RAPIDLY EVOLVING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK NEAR CHRISTMAS EVE. THE STORM THEN APPEARS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS... OKLAHOMA... AND TEXAS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM... SOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE WHITE OUT OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. BE PREPARED TO HAVE YOUR TRAVEL ARRANGEMENTS CANCELLED OR CHANGED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY. MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE LATER THIS WEEK.

Where is this Oklahoma City, OK office of the NWS? :-P



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

Anyway. They have to warn of the possiblities since the media is going crazy already. ECMWF 12Z is further north, GFS 12Z trended north. Not to mention the ECMWF is lightnight fast as well. Monday AM the storm is over the Panhandle, Tuesday AM it is over Central IL. It is running almost a good 36 hours faster than the GFS right now. We need to see more model runs to figure out which is correct in whatever it is picking up on.

OKCisOK4me
12-18-2012, 02:17 PM
Well, on the off chance that this first storm turns into a world ender, 10-12 inches with our current ground temps has got to be pretty darn impressive and actually would end up being more snow then what they'd end up forecasting right? What do you think the ground temps are now? 45-50 degrees?

venture
12-18-2012, 03:10 PM
Well, on the off chance that this first storm turns into a world ender, 10-12 inches with our current ground temps has got to be pretty darn impressive and actually would end up being more snow then what they'd end up forecasting right? What do you think the ground temps are now? 45-50 degrees?

http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/mesonet/maps/realtime/current.TS05.grad.png

OKCisOK4me
12-18-2012, 03:50 PM
Yeah, I forget about the silly Oklahoma Mesonet website and the graphics you post at the front of each monthly thread. Pretty much nailed my guess based on the regions to be affected by this potential storm.

venture
12-18-2012, 04:01 PM
From NWS Norman's afternoon discussion:


THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME BETWEEN CHRISTMAS DAY AND THE DAY AFTER. UP UNTIL THIS MORNING...MODELS HAD BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN EVOLVING WINTER STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE POPS (http://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=POPS) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW...THOUGH EXACT ACCUMULATIONS AND LOCATIONS REMAIN UNKNOWN.

Pretty much exactly what I was pointing out earlier today. That stupid ECMWF flopping and GFS trending a bit more north took away the slam dunk. :) The 18Z GFS is loading in now and should have next week's forecast done in about an hour.

OKCisOK4me
12-18-2012, 04:38 PM
Yeah, so for everyone that's twerked up about this and a New Year's Eve storm need to just chill out.. both storms are both waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far out.

jn1780
12-18-2012, 05:23 PM
Yeah, so for everyone that's twerked up about this and a New Year's Eve storm need to just chill out.. both storms are both waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far out.

Pfft......Everyone knows that there will be no snow because the atmosphere will get burn off by the sun this Friday. lol

Plutonic Panda
12-18-2012, 08:23 PM
Winter storm, snow possible for Oklahoma on Christmas | NewsOK.com (http://newsok.com/winter-storm-snow-possible-for-oklahoma-on-christmas/article/3738657)

http://www.news9.com/story/20373351/threat-increasing-of-major-winter-storm-in-oklahoma

ou48A
12-18-2012, 10:23 PM
Mike Morgan CH 4 indicates that right now he doesn’t think the Christmas storm was going to be a big deal for Oklahoma…… but stay tuned

Anonymous.
12-18-2012, 10:35 PM
I think Mike may be padding his forecast.

New model runs soon. We will see where it trends. I noticed the last run it kills a New Year's Eve storm.


This is why forecasting this far out is depressing...

venture
12-18-2012, 10:39 PM
Mike Morgan CH 4 indicates that right now he doesn’t think the Christmas storm was going to be a big deal for Oklahoma…… but stay tuned

He's probably focusing on the 18Z GFS which dry slots all of Central OK but dumps 12" on Western and Eastern OK.

I'm ignoring it until I see it last 2-3 more runs.